A clean research hub for tracking which teams materially overachieved or underachieved in late-game win expectation, and how those baskets performed against win totals and playoff markets the following season.
Results since inception
Total basket result
Results since inception
Total basket result
The current page separates the historical research into two baskets: teams that overachieved in 4th quarter win expectation and teams that underachieved. Each basket is then tracked through next-season alt win totals and playoff markets.
Teams flagged as overachievers heading into the 2025 season, with alt-under and miss-playoffs results.
Teams flagged as underachievers heading into the 2025 season, with alt-over and make-playoffs results.
For the 11th straight season and 13 of the last 14, the overachiever basket delivered positive returns, though barely in 2025. The Chiefs going well under their win total and missing the playoffs were the biggest winners of the basket. The Lions missing the playoffs also helped, although their Week 18 win in Chicago was the difference between a larger ROI and the final result.
2025 was the first season since 2014 where the alternative win total unders returned a loss.
The underachiever basket returned a second straight positive outcome. It has been choppy over the last decade, with enormous positive outcomes, including +17.8 units in 2017-2018, as well as a difficult stretch of -14.1 units between 2019-2023.
Because this basket often includes longer-shot playoff prices, the year-to-year results can be much more volatile.
The long-term returns remain the backbone of the research. Overachievers have been more stable, while underachievers have produced more volatility but still show a positive aggregate result.
Alt-line unders, miss-playoffs market results, total units and ROI.
Alt-line overs, make-playoffs market results, total units and ROI.
Current 2026 qualifiers are shown with market prices checked on August 4, 2026. Odds reflect the better listed price between DraftKings and FanDuel at the timestamp on the images.
Alt-under and miss-playoffs basket
Alt-over and make-playoffs basket
Use the qualifiers as one input when assessing teams whose prior-year record may have been inflated or depressed by late-game outcomes.
The underachiever basket can include longer-shot playoff markets, making yearly outcomes more volatile than the overachiever basket.
The research is most useful when paired with market prices, schedule strength, roster changes, injuries, and offseason movement.
The original page links to the detailed background behind the 4th Quarter Win % Over Expected research process.
ClevAnalytics is not an online gambling operator or gambling site of any kind. This site provides information for entertainment purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 18 and over only.
