4th Quarter Win % Over Expectation Results

Click HERE For information on the methodology and background behind the process of our 4th Quarter Win % over Expectation research.


2023 Results Summary:

The Following Teams were considered Overachievers by our metric in 2022 heading into the 2023 season:

2023 Overachiever Results:

For the 9th straight season and 11 of the last 12, this basket of overachievers delivered positive returns. Only two teams from this basket made the Playoffs (BUF, TB) and both needed the final game of the season to get in. Certainly injuries derailed the seasons for CIN, LAC and MIN but all three were underperforming expectations and .500 or below prior to their QB going down.




The Following Teams were considered Underachievers by our metric in 2022 heading into 2023


2023 Underachiever Results: 

After excellent 2022 results for this basket of teams, 2023 ended as the single worst season since 2006 in terms of unit results. The alternative overs did reasonable (-0.6) but the To Make the Playoffs wagers were atrocious (-7.4). CHI, IND and NO all just missed the Playoffs by one game and the Colts (+350) were literally one dropped reception on 4th down late in their finale vs HOU from paying off nicely. NO needed help from CAR in week 18 to get in and did not get it, instead losing the NFC South division on a tie breaker with TB.

On the bright side, the two other worst single seasons with these basket of underachieving teams came in 2009 (-6.4 units) and 2015 (-7.2 units). The next three seasons in both instances, were all positive results and demonstrated a string of outsized returns (+21.7 units from 2010-2012 and +20.4 units from 2016-2018). The hope is 2023 was another trough and we get a multi year positive run of results.

2024 Team Qualifiers

 The Overachievers


The Underachievers