ATS Pick’em Track Record
(picking every 2024 NFL regular season and Playoff game against the spread using the Circa Millions weekly frozen lines)
Clevta has been handicapping the NFL including matchups, stats and league-wide trends for over 20 years. His knowledge has been on display on twitter for over a decade and has been fully transparent with his results. Using a background in Finance and marrying that with a deep knowledge of the NFL, he has strived to uncover value opportunities. In addition, Clevta has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest, Circa Millions and Survivor contests. Since entering his first ATS contest in 2013, he has generated a 55% win record on nearly 1,000 selections. In the last 10 years, he has produced four separate seasons finishing 60% or better ATS and placing 94th percentile or higher among thousands of contestants. Clevta is very thoughtful in his process and strives to make the most informed decisions he can.
If you subscribe to the NFL Premium package and are doing so just for “picks” please do not subscribe. No results are guaranteed to be profitable and the only goal of the site is to supply readers with deep NFL analysis to help you make more informed and thoughtful decisions while helping develop your own process. We take this very seriously and the goal is to help subscribers become smarter about evaluating the NFL in whatever capacity the subscriber wants or needs. The value from the site are never “picks” but instead the abundance of data and analysis to help you become smarter about the NFL.
(picking every 2024 NFL regular season and Playoff game against the spread using the Circa Millions weekly frozen lines)
* Note: Track record above includes ATS contest record when entered. Did not enter 2020 contest due to Covid, but instead posted weekly picks on twitter (correctly hit 54%). While Clevta’s process is similar to in years past, please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
2022 Regular Season NFL ATS/Totals/Props: 52%, +8.1 units, +3.1% ROI
Beat closing line in 63% of all sides and 71% of all games involving key numbers
Only 11% of all personal wagers produced negative CLV in 2022
Player props were Clevta’s most profitable personal category in 2022: 62%, +28.1% ROI
Totals were Clevta’s worst performing “sector” in 2022: 43%, -13.7% ROI
2022 Playoffs ATS/Totals/Props : -14.5 units
2022 Posted NFL Draft Props: +10.6 units
2022 Playable Futures: +6.5 units
Beat closing line in 68% of ATS sides involving the key numbers of 3, 7, 10 and 14 in 2021
Only 29% of all personal plays produced negative CLV in 2021
Week | Wager | Type | Spread | Juice | Source | Risk | To Win | W/L | Units W/L | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | JAX/MIA | Over | 49 | -112 | DK | -1.12 | 1.00 | L | -1.12 | ||
1 | CLE/DAL | Under | 43 | -111 | DK | -1.11 | 1.00 | L | -1.11 | ||
1 | CHI/TEN | Over | 43 | -110 | BOL | -1.10 | 1.00 | L | -1.10 | ||
1 | WAS | ATS | +3.5 | -115 | FD | -1.15 | 1.00 | L | -1.15 | ||
1 | CAR | ATS | +4.5 | -112 | DK | -1.12 | 1.00 | L | -1.12 | ||
1 | SF | ATS | -3.5 | -117 | BOL | -1.17 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
1 | ATL TT U | TT U | 23.5 | -130 | BOL | -1.30 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
1 | BAL/KC 1H U | 1H U | 23.5 | -116 | Bookmaker | -1.16 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
1 | Bateman first TD | Alt Prop | 2600 | BOL | -0.10 | 2.60 | L | -0.10 | |||
1 | Justice Hill over rec yds | Prop | 10.5 | -114 | BOL | -0.57 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
1 | MIN | ATS | -1.5 | -111 | BOL | -1.11 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
1 | Pollard over rec yds | Prop | 10.5 | -120 | DK | -0.60 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
1 | Jefferson over rec yds | Prop | 83.5 | -115 | DK | -0.86 | 0.75 | L | -0.86 | ||
1 | Lawrence over pass yds | Prop | 253.5 | -110 | FD | -0.55 | 0.50 | L | -0.55 | ||
1 | Lawrence most pass yds | Alt Prop | 1300 | FD | -0.10 | 1.30 | L | -0.10 | |||
1 | Swift most rush yds | Alt Prop | 3700 | FD | -0.10 | 3.70 | L | -0.10 | |||
1 | Kyler over rush yds | Prop | 32.5 | -110 | BOL | -0.55 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
1 | Foreman first td | Alt Prop | 2200 | DK | -0.10 | 2.20 | L | -0.10 | |||
1 | Montgomery 1st TD | Alt Prop | 550 | DK | -0.20 | 1.10 | L | -0.20 | |||
1 | Montgomery over rush yds | Prop | 57.5 | -117 | Bookmaker | -0.88 | 0.75 | W | +0.75 | ||
2 | DET | ATS | -6 | -112 | DK | -1.12 | 1.00 | L | -1.12 | ||
2 | CLE | ATS | 3.5 | -120 | BOL | -1.20 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
2 | Las Vegas | ATS | 10 | -120 | BOL | -1.20 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
2 | TEN | ATS | 3.5 | -110 | DK | -1.65 | 1.50 | L | -1.65 | ||
2 | MIA/BUF 1H Under | 1H U | 24 | -117 | Bookmaker | -1.17 | 1.00 | L | -1.17 | ||
2 | Jonnu Rec Yds Over | Prop | 14.5 | -115 | DK | -0.58 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
2 | Jonnu 1st TD | Alt Prop | 2200 | FD | -0.10 | 2.20 | L | -0.10 | |||
2 | NYG | ATS | 1.5 | -106 | BOL | -1.06 | 1.00 | L | -1.06 | ||
2 | IND | ATS | -2.5 | -118 | DK | -1.18 | 1.00 | L | -1.18 | ||
2 | PHI/ATL under | Under | 47 | -115 | BOL | -1.15 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
2 | Kamara over rec yds | Prop | 29.5 | -110 | FD | -0.55 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
2 | Kamara alt over rec yds | Alt Prop | 50 | 255 | DK | -0.20 | 0.51 | W | +0.51 | ||
2 | Amon-Ra over rec yds | Prop | 83.5 | -115 | Bookmaker | -0.86 | 0.75 | W | +0.75 | ||
2 | Pollard over rush yds | Prop | 51.5 | -115 | DK | -0.58 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
2 | Parkinson Over rec yds | Prop | 30.5 | -115 | DK | -0.86 | 0.75 | L | -0.86 | ||
2 | Mixon anytime TD | Prop | -130 | DK | -0.98 | 0.75 | L | -0.98 | |||
2 | Mixon 1st TD | Alt Prop | 460 | FD | -0.25 | 1.15 | L | -0.25 | |||
2 | Bijan rec yds over | Prop | 31.5 | -111 | Bookmaker | -0.83 | 0.75 | L | -0.83 | ||
2 | Bijan alt rec yds over | Alt Prop | 50+ | 270 | FD | -0.20 | 0.54 | L | -0.20 | ||
3 | CIN/WAS over | Over | 48 | -110 | BOL | -1.65 | 1.50 | W | +1.50 | ||
3 | Tampa | ATS | -6.5 | -115 | Bookmaker | -1.73 | 1.50 | L | -1.73 | ||
3 | NYJ | ATS | -6 | -110 | BOL | -1.10 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
3 | BAL | ATS | -1 | -108 | Bookmaker | -1.08 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
3 | Eagles | ATS | 3 | -121 | Bookmaker | -1.21 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
3 | Rams | ATS | 7 | -125 | BOL | -1.25 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
3 | TEN | ATS | -2.5 | -118 | DK | -1.18 | 1.00 | L | -1.18 | ||
3 | DEN (TB buyback) | ATS | 6.5 | -109 | BOL | -0.55 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
3 | ARI/DET under | Under | 52 | -110 | BOL | -1.10 | 1.00 | W | +1.00 | ||
3 | Amari over rec yards | Prop | 49.5 | -120 | DK | -0.60 | 0.50 | W | +0.50 | ||
3 | Amari alt over rec yards | Alt Prop | 110 | 850 | FD | -0.10 | 0.85 | L | -0.10 | ||
3 | Nailor over rec yards | Prop | 36.5 | -112 | BOL | -0.56 | 0.50 | L | -0.56 | ||
3 | Z White over rush yards | Alt Prop | 63.5 | -114 | BOL | -0.57 | 0.50 | L | -0.57 | ||
3 | Z White most rush yards | Prop | 2700 | FD | -0.10 | 2.70 | L | -0.10 | |||
3 | Henry over rush yards | Prop | 69.5 | -120 | DK | -0.90 | 0.75 | W | +0.75 | ||
3 | Mcloud 1st TD | Alt Prop | 2100 | BOL | -0.10 | 2.10 | L | -0.10 | |||
4 | Kyler most pass yards | Alt Prop | 1500 | FD | -0.20 | 3.00 | L | -0.2 | |||
4 | MVS 1st TD | Alt Prop | 4400 | FD | -0.10 | 4.40 | L | -0.1 | |||
4 | Andrews 1st TD | Alt Prop | 1700 | FD | -0.10 | 1.70 | L | -0.1 | |||
4 | Jacksonville | ATS | +7 | -115 | DK | -1.73 | 1.50 | W | +1.5 | ||
4 | Atlanta | ATS | -1.5 | -108 | Bookmaker | -1.08 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
4 | Cincinnati | ATS | -4.5 | -110 | BOL | -1.10 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
4 | CLE | ATS | -1.5 | -110 | FD | -1.10 | 1.00 | L | -1.1 | ||
4 | CHI/SF ML | ML Parlay | -105 | DK | -1.05 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | |||
4 | Wa'ndale over rec yds | Prop | 36.5 | -110 | DK | -0.83 | 0.75 | W | +0.8 | ||
4 | Pitts rec yards over | Prop | 36.5 | -113 | FD | -0.57 | 0.50 | L | -0.6 | ||
4 | Conklin over rec yards | Prop | 25.5 | -115 | DK | -0.58 | 0.50 | L | -0.6 | ||
4 | Darnold over pass att | Prop | 31.5 | -114 | FD | -0.86 | 0.75 | L | -0.9 | ||
4 | Josh Allen over pass yards | Prop | 234.5 | -110 | DK | -0.83 | 0.75 | L | -0.8 | ||
4 | KC -2.5/TB +8.5 | Tease | -120 | BOL | -1.80 | 1.50 | W | +1.5 | |||
4 | ARI Team Total | TT O | 26.5 | -120 | FD | -1.20 | 1.00 | L | -1.2 | ||
4 | Achane over rush yards | Prop | 61.5 | -115 | DK | -0.86 | 0.75 | L | -0.9 | ||
4 | Jonnu 1st TD | Alt Prop | 2500 | DK | -0.10 | 2.50 | L | -0.1 | |||
4 | Jonnu Any Time TD | Alt Prop | 600 | DK | -0.20 | 1.20 | L | -0.2 | |||
4 | Montgomery over rush yds | Prop | 63.5 | -110 | FD | -0.55 | 0.50 | L | -0.6 | ||
4 | Montgomery alt over rush | Alt Prop | 100 | 340 | FD | -0.10 | 0.34 | L | -0.1 | ||
5 | Harris 1st TD | Alt Prop | 500 | BOL | -0.20 | 1.00 | L | -0.2 | |||
5 | Mundt 1st TD | Alt Prop | 2700 | FD | -0.10 | 2.70 | L | -0.1 | |||
5 | Bo Melton alt over rec yds | Alt Prop | 100+ | 1400 | FD | -0.10 | 1.40 | L | -0.1 | ||
5 | Bo Melton 1st TD | Alt Prop | 1800 | BOL | -0.10 | 1.80 | L | -0.1 | |||
5 | Johnson 1st TD | Alt Prop | 2200 | DK | -0.10 | 2.20 | L | -0.1 | |||
5 | CLE | ATS | 3.5 | -115 | DK | -1.73 | 1.50 | L | -1.7 | ||
5 | Pittsburgh | ATS | -2.5 | -110 | DK | -1.10 | 1.00 | L | -1.1 | ||
5 | Pittsburgh ATS Add | ATS | -2.5 | -111 | Bookmaker | -0.56 | 0.50 | L | -0.6 | ||
5 | Atlanta | ATS | -1.5 | -110 | DK | -1.10 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
5 | Arizona | ATS | 7.5 | -115 | DK | -1.15 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
5 | MIA | ATS | ML | -110 | DK | -1.10 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
5 | Aaron Jones rec yds over | Prop | 25.5 | -110 | FD | -0.83 | 0.75 | L | -0.8 | ||
5 | Bo Melton over rec yds | Prop | 30.5 | -110 | FD | -0.83 | 0.75 | L | -0.8 | ||
5 | Harris over rush yards | Prop | 68.5 | -131 | Bookmaker | -0.66 | 0.50 | L | -0.7 | ||
5 | Samuel over rec yards | Prop | 32.5 | -114 | BOL | -0.57 | 0.50 | L | -0.6 | ||
5 | Burrow over pass atts | Prop | 35.5 | -120 | DK | -0.90 | 0.75 | W | +0.8 | ||
5 | J Johnson over rec yds | Prop | 20.5 | -120 | DK | -0.90 | 0.75 | W | +0.8 | ||
5 | GB Team Total Over | TT O | 26.5 | -110 | FD | -1.10 | 1.00 | L | -1.1 | ||
6 | SF | ATS | -3 | -115 | DK | -1.15 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
6 | Dallas | ATS | 3.5 | -120 | BOL | -1.20 | 1.00 | L | -1.2 | ||
6 | Philly | ATS | -8.5 | -110 | DK | -1.10 | 1.00 | L | -1.1 | ||
6 | NYJ | ATS | 2.5 | -108 | BOL | -1.08 | 1.00 | ||||
6 | Arizona | ATS | 5.5 | -114 | Bookmaker | -1.14 | 1.00 | L | -1.1 | ||
6 | Baltimore | ATS | -6.5 | -115 | BOL | -1.15 | 1.00 | W | +1.0 | ||
6 | Kittle over rec yards | ATS | 49.5 | -120 | DK | -0.60 | 0.50 | W | +0.5 | ||
6 | Kittle 1st TD | Alt Prop | 1000 | DK | -0.10 | 1.00 | L | -0.1 | |||
6 | Jacksonville | ATS | -0.5 | 102 | Bookmaker | -1.00 | 1.02 | L | -1.0 | ||
6 | Carolina | ATS | 6.5 | -118 | BOL | -1.18 | 1.00 | L | -1.2 | ||
6 | Engram 1st TD | Alt Prop | 1500 | BOL | -0.10 | 1.50 | L | -0.1 | |||
6 | Henry over rush yards | Prop | 87.5 | -110 | FD | -0.55 | 0.50 | W | +0.5 | ||
6 | McBride over rec yards | Prop | 49.5 | -115 | BOL | -0.58 | 0.50 | W | +0.5 | ||
6 | Tolbert over rec yards | Prop | 46.5 | -110 | FD | -0.55 | 0.50 | L | -0.6 | ||
6 | Tolbert alt over | Alt Prop | 100 | 610 | FD | -0.20 | 1.22 | L | -0.2 | ||
6 | Moss rush yards over | Prop | 42.5 | -110 | DK | -0.83 | 0.75 | L | -0.8 |
Contest Track Record Source:
https://fantasysupercontest.com/search?q=Clevta2