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4th Quarter Win % Over Expectation Results

Click HERE For information on the methodology and background behind the process of our 4th Quarter Win % over Expectation research.

 

2024 Results Summary:

2024 Overachiever Results:

The Following Teams were considered Overachievers by our metric in 2023 heading into the 2024 season:

 

For the 10th straight season and 12 of the last 13, this basket of overachievers delivered positive returns. Only three teams from this basket of seven made the Playoffs and two teams (CIN and NYJ) were decent sized favorites to make the Playoffs and did not. The Jets and Browns were a cakewalk alt under and to miss the Playoffs as they finished with a combined eight wins.

 

2024 Underachiever Results: 

The Following Teams were considered Underachievers by our metric in 2023 heading into 2024:

 

After poor results in 2023, which was the single worst results since we started tracking in 2006, 2024 was back in the positive.

2025 Team Qualifiers

 The Overachievers:

 

 

For a better perspective on where I personally am lower on some of these teams above, please check out my NFL Preview. The Colts, Rams and Seahawks are probably the three teams on this list that coincide with my ratings on the teams and with the Rams if Stafford doesn’t make it the whole season, their under is very valuable. 

The Colts posted a rare season where they outperformed their blended 4th quarter win probabilities throughout the season at a high rate (9.6% win percentage vs expected, the 6th highest in the league) but still managed to go under their pre season win total of 8.5. There have only been 18 other teams since 02 to outperform their 4th quarter win % by at least 8% and also go under their win total. These teams have gone 4-12-2 to the over in their win total the next season and on average have lost 0.7 more games versus the prior season. Those teams like Indy with a win total of 7.5 or more, have gone over just once out of 12 opportunities. Only the 08 Panthers were able to clear their win total the next season. Based on the 4th quarter win probabilities, they should have been expected to only win six of those games, two more than expected.

 The Underachievers:

I am highest on the Titans on this list. The Titans’ underlying metrics were of a team much better than 3-14. They finished 2-6 in one score games and based on blended 4th quarter win probabilities, underperformed their win total by 1.5 games. With just not awful QB play from Cam Ward and improvement from the special teams, the Titans are a solid bet to go over their win total. The Giants have pieces of a team who can suprprise to the upside but they are expected to face the toughest schedule in the NFL.