WILDCARD PLAYOFF TRENDS/NOTES
All data since 2000 unless otherwise noted:
-
Pick the winner:
o 74% of underdogs that covered also won the game outright (avg spread of +4.5 points)
o 74% of teams that won as favorites also covered the game
-
4 of 8 underdogs of 7.5+ that covered have also won the game outright
-
First-time playoff QB vs non-first time QB are 16-34 SU and 14-35-1 ATS since 2002 (0-3 SU and ATS last year) (Daniel Jones, Tua/Skylar, Huntley? Would fit this year). For context, even the best ever like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning all lost their playoff debuts ats and outright. Tom Brady won but pushed ATS. Rookie QBs are 4-8 straight up 5-7 ATS (Brock Purdy). They combined for 13 TDs, 14 INTs and none of the 12 were able to throw for more than 288 passing yards. 8 of the 12 QBs threw for under 200 yards.
-
Unders have hit in 15 of the last 21 wildcard games and 33 of the last 52 (63%) since 2010.
-
Playoff Dome Games have gone over the total in 10 of the last 17 Wildcard games. Non dome games in the Wildcard round have gone under in 26 of the last 40 games (65%)
-
All wildcard games with a total between 43 and 49 (all of this week’s games) the Under has hit in 57% of those games.
-
Double digit wild card underdogs are 2-9 ATS historically (Miami and Seattle fit)
-
At least one underdog has won outright in 13 of past 15 years
-
Teams that won 4 or fewer games last season are 2-14 SU in wild card round (Jacksonville and NY Giants)
-
Teams with a regular season ATS win % of less than 50% (TB) is 12-6 ATS in the wildcard round as underdogs.
-
In 18 in-division Wildcard rematches, the underdog is 11-6-1 ATS. 8 of the 11 underdogs won outright and went 44% straight up overall versus an expected win % of only 33% (BAL). **Of note: dogs of 9.5+ are 0-2 ATS and SU like MIA and SEA this week.
-
Same season rematches in the playoffs (all rounds) have gone 24-15 (62%) to the over since 2015
DOGS: (47-42, 53% ATS since 2000)
-
Home Dogs 11-8 ATS (58%)
o 8 of those 11 covers were also SU wins
o 6-6-2 ATS for home dogs of 3 or less, 5-9 SU
o All 7 home dogs of <3 have stayed within 6 points (all would win a 6 point teaser leg)
o Under has hit 58% of games
-
Away Dogs 36-34 ATS (51%)
o 75% of away dogs that covered won outright (avg spread 5 points)
o Away dogs of 3 or less points are an incredible 17-6 ATS (74%) with 15 SU wins. 20/24 (83%) 3 or less dogs would have covered a teaser leg
FAVS: (42-47, 47% ATS since 2000)
Home Favs: 34-36 ATS (49%)
Away Favs: 8-11 ATS (42%)
Super Bowl Participant Trend:
The last 6 Super Bowls (all 12 participants), finished the regular season in the top 9 in pass EPA. 18 of the last 20 Super Bowl participants finished top 9 in pass EPA. One that didn’t was the 2015 Broncos (25th in pass EPA) but they were #1 in pass EPA on defense. The only other team that is an outlier in the last decade was the 2012 Ravens, who finished 15th in pass EPA on offense and 13th on defense. (KC, Buffalo, SF, CIN, Jacksonville, Miami, Philly and Dallas).
