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GAME ANALYSIS

ATS Pick Pools: GB +4.5
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
GB (O) PHI (D) PHI (O) GB (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 7 3 8 4
Explosive Pass% 1 1 8 14
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 9 2 1 8
Explosive Rush% 5 11 7 13
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 5 13 20 8
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Jordan Love Jalen Hurts
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure 17 38
OL Pressure 14 12
Opp DL Pressure 28 17
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz 31 23
Opp Blitz Rate 27 30
Team Ranks
GB PHI
Net Success 16 3
Offense Pace 30 17
Neutral Pass% 32 29
TO Margin 8 7
OFF TO EPA 14 3
DEF TO EPA 5 11
ANALYSIS
  • I probably have the least conviction in this game vs any other this weekend. I think the Eagles are capable of running the table and winning the SB (holding 17-1 to win SB from prior to the season) but they just as easily can lose todays game outright. This line is ping ponging between the dead zone of 4.5-5.5 and we have major injury questions with both QBs as well as AJ Brown and the loss of Christian Watson. Both Love and Hurts will play but I have no clue how healthy either is. I think Hurts is probably 100% but QBs historically off a concussion in their first games have performed below their baseline figures. How much does this effect his running and tush push?
  • Its well-documented that the Packers have lost to very good teams and if we exclude the weird week 18 game vs the Bears, when Love got hurt, every one of the Packers five losses came against the top three teams in the NFC- PHI, DET 2x, MIN 2x. They only lost one of those games (v DET) by more than five points and that occurred with Love playing on a sprained ankle in a driving rain storm. This is still a good Packers team that can beat anyone.
  • Both of these teams come in extremely run heavy. In fact, no team runs the ball more than the Packers. No team has run the ball (51%) more in neutral game situations than the Packers this season. Even if you exclude games with Malik Willis, it is still the most run heavy team in the league. They lean heavily on Josh Jacobs whose 301 attempts ranks 6th in the NFL. He has had mixed success on the season as he is just 23rd among RBs in success rate but ranks in the top 10 in rush yards over expected and yards after contact. 63% of his attempts have come on run inside the tackles and this Philly run defense is right at league average on ypc allowed on those inside runs on an opponent adjusted basis. The Eagles run defense really excels at limiting runs outside of the tackles (4th best in the NFL) but Jacobs should be able to attack up the middle. Will GB allow Love to actually win them a game or are they just going to continue to lean heavily on the run? With his elbow injury, nobody knows how impactful that will be today or going forward in the Playoffs so its difficult to assess how he will come out today against this elite Eagles pass defense.
  • Love finished just 15th in success rate but #1 in explosive pass rate on the season. Love was graded by PFF as the league’s 16th best QB and was only credited with the 26th highest rate of big time throws. Losing Christian Watson is a big blow as he forces defenses to respect his speed and it opens things up for the other receivers. Not sure if it would have mattered anyway considering Phillys pass defense ranks #1 in success rate and the lowest yards per attempt allowed. Rookie CBs Cooper Dejean and Quinyon Mitchell both rank inside the top 20 in PFFs coverage grade for CBs. When it comes to those Love deep shots, the Eagles have allowed the 2nd lowest EPA on throws 20+ yards in the air. Without Watson look for Jayden Reed to possibly step up and be the top deep threat. He is a smaller WR who mainly plays in the slot, but he ranks #1 on the Packers in EPA on deep targets, catch rate over expected and has generated the most average separation on his 14 20+ air yard targets. In fact, he ranks #1 among all NFL WRs in EPA on those deep throws. After a hot start he has fallen off a cliff. In his last eight games, Reed has produced just one (76 yards vs NO) game with more than 48 yards receiving and has only five deep targets in the final nine games combined. He burned the Eagles in the opener for 138 yards and 129 came on deep targets.
  • The Packers came out extremely run heavy the last time they faced a good team in Minnesota and got behind. They ran it on 50% of their offensive plays in the first half and trailed 13-3. However, vs the Lions they tried to throw it against a decimated front seven and could not do anything in their first two drives before deciding to attack on the ground on their 3rd drive, a TD drive. So not sure if LaFluer is always confident in his first few drive scripts. The Packers led by 2 at half vs Philly in the opener in Brazil. Since then GB is 0-6 ATS and has trailed in all six games vs Playoff teams in the 1H this season (DET 2x, MIN 2x, LAR, HOU) 112-44. If they want to win this game they have to come out better prepared.
  • The Eagles offense ranks top 10 in both rushing and drop back EPA. They also rank 6th in explosive play rate and have produced the leagues 2nd highest percent of drives that end inside the red zone. However, they have faced the single easiest schedule of opposing defenses by EPA. No matter the schedule, they have certainly proven to have a great OL and a bunch of weapons to beat you. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith have been banged up and missed some practice this week but should be fine. No J’aire Alexander again at CB for the Packers who has benefitted greatly from turnovers, ranking 5th in EPA generated. No team in the NFL has anywhere near the gap between success rate defending the pass (28th) and EPA (3rd) like the Packers. Excluding turnovers, they rank 31st in success rate in pass defense. They do cover the deep ball well and rank #1 in the NFL in lowest EPA allowed on 20+ air yard throws. On an opponent adjusted basis, they have allowed the highest target share to RBs out of the backfield and the lowest to WRs. They only threw the ball to RBs three times in the opener vs the Packers but maybe Saquon gets a few more looks today.
  • I think TE Dallas Goedert plays a key role today. GB is 23rd in opponent adjusted target share to TEs. Goedert has been in and out of the lineup due to injuries and if you exclude a game vs CLE when he played three snaps before getting hurt, he is averaging 55 yards per game. In the games he has played, he has faced a ton of defenses that defend TEs well and dont typically allow targets. He has only faced two defenses- LAR and TB who allow a bottom half of the league target rate like GB. Those coincided with Hurts targeting TEs, especially Goedert, at the highest rates all season for the Eagles (41% and 32%). He went for 8-7-62 vs TB and 5-4-19 vs LAR. He looked great in his return last week.
  • Jalen Hurts ranks #8 in EPA vs man coverage but 31st vs zone, the single largest gap of any QB in the Playoffs. The Packers play zone at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. From a yards per route perspective, Smith has seen the biggest jump from man to zone and he has seen the most targets on the Eagles vs zone. He has 23 receptions for 280 yards the last three games, however only 1 and some change came with Hurts. Brown is 5th in the NFL in yards per target vs zone so he may not get the same usage but when the ball is thrown to him he produces big numbers.
  • Barkley is obviously going to be a key part of this attack as well. The Packers have been excellent on runs between the tackles this season, ranking 2nd best on an opponent adjusted basis. Where they have struggled is on outside runs, ranking 24th in adjusted ypc to RBs. They need to get him outside and in space as usual and avoid plunges up the gut.
  • I think this is a fascinating game and can go either way. I think the line is a tad inflated but without knowing how hurt Love is right now and the question on Hurts’ condition following the concussion, I am hesitant to take a stand. If the Eagles jump out ahead early, as the Packers have shown to allow to good teams, then it is almost impossible to come back on this Philly team. They grind out the clock in the 4th quarter with a lead and just get into 3rd and 4th and short where they continually tush push their way into milking clock. Then when you stack the line, Barkey breaks off a back breaking run. Who wins the first half is key imo.
GAME TRENDS
INJURY ANALYSIS

Packers Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Brenton Cox Jr. DE Jan 12 Foot Questionable
Evan Williams S Jan 12 Quadriceps Questionable
Quay Walker LB Jan 12 Ankle Questionable
Zayne Anderson S Jan 18 Concussion Out
T.J. Slaton DT Jan 12 Questionable
MarShawn Lloyd RB Feb 10 Appendix Injured Reserve
Christian Watson WR Feb 10 Head Out
Andre Dillard OT Jan 12 Questionable
Jaire Alexander CB Feb 9 Knee Injured Reserve
Jordan Morgan OT Feb 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Tyler Davis TE Feb 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
AJ Dillon RB Feb 10 Neck Injured Reserve


Eagles Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Byron Young DT Jan 18 Hamstring Injured Reserve
Trevor Keegan G Jan 18 Illness Out
Jack Driscoll OT Feb 10 Ankle Injured Reserve
C.J. Uzomah TE Feb 9 Injured Reserve
Britain Covey WR Jan 26 Neck Injured Reserve
Ben VanSumeren LB Jan 18 Knee Injured Reserve
Brandon Graham DE Feb 10 Triceps Injured Reserve
James Bradberry IV CB Jan 18 Lower Leg Injured Reserve
Le'Raven Clark OT Feb 10 Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


Packers Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Romeo Doubs Dontayvion Wicks
RWR Christian Watson Malik Heath
SWR Jayden Reed Bo Melton
LT Rasheed Walker Andre Dillard
LG Elgton Jenkins
C Josh Myers Jacob Monk
RG Sean Rhyan Kadeem Telfort
RT Zach Tom Travis Glover
TE Tucker Kraft Luke Musgrave
QB Jordan Love Malik Willis
RB Josh Jacobs Emanuel Wilson
Defense
LDE Rashan Gary Lukas Van Ness
LDT T.J. Slaton Devonte Wyatt
RDT Kenny Clark Karl Brooks
RDE Kingsley Enagbare Brenton Cox Jr.
WLB Quay Walker Isaiah Mcduffie
MLB Edgerrin Cooper Ty'Ron Hopper
SLB Eric Wilson
LCB Eric Stokes Corey Ballentine
SS Xavier Mckinney Zayne Anderson
FS Javon Bullard Evan Williams
RCB Carrington Valentine Robert Rochell
NB Keisean Nixon




Eagles Depth Chart
Offense
LWR A.J. Brown Johnny Wilson
RWR Jahan Dotson
SWR Devonta Smith Ainias Smith
LT Jordan Mailata Fred Johnson
LG Landon Dickerson Tyler Steen
C Cam Jurgens Nick Gates
RG Mekhi Becton Trevor Keegan
RT Lane Johnson Jack Driscoll
TE Dallas Goedert Grant Calcaterra
QB Jalen Hurts Kenny Pickett
RB Saquon Barkley Kenneth Gainwell
Defense
DE Milton Williams Moro Ojomo
NT Jordan Davis
DT Jalen Carter Thomas Booker Iv
LOLB Nolan Smith Jr. Bryce Huff
WLB Zack Baun Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
MLB Nakobe Dean Oren Burks
ROLB Josh Sweat Jalyx Hunt
LCB Darius Slay Jr. Isaiah Rodgers
SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson Sydney Brown
FS Reed Blankenship Tristin Mccollum
RCB Quinyon Mitchell Kelee Ringo
NB Cooper Dejean Avonte Maddox