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Week 12- Free Thanksgiving Preview


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Longshot 1st TD Scorers (15-1 or higher only):

GB: Jayden Reed (18-1 DK): Just a shot on Reed who has scored in the last two games and saw three rushes last week as well with Aaron Jones injured. Gives multiple bites at the apple. The Lions secondary has been burned a lot lately and ranks 31st in success rate over the last month. He ranks 2nd on the team with 11 redzone targets.

DET: Kalif Raymond (40-1 DK): Detroit is very predictable with their TDs and the net is not wide so this is extremely unlikely. But Raymond is a versatile player who can score thru the air, on punt returns or on the ground with reverses. He has seen 1 red zone rush and 2 redzone targets in the last three games. 

WAS: Curtis Samuel (30-1 DK): Washington has scored first in the three games as the biggest underdogs- PHI 2x and SEA. Samuel avoids Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore.

DAL: Dak Prescott (15-1 DK)

SEA: Jaxon Smith Njigba (23-1 FD)

SF: Jujan Jennings (35-1 DK)

GAME ANALYSIS 

(CLICK ON MATCHUP TO EXPAND. Shaded matchups are completed)

THURSDAY 12:30 PM EST
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS (-7.5, 46.5)
TA Pick: DET -1.5/SF -1 teaser to win 1.5 units (-120)
Source: DK

ATS Pick 'Em: DET -7.5
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
GB (O) DET (D) DET (O) GB (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 13 15 11 18
Explosive Pass% 15 18 3 12
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 19 12 4 25
Explosive Rush% 31 1 11 27
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 21 12 1 22
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Jordan Love Jared Goff
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure 22 16
OL Pressure 7 17
Opp DL Pressure 7 17
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz 10 22
Opp Blitz Rate 24 9
Team Ranks
GB DET
Net Success 23 11
Offense Pace 27 11
Neutral Pass% 23 20
TO Margin 20 10
OFF TO EPA 13 14
DEF TO EPA 30 13
ANALYSIS
  • I normally would have thought about backing the Packers in this spot and keeping it pretty close if the Packers were not so decimated on a short week like this. As of Wednesday afternoon, we already know for sure that they will be without two of their best weapons on offense with both RB Aaron Jones and TE Luke Musgrave out with injuries. Musgrave isn’t as big of an issue but Jones being out really is a problem for the Green Bay offense. It’s a problem because not only is Jones one of the more versatile RBs in the NFL and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield like a wide receiver is extremely valuable but it increases the amount of touches to RB AJ Dillon, which is a terrible thing. Dillon is the 9th worst RB based on DVOA and his 3.5 ypc is as bad as it gets. Based on expected yards, Dillon has underperformed by 18% on a ypc basis against opponent expectations. He has zero explosiveness and is a complete zero in the pass game. Otherwise he’s a great running back!
  • Some of these on/off splits can be murky and not always perfect but it should be noted that the Packers offense with Jones on the field for 189 plays have generated a really solid +0.04 EPA per play, equivalent to the 10th best offense in the NFL. With Jones off the field, Green Bay’s offense falls off a cliff with a -0.04 EPA per play on over 400 snaps. That’s equivalent to the 21st ranked offense.
  • Jordan Love has played well in the last three games and ranks 6th in EPA per drop back and 10th in success rate. He is also 6th in ypa and 8th in PFF grade over that span so his stats does match the eye test. To be fair, the Rams and Chargers are two of the bottom 10 pass defenses in the NFL and Love was playing at home so the numbers are skewed a bit but nonetheless it’s progress.
  • Unfortunately, he wont have Musgrave or Jones this week plus reserve RB Emmanuel Wilson is out and #4 WR Dontayvion Wicks has a concussion and likely is out as well. Look for Patrick Taylor to get some snaps but he is bad as well so the Packers run game is going to be non-existent. Tucker Kraft, who caught a TD last week, is your new starter at TE. It’s too bad because you wish Love could have his full arsenal of weapons against a Lions defense that is quietly one of the worst in the NFL over the back half of this season. Since week 5 when they lost CB Emmanuel Moseley and after they had lost do everything in the secondary CJ Gardner Johnson, the Lions rank 25th in EPA and 31st in success rate allowed. They rank 31st in success rate on drop backs.
  • The last two weeks, Justin Herbert and Justin Fields generated their single best games all year against the Lions, from a success rate standpoint at 62% and 61%, respectively. They’ve gone four straight weeks without holding an opposing offense under their season success rate averages. I think Love will find some success on Thursday but his propensity to take the big sack and/or make a bad mistake over the middle of the field is what has really held him and this offense back from taking the leap. Playing on a short week and essentially likely to get very little in the run game, could mute some of his upside. If this was a Sunday game and not an out of routine Thursday 12:30pm game, I would have liked the Packers a bit more.
  • Love had better get off to a better start in this game than he did in the first Lions game and then he has all season, or it may be too late to battle back. Seemingly every week, Love and this offense starts slow. He ranks 30th in success rate and 25th out of 32 QBs in EPA in the first half of games. But in the 2nd half, his numbers really pick up and is 3rd in EPA and 5th in success rate. It’s really hard to come back on Detroit, who can get a lead and hold on with their run game.
  • The Lions, on the other hand, should be thanking their lucky stars that they got away with a bad game against the Bears last week. Jared Goff was awful to start the game and his three INTs were very uncharacteristic. He did a great job of checking down against the Bears prevent defense and scoring late to give the Lions the win. Something is off with Goff of late and three of his worst games all season have come in his last four games. Since week 7 he is just 17th in EPA and his ADOT is 5th lowest in the NFL as well. I can envision a scenario where the Lions are a bit more run heavy and rely on their two headed monster at RB with rookie Jamhyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
  • The Packers run defense ranks 22nd in EPA and 28th in explosive runs allowed. GB ranks 24th in ypc allowed to a set of run offenses that ranks just 23rd in all other games. They just got gashed for 355 yards and 60 carries (5.9 ypc) by two bad run offenses in the Steelers and Chargers. That was the Steelers 2nd best and Chargers best ypc game all year. The Lions also steamrolled this Packers run defense for 211 yards on 43 attempts in their first matchup. I look for Montgomery to carry the load and really lay it on this defense with Gibbs mixed in as well. In the two games since Montgomery has been back off injury and with Gibbs, Montgomery has seen 24 of 46 totals carries for a 52% share.
  • Amon Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam Laporta also give this Lions offense so many weapons to attack from. St. Brown was not healthy in their first matchup and he had his lowest receiving output of the season with just 5-56 yards. Williams caught a 32 yard TD last week and while his volume isn’t high, he has the big play potential that the Lions need.
  • The Packers defense continues to deal with major injuries as well. It feels like every week multiple starters are out and it could happen again. Namely LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Jaire Alexander and starting S Rudy Ford are hurting and may not play. With the secondary already missing CB Eric Stokes, the trade of CB Rasul Douglas to Buffalo and S Darnell Savage on IR, their depth continues to take a hit. The good news is LB Campbell did practice in full on Wednesday which is always a great sign that he can play. He has graded out as the Packers best run defender and he is the Packers red dot player making defensive calls.
  • My full season model makes this Detroit 28-20 over the Packers but I think the Lions will play a bit more conservatively with their offense and without Jones, the Packers will not be able to be consistent enough on offense to keep pace. But I also don’t feel comfortable laying a big number with a bad secondary like the Lions, who will be very susceptible to a backdoor cover so instead I think the Lions as a six point teaser leg offers an excellent opportunity. It’s a very small sample but if you teased every favorite on Thanksgiving who were between 7 and 8.5 point favorites (wong teaer range), you would have hit 86% of those legs (13/15). In general, shorter weeks favor the better teams so on just Thursday games with favorites in the 7 to 8.5 point range, 79.5% of teaser legs (35/44) would have hit since 2000.
GAME TRENDS
  • The Lions have won and covered in four straight against the Packers
  • Home favorites of 7+ are 10-5 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2000. The underdog team total has gone under the total in 11 of those 15 games.
INJURY ANALYSIS

Packers Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Darnell Savage S Nov 22 Calf Injured Reserve
Jaire Alexander CB Nov 22 Shoulder Questionable
Rudy Ford S Nov 22 Biceps Questionable
De'Vondre Campbell LB Nov 22 Neck Questionable
Josiah Deguara TE Nov 22 Hip Doubtful
AJ Dillon RB Nov 22 Groin Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks WR Nov 22 Concussion/Knee Questionable
Aaron Jones RB Nov 22 Out
Emanuel Wilson RB Nov 22 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Luke Musgrave TE Nov 22 Injured Reserve
Eric Stokes CB Oct 25 Hamstring Injured Reserve
David Bakhtiari OT Oct 6 Knee Injured Reserve
Luke Tenuta OT Aug 31 Ankle Injured Reserve
Tyler Davis TE Aug 21 Knee Injured Reserve


Lions Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
C.J. Gardner-Johnson S Nov 23 Injured Reserve
Jonah Jackson G Nov 22 Wrist Out
Emmanuel Moseley CB Nov 22 Knee Injured Reserve
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Nov 15 Back Injured Reserve
Scott Daly LS Oct 31 Knee Injured Reserve
Zonovan Knight RB Oct 14 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Jason Cabinda FB Oct 7 Knee Injured Reserve
Matt Nelson OT Sep 28 Injured Reserve
James Houston LB Sep 19 Ankle Injured Reserve
Nate Sudfeld QB Aug 30 Knee Injured Reserve
Hendon Hooker QB Aug 30 Knee Out
Shane Zylstra TE Aug 2 Knee Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


Packers Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Christian Watson Malik Heath
RWR Romeo Doubs Dontayvion Wicks
SWR Jayden Reed Samori Toure
LT Yosh Nijman Rasheed Walker
LG Elgton Jenkins Royce Newman
C Josh Myers
RG Jon Runyan Sean Rhyan
RT Zach Tom Caleb Jones
TE Luke Musgrave Tucker Kraft
QB Jordan Love Sean Clifford
RB Aaron Jones Aj Dillon
FB Josiah Deguara
Defense
LDE Kenny Clark Colby Wooden
NT T.J. Slaton
RDE Devonte Wyatt Karl Brooks
LOLB Rashan Gary Lukas Van Ness
LILB De'Vondre Campbell Isaiah Mcduffie
RILB Quay Walker Eric Wilson
ROLB Preston Smith Kingsley Enagbare
LCB Carrington Valentine Robert Rochell
SS Jonathan Owens Zayne Anderson
FS Rudy Ford Anthony Johnson Jr.
RCB Jaire Alexander Corey Ballentine
NB Keisean Nixon




Lions Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Josh Reynolds Antoine Green
RWR Jameson Williams Donovan Peoples-Jones
SWR Amon-Ra St. Brown Kalif Raymond
LT Taylor Decker Dan Skipper
LG Jonah Jackson Kayode Awosika
C Frank Ragnow
RG Graham Glasgow
RT Penei Sewell Colby Sorsdal
TE Sam Laporta Brock Wright
QB Jared Goff Teddy Bridgewater
RB Jahmyr Gibbs David Montgomery
Defense
DE John Cominsky Josh Paschal
NT Benito Jones Isaiah Buggs
DT Alim Mcneill Levi Onwuzurike
RUSH Aidan Hutchinson Romeo Okwara
WLB Alex Anzalone Jalen Reeves-Maybin
MLB Derrick Barnes Malcolm Rodriguez
SLB Jack Campbell Anthony Pittman
LCB Cameron Sutton Will Harris
SS Kerby Joseph Ifeatu Melifonwu
FS Tracy Walker Iii
RCB Jerry Jacobs Khalil Dorsey
NB Brian Branch Chase Lucas




THURSDAY 4:30 PM EST
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-10.5, 48.5)
TA Pick: DAL/WAS over 48.5 (-110). Good to 49.5
Source: Widely Available

ATS Pick 'Em: WAS +12
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
WAS (O) DAL (D) DAL (O) WAS (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 18 5 3 30
Explosive Pass% 21 19 4 26
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 17 11 14 13
Explosive Rush% 14 9 15 10
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 5 8 11 14
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Sam Howell Dak Prescott
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure 25 1
OL Pressure 25 4
Opp DL Pressure 16 19
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz 23 2
Opp Blitz Rate 6 17
Team Ranks
WAS DAL
Net Success 17 8
Offense Pace 20 5
Neutral Pass% 3 5
TO Margin 24 8
OFF TO EPA 24 9
DEF TO EPA 19 11
ANALYSIS
  • This game profiles pretty similarly for me to the Washington/Philly games earlier this season that ended up 34-31 and 38-31 final scores. Those games closed with a total of 43 and both flew over those bad numbers, so the market is finally catching up to this Commanders team. But even in that 2nd matchup, the Eagles fumbled twice inside the Commanders five yard line or there could have easily been over 80 combined points.
  • When we talk about this game, lets first discuss their perception and position in the market. Washington games have on average closed with a total of 41.5 against final scoring output average of 49.1 Six of 11 games have gone over the total and 4/5 that went under involved terrible offenses (Arizona in opener with Dobbs, NE with Mac Jones, NYG with Tyrod Taylor, ATL with Desmond Rider).
  • Washington has the single largest gap in the final total points scored in their games and the stated over/under in the NFL, at +7.6 points. The Cowboys are 4th at +4.0, so these are two teams that the market has been consistently incorrect about when it comes to scoring outputs.
  • It should be noted that this is going to be by far the highest point total in a Commanders game this season. However, in the five Washington games with a total above 42, four have gone over and all of them reached at least 55 total points. Three finished with 60+ points and all of the games at 42.5+ have gone over the total by at least 14 points.
  • Six of the Cowboys 10 games have gone over the total and three of their four home games have gone over. Their home games have also been against maybe the three worst QBs in the NFL in Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and Tommy Devito. These guys rank 33, 39 and 40th out of 40 QBs in EPA this season. The fourth was against Matthew Stafford and the Rams but he got hurt in the 2nd quarter. Assuming he plays the whole game, Sam Howell will be by far the best QB the Cowboys will have faced at home this season.
  • What is interesting is as good as the Dallas defense has performed this season, they have only faced three top 30 ranked QBs by EPA (Purdy, Hurts, Herbert) who finished at least a half (Stafford knocked out in Q2). The Cowboys defense allowed Purdy to generate his 2nd best EPA of the season, Hurts his 2nd best as well while holding Herbert to his 2nd worst. To be fair Herbert was playing his first game back from his finger injury but nonetheless that was the only time they held a non-terrible QB to an EPA below expectations. Not only has Dallas faced Wilson, Mac Jones and Devito at home but they also got the luxury of facing Daniel Jones, Josh Dobbs and Bryce Young on the road this season. Based on EPA, the Cowboys defense have faced the single easiest overall schedule of opposing QBs and even then, five of 10 opponents have gone over their team totals. So it has not been a one sided case where the Dallas offense has carried these games over.
  • The Commanders defense has struggled badly in the secondary this season themselves. They rank 30th in EPA per dropback but rank last in my consistency metric where they have only held one team (Arizona in the opener) to an EPA below that offenses season average. They have gone nine straight games of allowing an opposing offense to generate an EPA above their season average and have done so against a top five easiest schedule of opposing offenses. They rank 27th in net yards per pass attempt against the 3rd easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses based on net ypa. Washington has faced five offenses in the top 17 in EPA offense. They have allowed point totals of 33, 37, 34, 38 and 29 points in those games. Based on EPA versus expectations, the Commanders defense ranks last. Dallas ranks 4th best in the NFL in EPA on offense and play like the best offense in the NFL at home.
  • In the three games since the Chase Young and Montez Sweat trades, and against two horrible QBs in Mac Jones and Tommy Devito plus Geno Smith, this defense ranks just 19th in EPA on dropbacks while allowing 20 ppg. That does not sound all that bad until you realize Devito threw for 9.5 ypa with 3 TDs after looking like the worst QB the NFL has ever seen, they allowed Mac Jones to generate an EPA well above his season average and Geno produced his 2nd best EPA game all season against the Washington defense.
  • The Commanders are also dealing with injuries to an already thin defense. ED James Smith-Williams, a starting defensive end, missed their last game with a hamstring injury and did not practice on Monday. Their top reserve ED Efe Odaba, was just placed on IR this week and in the secondary rookie 1st round CB Emmanuel Forbes, hurt his elbow against the Giants and is Questionable as well. This defense cant afford more losses and on a short week, the likelihood of playing for some of these guys is slim.
  • Not much has to be said about this Dallas offense. They destroy everyone at home. Here are the point totals for the last 9 Dallas home games, dating back to mid last season- 49, 43, 38, 30, 40, 27, 54, 28, 49. That is 39.8 PPG! We are talking Big 12 college football type scoring and that has included some top 10 EPA defenses like the Jets this season and the Eagles and Colts last season. Why in the world is it going to be any different against this Commanders defense that is currently bottom five level in the NFL?
  • Dak Prescott is playing like a strong MVP candidate this season and is currently 2nd in the NFL in EPA per drop back. Since week 6, Dak ranks #1 in the NFL in EPA per drop back at +0.351. In the last two seasons, Dak Prescott has faced seven bottom 10 pass defenses by EPA, and the Cowboys have averaged 31 ppg. He has been fairly matchup proof at home as even against three top 10 EPA pass defenses in the Jets this year and the Colts and Eagles last season, Dak has generated three positive EPA games with a cumulative +0.265 EPA per drop back in those games.
  • In terms of the matchup, it is very favorable for Dak and this offense. Not only is Washington potentially the worst pass defense in the NFL right now, but they have allowed a bottom five explosive pass rate and are 31st in EPA allowed over the middle of the field. Dak loves throwing over the middle of the field and is top 10 in EPA. Predictably, the Commanders pass rush has fallen off since the trade of their top Edge rushers as well. After generating a pressure rate of at least 30% in four of their prior five games before the trade and averaging ~35% pressure rate in those pre trade games, they have not generated a pressure rate above 28% and are averaging just 23% in these three post trade games. This Dallas OL should continue to dominate the trenches, giving Dak all day to throw with a clean pocket. Dak is 10th best in PFF grade with a clean pocket and is 8th in PFFs big time throw metric.
  • Expect another monster game from WR Cee Dee Lamb on Thursday. He is 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards and goes up against the Commanders pass defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing #1 WRs, at 103 per game. They are also dead last in DVOA against top WRs so it is both the stats and the impact. No defense has allowed more receiving TDs as well so it is really difficult to envision a scenario where Cee Dee does not explode here.
  • The Dallas offense continues to throw the ball well above expectations in neutral game situations (5th highest rate) which is clearly good for an over. When you account for the defenses they are facing, Dallas throws the ball at the 7th highest rate above their opponents average allowance in neutral game situations as well. Opponents have thrown at the 3rd highest rate above their opponents season average on the Commanders defense so clearly it has been a focus of opposing QBs to attack this secondary. So you have a Dallas offense that is throwing the football a ton against a Commanders defense that has been thrown on all season.
  • When Dallas has faced similar defenses that have seen opposing QBs throw the ball at a top 10 rate over average, the Cowboys have thrown the ball at an extremely high rate. Against the Rams (11th), they threw the ball 78% of the time in neutral game situations and against the Eagles (1st), they threw it 72% of the time. I expect much of the same on Thursday.
  • Meanwhile, the Washington offense shows up when they need to step up in weight class but then plays down to competition. They only scored 3 points in the Buffalo game but much of that was due to 5 TOs. Otherwise, against Philly 2x and Seattle, Sam Howell and this offense has scored 31, 31 and 26 points while looking very competent. Against Philly, they generated the highest and fourth highest EPA that the Eagles defense has allowed all season and against Seattle, the 3rd highest and Denver the 2nd highest. But against bad defenses like the Giants and Cardinals, where they were held to the lowest EPA twice and 2nd lowest EPA once, they are awful against the bad defenses. It is really odd how they step up against the good teams and step down to all the bad ones.
  • As we have seen against some of the better competition they have faced, this Washington offense shows some real flashes at times. If you exclude drives that end in a turnover, the Commanders offense ranks league average in success rate and 12th best in drive success rate (2+ first downs or a TD) when starting a drive inside their own territory. Their issue is the offense ranks 30th in turnover EPA given up. Clearly the turnovers are an issue and Howell's inconsistencies lead to that but some of it is also just bad fumble luck as well.
  • Using my consistency metric, Washington ranks 11th best on offense in EPA, producing offense above their opponents average in 60% of their games. They have actual weapons on the offense and when Howell gets the ball out quickly, they can be dangerous. They are good enough to keep up in a shootout but as seen above, they are also leaving some meat on the bone and can excel even further without the bad turnovers.
  • This Commanders offense continues to throw it at a ridiculous rate as well, in fact the 4th highest rate vs opponent expectations. That has likely led to a lot of why these games have gone over the total at such a high rate for them. It doesnt matter who is playing defense, Eric Bienemy and this offense is going to chuck it around the yard.
  • Howell is going to face a ton of man to man defense that the Cowboys employ at one of the highest rates in the NFL. He has played fairly well against man, ranking top 10 in yards per attempt. There is no reason that this offense is not going to continue to lean on the pass heavily, leading to opportunities for scoring on offense and frankly the potential for defensive TDs as well. No defense can create turnovers that become defensive TDs more than Dallas so that is not a problem for this over. They rank 1st by a mile with six non offensive TDs.
  • My model has this game closer to 50, so I see value here. From a side perspective, the Cowboys are definitely inflated at -11 but its hard to ignore how dominant they have been at home and all of the advantages this offense will have on this Commanders defense. At the same time, Washington is a team you want as an underdog but fade when they are expected to outperform as a favorite. For pools, I would take Washington at anything above double digits but am not interested in putting money on Washington.
GAME TRENDS
  • Thanksgiving favorites of 7+ are 19-8 ATS (70%) since 2000 with an average ATS margin of +6.2 pts per game. Divisional favorites of 7+ are 8-3 ATS. Double digit favorites on Thanksgiving are 9-3 ATS with a +7.2 ATS margin.
  • Thanksgiving games with a total of 48+ are 10-9 (53%) with a +2.8 margin to the over since 2000. 8/12 games (67% have gone over between 47 and 49.5 points by an average of 6.7 points per game
  • Washington is 12-9 ATS under Rivera as a road underdog. 7-2 ATS (78%) in the last two seasons. This includes an outright win over Philly last year on MNF as an 11.5 point road dog.
INJURY ANALYSIS

Commanders Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Khaleke Hudson LB Nov 21 Questionable
Antonio Gibson RB Nov 21 Toe Questionable
Cody Barton LB Nov 21 Ankle Injured Reserve
James Smith-Williams DE Nov 21 Questionable
Alex Armah RB Nov 21 Questionable
Efe Obada DE Nov 20 Lower Leg Injured Reserve
De'Jon Harris LB Nov 20 Questionable
Emmanuel Forbes CB Nov 20 Questionable
Jartavius Martin S Nov 20 Questionable
Ricky Stromberg C Nov 7 Knee Injured Reserve
Saahdiq Charles OT Oct 28 Calf Injured Reserve
Jeremy Reaves S Oct 23 Knee Injured Reserve
Darrick Forrest S Oct 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Dax Milne WR Sep 8 Groin Injured Reserve
Brandon Dillon TE Aug 29 Undisclosed Injured Reserve
Braeden Daniels G Aug 28 Injured Reserve
David Bada DT Aug 10 Injured Reserve
Curtis Brooks DT Aug 8 Undisclosed Injured Reserve


Cowboys Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Jayron Kearse S Nov 21 Back Questionable
Rico Dowdle RB Nov 21 Ankle Questionable
Peyton Hendershot TE Nov 20 Ankle Injured Reserve
Viliami Fehoko Jr. DE Nov 18 Knee Injured Reserve
C.J. Goodwin CB Nov 14 Pectoral Injured Reserve
Leighton Vander Esch LB Nov 14 Neck Injured Reserve
Trevon Diggs CB Oct 25 Injured Reserve
Matt Waletzko OT Aug 30 Undisclosed Injured Reserve
Josh Ball OT Aug 30 Hip Injured Reserve
DeMarvion Overshown LB Aug 30 Knee Injured Reserve
David Durden WR Aug 30 Knee Injured Reserve
John Stephens Jr. WR Aug 30 Knee Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


Commanders Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Terry Mclaurin Dyami Brown
RWR Jahan Dotson Byron Pringle
SWR Curtis Samuel Jamison Crowder
LT Charles Leno Jr. Cornelius Lucas
LG Chris Paul Julian Good-Jones
C Tyler Larsen Nick Gates
RG Sam Cosmi
RT Andrew Wylie Trent Scott
TE Logan Thomas John Bates
QB Sam Howell Jacoby Brissett
RB Brian Robinson Jr. Antonio Gibson
FB Alex Armah
Defense
LDE James Smith-Williams Andre Jones Jr.
LDT Daron Payne Phidarian Mathis
RDT Jonathan Allen John Ridgeway Iii
RDE Casey Toohill Kj Henry
WLB Jamin Davis Khaleke Hudson
MLB David Mayo De'Jon Harris
LCB Benjamin St-Juste Emmanuel Forbes Jr.
SS Kamren Curl Terrell Burgess
FS Percy Butler Jartavius Martin
RCB Kendall Fuller Christian Holmes
NB Danny Johnson




Cowboys Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Michael Gallup Jalen Brooks
RWR Brandin Cooks Jalen Tolbert
SWR Ceedee Lamb Kavontae Turpin
LT Tyron Smith Chuma Edoga
LG Tyler Smith Asim Richards
C Tyler Biadasz Brock Hoffman
RG Zack Martin T.J. Bass
RT Terence Steele
TE Jake Ferguson Luke Schoonmaker
QB Dak Prescott Cooper Rush
RB Tony Pollard Rico Dowdle
FB Hunter Luepke
Defense
LDE Demarcus Lawrence Dante Fowler Jr.
NT Johnathan Hankins Mazi Smith
DT Osa Odighizuwa Chauncey Golston
RDE Micah Parsons Dorance Armstrong
WLB Markquese Bell Rashaan Evans
MLB Damone Clark
LCB Stephon Gilmore Nahshon Wright
SS Jayron Kearse Donovan Wilson
FS Malik Hooker Juanyeh Thomas
RCB Daron Bland Noah Igbinoghene
NB Jourdan Lewis




THURSDAY 8:20 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7, 43.5) @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
TA Pick: DET -1.5/SF -1 teaser to win 1.5 units (-120)
Source: DK

ATS Pick 'Em: SEA +7
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
SF (O) SEA (D) SEA (O) SF (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 1 17 14 4
Explosive Pass% 1 20 13 4
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 7 21 9 27
Explosive Rush% 7 12 9 20
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 4 7 12 21
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Brock Purdy Geno Smith
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure 14 9
OL Pressure 20 26
Opp DL Pressure 14 9
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz 13 9
Opp Blitz Rate 24 30
Team Ranks
SF SEA
Net Success 1 9
Offense Pace 30 17
Neutral Pass% 21 7
TO Margin 5 7
OFF TO EPA 10 6
DEF TO EPA 2 14
ANALYSIS
  • There are some major questions about how healthy Geno Smith is this week after hurting his bicep in the game last week against the Rams. He is expected to play but he has been very limited in practice and on a short week against this Niners defense, it’s hard to feel confident that the Seahawks offense will be at full strength.
  • As long as Geno is able to throw the ball like normal, theoretically he could find some success against this secondary. The Niners employ one of the most zone heavy defenses in the NFL and Geno ranks 11th in ypa and 8th in completion % against zone this season. His numbers last season were even better. And the Niners don’t really have any lockdown CBs so it’s not as if it will be impossible to move it through the air with the trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Niners do everything Safety Talanoa Hufanga is out and will hurt the playmaking in the secondary for SF.
  • But as we saw last year, Geno just struggles against this defense. He generated just a -0.09 EPA per drop back and a poor 42.5% success rate in those three games last year against SF. To be fair, after two miserable starts against SF, his third game in the playoffs was his 4th best game all season. So maybe he started to get more comfortable with this Niners defense and can carry that through tonight? We will see but he will need time in the pocket to make those plays.
  • This Niners front is loaded with studs and Young has 9 pressures and 2 sacks in just two games with this team. The Seattle OL has struggled with health and they have not protected Geno very well, allowing the 7th highest pressure rate this season. I expect a much quicker passing game from Seattle in order to help offset this Niners pass rush.
  • Not that it should really move the needle but RB Kenneth Walker is out as well and rookie Zach Charbonet will start. I think he will be fine getting a majority of the snaps but the depth behind him is shotty and could get dicey when he needs a breather. Seattle has been a very average run offense and they’ve done so against the easiest schedule of opposing offenses when looking at opponent success rate allowed. The Niners run defense is surprisingly just 17th in ypc allowed and 28th in EPA allowed. They have faced an easy schedule themselves and in the two games with Chase Young, they’ve allowed just 125 yards on 35 carries. I would look to Charbonet more in the pass game where the Niners have allowed the 9th highest opponent adjusted target rate to RBs. With this pass rush, Charbonet should see a decent amount of targets in the pass game.
  • This Seattle team is interesting because they have the pieces and potential to be a real contender in the NFC, but they just can’t seem to put it all together. They have the 3rd best EPA offense on early downs but rank 29th on 3rd downs. Defensively, they are 9th on early downs but 30th in allowing 3rd downs vs expectations. You would expect these late down deficiencies to eventually regress toward early down performance but it just hasn’t happened.
  • This Niners team, especially on offense, just continues to pummel teams when all of their key players are in the lineup. In just games where Purdy, Deebo, CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle and Trent Williams all started and played a majority of the snaps, the Niners are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS (lost by 0.5 point to Rams on meaningless last second FG) with a scoring differential of +20.4 ppg. The offense has generated an impressive 6.63 yards per play and 32.5 ppg with those guys in the lineup. Just 17 ppg in the three games without them. This is the best team in the NFL in their current state and they continue to not let teams breathe.
  • The Seattle run defense is 12th in success rate, 11th in ypc allowed to RBs and 21st in EPA. But they have rarely faced any good opposing RBs like they will with CMC. Joe Mixon is probably the only legit starting RB they’ve faced all year. They lucked out by not having to face RBs like David Montgomery for a full game (got hurt in the first half), Nick Chubb, James Conner and Saquon Barkley all due to injuries. Talk about a step up in class with tonight’s matchup. Last year CMC produced games of 26-108-1 TD and 25-119 against Seattle. It should be noted that CMC’s efficiency has really dropped this season even though the volume is there. He has not rushed for 100+ yards since week 4 against Arizona. Four of his last six games have seen him rush for under 4.0 ypc. This team has really evolved into Brock Purdy’s offense.
  • Purdy has been incredible this season, ranking #1 in the NFL in EPA per dropback. No matter what you think of the surrounding cast + Kyle Shanahan system, he is running this offense better than anyone else ever has in SF. He did struggle a bit last year in a night game in Seattle so I will be curious to see how he looks in a tough environment. He loves targeting the middle of the field (5th in EPA) and Seattle is one of the worst teams in the NFL defending throws over the middle (28th in EPA with the 3rd highest pass rate allowed). Purdy spreads it around well but WR Brandon Aiyuk has been the biggest beneficiary on those over the middle throws (21 targets). Aiyuk has been awesome this year and has four games over 100 receiving yards and three monster games of 129+.
  • The Seattle defense’s strength is at outside CB with two good ones in Tariq Woolen and Devin Witherspoon. Both are graded by PFF at 73+ and inside the top 30 among all CBs in coverage grade. The unique thing with the Shanahan offense is that he gets the ball in his playmakers hands in different ways so it’s not as straightforward as pure routes to receivers and runs to his RBs. But the Seattle defense offers some challengers for these WRs. George Kittle could be a tough matchup for Seattle who ranks 27th in schedule adjusted yards per target allowed to TEs. There are just so many ways for this offense to go.
  • When you adjust for schedule, Seattle is just barely above average in net success rate, at 15th in the NFL. The 49ers rank 1st. In terms of DVOA, Seattle is 16th and the 49ers 2nd best. This line is probably a tad inflated but that likely prices in much of the Geno Smith injury uncertainty. If this was a normal week without the injury question, I would look to the Seahawks side at 7/7.5. But with these uncertainties, and the way the Niners are overwhelming every opponent, a six point teaser leg is attractive for SF tonight.
  • It’s a very small sample but if you teased every favorite on Thanksgiving who were between 7 and 8.5 point favorites (wong teaser range), you would have hit 86% of those legs (13/15). In general, shorter weeks favor the better teams so on just Thursday games with favorites in the 7 to 8.5 point range, 79.5% of teaser legs (35/44) would have hit since 2000. Both are above the hurdle win rate you’d need for a teaser to be +EV.
GAME TRENDS
  • Road favorites on Thanksgiving are 20-9 ATS (69%) with a +6.2 ATS margin and 27-3 straight up (90%). That 90% win percentage is against an expected win percentage of 69% based on the point spreads and expected win probabilities of those games.
  • Pete Carrol is 19-9 ATS (69%) as a home dog in his Seattle career. 4-1 ATS with Geno Smith at QB
INJURY ANALYSIS

49ers Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Talanoa Hufanga S Nov 21 Knee Injured Reserve
Aaron Banks G Nov 21 Questionable
Spencer Burford OT Nov 20 Questionable
Nick Zakelj OT Nov 15 Biceps Injured Reserve
Drake Jackson DE Nov 11 Knee Injured Reserve
Robert Beal Jr. DE Nov 6 Hamstring Injured Reserve
Samuel Womack III CB Nov 6 Knee Injured Reserve
Danny Gray WR Aug 30 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Cameron Latu TE Aug 29 Knee Injured Reserve


Seahawks Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Abraham Lucas OT Nov 22 Knee Injured Reserve
Dareke Young WR Nov 22 Abdomen Doubtful
Geno Smith QB Nov 22 Elbow Questionable
Kenneth Walker III RB Nov 22 Oblique Doubtful
Jerrick Reed II S Nov 20 Knee Out
Coby Bryant CB Nov 20 Toe Injured Reserve
Drake Thomas LB Nov 6 Knee Injured Reserve
Uchenna Nwosu LB Oct 26 Pectoral Injured Reserve
Mike Morris DE Sep 20 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Bryan Mone DT Aug 30 Knee Out
Joshua Onujiogu LB Aug 10 Elbow Injured Reserve
Andrew Whitaker CB Aug 9 Knee Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


49ers Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Brandon Aiyuk Ronnie Bell
RWR Deebo Samuel Ray-Ray Mccloud Iii
SWR Jauan Jennings
LT Trent Williams Jaylon Moore
LG Aaron Banks Jon Feliciano
C Jake Brendel
RG Spencer Burford
RT Colton Mckivitz Matt Pryor
TE George Kittle Charlie Woerner
QB Brock Purdy Sam Darnold
RB Christian Mccaffrey Jordan Mason
FB Kyle Juszczyk
Defense
LDE Nick Bosa Randy Gregory
LDT Arik Armstead Kevin Givens
RDT Javon Hargrave Javon Kinlaw
RDE Chase Young Clelin Ferrell
WLB Dre Greenlaw Dee Winters
MLB Fred Warner Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
SLB Oren Burks Jalen Graham
LCB Charvarius Ward Darrell Luter Jr.
LS Talanoa Hufanga Ji'Ayir Brown
RS Tashaun Gipson Sr. George Odum
RCB Ambry Thomas Shemar Jean-Charles
NB Deommodore Lenoir Isaiah Oliver




Seahawks Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Dk Metcalf Jake Bobo
RWR Tyler Lockett Dareke Young
SWR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Dee Eskridge
LT Charles Cross Raiqwon O'Neal
LG Damien Lewis Mcclendon Curtis
C Evan Brown Olu Oluwatimi
RG Phil Haynes Anthony Bradford
RT Stone Forsythe Jason Peters
TE Noah Fant Will Dissly
QB Geno Smith Drew Lock
RB Kenneth Walker Iii Zach Charbonnet
Defense
LDE Leonard Williams Myles Adams
NT Jarran Reed Cameron Young
RDE Mario Edwards Jr.
LOLB Dre'Mont Jones Darrell Taylor
LILB Jordyn Brooks Jon Rhattigan
RILB Bobby Wagner Nick Bellore
ROLB Boye Mafe Frank Clark
LCB Tre Brown Michael Jackson
SS Jamal Adams Julian Love
FS Quandre Diggs Jerrick Reed Ii
RCB Riq Woolen
NB Devon Witherspoon Artie Burns




2023 Advanced Team Stats

Click on the buttons inside the tabbed menu

Click on columns to sort by rank

Blended 4Q -> 1 = overperformed, 32 = underperformed

Success Rate EPA/Play Early Down EPA/Play 3rd Down Over Exp Drive Success ex TO Drives Turnover EPA Fumble Lost EPA Interception EPA
1 1 1 10 2 10 16 4
2 3 3 3 8 16 22 13
3 2 2 12 1 27 26 25
4 6 11 6 11 14 24 7
5 8 8 9 3 20 19 22
6 5 6 1 7 18 15 21
7 4 5 2 6 8 3 16
8 15 13 20 26 7 7 11
9 12 4 28 16 3 4 9
10 23 24 7 17 29 29 28
11 11 20 15 5 32 32 17
12 9 12 4 14 22 21 23
13 21 14 29 18 21 27 12
14 28 29 31 28 31 13 32
15 7 9 13 21 2 6 1
16 20 16 17 12 30 28 29
17 18 23 16 9 13 2 24
18 13 18 8 13 12 5 18
19 17 17 23 14 11 20 2
20 10 7 5 4 9 14 6
21 29 22 26 30 25 17 30
22 19 15 22 22 5 9 8
23 24 27 11 19 26 31 19
24 16 10 30 20 6 8 10
25 25 21 24 29 1 1 3
26 27 26 18 23 15 11 20
27 22 19 21 25 19 25 14
28 14 25 14 24 4 10 5
29 26 28 25 27 28 23 31
30 30 31 19 10 23 18 26
31 31 32 27 31 17 12 27
32 32 30 32 32 24 30 15


DFS Summaries

Thanksgiving DFS Values (Draftkings): Coming Wednesday

 

Player Stats & DFS Analysis by Position Groups

Contribution from Amr Gabr

On a Per Game Basis

Draftkings Salaries

OWN% = Projected Ownership on Draftkings

(Sortable Tables)

 

*NOTE*: The players below are not the only guys I’d put in my lineup, I just want to highlight the guys I am targeting and some potential value based on pricing and/or projected ownership.

Quarterback