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Disclaimer: I will post selections that I have personally taken at the time I take them. However, my personal picks are not intended for people to blindly follow, it’s just to show full transparency. I expect subscribers to use the information and data on the site to help better inform their own selections for wagers, pools, DFS , etc. I am prepared to lose many of the outrights and top 10s that I post. There is absolutely no guarantee of positive results.

 

Course Details:

The North Course, Los Angeles Country Club

Par 70

Length: 7,423 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

This will be the first time that the North Course has been used for a Major and the first time it has hosted any PGA event since the LA Open in 1940. Because of this there is absolutely zero historical data to go on for this course so anything anyone discusses in regards to this course will have an element of guesswork to it. From those who have played the course, LACC is one that is not just suited for one type of golfer but rather a good all around game will be needed. It is a longer course (top 5 longest this season) but with dry weather expected, expect a lot of run outs on the fairway. The fairways are sloping so the course should play shorter than suggested. However, the players will need to be creative in some of their shot making and from all accounts, this is a thinking man’s course. You won’t just be able to bomb off the tee and think that you will be able to find the green easily no matter where your tee shot ends up.

LACC fairways are rather wide (43 yards on average) and it will end up being one of the widest fairway courses the players will see all season. However, if you miss the fairways, the penalty is likely much more harsh due to the thick bermuda grass rough. This is the first Major to have bermuda rough since 2014 (Pinehurst). In addition, if you miss the fairways, you may be hitting blind into many greens so it is imperative to hit those fairways no matter how wide they may be. It should be noted that the rough is likely even worse around the greens so missing on approach will be extra penal. This is Max Homa’s home course and he had some interesting comments when asked about the differences between Riviera (Genesis Invitational) and LACC: “LACC is a second-shot golf course similar to this so I would give it that, but the value on the tee shot out here is a lot higher than out there,” said Homa, in reference to the more narrow fairways at Riviera versus LACC. There is zero water on the course as it is an open parkland course.

What makes this course unique on top of everything else is how vast the types of holes are from a distance standpoint. There are five Par 3s with two holes playing as long as you will ever see a Par 3 play, at nearly 300 yards each. There is also a very short Par 3 that, depending on where the pin is located, can play as short as 77 yards up to 124. There are also three very long Par 4s at over 500 yards each as well as a reachable Par 4 at 380 yards. In addition, all three of the Par 5s are reachable in two.

If you want a fly over discussion on the course this video is a good one from The Fried Egg https://t.co/A3t7ADfWeL

 


Weather: Absolutely perfect conditions all weekend in LA with temps in the low to mid 70s, sun and clouds mixed with little to no wind each day. The weather will have zero impact this week.

 

US Open Historical Key Trends:

  • 16 straight US Open winners came into the event ranked top 45 on tour in SG Tee to Green. 7 of the last 8 winners came in ranked inside the top 10

  • 11 of the last 14 US Open winners were first time major winners

  • 13 straight winners came into the event ranked inside the top 40 in the official world golf ranks (“OWGR”)

  • 13 straight winners finished inside the top 10 in at least one of their previous 5 starts on tour prior to their US Open start

Using just the basic filters above- Top 40 in world golf ranks, top 45 SG Tee to Green and at least one top 10 finish in a PGA event in their last 5 starts, below is who would fit these trends:


 

**NOTE: Without enough PGA events, technically neither Brooks Koepka nor Cam Smith would qualify, however, Cam was top 30 last year in Tee to Green and Brooks has posted elite Tee to Green numbers in his two majors this season so both are included.

Not a ton of surprises but a few notables who were left off the list include Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Adam Scott and Shane Lowry.

Strokes Gained Data- Field Ranks


 


 

2023 California PGA Event Perfromance


 


 

Majors Performance Since 2021- Min 2 Starts

(*No SG Data available for 21 British Open)


 


 

Majors Highlights:

  • Among players with the most success in majors since 2021, far and away the biggest surprise is Kevin Streelman. He is 4/4 in made cuts, is 4th overall in strokes gained per major start and has finished top 20 in three of the four. He hasn’t had a great season in 2023 but he has two top 20 finishes in his last three events.

  • Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsyuama are the only players who have participated in at least five majors since 21 and have made 100% of their cuts.

  • Among the top ranked players in the world, Sungjae IM (75th) and Jason Day (80th) have performed the worst in majors since 2021.

  • Cam Young is a virtual all or nothing in majors. He has three made cuts, all with a top seven finish, and four cuts since 2021.

  • Rory McIlroy has five top eight finishes in his last six majors

  • Xander Schauffele has five straight top 20 finishes without a single finish inside the top 10

  • Scottie Scheffler is a machine in majors. He has the highest top 10 rate with seven top 10s in his 10 majors since 2021.

Percentile finish- SG Approach in Majors Since 2021


 


 

Recent PGA Results and Top 10 Finishes


 

TA Selections:

Cameron Smith 30-1 to win (FD) risking 0.5 units and Top 10 +300 (BOL) risking 1 unit- It’s always risky backing a LIV golfer but trying to fit the profile of golfer who may do well at LACC, Cam fits for me. You need to be able to shape shots and be creating on approach and around the green and Cam is as good as it gets there. You also need strong long irons and that is a specialty for Smith. We know he can get the job done in tight situations and especially on tough courses. **Adding round 1 leader 40-1 (DK) risking 0.2 units.

 

Max Homa 30-1 to win (FD) risking 0.3 units and Top 10 +300 (BOL) risking 0.7 units– This is poor value I fully understand as Max has been bet by many for months all the way up to 50-1. I just like Max and I can’t at all discount a) how well he does in California events and b) how he has the course record at LACC (its not his home course per se fwiw). That has to count for something. He has two wins on tour in California in the last three years and three other top 10s. So I want a piece of Max and that’s all there is to it.

 

Sahith Theegala 100-1 to win (BOL) risking 0.1 units, Top 20 +375 (BOL) risking 0.7 units and Top 10 +850 (BOL) risking 0.2 units- Sahith is just flat out fun to follow. His weekend will likely be a roller coaster but if he gets hot ook out. He finished 6th and 4th at the Genesis and Farmers Insurance events this year in California and has posted a 9 at the Masters and T40 at the PGA in two Majors this year.

 

Scottie Scheffler -125 top 10 (FD) to win 2 units. You can find Scottie to win at 11-1 on Caesars sportsbook but otherwise he is 7-1 essentially everywhere else. I would definitely take that 11-1 if you can get it but for the purposes of finding odds for something that everyone should have access to I am playing it safe and grabbing his top 10. Anything at -140 or better is worth it. What else can you say about Scottie this season. He has dominated the tour in tee to green but his poor putting of late has prevented him from going on a big run of tournament wins. Since the Masters, he ranks #1 in this field in tee to green by a mile. The gap between he and #2 (Rahm) is equivalent to #2 and #9. However, he ranks 85th in SG putting in that span. And yet even with that awful putting display, he has gone 6/6 in top 11 finishes on tour including four straight top 5s. Tee to green stats are much more sticky than putting so even if we get field average level putting from Scottie, he has a strong chance to win. In majors he has been dominant as well, leading the field with a 70% top 10 rate since 2021.

 

Mito Perreira 110-1 to win (FD) risking 0.1 units and Top 20 +250 (DK) risking 1 unit– Mito is flying under the radar but he is an irons machine. He ranks #2 in SG approach in majors since 2021 and has posted four straight performances on approach in the 84th percentile or better in those majors. This is absolutely a 2nd shot course and everyone who has played at LACC continues to re-iterate how much irons are emphasized here. Dating back to last season when he was still a PGA member, he has made seven straight cuts. This includes a T18 at the PGA Championship last month.

 

Viktor Hovland 18-1 to win (DK) risking 0.5 units, round 1 leader 35-1 (DK) risking 0.2 units and Top 10 +180 (DK) risking 1 unit- The Hov fits everything you want here. Not only is he a recent PGA winner, at the Memorial, but did it at a major-like event and course in terms of difficulty. He has three straight top 7s at a major and is top 20 in most every strokes gained category beside around the green where he has vastly improved of late. He is a demon with his short and long irons and sits 8th on tour in 150-200 yard approach proximity to the green from the fairway. He is only one of four players in this field to gain strokes above the event median in both approach and off the tee 80%+ of their events. He has flirted with a major win both times this year and I think that the Memorial victory could be what gives him the confidence to close things out this weekend and capture his first major.

 

Denny McCarthy +320 (DK) top 20 risking 0.5 units, top 10 +850 (DK) risking 0.4 units and first round leader 100-1 (BOL) risking 0.1 unit– Denny flies under the radar but he has played very well this year and is the best putter on tour so he can get hot if his tee to green is consistent. He is 27th in first round scoring average on tour and with his putter can rack up birdies in a hurry to potentially get out to a lead. Otherwise, he has quietly made five straight cuts at a major and ranks 1st in the field in SG putting, 17th on approach and 15th overall in majors since 2021. He has four top 10s and eight top 20s this season including an impressive 2nd place in his last start at the Memorial two weeks ago. That week off in between should re-focus him after a brutal loss on a blown 18th hole to Hovland.

 

Justin Rose -120 over Bryson Dechambeau full tournament matchup (DK) to win 1 unit– I just trust Rose more than Bryson. Just one month ago, Bryson was trading around 100-1 to win and now he sits closer to 40-1 in many spots. One good showing has all of the sudden elevated him in many people’s minds but I am not buying it. This is not a course that necessarily fits him as the bomb and gouge that he specializes in isn’t what succeeds at LACC. In his last 9 majors since 2021, he only has two top 25s and he is 52nd in SG approach. Even if he does play well, Rose can certainly match him anyway but is way more consistent in majors. He is 8th in SG approach in the last five majors and has finished top 16 at a major in five of his last seven majors. He has also made seven straight cuts on tour this year including six top 25s and three top 10s. I like Rose in an event that will cater to strategists and a savvy veteran like him.

 

Justin Rose top 20 +165 (DK) risking 1 unit- see above

 

Charley Hoffman top 20 12/1 (BOL) risking 0.3 units– This is a fun one because I am going to be the only idiot on earth putting money down on the Hoff. My only angle here is that between the multiple very long Par 3s, that range anywhere from 250-300 yards, as well as many of the 2nd shots on Par 5s and potential layup Par 4s, many approach shots will come from the 175+ territory and that is where Charlie excels. In fact, he ranks #1 on the entire PGA tour in approach shots from 225+ and is 38th on tour from 200+ from the fairway. Even though he is older, the guy still can bomb it off the tee and his 305 yard driving average ranks 50th on tour. His two issues are that he is not accurate at all off the tee (183rd on tour) and he is a bad putter (195th in SG Putting) but those are the two areas that aren’t necessarily keys to perform well here. The fairways are so wide that there is plenty of room for error and if he can keep it in the fairway, will have his 200+ weapon to land it on the green. If you look at similar wide fairway courses, Hoffman has finished 7th and 48th in the last three years at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Maybe he can find some magic?

 

LIVE Play: Mito -125 (DK) to win a 3 ball R2 matchup vs Grillo and Oliveira to win 1 unit- Mito was solid from tee to green in round 1 (19th in the field) but horrible putting (139th). Just looking at some positive putting regression for him in round 2

 

DFS Analysis (Draftkings Pricing)


 


 

At the top of the board, clearly Scottie Scheffler grades highly but his ownership projections of ~30% is astronomical. I think in head to head lineups, Scheffler is fine to include but in any sort of tournament, you either have to include a couple of very low owned mid/low tier golfers to diversify your lineup or just avoid Scottie altogether. If you avoid Scottie, I’d look to someone like Koepka or Hovland where you can save $1,400 and still field a player who has been a top 10 machine at a major.

Further down the board in the next tier of player, I clearly like Homa and Cam Smith, seeing as how I bet both to win. If you wanted to get more contrarian, Fitzpatrick is the lowest projection for ownership among any golfer at $8,600 and above. He just hasn’t played well enough to warrant the pick but that’s the contrarian route.

In the 3rd tier, the biggest boom or bust golfer is clearly Cam Young at $8,000. He has only made three of seven career cuts at a major but all three made cuts he has been in contention and finished top seven. He can really get hot and rack up a bunch of birdies (7th in birdie or better % on tour) when he is on so Young is a guy who I don’t love but if you sprinkled him in a big tournament lineup can pay off in a big way. From the $7,500 to $8,500 grouping, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Bryson Dechambeau are the biggest overvalues. Of the three, Rose is easily the one I trust the most considering he has finished top 16 at a major in five of his last seven majors. He has also made seven straight cuts on tour this year including six top 25s and three top 10s. I wouldn’t touch Fowler with a 10 foot pole.

Si Woo Kim (9% ownership or win projection), Mito Perreira (11%) and Russell Henley (11%) round out the highest gaps in ownership to win projection on the board. All three are expected to see big ownership because they possess excellent ball striking with their irons, an attribute that is key to win at LACC. I like Mito the most here and he has the best pedigree when it comes to contending at big events.

Theegala, Bradley, McCarthy and Gary Woodland are my favorites from that $7,600 and below category. All four are capable of contending and are either elite ball strikers or putters (McCarthy). In the $7,000 and below category, Emiliano Grillo is a recent PGA tour winner and one of the best iron players on tour. He is not a good putter but has enough precision with his approach shots where he can score birdies in bunches. His ownership looks to be close to zero so he offers a contrarian angle as well.

In the cheapie category (sub $7,000), Patrick Rodgers is a guy who is an excellent putter and has made four straight cuts at a major. Unfortunately, he has never finished higher than 29th but he is a fairly consistent player. Charley Hoffman at $6,800 is an intriguing cheapie. He hasn’t played a major since 2021 but is a vet who has plenty of experience. He is also an elite approach player in the 200+ category, where the most shots including the Par 3s will come from. He ranks #1 on the entire tour in approach shots from 225+ and from 200+ from the fairway, ranks 38th in proximity to the hole. He has gained strokes on approach above median in 80% of his starts this season. Putting is his issue but if the greens give everyone trouble this week, he could surprise.