2026 Super Bowl

General Thoughts:

• I always tend to give the underdog the benefit of the doubt whenever we get a matchup where one team is a sizeable favorite. Not that what happened in the past impacts this year’s game (price and matchup always matters) but the SB is a unique animal and I do think it does deserve observing how this type of profile has fared in the past.
• These teams hear the chatter for two straight weeks everywhere about how one team is much better than the other and there can be some psychological effect (impossible to quantify of course). Maybe underdogs of this nature game plan differently and attack in ways that a favorite might not? Who knows, but I think it’s important to at least understanding the context and history.
• There have only been 13 other SB matchups with a team as an underdog of >3 points since 2000. 11 (85%) of those 13 underdogs covered the spread and 7 of the 13 won outright. Those underdogs covered by an average margin of +9.1 ppg, an incredible ATS margin.
• These teams won 54% of these SBs outright vs a pre game win expectancy of just 27%. It has been since the 2006 Super Bowl that one of these large favorites have covered the game. I do think it is important to at least consider why that would be the case. For one, the public definitely has a much stronger say in this number and where it goes vs any other game all season. Also, to get this point the underdog had to of done something well to get here. Its very rare for a team to not only get to the Playoffs but then also fluke their way into three victories. In this case, the Patriots have lost just three games all season and none by more than 7 points. The Seahawks have lost three games and none by more than four points. This is only the 2nd time in the last 25 SBs where both teams come in not losing a game all year by more than 7 points. To me this has tight game written all over it.
• While there has been a ton of scrutiny (me included) about the Patriots soft schedule, to their credit, there has to be something said to continually exceeding market expectations. They finished the season 13-6-1 ATS, 2^nd in the NFL (Seattle #1) and covered by an average of over 6 ppg (also 2^nd to SEA). They finished the Playoffs 2-1 ATS and the only non cover in the CC came by just 0.5 point. It’s one thing to beat bad teams on your schedule, it is another to dismantle most of them.
• Based on success rate of opponents, the Patriots schedule ranked 32^nd while the Seahawks faced the 3^rd toughest SOS in the NFL.
• Based on opposing QB EPA, the Patriots defense has faced the 2^nd easiest schedule in the NFL while the Seahawks a league average opposing QB schedule (16^th).
• Sam Darnold has faced the 6^th easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses by EPA while Drake Maye the 3rd easiest.   
• Not only do we have the two best teams against the spread, but we have the two best records in the NFL meeting up. It’s the #1 ranked DVOA team (SEA) and #9 Patriots. These are absolutely two deserving teams from each conference.
• This game is being played in Santa Clara, CA and in February, most any sort of weather is possible. A week out, the weather does look pretty ideal (mid 60s and sunny). I personally prefer outdoor games to one that is indoors, but we have not seen an outdoor Super Bowl since the 2020 season when the Bucs blew out the Chiefs.
• Only 4 of the 10 Super Bowls played outdoors since 2000 have gone over the total. Only one of those games (02 TB/OAK) generated more than 51 total points in the game. That game ended 48-21 but included a blocked punt TD and two pick 6s for the Bucs.

Coaching Matchup:

• Mike Macdonald has been awesome this year and has been a top defensive NFL coach ever since his days as DC for the Ravens. I don’t expect him to deviate at all from his season long success on defense. OC Klint Kubiak is in line to be a HC next season but first has to game plan for the Patriots. He has been excellent with his usage of play action and creative ways to get JSN among others continually open. This is a smart staff but also one that does not have much experience in playing in the Super Bowl. Kubiak was the pass game coordinator in 2023 for the 49ers when they lost to the Chiefs but otherwise it’s a green staff.
• However, the coaching advantage for this Super Bowl has to be on the Patriots side. Mike Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels are as experienced a duo from a coaching perspective in the Super Bowl that you will ever find. Just the knowledge on how and what to prepare for is invaluable for their players. I also love the motivational aspect of being the underdog for two weeks and a guy like Vrabel hammering that into their heads. Don’t discount the nobody is picking you angle that lights a fire into this team. Lets not forget Vrabel comes from the Patriots who were huge underdogs to the Rams in Brady’s first Super Bowl and to a man said it helped motivate them to win that game. I also think McDaniels experience as a play caller will be enormous for a young QB like Drake Maye. Don’t discount at least one trick play that the Patriots have not shown this season. Remember, McDaniels ran offenses in the Super Bowl that routinely used Julian Edelman in the run game and actually had Tom Brady run a route and get a pass thrown to him in the Super Bowl. As underdogs, I absolutely believe something is coming.

NE with the ball:

• The Patriots rank #2 in PPG on offense and is tied with the Seahawks for 5^th with 65% of their games going over their team total (65%). It should be noted, however, that their opponents have allowed the 3^rd highest rate (58%) of other opponents going over their team total as well. So the Pats are going over at a high rate but doing so against relatively poor defensive competition. The Seahawks defense ranks #1 in lowest PPG allowed (17.8) in the NFL and have allowed the 2^nd lowest rate of opposing offenses to exceed their team total this season (29%). HOU, DEN and NO are the only other defenses that NE has faced this season that allowed a top 10 lowest opposing team total over rate this season.
• New England ranks 5^th in neutral game pass rate and when adjusted for opponent, sits 3^rd highest in the league. The Seattle defense allows a league average level pass rate in neutral situations. Against other strong run defenses like Tampa, New Orleans and Baltimore, we saw the Pats increase their pass rate in the 70% range.
• Drake Maye has been awesome all season but especially in the regular season, finishing #1 in EPA per drop back. Unfortunately, vs much tougher defenses in the Playoffs, he has looked like a completely different QB. Among 15 qualified Playoff QBs, Maye ranks 11^th in success rate and 10^th in EPA per drop back. Adjusting for opposing defenses faced in the Playoffs, Maye generated an EPA that finished in the 67^th, 33^rd and 21^st percentile in those games against those defenses. So only the 67^th percentile gm vs the Chargers represented an above average game allowed by those defenses to Maye.
• The Seattle pass defense has been outstanding all season, ranking 4^th best in success rate and 5^th in EPA allowed. Their secret sauce is that they are able to generate pressure (top 10 in the NFL) while rarely blitzing (bottom 10 rate). They generate the 4^th highest pressure rate when not blitzing. Then they use their elite CBs and rookie S Nick Emmanwori can be used as a quasai LB and stop the run when opponents try and run against a perceived light box.
• It hasn’t all been Maye’s fault as the OL has been a collective turnstile against these defenses. He has been pressured on 30% of drop backs although Maye deserves some of that blame as he has taken an incredible 15 sacks on those 31 drop backs. His 45% pressure to sack rate is far and away the highest in the Playoffs. He has also scrambled on four of those pressures as well.
• The Patriots have allowed a top five pressure rate from interior pressures so the likes of DT Byron Murphy can cause issues for New England’s offense.
• The run game has been very ineffective for NE all season although RB Rhamondre Stevenson has played better in the 2^nd half of the season. The issue is the blocking just can’t create enough without the RBs getting hit behind the line. That is a major problem as Seattle’s run defense not only ranks #1 in the NFL this season but one of the better run defense’s in recent history.
• Not only has the Seahawks defense allowed the lowest ypc to RBs this season but they have done so while facing a top 5 toughest schedule of opposing RBs by ypc. They also rank #1 in rush yards vs expected and 3^rd in yards after contact. All while using a stacked front at the 2^nd lowest rate in the NFL.
• Denver, Houston, New Orleans and Cleveland are the other top 10 run defenses that Stevenson has faced this season. Stevenson went for 25-71, 16-70, 14-34 and 13-18 in those games. He generated just a 29.8% success rate in those games on his 68 attempts. Rookie Treyveon Henderson did not fare any better, rushing for 10-75, 9-27, 12-25 and 3-5 in those contests. His 35% success rate was much better than Stevenson but it should be noted that Henderson has been horrendous in the Playoffs. He has rushed the ball 24 times for a grand total of 57 yards and a miniscule 13% success rate in the Playoffs.
• Versus light boxes, Stevenson ranks just 35^th and Henderson 38^th among 48 qualified RBs in rush yards vs expected. Stevenson ranks dead last in success rate vs a light box like the Seahawks use while Henderson ranks 16^th. Henderson has 8 10+ yard rushes on 57 attempts vs a light box. His speed certainly gives him a shot to break one or two off that can help lift this Patriots attack. No defense has allowed fewer 10+ yard runs all season than the Seahawks.
• Stevenson completely dominated but snap share and attempt share in the CC game vs Denver with a 94%-6% snap share advantage. That seemed to be an outlier as essentially saw a 60-40 split in the two prior Playoff games and 47-41 split in week 18 and even 52-48 split in favor of Henderson in week 17.
• The Seattle defense employs a zone heavy coverage approach (5^th highest rate) and uses two high coverage with the middle of the field open at the 6^th highest rate). Other defenses that employ similar coverage schemes this season that the Patriots have faced include the Bills, Titans and Chargers.
• Maye ranks #2 in the NFL in EPA per droback vs zone coverage and #1 in ypa (8.8). He does have 9 INTs vs zone coverage while he has thrown just one vs man. He does rank at the top in explosive pass rate whether its against man or zone. He does check down against zone coverage twice as often as vs man (13% vs 6.5%), although most QBs checkdown more vs zone. Interestingly, Maye is solely responsible for the lowest percentage of sacks taken in the NFL when facing man coverage but vs zone is solely responsible for sacks at a league average rate. His scramble rate is much higher vs man (#1 at 13%) than zone (#3 at 9%).
• Stefon Diggs (18%), Hunter Henry (14%) and Mack Hollins (10%) are the team leaders in target share vs zone coverage this season. Boutte is 4^th at less than 10% but the first read shares are in the same exact order as well. I will note that when I filter specifically for 2 high coverage looks this season, the one Patriots player who sees a significant increase in target share is Treveyon Henderson who goes from 7.6% vs man to 11% vs 2 high coverage. That may just have been circumstantial but something worth noting. Henderson is a tough case bc he has had a couple of monster games that showed off his explosiveness (14-148-2 TD rush yards vs BUF and 14-147-2 TD vs TB) but also a bunch of duds along the way. He had a six game stretch from weeks 9-15 where he was seeing double digit target share in all but one of those games and started to break out overall. However, here are his target shares since week 16: 2%, 0, 0, 4%, 8%, 0. I certainly see scenarios with extra time to prep, that McDaniels tries his best to get Henderson out in space and utilize his track speed against this defense. I just don’t know how to predict exactly how that will work. He has struggled in pass protection at times this season and it is conceivable the Pats want to keep Stevenson in the game more often to help. Henderson is so explosive and this offense needs that to help move the ball against a sticky defense that a boom or bust outcome is a strong possibility for Henderson.
• Seattle has allowed the highest target share in the NFL to RBs this season. Buffalo and Cincinnati are other defenses that the Pats have faced that allow a top 5 target share to RBs. Maye targeted his RBs 21%, 18% and 27% in those games which far outpaces their 17.2% in all other games. Henderson saw at least 3 targets in each of those three games going 2-13, 2-3 and 3-15 in those instances. Stevenson only saw 7 total targets in those games. This could also be a rare game where the Patriots are trailing and in a game state where throwing is exceeding expectations. The Pats have lost three games this season and Henderson has seen a total of 12 targets (at least 3 per game) and at least 13 yards in those games.
• Henderson has 8 games of 3+ receptions and two games with 6 receptions. Again, in a potential trailing game state, Henderson alternative over receptions is worth a look.
• Considering Henderson’s reception prop its at 0.5 with heavy heavy juice (-181 to -200 in some cases) the yardage prop of just 2.5 to 3.5 with normal juice is certainly the better option. The odds of catching a pass but it being less than 2-4 yards is fairly low. Of the 15 games this season where he has caught a pass, only one saw less than 3 yards and three less than 4 yards.
• Only 46% of opposing QBs throw to their first read vs SEA, 6^th lowest rate in the NFL. Interestingly, again SEA allows the 6^th lowest 2^nd read rate in the league. So often times we see multiple reads or dump offs vs this defense bc they drop so many guys and force QBs to just throw underneath. QBs also scramble at the 6^th highest rate bc of this so Maye certainly could be running a lot on Sunday. Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are other defenses that Maye has faced who allow a top 10 scramble rate. He ran it 10-66, 10-31, 8-62 and 5-41 in those four games. There is no question in my mind that in a game where NE will not be able to run the ball and likely see minimal separation among his slower WRs that Maye should scramble a lot. However, the big question mark is whether his “injury” to his shoulder inhibits some of that.
• Seattle has not faced a lot of scrambling QBs this season. Maye averages 26.5 rush yards per game and SEA has only faced two other QBs (Daniels and Kyler) who average over 20 yards per game. Kyler ran it 5-41 and Daniels 10-51 in those games. The Seahawks faced the 4^th lowest set of expected opposing rush yards per game from QBs. Seattle allowed the 2^nd highest rush yards per game vs expected (+6.9 yards per game). 70% of opposing QBs ran for a higher figure than their season average excluding games vs the Seattle defense.

SEA with the ball:

• Seattle has been a run heavy offense all season. They rank 30^th in neutral game pass rate, at just over 53%. They have not cleared 64% in any single game all season, the only team in the NFL that can say that. In the last four games, they have thrown the ball in neutral situations, just barely more than 50%.
• Seattle ranks #1 in the NFL, averaging 29.2 ppg. However, that figure is skewed due defensive and special teams points. Just from their offense, the Seahawks figure drops to 26.1, 7^th in the league. They have gone over their team total in 68% of games, 2^nd highest rate in the NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed just 17.3 ppg, 2^nd lowest in the NFL, and an astonishing 15% of opposing offenses have exceeded their team total, lowest in the NFL. SEA has faced HOU, MIN and JAX as the only other top 10 defenses when it comes to lowest points allowed on the season. SEA scored 27, 20 and 19 offensive points in those games.
• Seattle sits 10^th in EPA on offense, 6^th on drop backs and 17^th in the run game. They have faced a league average schedule. New England’s defense ranks 5^th in EPA, 4^th vs the pass and 11^th vs the run. The Patriots have faced the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses by EPA and the 2^nd easiest vs QBs. Seattle has faced two other top five EPA defenses in the Texans and Vikings. The Seattle offense struggled vs both, generating just a 26^th and 29^th percentile season game against those defenses.
• The Seahawks have thrived on success on early downs as they rank #4 in the NFL in success rate on 1^st and 2^nd downs and #1 thru the air. They are just 15^th in EPA on 3^rd and 4^th downs. New England’s defense has not been great on those early downs ranking just 19^th in success rate and 21^st thru the air. Where the Patriots have excelled is on those late  3^rd and 4^th downs where they rank #1 in the NFL in lowest success rate allowed thru the air (32%). Interestingly, the NE defense sits 31^st in rush success rate allowed on late downs, at 73%.
• Its important for the Seahawks offense to get ahead of the chains on those early downs bc whenever they’ve been in 3^rd and medium-long situations (6+ yards), they have not been nearly as effective. They are 16^th in the NFL converting those 3^rd downs. The Patriots defense is 4^th best at limiting conversions on those longer 3^rd downs. On the shorter 3^rd downs (1-5 yards), Seattle’s offense is 4^th best in the NFL while the Patriots defense ranks bottom 10. It is hugely important for the Patriots defense to slow down Seattle on those early downs, forcing the Seahawks to get away from their strong play action passing game that has been so effective. When defenses know the Seahawks and Darnold have to throw, the less effective Seattle has been on offense.
• The Seahawks under OC Klint Kubiak, use a ton of 12 (1 RB, 2 TE) and 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE)  while employing 11 (3 WRs, 1 TE) at the 4^th lowest rate. They use 12 at the 11^th highest rate in the league (28%) and rank #1 in the NFL in EPA when throwing out of that formation. The Patriots defense is essentially league average defending 12 this season.
• The Seahawks relies on play action, especially off those heavier formations, and rank 5^th in EPA in throws using PA. JSN has been a monster in most every category this season but he sees almost a 40% target share when Darnold uses PA passes. The Patriots defense ranks 2^nd best in EPA against PA, which makes this a fantastic matchup.
• The Patriots are pretty diverse on defense when it comes to coverage schemes but they have really ratcheted up their blitz rate in these Playoffs. In the regular season, their 28% blitz rate ranked 13 the in the league. However, in these three Playoff games, the Patriots have blitzed 34% of the time. Darnold is 11^th in the NFL vs the blitz by EPA. Darnold has been elite vs Man coverage (6^th best EPA, #1 in YPA), moreso than Zone (14^th in EPA), so maybe the Pats lean slightly more to zone type coverage.
• The Seattle offensive line, thought to be a major issue by many including me prior to the season, have fared pretty well overall. Their starting Tackles, Abe Lucas and Charles Cross, have been excellent but their interior has been leaky. Between rookie G Gabe Zabel and G Anthony Bradford, neither ranks inside the top 50 Guards in the NFL in PFF pass block grade. In fact, Bradford is a major concern, as his 35 pass block grade sits 82^nd out of 85 qualified Guards. Center Jalen Sundell sits 23^rd among qualified Centers as well. Considering the Patriots strong suit on defense is the interior between Milton Williams, Kyhiris Tonga, Corey Durden and Christian Barmore, that is where things can potentially blow up for Darnold and this offense. Durden, Williams and Barmore all rank top 15 in pass rush win rate among NFL DTs. If the Patriots are to really slow down this offense, they can wreck things on the interior.
• Williams has been a monster for two seasons now and his pass rush win rate ranks 8th best among NFL DL this season and his 14% pressure rate is excellent. He has only six sacks and has converted just 11% of those pressure into sack, well below median levels at the position. He certainly can see positive sack regression at any time including the SB. His 17 pressures in three Playoff games rank 3rd most among all defenders and his 19% pressure rate ranks 2nd best. To be 14-1 to lead the game in sacks is not in line with his upside.
• The three best interior pressure defenses that the Seahawks faced this season have been the Rams, Titans and Vikings. In those five games, the Seattle pass offense generated EPA games that were in the 65^th, 29^th, 10^th, 20^th and 90th percentiles this season.
• Whether the Patriots can get pressure on Darnold is massive considering he goes from 28^th in the NFL in EPA when under pressure to 8^th best when not facing pressure.
• The Patriots sit 4^th in the NFL in EPA allowed per drop back this season. Yes they have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL but even after an adjustment, this is still a top 10 unit. Darnold has faced three other pass defenses that rank top 9 (I’ll explain that cut off in a minute) in the Texans, Vikings and Jags. He was atrocious in two of those games vs the Texans and Vikings (-0.212 and -0.234 EPA per drop back with 32% and 44% success rates) while generating solid numbers vs the Jags (+0.376 EPA and 45% success). To be fair, the Jags really relied on forcing turnovers to generate their lofty EPA ranking and are not nearly as impressive from a success standpoint (13^th). I mentioned only cutting these off at top 9 bc the Rams sit 10^th in the league and Darnold faced that defense three times. We saw a dramatic drop off of the defense from the first half of the season when they played like a top five unit to one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL from week 12 on. When he faced the Rams as a top unit he was awful throwing 4 INTs and generating -0.236 EPA per drop back. Even in their 2^nd Rams matchup in week 16, his -0.208 EPA was atrocious as well. Against the Texans, Vikings and the first two Rams matchups, Darnold generated an EPA that ranked in the 32^nd, 35^th, 14^th and 23^rd percentiles of games by QBs against those defenses this season. He did generate an 86^th percentile outcome vs the Jags. Darnold has shown clear sensitivity to the level of defense he faced this season.
• JSN is very likely to see shadow coverage from elite CB Christian Gonzalez in this game. Gonzalez is a top 25 PFF graded coverage CB although everyone realizes he is a much better player than that grade. He ranks 10^th best in lowest EPA allowed while in coverage as the nearest defender. Among DBs with at least 150 coverage snaps, he has allowed the 12^th lowest yac per reception and has been elite at forcing tight window throws. All this to say that JSN has been awesome but has rarely faced a top level #1 CB like Gonzalez this season. Jaycee Horn and Derek Stingley are probably the best he faced this season. He did go 3-49-1 TD on four targets when matched up vs Stingley and 3-27-0 vs Horn. But having someone like Gonzalez should at least control a potential eruption spot for JSN. While Gonzalez typically does not shadow when WRs get shifted to the slot, I wonder if they make an exception in this game. Or if they even adopt old Belichick principles from back in the day when he would bracket #1 WRs and use his top CB like Gonzalez on the #2 WR.
• The Patriots have not faced a ton of #1 top WRs this season but the closest you can get is Drake London (9-118), Chris Olave (6-98), Zay Flowers (7-84) and Tet McMillan (4-64).
• Then it is a matter of can guys like Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed take advantage of the likes of Carlton Davis and company. They didn’t have Shaheed in the game vs Houston and outside of JSN, Kupp was limited to 1-32 yards and Darnold fed mostly the RBs and TEs. It should be noted that rookie TE Elijah Arroyo caught 4-42 in that game. Against Horn and Carolina, everyone was limited for the Seahawks in the pass game. JSN saw 12 of 27 Darnold targets and outside of AJ Barner’s 3-43, nobody caught more than 12 yards worth of balls.
• We may see Darnold really try and attack the LBs for NE in the pass game via the RBs and TEs. The Patriots with the strength being their CBs with Gonzalez and Davis, funnel a lot of targets to the RBs and TEs. They have allowed the 6^th lowest target share to WRs this season but the 5^th most combined to TEs and RBs. SF is probably the closest comp in that regard, although they were so severely lacking in talent at the end of the year its hard to use that comparison. Against the Niners, Seattle targeted its RBs 14%, 31% and 25% in those games but TEs just 14%, 23% and then 0.
• I would expect Kenneth Walker to see his fair share of screens and targets while backup RB George Holani could be involved on 3^rd downs as well. He saw 4 targets on 17 routes last week without Charbonnet. I am really interested to see if Arroyo gets a bit more run and usage this week, one game after coming back from a long layoff due to injury in the CC game. He was activated for the CC game but did not play. In the middle of the season he had become a real factor and was running routes on 40-50% of snaps before he tailed off prior to the injury. I could see him being used in the red zone potentially or just some key spots.
• Speaking of Walker, he is the bell cow at RB for the Seahawks following the loss of Charbonnet. As most who have followed Walker’s career realize he is the ultimate boom or bust RB. He ranks 26^th in success rate but 14^th in ypc. He ranks #3 in the NFL with 37 10+ yard runs this season and 22 have come outside of the tackles. Walker bounces so many of his runs outside but the Pats defense is elite at defending outside runs. They rank 3^rd best in the NFL in adjusted ypc to RBs on outside runs. NE has faced one of the toughest schedules of opposing RBs when it comes to ypc to outside runs and have totally shut them down. They have faced elite big play outside runners like Devon Achane, Derrick Henry, James Cook and Bijan Robinson. They gave up games of 11-30, 15-49, 12-46, 22-107 and 18-128 to those RBs.
• It’s important to note that the 22-107 and 18-128 games to Henry and Cook came with Milton Williams out of the game. Williams missed five games this season and the run defense suffered without him. With Williams in the lineup, no RB rushed for more than 53 yards on them (Sean Tucker)  and they allowed just 3.0 ypc to RBs. In six games without him, they allowed 5.2 ypc to RBs and four different RBs ran for 100+ yards.
• Walker has faced four other top 8 run defenses (HOU, MIN, JAX and IND) by ypc to RBs and rushed for 17-66, 13-56, 9-17 and 10-34 (3.5 ypc aggregate) in those games. He put up 3.5 ypc vs an “expected” 3.9 ypc those defenses allowed during the season. Walker has underperformed all year vs good rush defenses and the Patriots run defense is being dinged a bit for those games Williams was out of the lineup. We may see Walker really struggle from down to down but potentially hit 1-2 longer runs.
• Can Darnold step up and make up for a likely lack of run game? In those other games vs top run defenses, the offense has struggled overall. He had some mediocre to poor games on a relative basis when the run game has been stymied. He generated just a 47th (IND), 29th (MIN) and 16th (HOU) precentile EPA game against those top 8 run defenses. Against JAX, he posted good efficiency numbers (89th percentile EPA) but the Seahawks could only muster 20 total points. Vs top 8 run defenses, the SEA offense scored 18, 20, 19 and 27 points in those games with just 6 total offensive TDs in those four games.

Special Teams: Based on how good both teams have been in the return game, it’s important to point out that both are relatively good Special Teams units. These teams rank 1-2 in punt return DVOA while Seattle ranks 1st in covering kicks and 6th best in kick returns. The Seahawks have dervied such great field position from kick returns and Shaheed punt TDs, that this could end up being the difference in the outcome of the game. Marcus Jones may be the best punt returner in the league and this will be the first time all year that Seattle will be facing a better return unit.

Final Prediction: I know the buzz isn’t really there for this matchup and some think Seattle should roll but I absolutely do not see that in this game. Seattle has not faced the Coach-QB-Defense trio like they will see with the Pats on Sunday. While Maye has not played up to his MVP level in the Playoffs he has faced three major step ups in defenses and all were played in tough weather conditions. He did make enough plays, if not his arm but with his legs, to get the job done and covered two games easily. I do think it’s a lower scoring game as neither team will be able to run the ball at all, NE does not have the speed and playmaking on the outside to consistently threaten this elite SEA secondary and the Pats are one of the best defenses Darnold has faced all season (and has struggled vs other elite defenses). NE has the clear edge in experience from a coaching perspective and we know that Vrabel is probably the best HC in modern NFL as an underdog. As an underdog, Vrabel teams are 58% ATS and have won SU 14% more games than expected. 62% ATS and have won 24.5% more games than expected as underdogs >3 points. With Gonzalez spending a lot of time on JSN and the Pats elite run defense slowing down Walker on early downs, can Darnold really step up to the point that he can solely make plays enough to cover such a large number? I am skeptical but do think it will be a close, lower scoring game. I will go with a tight NE win 21-20.