Super Bowl Trends and Playoff Bracket

Historical Super Bowl Participant Trends:

Super Bowl Participants:

The last 18 Super Bowl Participants (Last 9 Super Bowls) and 24 of the last 26, finished the regular season in the top 10 in EPA per drop back. One that didn’t were the 2015 Broncos (25th in pass EPA, however, they ranked #1 in pass EPA on defense. The only other team that is an outlier in the last decade was the 2012 Ravens, who finished 15th in pass EPA on offense and 13th on defense.

 

Since 2018, every Super Bowl participant besides KC in 2023 and 2024 has finished top 10 in explosive pass rate (15+ yards) in the regular season:

2024: PHI: 6, KC: 27

2023: SF: 1, KC: 20

2022: KC: 2, PHI: 1

2021: CIN: 5, LAR: 2

2020: TB: 4, KC: 5

2019: SF: 1, KC: 9

2018: LAR: 3, NE: 9

 

For anyone participating in a playoff bracket contest I have taken a stab at a bracket that I think is very possible but not complete chalk. I am very happy in taking the Rams over the Seahawks in the NFC. Not much controversy there, the Rams check every box you want in a SB team. The AFC is an unmitigated disaster. It’s impossible to be confident with any path and could justify any outcome (besides the Steelers of course). I think you either just take Maye and the Pats thru with their league leading passing offense, Superman Josh Allen or dig a bit deeper with the single best unit in the AFC, the Texans defense. Just based on their path (easiest round 1 opponent + potential great matchup at home vs Chargers bad OL or DEN/NE as weak top seeds), I think Houston can get to the SB. I am not confident at all but they do have the best pass D in the NFL.

Bracket Challenge