Wildcard Week- 2026 - ClevAnalytics

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LOS ANGELES RAMS (-10, 46.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

SATURDAY 4:30 PM EST Week 19

▸ ATS Pool Pick

Rams -10.5

Under 46.5

▸ Analysis

I am really tempted to back the Rams here but the number has gotten away from me so I will pass on the side. My model makes this 10 on the dot so nothing to do here for me. I also am nervous with the potential for lots of rain and wind in this game in Charlotte which would bring the underdog much more into play.
I could see not even mess with the standard spread and only take a shot at a very deep alt line like -19.5 to -23.5 or something if interested in going that route. That’s probably the only way I would potentially play it.
I think the Rams could just murder Carolina and the number not even come close to mattering but Mcvay loves to sit on the ball late in games with a lead and considering they could end up travelling next week to SEA, making sure they don’t go full force in the 2^nd half of a blowout is always possible. And of course the weather could mute a huge Stafford game.
The Panthers are also a very high variance team that has proven they can find a way to beat elite teams like the Rams and Packers. They also can lose by 30.
Purely based on my blended 4^th quarter win probability metric, this is a complete mismatch between the #1 ranked team in the Rams and the Panthers at #25. Carolina has just a 37% expected win percentage when only applying the blended 4^th quarter season long metric. Going back 25 years in the my database, this Panthers team comes in as the 3^rd worst Playoff team ever. What’s funny is the worst team is the 2011 Denver Broncos led by Tim Tebow, that beat the Steelers in a big upset in that Wildcard year.
The gap between the 79% Rams and 37% Panthers based on this metric is the single largest gap in my 25 year Playoff database in the Wildcard round so certainly worthy of this spread. Of the seven other largest mismatches, only the 2011 Broncos won or covered. Those teams lost the cover by 6 ppg.
The first matchup between these teams was completely fluky. Yes the Panthers somehow won 31-28 but the Rams outgained Carolina 61%-39% by success rate and an absurd 7.5-5.9 on a yards per play basis. Two INTs, including a pick six, and one late fumble cost the Rams.
To put that success rate gap into perspective, there were only 12 other games with a larger gap this season in the NFL. Only one other team (Week 18 CIN v CLE) lost that game and the average margin was +21.6 ppg. Without the huge turnovers, this game was likely a major blowout.
The Rams generated a 16% explosive play rate and ran it 21-152 yards. Blake Corum was awesome, running it just seven times but for 81 yards. Kyren Williams 13-72-1TD.
The Panthers run defense has struggled, sitting 26^th in yards before contact and 28^th in stuff rate. Carolina has allowed the 2^nd highest rate of alternative (20%+) rush yards per game allowed to starting RBs this season.
Considering they need to deal with the scarier part of the Rams offense, their pass game, the Rams might just be able to run it down their throats again. Add the weather concerns and both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams rush props are interesting. I will likely look to some Corum rush props including some long shot alts.
Stafford is awesome when he is not under pressure and the Panthers rank bottom five in the league in all pass rush metrics. It remains to be seen if the Rams get back G Kevin Dotson but the Rams have at least still been top 12 in rush success rate without him.
The Panthers run zone at a top five rate and 3^rd in Cover 3 at 40%.
Puka is 4^th in the NFL in target share vs Cover 3 and #1 with a bullet in yards per route. Adams ranks top 12 as well so both guys can eat here. TE Colby Parkinson is 12/12 in targets vs Cover 3 and top 10 in EPA per target. Out of nowhere WR Xavier Smith caught three balls for 83 yards in that game.
Bryce Young had such a fluky offensive game as well in their first matchup. The Panthers went 7-15 on 3^rd downs and 3-3 on 4^th This is a team that ranked 25^th in 3^rd down conversions at 36%. On two of those 4^th downs, Young threw 30+ yard TDs so I imagine the Rams will not play similar coverages in those high leverage downs.
The Rams rank 26^th in RB targets allowed and 21^st in yards per target. The Panthers only threw five total attempts to their RBs so I would look for a bit more of that as the Rams concentrate more on stopping the outside WRs.
It will help getting back S Quentin Lake who has been out for two months for the Rams.
Overall, this Panthers offense has been among the worst in the NFL and have not generated a success rate above expectations (opposing D avg allowed) in nine weeks. They went from a top 10 rush offense by success rate to start the season to a bottom five unit.
Outside of continued extremely flukiness again, I am not sure this will be close.

▸ Trends

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	LA (O)	CAR (D)	CAR (O)	LA (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	3	24	25	6
Explosive Pass%	1	12	17	20
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	4	27	18	12
Explosive Rush%	3	15	22	7
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	1	24	8	20

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Matthew Stafford	Bryce Young
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	5	9
OL Pressure	4	22
Opp DL Pressure	31	7
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	4	30
Opp Blitz Rate	21	31

Team Ranks
	LA	CAR
Net Success	1	19
Offense Pace	2	27
Neutral Pass%	7	21
TO Margin	7	20
OFF TO EPA	14	22
DEF TO EPA	5	19

▸ Injuries & Status

Rams Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Terrance Ferguson	TE	Jan 10	Hamstring	Questionable
Jordan Whittington	WR	Jan 10	Head	Questionable
Davante Adams	WR	Jan 10	Hamstring	Questionable
Josh Wallace	CB	Jan 10		Questionable
Kevin Dotson	G	Jan 10		Questionable
Shaun Dolac	LB	Jan 10	Knee	Questionable
Quentin Lake	S	Jan 10	Elbow	Injured Reserve
Rob Havenstein	OT	Jan 10	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Keir Thomas	LB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve

Panthers Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Tershawn Wharton	DT	Jan 10		Questionable
Robert Rochell	CB	Jan 10		Questionable
Claudin Cherelus	LB	Jan 10		Questionable
Bobby Brown III	DT	Jan 10	Concussion	Questionable
David Moore	WR	Jan 10	Elbow	Injured Reserve
Robert Hunt	G	Jan 10	Biceps	Injured Reserve
Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	Feb 9	Fibula	Injured Reserve
Trevin Wallace	LB	Feb 9	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Chandler Zavala	G	Jan 10	Calf	Injured Reserve
Corey Thornton	CB	Feb 9	Fibula	Injured Reserve
Brady Christensen	G	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Patrick Jones II	LB	Feb 9	Back	Injured Reserve
Damarri Mathis	CB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Popo Aumavae	DT	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Jonathon Brooks	RB	Feb 9		Out

▸ Depth Charts

Rams Depth Chart
Offense
RT	Rob Havenstein
LWR	Davante Adams	Konata Mumpfield
RWR	Puka Nacua	Jordan Whittington
SWR	Xavier Smith	Tutu Atwell
LT	Alaric Jackson	D.J. Humphries
LG	Steve Avila
C	Coleman Shelton	Beaux Limmer
RG	Kevin Dotson	Justin Dedich
RT	Warren Mcclendon Jr.
TE	Tyler Higbee	Colby Parkinson
QB	Matthew Stafford	Jimmy Garoppolo
RB	Kyren Williams	Blake Corum
Defense
DE	Braden Fiske	Desjuan Johnson
NT	Poona Ford	Tyler Davis
DT	Kobie Turner	Ty Hamilton
LOLB	Byron Young	Josaiah Stewart
LILB	Nate Landman	Shaun Dolac
RILB	Omar Speights	Troy Reeder
ROLB	Jared Verse
LCB	Cobie Durant	Ahkello Witherspoon
SS	Kam Curl
FS	Jaylen Mccollough	Kamren Kinchens
RCB	Emmanuel Forbes Jr.	Darious Williams
NB	Josh Wallace	Roger Mccreary

Panthers Depth Chart
Offense
RG	Robert Hunt	Jake Curhan
LWR	Tetairoa Mcmillan	David Moore
RWR	Xavier Legette	Brycen Tremayne
SWR	Jalen Coker	Jimmy Horn Jr.
LT	Ikem Ekwonu	Brady Christensen
LG	Damien Lewis
C	Cade Mays	Nick Samac
RG	Austin Corbett	Jake Curhan
RT	Taylor Moton
TE	Tommy Tremble	Ja'Tavion Sanders
QB	Bryce Young	Andy Dalton
RB	Rico Dowdle	Chuba Hubbard
Defense
LDE	Derrick Brown	Bobby Brown Iii
NT	A'Shawn Robinson	Cam Jackson
RDE	Tershawn Wharton	Labryan Ray
LOLB	Nic Scourton	Trevis Gipson
LILB	Claudin Cherelus	Bam Martin-Scott
RILB	Christian Rozeboom	Krys Barnes
ROLB	D.J. Wonnum	Princely Umanmielen
LCB	Mike Jackson	Robert Rochell
SS	Tre'Von Moehrig	Demani Richardson
FS	Nick Scott	Lathan Ransom
RCB	Jaycee Horn	Akayleb Evans
NB	Chau Smith-Wade

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GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-1.5, 45.5)

SATURDAY 8:00 PM EST Week 19

▸ ATS Pool Pick

GB -1.5

Over 44.5

▸ Analysis

I am on the Packers ML at -120 or less. If your ML is higher than a cheaper -1.5 is ok. My numbers make this GB -2.5.
This is a matchup between a team in GB that clearly underachieved their final record based on my blended 4^th quarter win probabilities (-8%) vs a team in Chicago that continually won games late and overachieved their record greatly (+13.7%). Its essentially a 10.2 win team (GB) vs an 8.7 win team (CHI).
The question is how good is the Packers defense considering they’ve been pretty bad following the Parsons trade and how much of an edge does the home field in Chicago give the Bears. GB ranks 31^st in EPA and 30^th in success rate in the three games between weeks 15-17. I am excluding week 18 since it consisted mostly of backups but otherwise this includes the Denver game where Parsons got hurt and the two other full games without him.
The GB defense has been ripped up on the ground without Parsons, allowing a 52% and 55% success rate vs the Bears and Ravens. Chicago will certainly try and pound the ground game all night vs the Packers. I would look to Swift rush props as a possible over if you are not sold on the Packers here.
I like that the Packers are finally starting to get a bit more healthy than what we saw over that last few weeks of the season. The virtual bye week for GB in week 18 as well sitting all their starters is only a positive whereas the Bears played their hearts out in a late loss to the Bears. The defense was on the field for 72 plays and now are facing a fresher Packers team. To note, the Bears had a bye week very early this season in week 5.
Not only is Jordan Love back from his concussion in week 16 vs the Bears but RB Josh Jacobs got a few weeks off the fully rest and has declared that it’s the best he has felt all season. Backup RB Emmanuel Wilson had a monster game the last time these teams played (14-82) as well so if they need to run this week they will be able to lean on both guys. DE Lukas Van Ness is finally healthy and RT Zach Tom will be back for this game after missing the final couple of weeks.
Chicago’s defense continues to be a mirage, heavily influenced by great turnover luck. They rank 26^th in success rate and 21^st in EPA. If you exclude TOs, that EPA plummets to 30^th. They rank #1 in the NFL in EPA generated from TOs and lead with 33 turnovers caused. If you isolate the last seven games of the season, outside of their matchup vs Shedeur and the awful Browns offense, they have allowed a 75^th percentile or better offensive game to five of those six opposing offenses. If you exclude the Browns game, it’s the 2^nd worst defense in the NFL by success rate.
The first two matchups were classics and coin flips but Chicago clearly needed a miracle to beat the Packers at home in their week 16 matchup. The Packers lose Jordan Love after two drives then with Malik Willis take a 16-6 lead with 5m left in the game. Chicago kicked a FG with just under 2m left and then recovered a miracle onside kick before sending the game into OT at the end. Realistically, Green Bay had that game won.
The Bears have been particularly poor in the first half of games. They are just 7-10 ATS in the 1H of games this season but against good teams it has been even worse. Against Playoff teams + two games against a good Lions team, the Bears went just 1-6 ATS and trailed at the half by 14, 4, 11, 6, 7 and 13 points in those games. That includes trailing by 11 and 6 to these same Packers. Their lone 1H victory came on that black Friday in Philly.
In 10 drives with Love against this Bears defense this season, the Packers scored 31 points, punted just three times, generating 6.1 yards per play. I think the Packers can get off to another hot start and force the Bears to once again try and stage a comeback.
Based on my 4^th quarter win probability metric, the Packers are a significantly better team.
Chicago tied with DEN and NO with the most wins when sitting with <50% 4^th quarter win probability (4).
A blended 4^th quarter win probability gap like this has been brutal for the overachieving team like the Bears historically. These teams like GB cover at a 61% clip and win 13% above expectations. They are 78% ATS and win 33% above expectations when it’s a vet QB vs a first time playoff QB like Caleb.
Speaking of which, we also have a case of Caleb Williams making his first career Playoff start. Historically these first time Playoff QBs facing a veteran like Love has been a disaster. Teams are covering at a poor 35% clip over nearly 25 years with the first time QBs. When the QB is a very short underdog (2.5 or less) or a favorite, it’s even worse (29% ATS).

▸ Trends

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	GB (O)	CHI (D)	CHI (O)	GB (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	2	20	9	22
Explosive Pass%	6	32	7	7
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	21	21	6	18
Explosive Rush%	12	25	5	6
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	13	29	3	21

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Jordan Love	Caleb Williams
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	17	10
OL Pressure	19	26
Opp DL Pressure	23	6
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	2	9
Opp Blitz Rate	13	25

Team Ranks
	GB	CHI
Net Success	6	24
Offense Pace	20	6
Neutral Pass%	25	18
TO Margin	13	1
OFF TO EPA	3	2
DEF TO EPA	30	1

▸ Injuries & Status

Packers Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Malik Willis	QB	Jan 10		Questionable
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	Jan 10		Questionable
Zach Tom	OT	Jan 10		Questionable
Javon Bullard	S	Jan 10	Knee	Questionable
Bo Melton	CB	Jan 10	Knee	Questionable
Donovan Jennings	G	Feb 8	Neck	Injured Reserve
Savion Williams	WR	Feb 8	Foot/Illness	Injured Reserve
John Williams	G	Jan 10	Back	Out
Nick Niemann	LB	Jan 10	Pectoral	Injured Reserve
Zayne Anderson	S	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Nate Hobbs	CB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Kamal Hadden	CB	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Jordon Riley	DT	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Micah Parsons	DE	Feb 9	Acl	Injured Reserve
Kristian Welch	LB	Jan 25	Ankle	Injured Reserve
John FitzPatrick	TE	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
MarShawn Lloyd	RB	Jan 17	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Devonte Wyatt	DT	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Elgton Jenkins	C	Jan 10		Injured Reserve
Tucker Kraft	TE	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Travis Glover	OT	Feb 9	Shoulder	Injured Reserve

Bears Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	S	Jan 10		Questionable
Rome Odunze	WR	Jan 10		Questionable
Ozzy Trapilo	OT	Jan 10		Questionable
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka	DE	Jan 10		Questionable
Nick McCloud	CB	Jan 10		Questionable
Ty Summers	LB	Jan 10	Foot	Questionable
Noah Sewell	LB	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Kyler Gordon	CB	Jan 10	Groin	Injured Reserve
Roschon Johnson	RB	Jan 10	Thumb	Injured Reserve
Dayo Odeyingbo	DE	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Shemar Turner	DT	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Braxton Jones	OT	Jan 10	Knee	Injured Reserve
Kiran Amegadjie	OT	Jan 10	Elbow	Injured Reserve
Zah Frazier	CB	Feb 9		Out
Terell Smith	CB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Deion Hankins	RB	Feb 9	Shoulder/Quadriceps	Injured Reserve

▸ Depth Charts

Packers Depth Chart
Offense
C	Elgton Jenkins
TE	Tucker Kraft
LWR	Christian Watson	Savion Williams
RWR	Romeo Doubs	Matthew Golden
SWR	Jayden Reed	Dontayvion Wicks
LT	Rasheed Walker	Darian Kinnard
LG	Aaron Banks	Donovan Jennings
C	Sean Rhyan
RG	Anthony Belton
RT	Zach Tom	Jordan Morgan
TE	Luke Musgrave
QB	Jordan Love	Malik Willis
RB	Josh Jacobs	Emanuel Wilson
Defense
LDE	Rashan Gary	Brenton Cox Jr.
LDT	Karl Brooks	Warren Brinson
RDT	Colby Wooden	Nazir Stackhouse
RDE	Kingsley Enagbare	Lukas Van Ness
WLB	Edgerrin Cooper	Ty'Ron Hopper
MLB	Quay Walker	Isaiah Mcduffie
LCB	Keisean Nixon	Shemar Bartholomew
SS	Xavier Mckinney	Kitan Oladapo
FS	Evan Williams	Johnathan Baldwin
RCB	Carrington Valentine	Trevon Diggs
NB	Javon Bullard

Bears Depth Chart
Offense
LT	Braxton Jones
LWR	Rome Odunze	Jahdae Walker
RWR	Dj Moore	Olamide Zaccheaus
SWR	Luther Burden Iii	Devin Duvernay
LT	Ozzy Trapilo
LG	Joe Thuney	Jordan Mcfadden
C	Drew Dalman	Ryan Bates
RG	Jonah Jackson	Luke Newman
RT	Darnell Wright
TE	Colston Loveland	Cole Kmet
QB	Caleb Williams	Tyson Bagent
RB	D'Andre Swift	Roschon Johnson
Defense
LDE	Montez Sweat	Dominique Robinson
LDT	Gervon Dexter Sr.	Chris Williams
RDT	Grady Jarrett	Andrew Billings
RDE	Austin Booker	Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
WLB	T.J. Edwards	Amen Ogbongbemiga
MLB	Tremaine Edmunds	D'Marco Jackson
LCB	Nahshon Wright	Tyrique Stevenson
SS	Jaquan Brisker	Jonathan Owens
FS	Kevin Byard Iii	Elijah Hicks
RCB	Jaylon Johnson	Nick Mccloud
NB	C.J. Gardner-Johnson	Josh Blackwell

▸

BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5, 51.5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

SUNDAY 1:00 PM EST Week 19

▸ ATS Pool Pick

JAX +1.5

U 51.5

▸ Analysis

My season long numbers certainly don’t come anywhere near this but I understand that the Jags offense is totally different from the first half of the season.
Even if I use my more recent data (L6 weeks) I still fall well short here. The Jags have been one of if not the most pass heavy teams to end the year but that is actually playing into the Bills defensive strength. BUF wants you to run the ball and they’ve been gashed all year. Will the Jags take the bait? That will be a big question in this game.
They have been great thru the air of late (#2 in DB EPA since week 14) but are also just 31st in rush EPA in that same stretch. On the season, BUF sits 31st in rush EPA and 8th in drop back EPA. So essentially if JAX tries to go pass heavy, they will play into the Bills strength but if they decide to run the ball more than they have recently, how successful will they be? Either way that does play into this not being as favorable a matchup as this total indicates on the Jags side.
For BUF, this offense has been vastly overrated all year. For one, they are a really slow paced, methodical offense that relies heavily on their run game. BUF ranks 24th in neutral game pass rate over the last six weeks and have leaned on that run game to win games.
The Jags defense has faced the single most pass heavy set of opponents all season and outside of the shitty Jets, have not faced an offense that runs at a top 12 rate since week 6 and the Seahawks.
So the Jags games have been track meets of late and a lot of that is just based on opponents.
I think this game will be much more run heavy and slow than expected and historically speaking, these Wildcard games in the 50s that are not played in the fast track of a dome, are way lower scoring than expected.
Only 40% of Wildcard games have gone over the total in games lined at 50+. Only two of 17 Wildcard games played outdoors with a higher total (47.5+) have gone over the total. Those games have gone under by nearly 6 ppg.
From a props perspective I do believe that TE Dalton Kincaid can have a solid game. He was such a big part of the early/mid season pass game and Allen’s only reliable target but he was continuously banged up late in the season. He looks to finally be healthy and faces a Jags defense that allowed the highest rate of TEs to go over their season yardage average and 2nd highest over their receptions.
The Jags run zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL and Kincaid has been Allen’s 2nd favorite target vs zone coverage
Buffalo has been really good limiting WRs this season and going up against the trio of Washington, Thomas and Meyers will be a chore. Some of it is purely bc the Bills are a run funnel but they do a very good job limiting explosives. BUF has allowed the 7th lowest yards per target to TEs and 6th lowest to WRs. They have also allowed the single lowest target share to TEs in the NFL even though they have faced a schedule of opposing TEs that target TEs at an above average rate (13th).
I know the Jags have seen great production from TE Brenton Strange of late but this is a tough matchup. They have faced 7 straight defensive opponents who cover TEs at a bottom 18 rate so his recent production looks inflated. BUF has allowed just one opposing starting TE to exceed their season reception average. They’ve allowed just one TE all year (Gesicki) to exceed 70 receiving yards and 4 receptions. Good TEs like Fannin (4-34), Goedert (3-8), Pitts (3-18), Schultz (1-8), Henry (1-18).
Where the Jags can really attack thru the air would be with their RBs, mainly Etienne. Buffalo has allowed the 2nd highest target share to RBs this season, however, the 8th lowest yards per target. So an Etienne reception over could be the look rather than yardage. In fact, if you want to get nuts with some out of the money SGPs, including Etienne over receptions, under yards along with Strange alt unders is worth a consideration with a Jags ML.

▸ Trends

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	BUF (O)	JAX (D)	JAX (O)	BUF (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	4	4	10	8
Explosive Pass%	5	6	8	10
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	2	7	19	31
Explosive Rush%	6	5	28	30
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	2	17	15	7

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Josh Allen	Trevor Lawrence
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	13	4
OL Pressure	3	17
Opp DL Pressure	18	10
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	17	14
Opp Blitz Rate	16	20

Team Ranks
	BUF	JAX
Net Success	4	9
Offense Pace	31	10
Neutral Pass%	28	10
TO Margin	10	4
OFF TO EPA	12	16
DEF TO EPA	15	2

▸ Injuries & Status

Bills Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Curtis Samuel	WR	Jan 17	Elbow	Injured Reserve
Ty Johnson	RB	Jan 11	Head	Questionable
Ed Oliver	DT	Jan 17	Biceps/Knee	Injured Reserve
Matt Prater	PK	Jan 11	Quadriceps	Questionable
Jordan Poyer	S	Jan 11		Questionable
DaQuan Jones	DT	Jan 11		Questionable
Terrel Bernard	LB	Jan 11		Questionable
Joey Bosa	DE	Jan 11		Questionable
Maxwell Hairston	CB	Jan 11	Ankle	Doubtful
Chase Lundt	OT	Jan 17	Knee	Injured Reserve
Tyler Bass	PK	Feb 9	Left Hip/Groin	Injured Reserve
Landon Jackson	DE	Jan 17	Knee	Injured Reserve
Dorian Strong	CB	Jan 17	Neck	Injured Reserve
Michael Hoecht	DE	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Taylor Rapp	S	Jan 17	Knee	Injured Reserve
Damar Hamlin	S	Jan 17	Pectoral	Injured Reserve
DeWayne Carter	DT	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Wande Owens	S	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve

Jaguars Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Patrick Mekari	G	Jan 11		Questionable
Cole Van Lanen	OT	Jan 11	Knee	Questionable
Jalen McLeod	LB	Jan 11	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Jourdan Lewis	CB	Feb 9	Foot	Injured Reserve
Jack Kiser	LB	Jan 17	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Travis Hunter	WR	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Caleb Ransaw	CB	Feb 9	Lower Body	Injured Reserve
Joshua Cephus	WR	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Cooper Hodges	OT	Jan 11	Knee	Out

▸ Depth Charts

Bills Depth Chart
Offense
LWR	Joshua Palmer	Keon Coleman
RWR	Tyrell Shavers	Curtis Samuel
SWR	Khalil Shakir	Elijah Moore
LT	Dion Dawkins	Tylan Grable
LG	David Edwards
C	Connor Mcgovern	Sedrick Van Pran-Granger
RG	O'Cyrus Torrence	Alec Anderson
RT	Spencer Brown	Chase Lundt
TE	Dawson Knox	Dalton Kincaid
QB	Josh Allen	Mitchell Trubisky
RB	James Cook Iii	Ray Davis
FB	Reggie Gilliam
Defense
LDE	Greg Rousseau	Javon Solomon
LDT	Daquan Jones	T.J. Sanders
RDT	Deone Walker	Phidarian Mathis
RDE	Joey Bosa	A.J. Epenesa
WLB	Matt Milano	Dorian Williams
MLB	Terrel Bernard	Shaq Thompson
LCB	Christian Benford	Maxwell Hairston
SS	Jordan Poyer	Jordan Hancock
FS	Cole Bishop	Sam Franklin Jr.
RCB	Tre'Davious White
NB	Taron Johnson	Cam Lewis

Jaguars Depth Chart
Offense
SWR	Travis Hunter
LWR	Brian Thomas Jr.	Tim Patrick
RWR	Jakobi Meyers	Dyami Brown
SWR	Parker Washington
LT	Cole Van Lanen
LG	Ezra Cleveland	Wyatt Milum
C	Robert Hainsey	Jonah Monheim
RG	Patrick Mekari	Walker Little
RT	Anton Harrison	Chuma Edoga
TE	Brenton Strange	Johnny Mundt
QB	Trevor Lawrence	Nick Mullens
RB	Travis Etienne Jr.	Bhayshul Tuten
Defense
LDE	Travon Walker	Dawuane Smoot
LDT	Davon Hamilton	Austin Johnson
RDT	Matt Dickerson	Arik Armstead
RDE	Josh Hines-Allen	Danny Striggow
WLB	Foyesade Oluokun	Dennis Gardeck
MLB	Devin Lloyd	Ventrell Miller
LCB	Montaric Brown	Keith Taylor
SS	Eric Murray	Rayuan Lane Iii
FS	Andrew Wingard	Antonio Johnson
RCB	Greg Newsome Ii	Christian Braswell
NB	Jarrian Jones

▸

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5, 44.5)

SUNDAY 4:30 PM EST Week 19

▸ ATS Pool Pick

PHI -4.5

U 44.5

▸ Analysis

There was only one way to play the side here, the Eagles, and clearly this thing got steamed into oblivion. Rightfully so based on the matchup, weather and injury issues for SF
I was late to the party and missed it so not angle either way for me.
I do lean under here but again that has been hit pretty hard after opening at 46.5
As we saw vs the Seahawks and earlier vs the Browns, whenever the Niners had to step up with Brock Purdy vs a top 10 level defense, they could not do enough. Against everyone else, this Niners offense has been dominant. The issue is the Eagles can make you look bad
Philly’s defense is absolutely battle tested and have faced the single toughest schedule of opposing QBs. Only 21% of opposing QB drop backs have come against backup QBs or those ranked 30^th or worse in EPA. So their 11^th EPA per drop back ranking looks much more impressive based on that brutal schedule. They lead the NFL in percentage of opposing QBs to generate an EPA below expectations (71%).
Purdy is pretty sensitive to pressure and of course weather. In Philly we are looking at mid 40 degrees which is fine but gusty winds at 20-30 mph.
The 49ers have not run the ball well all year and with LT Trent Williams either missing or hampered, it will be difficult to move it vs the Eagles front
WR Rickey Pearsall is likely out again as well
The Niners with Purdy have faced just four defenses ranked top 15 in EPA allowed, scoring just 17, 21, 26 and 3 points.
Defensively is where the Niners have been really bad. Five straight opponents have exceeded expectations in success rate and EPA against this defense
The 49ers defense ranks 25^th in EPA allowed on drop backs and have done so against the 23^rd ranked schedule of opposing QBs. When you look at an apples to apples basis, only 42% of opposing QBs have generated an EPA below expectations
The thing with the Eagles is they try and jump out to a lead early then go into hibernation mode in the 2^nd half and just rely on their run game and defense to bring it home. Watch for this in game and if the Eagles get off to a hot start, potentially look for a 2H under if the number is not adjusted enough
Saquon Barkley has not been nearly as explosive as last season and has been getting hit behind the line of scrimmage way too much. The Niners defense has allowed the 12^th highest yards prior to contact. The Eagles do welcome back T Lane Johnson and historically speaking their offensive splits are night and day when he’s out of the lineup so he is going to be a big help.
There is a chance that Jalen Hurts and the passing game isn’t as dominant as the market may expect. Hurts is much better vs man coverage but the Niners play man coverage at a bottom 10 rate.
It will not help the Niners that they lost starting LB Tatum Bethune and LB Dee Winters is very Questionable. The Niners run defense suffered much more without Bethune on the field a handful of weeks ago.
SF is 25^th in EPA allowed over the middle of the field and while he only attempts throws over the middle at the 2^nd lowest rate in the league, Hurts has generated the 2^nd highest EPA. It’s a very even distribution of targets and receptions between AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. Goedert has four TDs over the middle this season, most on the team. I will certainly look to some Goedert props with the Niners missing potentially their top three LBs as well. Goedert has scored a TD in three straight games and four total in that span.

▸ Trends

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	SF (O)	PHI (D)	PHI (O)	SF (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	6	11	15	25
Explosive Pass%	11	11	19	9
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	10	9	13	17
Explosive Rush%	23	20	4	8
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	9	26	30	28

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Brock Purdy	Jalen Hurts
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	3	6
OL Pressure	9	10
Opp DL Pressure	13	30
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	6	24
Opp Blitz Rate	28	30

Team Ranks
	SF	PHI
Net Success	18	13
Offense Pace	16	12
Neutral Pass%	9	16
TO Margin	22	6
OFF TO EPA	21	9
DEF TO EPA	23	8

▸ Injuries & Status

49ers Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Jacob Cowing	WR	Jan 11	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Luke Gifford	LB	Jan 11	Quadriceps	Questionable
Fred Warner	LB	Jan 25	Ankle - Ir	Injured Reserve
Tatum Bethune	LB	Feb 9	Groin	Out
Trent Williams	OT	Jan 11		Questionable
Ricky Pearsall	WR	Jan 11		Questionable
Dee Winters	LB	Jan 11	Ankle	Questionable
Kurtis Rourke	QB	Feb 9	Knee	Out
Nick Martin	LB	Jan 17	Concussion	Injured Reserve
Brandon Aiyuk	WR	Feb 9	Knee	Out
Ben Bartch	G	Jan 11	Foot	Injured Reserve
Mykel Williams	DE	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Nick Bosa	DE	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Jakob Robinson	CB	Feb 9	Forearm	Injured Reserve
Patrick Taylor Jr.	RB	Feb 9		Injured Reserve
Tarron Jackson	DE	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Trent Taylor	WR	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Tre Tomlinson	CB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve

Eagles Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Jaelan Phillips	LB	Jan 11		Questionable
Lane Johnson	OT	Jan 11		Questionable
Dallas Goedert	TE	Jan 11		Questionable
Marcus Epps	S	Jan 11		Questionable
Nakobe Dean	LB	Jan 11		Questionable
Jalen Carter	DT	Jan 11		Questionable
Brett Toth	C	Jan 11	Head	Questionable
Grant Calcaterra	TE	Jan 11	Ankle/Knee	Questionable
Brandon Johnson	CB	Jan 11	Ankle	Questionable
Myles Hinton	OT	Feb 9	Back	Injured Reserve
Willie Lampkin	C	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Andrew Mukuba	S	Jan 11	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Azeez Ojulari	LB	Jan 11		Injured Reserve
Ogbo Okoronkwo	DE	Feb 9	Triceps	Injured Reserve
Ben VanSumeren	FB	Jan 11		Injured Reserve
Johnny Wilson	WR	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve

▸ Depth Charts

49ers Depth Chart
Offense
LG	Ben Bartch
LWR	Ricky Pearsall	Kendrick Bourne
RWR	Jauan Jennings	Skyy Moore
SWR	Demarcus Robinson	Jordan Watkins
LT	Trent Williams	Austen Pleasants
LG	Spencer Burford
C	Jake Brendel	Matt Hennessy
RG	Dominick Puni	Connor Colby
RT	Colton Mckivitz
TE	George Kittle	Luke Farrell
QB	Brock Purdy	Mac Jones
RB	Christian Mccaffrey	Brian Robinson Jr.
FB	Kyle Juszczyk
Defense
LDE	Bryce Huff	Yetur Gross-Matos
LDT	Jordan Elliott	Alfred Collins
RDT	Kalia Davis	C.J. West
RDE	Sam Okuayinonu	Keion White
WLB	Dee Winters	Luke Gifford
MLB	Tatum Bethune	Garret Wallow
LCB	Renardo Green	Darrell Luter Jr.
SS	Ji'Ayir Brown	Jason Pinnock
FS	Malik Mustapha	Marques Sigle
RCB	Deommodore Lenoir	Siran Neal
NB	Upton Stout	Chase Lucas

Eagles Depth Chart
Offense
FB	Ben Vansumeren
LWR	A.J. Brown	Darius Cooper
RWR	Jahan Dotson
SWR	Devonta Smith	Britain Covey
LT	Jordan Mailata	Fred Johnson
LG	Landon Dickerson	Brett Toth
C	Cam Jurgens	Drew Kendall
RG	Tyler Steen	Willie Lampkin
RT	Lane Johnson	Cameron Williams
TE	Dallas Goedert	Grant Calcaterra
QB	Jalen Hurts	Tanner Mckee
RB	Saquon Barkley	Will Shipley
Defense
DE	Moro Ojomo
NT	Jordan Davis	Ty Robinson
DT	Jalen Carter	Byron Young
LOLB	Jaelan Phillips	Brandon Graham
WLB	Zack Baun	Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
MLB	Nakobe Dean	Jihaad Campbell
ROLB	Nolan Smith Jr.	Jalyx Hunt
LCB	Quinyon Mitchell	Kelee Ringo
SS	Marcus Epps	Sydney Brown
FS	Reed Blankenship
RCB	Adoree' Jackson	Jakorian Bennett
NB	Cooper Dejean	Michael Carter Ii

▸

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5, 46.5)

SUNDAY 8:00 PM EST Week 19

▸ ATS Pool Pick

LAC +3.5

U 46.5

▸ Analysis

I have this game at NE -3 so at 3.5 I think there is great value on LA.
Their major matchup issue is always upfront with their OL vs the pass rush but luckily they are matched up with one of the worst pass rush units in the Playoffs in NE. NE is 18th in PFF pass rush grade and while 10th in pressure rate, they have faced the easiest pass schedule in the NFL.
The Patriots defense is vastly overrated and have not faced much of anyone at offense. NE has faced the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses this season. Josh Allen 2x and Lamar Jackson are the ONLY good QBs they faced all season and allowed 56%, 51% and 58% success rates in those games.
I would definitely argue that only based on this season’s performance, that Justin Herbert is the 2nd best QB they have faced this season
I like rookie TE Orande Gadsden vs this Patriots defense. NE has struggled defending TEs this season, allowing the 4th highest target share and 18th in adjusted yards per target. They have allowed the 7th highest rate of opposing TEs to go over their season yardage marks.
We have also seen the Pats struggle against some good WRs like Drake London and Emeka Egbuka. By only DK points per game, the Patriots have easily faced the easiest schedule of opposing WRs. I would argue this is by far the best and deepest WR corps the Pats have faced all season. We know Christian Gonzalez is excellent but he is just one man. 10/14 WRs they have faced who average 40+ yards per game this season, cleared that mark vs the Pats this year. This Chargers WR group will clearly test this secondary.
Drake Maye has been awesome, MVP in my eyes, but it is still his first career start in the Playoffs and will be facing one of the better DCs in the league in Jesse Minter.
The Chargers pass defense ranks 4th in the NFL by EPA and have faced a top 13 schedule of opposing QBs. This will only be his 4th game all season facing a top 12 EPA pass defense so certainly a big step up.
Maye has lived off of explosive pass plays but this Chargers defense has allowed the 4th lowest rate of explosive passes. The Raiders are the only other top 10 defense the Pats have faced when it comes to fewest explosive passes allowed and NE scored just 13 in a loss to LV.
NE is also 2nd in the NFL in EPA on early downs but the Chargers defense is 4th best on those same early downs. Its imperative that the Chargers defense slows down Maye early to force tough 3rd and longs.
Chargers are very live to win outright.

▸ Trends

First-time playoff QB vs non-first time QB are 19-38 SU and 19-37-1 ATS since 2002. Rookie QBs making their first Playoff starts vs a QB not making their Playoff debuts are 6-9 straight up and 8-7 ATS since 2002. If you exclude rookie QBs making their debuts, first time Playoff QBs vs non-first timers are 13-29 SU and 11-30-1 ATS (27%) since 2002.
First time playoff QBs in the Wildcard round are just 1-12 ATS and 2-11 SU when favored like Maye

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	LAC (O)	NE (D)	NE (O)	LAC (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	23	10	1	7
Explosive Pass%	26	8	2	4
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	23	16	25	4
Explosive Rush%	27	10	15	22
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	27	6	13	11

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Justin Herbert	Drake Maye
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	15	7
OL Pressure	31	18
Opp DL Pressure	24	15
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	7	11
Opp Blitz Rate	14	30

Team Ranks
	LAC	NE
Net Success	10	5
Offense Pace	31	23
Neutral Pass%	6	5
TO Margin	19	9
OFF TO EPA	24	11
DEF TO EPA	18	13

▸ Injuries & Status

Chargers Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Jamaree Salyer	G	Jan 11		Questionable
Elijah Molden	CB	Jan 11		Questionable
Omarion Hampton	RB	Jan 11		Questionable
Bradley Bozeman	C	Jan 11		Questionable
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	Jan 11	Hamstring	Questionable
Kendall Williamson	S	Jan 11	Ankle	Questionable
Bud Dupree	LB	Jan 11	Hamstring	Questionable
Donte Jackson	CB	Jan 11	Ankle	Questionable
Nikko Reed	CB	Feb 8	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Tucker Fisk	TE	Jan 11	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Joe Alt	OT	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Rick Lovato	LS	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Reserve-Ret
Najee Harris	RB	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Eric Rogers	CB	Jan 11	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Junior Colson	LB	Feb 9	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Jordan Oladokun	CB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Rashawn Slater	OT	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Josh Fuga	DT	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve

Patriots Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Jared Wilson	G	Jan 11		Questionable
Khyiris Tonga	DT	Jan 11		Questionable
Robert Spillane	LB	Jan 11		Questionable
Harold Landry III	LB	Jan 11		Questionable
Alex Austin	CB	Jan 11	Wrist	Injured Reserve
Mack Hollins	WR	Jan 25	Abdomen	Injured Reserve
Joshua Farmer	DT	Jan 25	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Terrell Jennings	RB	Jan 11	Concussion	Injured Reserve
Antonio Gibson	RB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Isaiah Iton	DT	Feb 9	Hip	Injured Reserve
Deneric Prince	RB	Feb 9		Injured Reserve
Lan Larison	RB	Feb 9	Foot	Injured Reserve
Marcellas Dial Jr.	CB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Jaquelin Roy	DT	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Yasir Durant	OT	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Brock Lampe	FB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve

▸ Depth Charts

Chargers Depth Chart
Offense
LT	Joe Alt
LWR	Quentin Johnston	Tre' Harris
RWR	Keenan Allen	Keandre Lambert-Smith
SWR	Ladd Mcconkey	Derius Davis
LT	Jamaree Salyer
LG	Zion Johnson
C	Bradley Bozeman	Andre James
RG	Mekhi Becton	Trevor Penning
RT	Trey Pipkins Iii	Austin Deculus
TE	Oronde Gadsden	Tyler Conklin
QB	Justin Herbert	Trey Lance
RB	Omarion Hampton	Najee Harris
FB	Scott Matlock
Defense
DE	Da'Shawn Hand	Justin Eboigbe
NT	Jamaree Caldwell	Otito Ogbonnia
DT	Teair Tart
LOLB	Tuli Tuipulotu	Odafe Oweh
LILB	Troy Dye	Marlowe Wax
RILB	Daiyan Henley	Del'Shawn Phillips
ROLB	Khalil Mack	Bud Dupree
LCB	Benjamin St-Juste	Donte Jackson
SS	Derwin James Jr.	Rj Mickens
FS	Elijah Molden	Tony Jefferson
RCB	Cam Hart	Deane Leonard
NB	Tarheeb Still

Patriots Depth Chart
Offense
LWR	Kayshon Boutte	Mack Hollins
RWR	Stefon Diggs
SWR	Demario Douglas	Efton Chism Iii
LT	Will Campbell	Vederian Lowe
LG	Jared Wilson	Ben Brown
C	Garrett Bradbury
RG	Mike Onwenu	Caedan Wallace
RT	Morgan Moses	Marcus Bryant
TE	Hunter Henry	Austin Hooper
QB	Drake Maye	Joshua Dobbs
RB	Treveyon Henderson	Rhamondre Stevenson
FB	Jack Westover
Defense
DE	Milton Williams
NT	Khyiris Tonga	Cory Durden
DT	Christian Barmore	Eric Gregory
LOLB	K'Lavon Chaisson	Elijah Ponder
LILB	Robert Spillane	Christian Elliss
RILB	Jack Gibbens	Jahlani Tavai
ROLB	Harold Landry Iii	Anfernee Jennings
LCB	Carlton Davis Iii	Charles Woods
SS	Craig Woodson	Dell Pettus
FS	Jaylinn Hawkins	Brenden Schooler
RCB	Christian Gonzalez	Kobee Minor
NB	Marcus Jones

▸

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3, 39.5) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

MONDAY 8:00 PM EST Week 19

▸ ATS Pool Pick

HOU -3

Over 38.5

▸ Analysis

For now I am not on the side/total but as this number continues to drop I may find myself taking the Texans at a cheap 3 or just under 3
I think outside of the Tomlin voodoo, there is not much that makes sense with this number
PIT does most of their damage on offense with smoke and mirrors. While they get back DK Metcalf, its just a ton of dink and dunk throws the Gainwell, Warren and the TEs
CB Derek Stingley can essentially erase Metcalf and then its whether or not the pass rush can get to Rodgers in time to disrupt those short outlet throws. I will say for as elite as the Texans defense has been, they do funnel targets to the TEs and RBs.
Houston’s defense ranks #1 in Drop back EPA and #2 in overall EPA but have faced the 6th toughest schedule of opposing offenses.
My hesitation with this defense is that it has been a bit leaky of late. Maybe they are just bored but they allowed, on a relative basis, decent performances from bad offenses like the Cardinals, Colts and Raiders.
We do know that Rodgers is very sensitive to pressure. He ranks 31st in EPA out of 33 qualified QBs and 25th in CPOE when pressured this season. When he has been pressured, Rodgers has targeted Gainwell and Freiermuth the most this season. Look for Gainwell to continue to get peppered by targets as he has seen 7+ in four of his last five games.
Rodgers and the Steelers have gone under their team total in 5 of 7 starts vs top 10 EPA pass defenses. He has generated just a 44th percentile EPA in aggregate in those games vs all other QBs against those same defenses. He has underperformed
It will help HOU to get back CB Kamari Lassiter to shore up the other side of the field
I dont think either team will be able to run the ball well on Monday as they rank 2nd and 3rd in success rate over the last 6 games
The Texans will certainly try and be able to throw it down the field with Stroud to Collins or Higgins as most likely targets. We have seen Jaylin Noel also hit big ones like they did vs the Chargers a few weeks back
We saw Lamar and Flowers connect on multiple deep shots last SNF so expect the Texans to air it out
Stroud has been sensitive to colder weather even dating back to his OSU days so there is a risk that he isn’t as accurate as he’d like
Joey Porter Jr has been excellent this season so look to see if he is shadowing Nico Collins. The Texans may just opt to attack everywhere else if that is indeed the case. If not, Nico can move around and pick his spots
The Steelers are awful vs the slot and have allowed the 4th highest yards per target and 10th most EPA to the slot position. Both Christian Kirk and TE Dalton Schultz run a majority of the slot routes for HOU
Maybe TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith get to Stroud enough for him to make mistakes and the Tomlin voodoo is in effect to keep the Steelers alive but without turnovers, I find it hard to buy that the Steelers offense can generate consistent enough offense to win this game
That could lead Demeco Ryans to run the ball too much with Woody Marks and put the ball in his defense’s hands
I would expect both teams to start very conservative and slow then pick things up in the 2nd half. To that point, Texans games have gone over the total in the 1H of road games just once all season in eight games while Steelers 1H totals have gone over at home just once as well in nine games. Both have gone 0-5 in the last five to the over in the 1H of games. These teams rank 2nd and 5th in lowest ppg allowed in the 1H this season with a combined 17.1.

▸ Trends

Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game nearly a decade, losing six straight ATS and outright
HOU is 36-19 ATS in the 1H of games since Demeco Ryans took over

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	HOU (O)	PIT (D)	PIT (O)	HOU (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	17	16	19	1
Explosive Pass%	20	16	22	13
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	30	24	7	3
Explosive Rush%	29	18	10	2
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	25	13	16	5

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	C.J. Stroud	Aaron Rodgers
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	24	35
OL Pressure	12	2
Opp DL Pressure	17	20
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	35	23
Opp Blitz Rate	4	27

Team Ranks
	HOU	PIT
Net Success	8	16
Offense Pace	16	19
Neutral Pass%	8	13
TO Margin	2	3
OFF TO EPA	1	4
DEF TO EPA	4	3

▸ Injuries & Status

Texans Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Kamari Lassiter	CB	Jan 12		Questionable
Jamal Hill	LB	Jan 12		Questionable
Trent Brown	OT	Jan 12		Questionable
Kaevon Merriweather	S	Jan 12	Knee	Questionable
Jawhar Jordan	RB	Jan 12	Ankle	Questionable
Darrell Taylor	DE	Jan 12	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Ajani Carter	CB	Jan 12	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Tank Dell	WR	Feb 9	Knee	Out
Joe Mixon	RB	Feb 9	Foot/Ankle	Out
Jake Hansen	LB	Jan 25	Chest	Injured Reserve
Mario Edwards Jr.	DT	Feb 9	Pectoral	Injured Reserve
Brevin Jordan	TE	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Jaylen Reed	S	Jan 12	Forearm	Injured Reserve
Tim Settle Jr.	DT	Feb 9	Foot	Injured Reserve
M.J. Stewart	S	Feb 9	Quadriceps	Injured Reserve
Jaylin Smith	CB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Jimmie Ward	S	Jan 12	Foot	Out
Folorunso Fatukasi	DT	Jan 12	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Kyonte Hamilton	DT	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Kurt Hinish	DT	Jan 12	Undisclosed	Out

Steelers Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Darnell Washington	TE	Feb 9	Forearm	Injured Reserve
Daniel Ekuale	DT	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Calvin Anderson	OT	Jan 12	Knee	Injured Reserve
Donte Kent	CB	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Broderick Jones	OT	Feb 9	Neck	Injured Reserve
Cory Trice Jr.	CB	Feb 9	Hamstring/Knee	Injured Reserve
DeShon Elliott	S	Jan 12	Knee	Injured Reserve
Miles Killebrew	S	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Max Scharping	G	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Isaiahh Loudermilk	DT	Jan 12	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Skylar Thompson	QB	Jan 12	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Dean Lowry	DT	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Jacob Slade	DT	Feb 9		Injured Reserve
Donald Parham Jr.	TE	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve

▸ Depth Charts

Texans Depth Chart
Offense
LG	Laken Tomlinson
RB	Nick Chubb	Jawhar Jordan
LWR	Nico Collins	Jaylin Noel
RWR	Jayden Higgins	Xavier Hutchinson
SWR	Christian Kirk	Justin Watson
LT	Aireontae Ersery	Blake Fisher
LG	Tytus Howard
C	Jake Andrews	Juice Scruggs
RG	Ed Ingram	Jarrett Kingston
RT	Trent Brown
TE	Dalton Schultz	Cade Stover
QB	C.J. Stroud	Davis Mills
RB	Woody Marks	Jawhar Jordan
FB	British Brooks
Defense
LDE	Will Anderson Jr.	Dylan Horton
LDT	Sheldon Rankins	Naquan Jones
RDT	Tommy Togiai	Denico Autry
RDE	Danielle Hunter	Derek Barnett
WLB	Henry To'Oto'O	Christian Harris
MLB	Azeez Al-Shaair	E.J. Speed
LCB	Derek Stingley Jr.	Tremon Smith
SS	Myles Bryant
FS	Calen Bullock	K'Von Wallace
RCB	Kamari Lassiter	Ja'Marcus Ingram
NB	Jalen Pitre	Alijah Huzzie

Steelers Depth Chart
Offense
RWR	Roman Wilson
LT	Broderick Jones
LWR	Dk Metcalf	Calvin Austin Iii
RWR	Marquez Valdes-Scantling
SWR	Adam Thielen	Ben Skowronek
LT	Dylan Cook
LG	Isaac Seumalo	Spencer Anderson
C	Zach Frazier	Ryan Mccollum
RG	Mason Mccormick	Max Scharping
RT	Troy Fautanu	Calvin Anderson
TE	Pat Freiermuth	Jonnu Smith
QB	Aaron Rodgers	Mason Rudolph
RB	Kenneth Gainwell	Kaleb Johnson
Defense
DE	Derrick Harmon	Yahya Black
NT	Keeanu Benton	Logan Lee
DT	Cameron Heyward	Esezi Otomewo
LOLB	T.J. Watt	Jack Sawyer
LILB	Patrick Queen	Malik Harrison
RILB	Payton Wilson	Cole Holcomb
ROLB	Alex Highsmith	Nick Herbig
LCB	James Pierre	Asante Samuel Jr.
SS	Kyle Dugger	Sebastian Castro
FS	Chuck Clark	Jabrill Peppers
RCB	Joey Porter Jr.
NB	Jalen Ramsey	Brandin Echols

- NFL CONTENT -

WILDCARD ROUND

Wildcard Round Trends:

Wildcard Plays:

Playoff Teams vs Top 20 DVOA this Season

GAME MATCHUPS

Alternative Wagers

Wildcard Highest Scoring Teams and Games