Thanksgiving Week 13- 2025

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GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS (-2.5, 49.5)

THURSDAY 1:00 PM EST Week 13

▸ ATS Pool Pick

GB +2.5

▸ Analysis

This number has been knocked down even further since Monday morning when I took the 3. I think the Packers win outright here but teasing GB up to 8.5 and pairing with other good wong teaser teams like BAL or Philly is another option.
I was big on the Packers prior to the Micah Parsons trade this off season and while they started off hot, they have underwhelmed overall. But they are the type of team that you don’t necessarily love covering by big margin but do like getting as an underdog like we have here. Historically, Matt Lafleur has done a great job outperforming as an underdog, going 24-13 ATS (65%) in his career so far.
The Lions have frankly been completely underwhelming for a long while now. They have generated an EPA > opposing defensive average allowed in just two of their last eight games. Since week 4, Detroit is just 18th in success rate on offense. GB is 13th in EPA on defense but we know their ceiling is elite top five level. Detroit has only faced two top 10 defenses this season and five among the top 15, including the opener at GB. Here are the season percentile ranks in those games: 20%, 40%, 30%, 40% and 0%. They have not been able to even meet the median or better performance against those defenses and that includes home games against CLE, MIN and TB so this isn’t a road or outdoor issue. Detroit’s offense is actually bottom eight in the NFL in EPA consistency this season. They have crushed bad defenses like WAS and CHI but have underperformed vs virtually everyone else.
Now they are missing Sam Laporta and he as an outlet has really thinned out the target tree that really matters for Goff. They have gotten virtually zero production from the TE position and it turns into the Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams show in the pass game. Defenses have started to take away those key in breaking routes that makes these WRs so dangerous without a threat from the TE position.
The OL is also having problems protecting Goff and the offense has been very clunky of late, outside of random Gibbs big runs vs NY and the decimated WAS defense.
The Tackles (Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell) have been excellent as usual but the interior of the OL has been a mess. This is not surprising considering the loss of G Kevin Zeitler and C Frank Ragnow in the off season. But C Graham Glasgow and Guards Kayode Awosika and rookie Tate Ratledge have really struggled. Glasgow is nursing an injury but he sits 23rd in PFF pass block grade while Awosika, backup Mahogany as well as Ratledge sit 76th-78th among 89 qualified Guards. Goff has always struggled with interior pressure and it has effected him this season. I fully expect GB to get to Goff with their defensive front and cause issues throughout the game.
ASB will certianly be a big part of this game and the Packers are dealing with injuries to their CB room. Keisan Nixon left last week’s game and is definitely a question mark this week. Nate Hobbs missed the Vikings game but did practice early in the week and could be in line to play. If both are out that certainly opens things up for Detroit in the pass game.
The Packers play zone at a top five rate and Goff has just been ok ranking 13th in EPA and 18th in success rate vs zone. The problem is that Laporta was an absolute monster vs zone coverage. He ranks 7th best in the NFL in EPA per target and a 68% success rate! There is a significant drop off from Laporta to the next best EPA receiver in Jameson Williams. In a minimal sample, Gibbs has been the best receiver vs zone in the last three games without Laporta and surprisingly ASB has only one reception out of 8 targets in that span.
Speaking of Gibbs, he was awesome vs the Giants but that was the Giants. The Packers rank 10th best in rush yards allowed over expected and held Gibbs to just 19 yards on 9 attempts in the first matchup. And in fact, that has been a running theme in his career vs GB. In 5 career games vs GB, Gibbs has gone for just 19, 43, 65, 54 and 40 yards for just 4.1 ypc.
The Lions defense has stood up pretty well when considering the injuries they continue to suffer in the secondary. However, they have faced a pretty soft schedule of opposing QBs of late. We are talking about a string of QBs that includes Jameis Winston, Jalen Hurts, Marcus Mariota, JJ McCarthy and Baker Mayfield. By EPA, the Lions have faced a bottom five schedule of opposing QBs. Love, Mahomes and Lamar are the only top 15 EPA QBs they have faced all season and they allowed a top three EPA performance by each of those QBs. This includes Love’s 3rd best game all season.
Love and the Packers offense has been a bit inconsistent this season but still ranks as the 3rd best EPA and 5th best offense by success rate.
Losing TE Tucker Kraft has certainly effected this passing offense and rank 11th in success rate and 10th in EPA since he went down. Their explosiveness is lowered as well. However, it’s still a top offense and as they start getting WRs back they should be able to help make up for the loss of Tucker. We will see if WR Jayden Reed is able to make it back this week but between Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvian Wicks, it’s a good enough unit to win here.
It should be noted that Love was handing off right handed last game bc of a separated shoulder in his non throwing arm. It shouldn’t effect any throws but one big hit could knock him out.
No defense in the NFL plays more man coverage than the Lions and #2 in Cover 1. No QB has a higher EPA this season vs Cover 1 than Jordan Love. What’s interesting is the EPA is not fueled by some random big plays, in fact he has one of the lower 20+ yard throws against this coverage. He has just been consistently solid beating this defense. He is #2 in EPA/DB against all man coverages as well.
To be fair, Kraft was by far the biggest beneficiary of these man beater throws from Love. In a tiny three game sample since Kraft has been out, Wicks and Watson have been the biggest beneficiaries.
Josh Jacobs missed last week’s game but I do think he is likely to play this week. To be honest, backup Emmanuel Wilson showed a lot more juice vs the Vikings and if/when Jacobs is back, I do think he has earned so more looks and a nice 1-2 punch.
This is also a brutal spot for the Lions considering they are off an OT game last week. Teams off OT and playing on Thursday are 6-25 ATS (19%) since 2000, winning 20% less than expected straight up based on pre game win expectancy. The Lions defense was on the field for nearly 80 plays and considering its a noon start on Thursday and not the standard night time for most Thursday games, it makes this a little more difficult.
The Packers beat Detroit on the road on Thanksgiving in 2023 and had the Lions dead to rights before a last minute loss. They will not be intimidated at all heading into Detroti. I truly think the Packers are a better overall team.

▸ Trends

Teams off OT and playing on Thursday are 6-25 ATS (19%) since 2000, winning 20% less than expected straight up based on pre game win expectancy

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	GB (O)	DET (D)	DET (O)	GB (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	1	17	9	16
Explosive Pass%	6	27	5	1
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	16	5	5	12
Explosive Rush%	17	20	11	6
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	11	15	9	8

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Jordan Love	Jared Goff
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	18	40
OL Pressure	14	25
Opp DL Pressure	16	10
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	6	18
Opp Blitz Rate	15	29

Team Ranks
	GB	DET
Net Success	3	4
Offense Pace	16	16
Neutral Pass%	23	29
TO Margin	11	8
OFF TO EPA	1	4
DEF TO EPA	27	12

▸ Injuries & Status

Packers Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	Nov 27	Calf	Questionable
Jayden Reed	WR	Nov 27	Foot/Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Matthew Golden	WR	Nov 27	Wrist	Questionable
Josh Jacobs	RB	Nov 27	Knee	Questionable
Quay Walker	LB	Nov 27		Questionable
Nate Hobbs	CB	Nov 27		Questionable
Javon Bullard	S	Nov 27	Ankle	Questionable
Edgerrin Cooper	LB	Nov 27	Foot	Questionable
Lukas Van Ness	DE	Nov 27	Foot	Questionable
Keisean Nixon	CB	Nov 27	Neck	Questionable
Savion Williams	WR	Nov 27	Foot	Questionable
Zach Tom	OT	Nov 27		Questionable
Karl Brooks	DE	Nov 27		Questionable
MarShawn Lloyd	RB	Dec 7	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Elgton Jenkins	G	Jan 4		Injured Reserve
Tucker Kraft	TE	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Nick Niemann	LB	Dec 7	Pectoral	Injured Reserve
Collin Oliver	DE	Dec 7	Hamstring	Out
Brenton Cox Jr.	DE	Dec 7	Groin	Injured Reserve
John Williams	G	Dec 7	Back	Out
Travis Glover	OT	Feb 9	Shoulder	Injured Reserve

Lions Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Sione Vaki	RB	Nov 27	Ankle	Questionable
Jacob Saylors	RB	Nov 27	Back	Questionable
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	Nov 27	Hand	Questionable
Brock Wright	TE	Nov 27	Neck	Questionable
Kalif Raymond	WR	Nov 27	Ankle	Questionable
Kerby Joseph	S	Nov 27		Questionable
Josh Paschal	DE	Nov 27	Back	Out
Graham Glasgow	C	Nov 27	Knee	Questionable
Terrion Arnold	CB	Nov 27	Concussion	Questionable
Marcus Davenport	DE	Nov 27	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Penei Sewell	OT	Nov 27		Questionable
Tate Ratledge	G	Nov 27		Questionable
Taylor Decker	OT	Nov 27		Questionable
Miles Frazier	G	Nov 27	Knee	Out
Sam LaPorta	TE	Jan 4	Back	Injured Reserve
Christian Mahogany	G	Dec 4	Leg	Injured Reserve
Zach Cunningham	LB	Dec 4	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Giovanni Manu	OT	Dec 4	Knee	Injured Reserve
Shane Zylstra	TE	Dec 4	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Jamarco Jones	OT	Feb 9	Ankle	Injured Reserve
Ezekiel Turner	LB	Feb 9	Foot	Injured Reserve
Colby Sorsdal	OT	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.	CB	Feb 9	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Kye Robichaux	RB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Dan Jackson	S	Feb 9	Leg	Injured Reserve

▸ Depth Charts

Packers Depth Chart
Offense
SWR	Jayden Reed
C	Elgton Jenkins
TE	Tucker Kraft	Josh Whyle
LWR	Christian Watson	Savion Williams
RWR	Romeo Doubs	Bo Melton
SWR	Dontayvion Wicks
LT	Rasheed Walker	Anthony Belton
LG	Aaron Banks
C	Sean Rhyan
RG	Jordan Morgan	Donovan Jennings
RT	Zach Tom	Darian Kinnard
TE	John Fitzpatrick	Josh Whyle
QB	Jordan Love	Malik Willis
RB	Josh Jacobs	Emanuel Wilson
Defense
LDE	Rashan Gary	Kingsley Enagbare
LDT	Devonte Wyatt	Karl Brooks
RDT	Colby Wooden	Warren Brinson
RDE	Micah Parsons	Lukas Van Ness
WLB	Edgerrin Cooper	Ty'Ron Hopper
MLB	Quay Walker	Isaiah Mcduffie
LCB	Keisean Nixon	Kamal Hadden
SS	Xavier Mckinney	Kitan Oladapo
FS	Evan Williams	Zayne Anderson
RCB	Carrington Valentine	Nate Hobbs
NB	Javon Bullard

Lions Depth Chart
Offense
LG	Christian Mahogany
TE	Sam Laporta
LWR	Jameson Williams	Isaac Teslaa
RWR	Amon-Ra St. Brown
SWR	Kalif Raymond	Dominic Lovett
LT	Taylor Decker	Giovanni Manu
LG	Kayode Awosika
C	Graham Glasgow	Kingsley Eguakun
RG	Tate Ratledge
RT	Penei Sewell	Jamarco Jones
TE	Brock Wright
QB	Jared Goff	Kyle Allen
RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	David Montgomery
Defense
LDE	Aidan Hutchinson	Al-Quadin Muhammad
NT	Dj Reader	Roy Lopez
DT	Tyleik Williams	Mekhi Wingo
RDE	Alim Mcneill	Tyler Lacy
WLB	Alex Anzalone	Grant Stuard
MLB	Jack Campbell	Malcolm Rodriguez
SLB	Derrick Barnes	Trevor Nowaske
LCB	Terrion Arnold	Rock Ya-Sin
SS	Brian Branch	Daniel Thomas
FS	Kerby Joseph	Thomas Harper
RCB	D.J. Reed	Khalil Dorsey
NB	Amik Robertson

▸

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5, 52.5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS

THURSDAY 4:30 PM EST Week 13

▸ ATS Pool Pick

DAL +3.5

▸ Analysis

I can’t get to 3.5 here with a team in KC that is an equivalent or close to a team (PHI) that just closed 2.75 last week in Dallas.
I thought this prior to last MNF and it has been confirmed in the last two games that the Dallas defense is so much better than prior to the bye. Sure it was vs LV and an overrated Philly offense but they allowed 3.5 and 2.3 ypc against the rush and two of their four lowest EPA outuputs all season in those games. It’s clear that this more like a league average defense than the bottom 2-3 they had been all season.
We already know this is a top 5-8 offense so this team to me is more like a team rated in the 12-15 range than the 16-18 that I believe 3.5 would entail.
I think the Chiefs continue to be overvalued after yet another close game vs the Colts. 6 of their 11 games have been decided by one score and are 1-4 straight up away from home. Their only win came at NY vs Russ and the Giants. Otherwise, they have done nothing to prove that they can win by margin against anyone away from home, especially a lethal offense and improved defense like the Cowboys.
It doesn’t help the Chiefs that they will be without All Pro G Trey Smith for this game. That is a tough blow considering they have to block Quinnen Williams, who has been a monster in two games.
The Cowboys do play the 2nd most zone coverage in the NFL and Patrick Mahomes ranks #1 in EPA per drop back vs zone coverage. It’s absolutely a chore for the Cowboys defense but as we saw in the first half vs the Eagles, DC Matt Eberflus isn’t afraid to play more man coverage.
No surprise but Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are the top two first read targets for Mahomes vs zone in the games Rice has played this season. The Chiefs have yet to play a dome game with all of their WRs healthy so it will be interesting to see this offense on the fast track
While Dallas’ defense has played much better, this is clearly a major step up. They will need Williams and that pass rush to take advantage of the banged up KC OL and get to Mahomes or those WRs could make this a long day for the Cowboys.
I don’t love the total here either way but I do think there is a case that we saw a track meet conducive for an over. Both of these offenses rank top five in points per drive and both rank top 10 in lowest 3 and outs per drive. The Chiefs rank #1 in opponent adjusted neutral game pass rate while the Cowboys rank 8th highest.
The one thing we know pretty clearly here is that the Cowboys offense should be able to put up big numbers.
From an EPA consistency basis (% of games with offensive EPA> opposing defense median allowed) the Cowboys rank #1 in the NFL. At home the last few years they consistently outperform market expectations.
The Way George Pickens and Ceedee Lamb are playing, it’s hard pressed to see most any defense slow them down right now. KC’s pass defense can be shredded and when you filter for garbage time, the KC defense ranks 22nd in rush success rate allowed and 24th against the pass.
We have seen the best QBs the Chiefs have faced- Herbert, Goff, Allen generate some monster games. Herbert and Allen each produced their 2nd highest drop back EPA in any game this season vs the KC defense. Goff his 5th best. They allowed each of those QBs to generate a 61%+ success rate. They did a nice job holding down Lamar but he was hurt mid game and not necessarily the best qualifier. In general, however, they have padded their overal stats suffocating bad QBs like Russ, Mariota and Geno Smith. I do not doubt Dak Prescott will produce fine numbers in this game.
KC’s defense has not allowed any 100+ yard games from a WR but vs outside WRs rank 8th worst in EPA per target and have allowed the 6th most average separation. They are much better defending the slot, sitting 2nd best in the NFL with CB Trent McDuffie focusing most of his efforts there. They have yet to face a combo like Pickens and Lamb with a top 10 QB like Dak. Most of their toughest WR opponents like St. Brown, McConkey and Flowers spend a lot of time in the slot.
I do think TE Jake Ferguson could have a sneaky good game this week. KC plays 2 high safety looks with the middle of the field open at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. Ferguson has excelled against those looks and ranks 1st in receptions and target share on the Dallas offense.
It hasn’t really mattered who Dak and this offense has faced, they have been able to put up big numbers. Outside of a poor home performance off the bye vs Arizona and a road game at Chicago when Lamb got hurt early in that game, they have exceeded every opponent’s median defensive output.
One area I expect Dak and this offense to exploit the Chiefs is in the playaction game. KC ranks 2nd worst in the NFL against playaction by EPA and Dak sits 4th best in EPA. The Cowboys use PA at the 6th highest rate.
I also get the most dangerous kicker of my lifetime in Brandon Aubrey in the dome. Getting to midfield is the goal and is a virtual automatic three points. That is always attractive in a likely close game
In general the Cowboys special teams is a bigger edge vs KC at this point. The Cowboys not only have the best K in the NFL but one of the best returners in Turpin and the Chiefs are just 24th in ST DVOA
I make this number KC -3 and am ok if you missed 3.5

▸ Trends

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	KC (O)	DAL (D)	DAL (O)	KC (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	4	27	7	13
Explosive Pass%	13	16	15	26
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	12	29	9	23
Explosive Rush%	28	29	21	7
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	12	12	4	18

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Patrick Mahomes	Dak Prescott
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	13	2
OL Pressure	20	13
Opp DL Pressure	1	17
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	9	1
Opp Blitz Rate	12	6

Team Ranks
	KC	DAL
Net Success	7	22
Offense Pace	8	4
Neutral Pass%	1	11
TO Margin	16	17
OFF TO EPA	9	13
DEF TO EPA	26	22

▸ Injuries & Status

Chiefs Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Chris Roland-Wallace	CB	Nov 27		Questionable
Noah Gray	TE	Nov 27	Concussion	Questionable
Trey Smith	G	Nov 27		Doubtful
Omarr Norman-Lott	DT	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Nazeeh Johnson	S	Dec 7	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Brandon George	LB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Ethan Driskell	OT	Dec 7	Appendix	Out
Jake Briningstool	TE	Dec 7	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Felix Anudike-Uzomah	DE	Feb 9	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Deon Bush	S	Feb 9	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Janarius Robinson	DE	Feb 9	Foot	Injured Reserve
Eric Scott Jr.	CB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve
Keaontay Ingram	RB	Feb 9	Undisclosed	Injured Reserve

Cowboys Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
KaVontae Turpin	WR	Nov 27	Shoulder	Questionable
George Pickens	WR	Nov 27	Knee/Calf	Questionable
Osa Odighizuwa	DT	Nov 27	Elbow	Questionable
Caelen Carson	CB	Nov 27		Questionable
Malik Hooker	S	Nov 27	Toe/Thigh	Questionable
Donovan Wilson	S	Nov 27	Neck	Questionable
Trevon Diggs	CB	Dec 4	Concussion/Knee	Injured Reserve
Dante Fowler Jr.	DE	Nov 27		Questionable
Jadeveon Clowney	DE	Nov 27		Questionable
Tyler Guyton	OT	Nov 27		Doubtful
Ajani Cornelius	OT	Dec 14	Knee	Injured Reserve
Juanyeh Thomas	S	Dec 14	Migraines	Out
Jack Sanborn	LB	Dec 4	Groin	Injured Reserve
Trevor Keegan	G	Dec 4	Neck	Injured Reserve
Miles Sanders	RB	Feb 9	Knee/Ankle	Injured Reserve
Phil Mafah	RB	Dec 4	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Payton Turner	DE	Dec 4	Ribs	Injured Reserve
Rob Jones	G	Feb 9	Neck	Injured Reserve
Josh Butler	CB	Dec 4	Knee	Out

▸ Depth Charts

Chiefs Depth Chart
Offense
LWR	Hollywood Brown	Juju Smith-Schuster
RWR	Xavier Worthy	Jalen Royals
SWR	Rashee Rice	Nikko Remigio
LT	Josh Simmons	Jaylon Moore
LG	Kingsley Suamataia
C	Creed Humphrey	Hunter Nourzad
RG	Trey Smith	Mike Caliendo
RT	Jawaan Taylor	Wanya Morris
TE	Travis Kelce	Noah Gray
QB	Patrick Mahomes	Gardner Minshew
RB	Isiah Pacheco	Kareem Hunt
Defense
LDE	George Karlaftis	Ashton Gillotte
LDT	Chris Jones	Derrick Nnadi
RDT	Jerry Tillery	Mike Pennel
RDE	Mike Danna	Charles Omenihu
WLB	Drue Tranquill	Leo Chenal
MLB	Nick Bolton	Jack Cochrane
LCB	Jaylen Watson	Nohl Williams
SS	Chamarri Conner	Jaden Hicks
FS	Bryan Cook
RCB	Trent Mcduffie	Kristian Fulton
NB	Chris Roland-Wallace	Kevin Knowles

Cowboys Depth Chart
Offense
LWR	George Pickens	Jonathan Mingo
RWR	Ceedee Lamb	Jalen Tolbert
SWR	Ryan Flournoy	Kavontae Turpin
LT	Tyler Guyton	Nate Thomas
LG	Tyler Smith
C	Cooper Beebe	Brock Hoffman
RG	Tyler Booker	T.J. Bass
RT	Terence Steele	Hakeem Adeniji
TE	Jake Ferguson	Luke Schoonmaker
QB	Dak Prescott	Joe Milton Iii
RB	Javonte Williams	Jaydon Blue
FB	Hunter Luepke
Defense
LDE	Jadeveon Clowney	Sam Williams
LDT	Osa Odighizuwa	Kenny Clark
RDT	Quinnen Williams	Solomon Thomas
RDE	Donovan Ezeiruaku	Dante Fowler Jr.
WLB	Demarvion Overshown	Shemar James
MLB	Kenneth Murray Jr.	Logan Wilson
LCB	Caelen Carson	Shavon Revel Jr.
SS	Donovan Wilson	Markquese Bell
FS	Malik Hooker	Alijah Clark
RCB	Daron Bland	Trikweze Bridges
NB	Reddy Steward

▸

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7, 51.5)

THURSDAY 8:20 PM EST Week 13

▸ ATS Pool Pick

BAL -7

▸ Analysis

Still waiting on official word on the Burrow situation but I’d be blown away as of Wednesday morning if he didn’t get the start here. I think a very high probability that he is playing is already baked into this number but once it is official I do think this closes around 6. I would be interested in Baltimore after the official announcement if it gets down to 6.
I think lost in all the talk about how Lamar does not look healthy and the offense kind of stagnant is that the Ravens defense has been tremendous over the last handful of weeks once they got back all of their key contributors. Since the defense got healthy in week 6, the Ravens rank 3rd best in EPA and 4th in success rate. They rank #1 in rush EPA and 6th in EPA on drop backs in that span.
You could point to facing teams like the Browns, Jets and Vikings as skewing those defensive numbers in this stretch but they did hold the high powered Rams offense to a bottom 30th percentile EPA game this season and the Dolphins to a bottom 20th percentile outcome. It was the Rams 2nd worst performance on offense on a relative basis this season.
This will be a very difficult way to get right back into the mix for Burrow and will have to do so without Tee Higgins. Of course he does get back Ja’mar Chase from suspension but I am a bit wary that he can just jump right back in and direct this offense to a victory against this defense.
The Bengals OL is still horrid and if the defense can just focus on taking away Chase while using their front to stop the run game, I do think the path for success is difficult for this Benglas team. How many times in the past have we seen the Cincinnati offense completely struggle after a lengthy injury absence from Burrow? I believe this number is pricing in 100% Burrow and a standard high powered offense but I do not totally see it that way.
After a poor start, Chase Brown has really picked things up of late and overall has outperformed expectations based on a top 5 most difficult schedule of opposing run defenses (by ypc). He runs a majority of the time between the tackles where the Ravens run defense has excelled of late. They held Judkins and Hall to just 46 total yards on 16 rushes up the middle the last two games.
Only 18% of opposing starting RBs have exceeded their season yardage average vs Baltimore this season. Since the week 6 cut off when the defense got healthy, no RB has rushed for more than 67 yards vs the Ravens. After missing the last couple of games, Samaje Perince is back this week and could cut into Brown’s huge workload. Under Brown rush yards down to 55.5 is worth a strong consideration for me.
Obviously Chase will be fed a ton of targets without Higgins and last year torched Baltimore for 264 yards, 193 yards and five total TDs in those two games. But I have to believe Baltimore will mix things up vs what they did and failed last season.
Baltimore plays man coverage at a top five rate and with Chase likely getting a bunch of extra coverage eyes, maybe Mitchell Tinsley and TE Mike Gesicki can step up. This season the sample is tiny (7 targets) but in 2024, his yards per route actually led the Bengals receivers and almost doubled his efficiency against zone. He could be an interesting play in DFS or some alt overs.
The Ravens offense has clearly struggled since Lamar returned. It should be noted that they did face a much improved Dolphins defense in Lamar’s return along with the Browns, Vikings and Jets. Excusing rust and a short week for the performance vs the Dolphins but those other three teams all rank inside the top 12 in success rate defensively and all three rank top 11 in rush success rate. Not an excuse but what they will face in the Bengals this week is night and day vs the prior three games.
It’s just impossible to truly articulate how bad the Bengals defense has been this season. Not only do they rank 32nd in most every defensive category including overall EPA, EPA per drop back and 30th in rush EPA, but they have faced the 3rd easiest schedule of opposing offenses by EPA. It’s one thing to be the worst defense in the NFL but when you are doing while facing offenses like the Browns, Jets, Steelers, Vikings and Jags, it is a rough look.
Cincinnati has allowed a 48%+ success rate on drop backs in every game this season. To put that in perspective, 100% of opponents have generated a 48%+ success rate thru the air while the entire rest of the NFL has allowed it only 30% of the time.
Trey Hendrickson is missing again as well as rookie 1st rounder in Shemar Stewart and CB Cam Taylor-Britt. Its an ugly unit
Teams have really peppered the RBs and TEs from a target perspective against the Bengals (8th highest target share to RBs, #1 target share to TEs) and avoided top CB Dax HIll and the WRs (32nd target share to WRs).
That’s perfect for the Ravens who really will love to attack in the passing game with the RBs and especially the TEs. Look for both Mark Andrews and Isiaiah Likely to be heavily involved in the passing game
For all the talk about how bad Lamar looks he is still 18th in EPA+CPOE since his return and 15th in success rate. When he has been pressured he has really struggled and doesn’t look fast enough right now to get away from the rush. He ranks 2nd worst in PFF grade vs pressure a far cry from prior seasons.
But after facing three top 13 pressure rate defenses in the Browns, Vikings and Dolphins along with the 20th ranked Jets, getting a bottom five pass rush in the Bengals will be a sight for sore eyes.
Nothing that Lamar has struggled against will be on display on TNF and therefore I think he will be just fine in attacking this Bengals defense.
Obviously the same can be said for Derrick Henry. As mentioned earlier, he has faced a tougher than normal schedule of late and on the season but this Bengals run D is atrocious. BUF, MIA and CHI are the only bottom 18 run defenses he has faced by adjused ypc allowed. In those games he ran for 19-119, 21-71-2 TD (no Lamar) and 18-169-2 TD.
Cincinnati is 2nd worst in adjusted ypc on outside runs where Henry really breaks off his huge runs. I expect a monster game for Henry and even Keaton Mitchell with upside potential with the alts.

▸ Trends

▸ Matchup Rankings

Pass/Rush Ranks
	CIN (O)	BAL (D)	BAL (O)	CIN (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency	27	20	19	32
Explosive Pass%	28	24	9	31
Rushing
Rush Efficiency	2	18	10	30
Explosive Rush%	8	22	2	24
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)	17	21	20	32

QB v. Pressure Ranks
	Joe Burrow	Lamar Jackson
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure	NA	32
OL Pressure	24	27
Opp DL Pressure	19	29
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz	NA	7
Opp Blitz Rate	10	31

Team Ranks
	CIN	BAL
Net Success	30	19
Offense Pace	2	32
Neutral Pass%	5	30
TO Margin	30	20
OFF TO EPA	31	20
DEF TO EPA	24	18

▸ Injuries & Status

Bengals Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Cam Sample	DE	Nov 27		Questionable
Joe Flacco	QB	Nov 27	Shoulder/Finger	Questionable
Joe Burrow	QB	Nov 27	Toe	Injured Reserve
Tahj Brooks	RB	Dec 7	Concussion	Out
Trey Hendrickson	DE	Dec 7	Hip	Out
Tee Higgins	WR	Dec 7	Concussion	Out
Marco Wilson	CB	Nov 27	Hamstring	Questionable
Daijahn Anthony	S	Nov 27	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
Cam Taylor-Britt	CB	Dec 21		Injured Reserve
Shemar Stewart	DE	Dec 14	Knee	Injured Reserve
Matt Lee	C	Dec 7	Knee	Injured Reserve
Shaka Heyward	LB	Dec 7	Fibula	Injured Reserve
Cordell Volson	G	Feb 9	Shoulder	Injured Reserve
Erick All Jr.	TE	Feb 9	Knee	Out

Ravens Injury Report
Player	Pos	Date	Injury	Status
Lamar Jackson	QB	Nov 27	Toe	Questionable
Keyon Martin	CB	Nov 27		Questionable
Travis Jones	DT	Nov 27	Ankle	Questionable
Adisa Isaac	LB	Dec 7	Elbow	Injured Reserve
Taven Bryan	DT	Nov 27	Knee	Doubtful
Jay Higgins IV	LB	Dec 14	Knee	Injured Reserve
Broderick Washington Jr.	DT	Dec 7	Achilles	Injured Reserve
Tavius Robinson	LB	Dec 7	Foot	Injured Reserve
Nnamdi Madubuike	DT	Feb 9	Neck	Injured Reserve
Ar'Darius Washington	S	Dec 7	Achilles	Out
Dayton Wade	WR	Feb 9	Ribs	Injured Reserve
Robert Longerbeam	CB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve
Bilhal Kone	CB	Feb 9	Knee	Injured Reserve

▸ Depth Charts

Bengals Depth Chart
Offense
QB	Joe Burrow
LWR	Ja'Marr Chase	Jermaine Burton
RWR	Tee Higgins	Mitch Tinsley
SWR	Andrei Iosivas	Charlie Jones
LT	Orlando Brown Jr.
LG	Dylan Fairchild
C	Ted Karras	Matt Lee
RG	Jalen Rivers	Dalton Risner
RT	Amarius Mims	Cody Ford
TE	Mike Gesicki	Drew Sample
QB	Joe Flacco
RB	Chase Brown	Samaje Perine
Defense
LDE	Myles Murphy	Cedric Johnson
LDT	T.J. Slaton Jr.	Mckinnley Jackson
RDT	B.J. Hill	Kris Jenkins Jr.
RDE	Trey Hendrickson	Joseph Ossai
WLB	Demetrius Knight Jr.	Oren Burks
MLB	Barrett Carter	Joe Giles-Harris
LCB	Dax Hill	Josh Newton
SS	Jordan Battle	Pj Jules
FS	Geno Stone	Tycen Anderson
RCB	Dj Turner Ii	Marco Wilson
NB	Dj Ivey

Ravens Depth Chart
Offense
LWR	Rashod Bateman	Tylan Wallace
RWR	Zay Flowers	Devontez Walker
SWR	Deandre Hopkins	Lajohntay Wester
LT	Ronnie Stanley	Joseph Noteboom
LG	Andrew Vorhees	Ben Cleveland
C	Tyler Linderbaum	Corey Bullock
RG	Daniel Faalele	Emery Jones Jr.
RT	Roger Rosengarten	Carson Vinson
TE	Mark Andrews	Isaiah Likely
QB	Lamar Jackson	Cooper Rush
RB	Derrick Henry	Justice Hill
FB	Patrick Ricard
Defense
DE	Taven Bryan	Brent Urban
NT	John Jenkins	C.J. Okoye
DT	Travis Jones	Aeneas Peebles
RUSH	Dre'Mont Jones	Mike Green
WLB	Teddye Buchanan	Jake Hummel
MLB	Roquan Smith	Trenton Simpson
SLB	Kyle Van Noy	David Ojabo
LCB	Marlon Humphrey	T.J. Tampa
SS	Alohi Gilman	Keondre Jackson
FS	Malaki Starks
RCB	Nate Wiggins	Chidobe Awuzie
NB	Kyle Hamilton	Keyon Martin

PLAYER	TEAM	OPP	SALARY	OWN%	FPTS	G	PASS ATT	CMP%	PASS YDS	PASS TDS	INT	SACKS	AIR YDS	RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TDS
L.Jackson	BAL	CIN	6800	20.0%	18.4	8	24.38	66.7%	199.4	1.9	0.4	3.0	198.4	5.8	29.6	0.1
P.Mahomes	KC	DAL	6500	25.0%	21.5	11	37.00	64.4%	270.6	1.6	0.6	2.2	300.6	4.7	28.9	0.4
D.Prescott	DAL	KC	6300	14.3%	20.0	11	36.18	69.3%	267.4	2.1	0.6	1.5	277.5	3.5	11.5	0.2
J.Burrow	CIN	BAL	6000	17.6%	7.9	2	18.00	58.3%	94.5	1.0	0.0	2.5	123.5	1.0	1.5	0.0
J.Goff	DET	GB	5800	11.5%	17.4	11	32.00	69.3%	251.7	2.1	0.5	2.1	200.8	1.1	2.0	0.0
J.Love	GB	DET	5500	11.6%	15.7	11	30.09	67.7%	232.7	1.4	0.3	1.5	244.5	3.3	14.5	0.0

PLAYER	TEAM	OPP	SALARY	OWN%	FPTS	G	RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TDS	FMBL	REC	TGTS	REC YDS	REC TDS	REC AIR YDS	REC YAC	TGT SHR	AIR YD SHR
J.Gibbs	DET	GB	8800	35.3%	23.5	11	14.1	86.5	0.9	0.0	4.4	5.0	34.5	0.27	−1.5	40.2	16.3%	−0.8%
D.Henry	BAL	CIN	7300	38.8%	14.5	11	17.0	79.2	0.8	0.3	1.2	1.5	8.9	0.00	1.5	8.0	6.9%	1.0%
J.Jacobs	GB	DET	6800	23.5%	18.1	10	16.9	64.8	1.1	0.2	2.8	3.5	23.7	0.00	−4.9	26.9	13.2%	−2.7%
C.Brown	CIN	BAL	6500	39.9%	13.5	11	13.2	56.9	0.2	0.1	3.7	5.2	22.9	0.09	1.5	23.5	14.6%	0.6%
J.Williams	DAL	KC	6300	33.5%	16.2	11	16.5	81.5	0.7	0.1	2.5	3.5	9.7	0.09	−4.4	13.6	9.8%	−2.2%
E.Wilson	GB	DET	5800	0.8%	7.4	10	8.1	32.7	0.3	0.0	1.3	1.5	8.7	0.00	−2.9	11.8	6.3%	−1.5%
K.Hunt	KC	DAL	5300	11.2%	10.4	11	10.5	41.5	0.6	0.2	1.2	1.5	8.4	0.09	−0.6	8.8	4.5%	−0.2%
I.Pacheco	KC	DAL	5000	6.0%	7.5	8	9.8	41.1	0.1	0.0	1.4	2.1	5.4	0.12	−4.1	8.9	7.1%	−1.8%
D.Montgomery	DET	GB	4800	19.6%	10.6	11	10.5	46.5	0.4	0.1	1.6	2.0	12.3	0.00	0.5	13.1	6.5%	0.2%
K.Mitchell	BAL	CIN	4500	0.2%	3.8	6	3.8	22.3	0.0	0.2	0.8	1.0	7.3	0.00	−1.7	9.5	6.8%	−1.7%
C.Brooks	GB	DET	4300	0.0%	2.1	8	1.4	3.9	0.0	0.0	1.0	1.2	7.4	0.00	−0.5	8.5	5.9%	−0.3%
B.Smith	KC	DAL	4200	0.4%	4.4	10	2.9	8.7	0.0	0.1	1.9	2.6	16.1	0.00	−2.1	20.2	8.2%	−1.0%
S.Perine	CIN	BAL	4000	2.1%	4.2	8	4.0	24.8	0.1	0.1	0.9	1.1	3.8	0.00	−1.4	4.8	5.7%	−1.0%
J.Hill	BAL	CIN	4000	1.9%	7.2	9	2.0	10.3	0.2	0.1	2.3	3.0	18.8	0.11	−0.7	20.4	13.0%	−0.4%
M.Davis	DAL	KC	4000	0.1%	1.2	4	2.5	12.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0
H.Luepke	DAL	KC	4000	0.1%	3.1	7	0.4	1.9	0.0	0.0	1.1	1.3	9.0	0.14	−0.9	10.6	4.6%	−0.4%
J.Saylors	DET	GB	4000	0.0%	1.1	1	2.0	11.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0
S.Vaki	DET	GB	4000	0.0%	0.4	1	1.0	4.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0

PLAYER	TEAM	OPP	SALARY	OWN%	FPTS	G	REC	TGTS	REC YDS	REC TDS	REC AIR YDS	REC YAC	TGT SHR	AIR YD SHR	RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TDS
J.Chase	CIN	BAL	8000	42.8%	19.4	10	7.9	11.7	86.1	0.50	100.5	42.1	32.9%	38.7%	0.2	0.6	0.0
A.St. Brown	DET	GB	7800	38.9%	19.8	11	6.8	9.7	80.4	0.82	84.5	31.9	31.8%	42.0%	0.3	0.8	0.0
R.Rice	KC	DAL	7500	34.5%	20.2	5	6.8	9.4	78.8	0.60	46.2	51.8	26.0%	15.6%	0.8	3.6	0.2
G.Pickens	DAL	KC	7000	28.6%	20.0	11	6.1	8.4	95.8	0.73	100.5	29.3	23.2%	36.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0
C.Lamb	DAL	KC	6900	34.4%	17.1	7	6.3	10.3	90.3	0.29	124.1	27.4	28.5%	41.8%	0.1	0.3	0.0
Z.Flowers	BAL	CIN	6100	34.5%	12.9	11	5.3	7.0	69.2	0.09	63.0	30.1	28.0%	31.6%	0.7	3.8	0.0
J.Williams	DET	GB	4800	31.2%	10.7	11	2.8	4.8	51.1	0.45	66.9	22.2	15.7%	33.3%	0.4	0.9	0.0
C.Watson	GB	DET	4700	23.2%	11.5	5	3.4	4.8	56.6	0.40	94.4	6.0	16.1%	37.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0
R.Doubs	GB	DET	4600	22.1%	10.8	11	3.7	6.1	47.5	0.36	77.9	10.2	21.4%	33.2%	0.0	0.0	0.0
X.Worthy	KC	DAL	4500	22.3%	8.7	9	3.4	5.9	37.8	0.11	76.6	13.2	16.5%	27.2%	0.8	8.1	0.0
A.Iosivas	CIN	BAL	4300	8.6%	6.9	9	2.6	4.7	35.2	0.11	48.6	8.3	12.3%	16.5%	0.3	1.6	0.0
M.Brown	KC	DAL	4000	1.8%	9.7	11	3.5	5.3	39.9	0.36	52.1	12.5	15.0%	18.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
M.Golden	GB	DET	3900	0.5%	6.3	9	2.7	3.6	31.8	0.00	44.9	9.6	12.4%	19.1%	0.9	5.0	0.0
R.Bateman	BAL	CIN	3800	1.8%	5.5	9	1.8	3.4	21.6	0.22	42.2	4.0	13.5%	21.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0
M.Tinsley	CIN	BAL	3500	6.1%	5.0	5	1.0	2.4	15.6	0.40	36.4	1.4	7.1%	14.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0
D.Wicks	GB	DET	3400	6.5%	4.6	9	2.2	3.8	23.7	0.00	43.9	5.7	14.0%	19.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
D.Hopkins	BAL	CIN	3300	4.5%	4.6	11	1.4	2.4	21.1	0.18	34.4	3.1	9.5%	17.3%	0.0	0.0	0.0
R.Flournoy	DAL	KC	3200	0.6%	6.4	8	2.1	3.2	25.0	0.25	23.2	9.9	9.2%	8.5%	0.5	3.1	0.0
J.Smith-Schuster	KC	DAL	3000	0.3%	6.2	10	2.6	3.2	29.9	0.10	18.8	17.7	9.3%	6.6%	0.0	0.0	0.0
T.Wallace	BAL	CIN	3000	0.0%	2.4	6	0.7	1.3	7.5	0.17	17.8	2.8	5.2%	8.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0
K.Turpin	DAL	KC	3000	2.4%	5.2	9	1.9	2.9	25.8	0.11	20.2	11.6	7.8%	6.8%	1.0	3.3	0.0
T.Thornton	KC	DAL	3000	0.2%	7.8	9	1.7	3.4	41.3	0.33	93.9	6.0	9.5%	30.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
M.Heath	GB	DET	3000	0.0%	3.6	4	1.5	1.5	21.5	0.00	14.2	7.2	4.5%	5.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
C.Jones	CIN	BAL	3000	0.0%	3.0	2	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.00	21.0	0.0	2.9%	12.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0
D.Walker	BAL	CIN	3000	0.0%	8.3	3	1.3	1.3	30.0	0.67	29.3	0.7	5.3%	11.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0
S.Williams	GB	DET	3000	0.2%	2.5	10	1.0	1.0	7.8	0.10	1.7	6.1	5.4%	1.1%	0.9	2.8	0.0
I.TeSlaa	DET	GB	3000	0.4%	2.8	8	0.5	1.1	8.1	0.25	17.5	0.2	3.6%	9.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
D.Lovett	DET	GB	3000	0.0%

PLAYER	TEAM	OPP	SALARY	OWN%	FPTS	G	REC	TGTS	REC YDS	REC TDS	REC AIR YDS	REC YAC	TGT SHR	AIR YD SHR	RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TDS
J.Ferguson	DAL	KC	5100	9.9%	13.7	11	5.9	7.0	41.8	0.64	29.5	22.4	19.4%	10.5%	0.1	0.1	0.0
T.Kelce	KC	DAL	5000	27.6%	13.4	11	4.9	6.5	61.3	0.36	41.6	32.2	18.7%	14.5%	0.1	0.1	0.0
M.Andrews	BAL	CIN	3600	39.8%	9.3	11	3.0	4.2	25.9	0.45	30.1	6.2	16.7%	15.1%	0.8	4.1	0.1
M.Gesicki	CIN	BAL	3100	23.5%	3.6	6	2.0	3.7	16.0	0.00	32.5	2.8	11.7%	13.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0
N.Fant	CIN	BAL	3000	0.6%	7.9	9	3.4	3.9	29.4	0.33	13.0	17.0	10.7%	4.8%	0.0	0.0	0.0
B.Wright	DET	GB	2800	15.1%	5.3	7	2.0	3.1	15.4	0.29	3.1	12.3	10.0%	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0.0
L.Musgrave	GB	DET	2700	3.2%	2.9	9	1.6	1.9	13.0	0.00	12.3	4.4	6.5%	4.7%	0.0	0.0	0.0
I.Likely	BAL	CIN	2600	18.7%	3.7	7	1.9	2.7	18.3	0.00	20.6	6.7	11.2%	11.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0
R.Tonyan	KC	DAL	2500	0.0%	1.1	1	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.00	1.0	0.0	2.3%	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0.0
R.Dwelley	DET	GB	2500	0.0%	0.0	1	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	3.1%		0.0	0.0	0.0
T.Hudson	CIN	BAL	2500	1.0%	5.2	5	2.2	2.6	18.4	0.20	11.2	8.8	6.8%	3.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0
D.Sample	CIN	BAL	2500	0.0%	2.4	6	1.0	1.7	4.0	0.17	−0.5	4.0	4.9%	−0.2%	0.0	0.0	0.0
J.FitzPatrick	GB	DET	2500	0.4%	2.8	6	1.2	1.2	6.7	0.17	1.8	4.8	4.5%	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
C.Kolar	BAL	CIN	2500	0.1%	4.0	7	1.0	1.6	12.6	0.29	9.1	5.0	6.2%	5.1%	0.0	0.0	0.0
L.Schoonmaker	DAL	KC	2500	0.1%	1.6	9	0.9	1.8	7.0	0.00	15.2	4.0	4.8%	5.2%	0.0	0.0	0.0
J.Whyle	GB	DET	2500	0.1%	4.2	2	1.0	1.0	1.5	0.50	−0.5	2.0	4.3%	−0.2%	0.0	0.0	0.0
B.Spann-Ford	DAL	KC	2500	0.0%	2.2	6	0.8	1.0	3.7	0.17	5.7	2.3	2.7%	2.3%	0.0	0.0	0.0

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