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Weekly DFS Analysis- Divisional Round

 

 

Player Stats & DFS Analysis by Position Groups

On a Per Game Basis

Draftkings Salaries

OWN% = Projected Ownership on Draftkings

(Sortable Tables)

 
To perform advanced searches on player stats from 2025 click here

NOTE: Draftkings Sunday Main Slate

Top Plays: TA’s favorite plays no matter price or ownership. These are likely to be anchors in his lineups.

Value Plays: Best overall values among players with lower projected ownership (<10%)

DK Points Allowed by Position (Week 18)

Quarterback

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G PASS ATT CMP% PASS YDS PASS TDS INT SACKS AIR YDS RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
J.Allen BUF DEN 7100 13.9% 23.2 17 29.12 70.1% 231.8 1.5 0.6 2.4 213.9 7.2 36.0 0.9
M.Stafford LA CHI 6600 13.5% 20.7 18 35.50 64.5% 278.4 2.7 0.5 1.3 329.2 1.7 0.1 0.0
D.Maye NE HOU 6300 13.5% 20.5 18 28.94 71.2% 259.0 1.8 0.5 2.9 263.7 6.3 28.7 0.2
C.Williams CHI LA 6100 9.5% 18.9 18 34.22 57.5% 239.1 1.6 0.5 1.4 303.2 4.5 22.4 0.2
B.Nix DEN BUF 5800 13.7% 17.9 17 36.00 63.4% 231.2 1.5 0.6 1.3 263.9 4.9 20.9 0.3
B.Purdy SF SEA 5600 11.9% 19.4 10 31.50 68.3% 242.9 2.2 1.2 1.2 239.7 4.2 17.1 0.3
S.Darnold SEA SF 5400 16.4% 14.0 17 28.06 67.7% 238.1 1.5 0.8 1.6 220.2 2.1 5.6 0.0
C.Stroud HOU NE 5200 7.7% 14.6 15 30.33 64.6% 219.4 1.3 0.6 1.7 246.3 3.3 13.9 0.1

Top Plays:

Caleb Williams ($6100)- I think this is by far the highest scoring game on the weekend and Caleb is likely to be in a negative game state throwing and running the ball. The Rams pass defense has fallen off a cliff late in the season and from week 13 on, the Rams pass defense has allowed the 2nd highest explosive pass rate. Since week 10, 80% of opposing QBs have thrown for more yards than their season average. If this becomes a shootout, Caleb has a strong chance to lead all QBs in DK points.

Matthew Stafford ($6600)- I don’t care about the weather here, Stafford has a shot to really dominate this game. He is the QB of the #1 EPA offense with the highest team total on the board. Chicago missing their LBs, so the middle of the field will be wide open. Chicago ranks 29th in QB DK points allowed vs expected.

 

Value Plays:

Brock Purdy ($5600)– I get the hesitation but Purdy may be in a game state where he is in comeback mode and throwing a ton. SEA is 20th in opposing QB yardage over expected and 29th in attempts vs expected. That is mainly bc the SEA run defense is best in the NFL and teams are forced to throw a lot. 

CJ Stroud ($5200)- The Patriots are just league average in allowing QB yardage vs expected this season. They have faced a brutally easy schedule of opposing QBs and although they harassed Herbert last week, they are not a slam dunk elite defense. 

Runningbacks

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FMBL REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR
C.McCaffrey SF SEA 8800 48.3% 24.8 18 18.1 69.4 0.6 0.1 6.0 7.6 55.0 0.50 21.6 41.6 23.6% 8.9%
J.Cook BUF DEN 7300 25.0% 17.2 18 18.0 92.6 0.7 0.3 1.9 2.4 16.4 0.11 3.6 15.2 9.8% 2.1%
K.Williams LA CHI 6600 16.0% 15.5 18 15.1 72.7 0.6 0.1 2.1 2.9 16.6 0.22 7.4 9.2 8.8% 2.6%
R.Harvey DEN BUF 6200 34.7% 12.2 17 8.6 31.8 0.4 0.1 2.8 3.4 20.9 0.29 1.6 21.2 9.9% 0.6%
D.Swift CHI LA 6000 17.7% 14.5 17 13.9 67.1 0.6 0.1 2.1 2.9 19.8 0.06 −1.2 23.0 9.2% −0.4%
W.Marks HOU NE 5900 15.0% 9.5 17 12.6 47.9 0.2 0.1 1.4 2.2 12.2 0.18 4.8 13.1 7.1% 1.9%
R.Stevenson NE HOU 5800 14.1% 13.0 15 9.3 43.7 0.5 0.1 2.3 2.7 28.0 0.13 10.7 22.5 9.8% 4.4%
T.Henderson NE HOU 5700 4.2% 11.7 18 10.5 52.1 0.5 0.1 2.0 2.4 12.8 0.06 0.1 13.9 10.3% 0.1%
K.Walker SEA SF 5500 23.6% 11.3 17 13.0 60.4 0.3 0.0 1.8 2.1 16.6 0.00 −2.4 19.9 8.5% −1.6%
Z.Charbonnet SEA SF 5300 25.3% 11.3 16 11.5 45.6 0.8 0.0 1.2 1.5 9.0 0.00 2.5 7.7 7.4% 1.7%
B.Corum LA CHI 5100 2.7% 7.2 18 8.7 43.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.9 2.7 0.00 1.7 2.5 4.8% 1.0%
K.Monangai CHI LA 5000 4.7% 8.5 18 9.8 45.0 0.3 0.0 1.1 1.8 10.3 0.00 0.7 10.1 6.9% 0.3%
N.Chubb HOU NE 4900 0.1% 5.8 16 8.2 34.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.2 4.2 0.00 0.9 3.9 5.3% 0.5%
B.Robinson SF SEA 4800 0.0% 3.9 16 5.8 25.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.6 0.00 0.0 2.2 4.4% 0.0%
R.Davis BUF DEN 4600 0.6% 4.6 14 4.1 19.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 6.1 0.14 0.1 7.1 4.9% 0.1%
T.Johnson BUF DEN 4500 0.1% 5.9 17 2.9 11.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.9 15.5 0.12 −2.3 17.7 8.5% −1.4%
J.McLaughlin DEN BUF 4200 0.3% 3.9 8 4.6 23.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 3.4 0.00 −2.9 4.9 3.7% −2.7%
D.Ogunbowale HOU NE 4000 0.0% 2.7 9 1.2 2.8 0.1 0.0 1.1 1.4 8.4 0.00 2.7 6.2 4.7% 1.1%
T.Homer CHI LA 4000 0.0% −0.2 1 1.0 −2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

C.Akers SEA SF 4000 0.0% 3.6 2 2.5 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.00 −3.0 0.0 4.2% −3.2%
A.Prentice DEN BUF 4000 0.0% 1.3 12 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 4.4 0.00 0.8 3.6 3.5% 0.7%
T.Badie DEN BUF 4000 0.0% 2.5 14 0.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.2 10.1 0.00 −3.1 15.0 6.6% −1.3%
R.Rivers LA CHI 4000 0.0% 2.3 2 4.5 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

B.Brooks HOU NE 4000 0.0% 2.6 3 5.7 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

T.Jennings NE HOU 4000 0.0% 3.0 5 4.6 14.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.8 0.00 0.4 1.4 3.6% 0.7%
R.Ouzts SEA SF 4000 0.0%













Top Plays:

Zach Charbonnet ($5300)– Splitting hairs between he and Walker but he’s $200 cheaper and is much more of the GL RB for TD equity. He has gone for 122 and 97 total yards with 3 TDs in his last two games.

De’Andre Swift ($6000)- He out touched Monangai 27 to 18 the last two weeks. Since week 11, the Rams are a bottom five run defense and the Bears have proven to run on anyone.

RJ Harvey ($6200)- Harvey will be the 2nd most owned RB most likely due to the matchup vs this poor BUF run defense. I actually like Harvey a lot in the pass game as well which adds to his upside considering the Bills play a cover 2 defense and allows for RBs to gain easy touches.

James Cook ($7300)– On the surface, people may be avoiding Cook bc of the perceived strength of the Denver run defense but on inside runs, where Cook is 10th among RBs on inside run %, the Broncos are 7th worst in adjusted ypc to RBs. I think BUF will feed Cook a lot and from a pure volume standpoint he can exceed expectations.

 

Best Values:

Blake Corum ($5100)- Awesome value this week with Corum at this price. The Bears rank 26th in success rate and 29th in adjusted line yards allowed. They also rank 24th in explosive runs allowed. Corum is splitting carries with Kyren almost exactly 50/50 and is more explosive yet we can click him at $1500 cheaper. Its a no brainer for me.

Jaleel McLaughlin ($4200)- If you just wanted to plug in a really cheap RB McLaughlin is worth a look.  He has gone for 37, 40 and 41 rush yards in his last three games to end the season. Maybe he can break off a big run or grab a reception but he can at least get you a few points with upside.

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
P.Nacua LA CHI 9000 41.8% 24.1 17 8.2 10.8 107.4 0.65 105.8 41.4 31.2% 33.1% 0.8 7.0 0.1
J.Smith-Njigba SEA SF 8500 49.9% 21.2 17 7.0 9.6 105.5 0.59 107.8 31.1 35.8% 50.1% 0.4 2.1 0.0
D.Adams LA CHI 6500 29.8% 15.7 15 4.3 8.5 57.4 0.93 109.3 8.8 25.3% 36.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Sutton DEN BUF 5900 24.9% 12.9 17 4.4 7.3 59.8 0.41 90.7 13.1 21.2% 35.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
S.Diggs NE HOU 5800 25.3% 11.9 18 4.8 5.9 57.2 0.22 50.4 19.9 21.0% 19.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Jennings SF SEA 5400 13.2% 11.5 16 3.5 5.8 43.0 0.56 58.2 13.0 18.8% 24.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
R.Odunze CHI LA 5300 4.3% 11.7 13 3.5 7.4 54.2 0.46 105.8 16.8 22.5% 36.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Shakir BUF DEN 5100 23.5% 11.0 17 4.9 6.3 47.1 0.24 21.8 35.4 22.0% 10.6% 0.1 0.3 0.0
T.Franklin DEN BUF 4900 1.0% 10.4 17 3.8 6.1 41.7 0.35 77.7 16.6 17.8% 30.2% 0.3 0.7 0.0
R.Pearsall SF SEA 4800 1.8% 9.8 9 4.0 5.9 58.7 0.00 83.1 8.2 18.4% 34.6% 0.2 −0.2 0.0
L.Burden CHI LA 4700 12.8% 8.4 16 3.1 4.2 43.4 0.12 34.1 22.2 13.0% 12.0% 0.4 2.1 0.0
J.Higgins HOU NE 4600 16.1% 7.6 18 2.4 4.0 31.3 0.33 49.3 7.2 12.3% 18.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Robinson SF SEA 4400 2.4% 5.4 15 1.9 2.8 25.8 0.13 37.7 5.4 8.9% 15.7% 0.1 0.4 0.0
K.Boutte NE HOU 4300 5.8% 9.0 15 2.5 3.3 41.1 0.40 54.7 4.3 11.8% 21.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
R.Shaheed SEA SF 4200 2.3% 8.7 18 3.3 5.1 38.2 0.11 58.5 9.8 16.7% 25.1% 0.5 3.8 0.0
C.Kirk HOU NE 4100 18.9% 7.2 12 3.0 5.1 31.9 0.17 37.9 14.2 15.5% 13.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Cooks BUF DEN 4000 2.1% 4.3 14 1.9 2.9 24.1 0.00 45.0 3.3 9.4% 18.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
P.Bryant DEN BUF 3900 14.5% 6.2 12 2.6 4.1 31.5 0.08 34.2 12.2 11.7% 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Williams NE HOU 3800 0.0% 3.6 14 0.8 1.6 15.4 0.21 29.1 5.6 5.9% 11.6% 0.1 0.2 0.0
K.Bourne SF SEA 3700 0.1% 6.6 14 2.6 3.8 39.4 0.00 41.7 11.8 11.5% 16.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Noel HOU NE 3600 0.5% 4.6 15 1.7 2.4 19.5 0.13 24.0 6.6 7.8% 9.0% 0.4 0.8 0.0
C.Kupp SEA SF 3500 18.4% 7.3 16 2.9 4.4 37.1 0.12 32.8 18.3 16.2% 15.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Coleman BUF DEN 3500 2.0% 8.2 13 3.0 4.6 33.8 0.31 52.1 8.2 16.0% 25.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
X.Hutchinson HOU NE 3400 10.5% 6.0 17 2.2 3.6 26.4 0.18 35.9 9.1 11.9% 14.4% 0.2 1.3 0.0
M.Mims DEN BUF 3400 1.7% 6.3 15 2.5 3.4 21.5 0.07 31.9 15.4 10.5% 14.1% 0.8 5.2 0.1
O.Zaccheaus CHI LA 3300 0.1% 6.2 15 2.7 4.5 21.4 0.20 31.8 9.3 13.9% 11.2% 0.3 1.7 0.0
D.Douglas NE HOU 3300 4.1% 5.7 17 1.9 2.8 26.5 0.18 26.1 13.1 10.2% 10.2% 0.4 1.2 0.0
C.Samuel BUF DEN 3200 0.0% 4.2 5 1.4 1.8 16.2 0.20 29.0 5.4 6.2% 11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
L.Humphrey DEN BUF 3200 0.0% 4.9 7 1.9 3.6 22.3 0.14 39.6 4.1 9.9% 16.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Mumpfield LA CHI 3100 0.0% 2.7 10 1.1 2.4 10.3 0.10 30.1 3.1 6.7% 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Berrios HOU NE 3000 0.0% 4.8 2 3.0 4.0 18.5 0.00 12.0 9.0 9.5% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Hardman BUF DEN 3000 0.0% 0.0 1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 46.0 0.0 3.3% 13.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Duvernay CHI LA 3000 0.0% 1.5 3 0.7 1.7 8.7 0.00 25.0 0.0 4.9% 9.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Atwell LA CHI 3000 0.0% 3.9 8 0.8 1.9 24.0 0.12 37.8 8.4 5.2% 10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Young SEA SF 3000 0.0% 2.3 3 0.7 1.0 16.0 0.00 19.0 0.0 3.8% 9.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
S.Moore SF SEA 3000 0.0% 1.5 10 0.5 0.8 8.7 0.00 11.9 2.9 3.1% 5.8% 0.3 1.4 0.0
X.Smith LA CHI 3000 0.1% 4.8 10 1.8 2.4 30.3 0.00 40.5 10.7 7.2% 13.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Bobo SEA SF 3000 0.0% 2.0 2 1.0 1.0 10.0 0.00 7.0 3.0 3.8% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Whittington LA CHI 3000 0.0% 2.8 13 1.4 1.9 13.2 0.00 13.2 6.8 6.0% 4.7% 0.2 0.9 0.0
E.Chism NE HOU 3000 0.0% 6.5 3 1.3 1.3 31.7 0.33 17.0 14.7 5.6% 7.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

Puka Nacua ($9000)- Not sure what needs to be said here. He is made for games in cold weather like this and will be so hard to tackle. He saw 21 targets last week. Outside of he and JSN, the top of the WR is so thin that you can easily fit him into your lineups. 

Davante Adams ($6500)- I am perfectly ok having one or both of Puka and Adams in lineups. Adams is pretty cheap for someone who just saw a 31% target share last week and is def used to playing in freezing temps. The Bears rank 3rd worst in yards per target allowed to outside WRs.

DJ Moore ($5200)- I want to be able to include one Bears WR in lineups considering I also like Caleb. I decided on the most veteran WR on the team who is most used to playing in these conditions and plays outside WR at the highest rate on the team. The Rams have been much better vs the slot than outside WRs where they rank 4th worst in yards per target allowed and 8th worst in yac over expected. The Rams have been giving up huge chunks thru the air for two months now and Moore is the deep ball threat for CHI.

Best Values:

Xavier Hutchinson ($3400)- Hutch has seen 11%, 32% and 15% target shares in his last three games and that 32% came when Nico Collins was out. I don’t think it will get nearly that high but low-mid teens with likely more defensive emphasis on slowing down Christian Kirk after last week’s blowout game, could lead to nice upside for Hutch.

Pat Bryant ($3900)– This is mega cheap for a guy who has run 60%+ of his team’s routes in six straight games when he was active. He has seen 16%+ target share games in five of his last seven games as well. Vs 2 high shells that BUF deploys, Bryant is third in target share.

Kayshon Boutte ($4300)- Taking a flier on Boutte who will not have much ownership at all. He is Maye’s top deep threat and the one area that you can get to the Texans is thru the deep ball. Boutte is top 20 in the NFL with 10 deep receptions this year and is a WR who can go up and get it in tight coverage for NE.  HOU has allowed at least one 19+ yard reception in all but one game this season.

Keon Coleman ($3500)- SOMEBODY is going to catch balls from Josh Allen not named Shakir and Kincaid. Everyone is gravitating to Cooks but I think for the price and expected ownership, I would look at Coleman as a sleeper. Look, he stinks, but he has proven to see strong target share in the past and even this season he has seen 13%+ target share in nine games. For the price and the expectation that he will probably run 70%+ of the team’s snaps and is the only true outside WR left on the roster, why not.

Tight Ends

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
C.Loveland CHI LA 5500 23.6% 11.1 17 3.9 5.7 50.0 0.35 56.1 16.5 17.9% 19.6% 0.1 −0.1 0.0
H.Henry NE HOU 4500 15.4% 10.8 18 3.5 5.1 46.2 0.44 44.5 19.2 18.1% 17.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Kincaid BUF DEN 4300 8.9% 10.6 13 3.2 4.2 46.1 0.46 38.7 20.5 14.6% 18.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Schultz HOU NE 4200 22.6% 10.1 18 4.7 6.1 43.8 0.17 37.9 19.9 18.8% 14.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Parkinson LA CHI 3700 4.0% 9.4 15 3.0 3.9 29.5 0.60 17.3 19.4 11.1% 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Barner SEA SF 3600 16.3% 8.7 17 3.1 4.0 30.5 0.35 17.5 15.9 15.3% 8.4% 0.6 0.8 0.1
E.Engram DEN BUF 3500 2.8% 6.4 16 3.1 4.8 28.8 0.06 20.7 18.9 13.5% 8.0% 0.1 0.4 0.0
J.Tonges SF SEA 3400 28.3% 9.6 10 3.5 4.9 30.7 0.50 27.0 14.7 13.6% 9.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Knox BUF DEN 3300 2.9% 6.5 17 2.3 3.1 26.3 0.24 20.9 10.9 10.7% 9.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Higbee LA CHI 3200 6.6% 7.8 10 2.7 3.9 32.6 0.30 15.8 15.4 11.6% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Kmet CHI LA 3000 0.6% 4.6 17 1.8 2.9 20.4 0.12 25.4 8.8 9.2% 9.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0
T.Ferguson LA CHI 2700 0.1% 4.7 11 1.0 2.3 21.0 0.27 42.4 3.6 7.0% 12.9% 0.1 0.0 0.0
A.Hooper NE HOU 2500 1.2% 4.2 14 1.5 2.0 18.8 0.14 18.6 6.1 7.1% 7.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
E.Saubert SEA SF 2500 0.0% 1.8 5 0.8 1.4 6.2 0.00 5.6 3.2 6.7% 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Smythe CHI LA 2500 0.0% 1.6 5 1.0 1.6 6.2 0.00 9.4 3.0 4.7% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
H.Bryant HOU NE 2500 0.0% 0.7 4 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.00 14.5 0.0 4.6% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Trautman DEN BUF 2500 0.2% 4.1 11 1.8 2.1 17.7 0.09 9.6 9.5 5.7% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
L.Farrell SF SEA 2500 0.2% 3.0 10 1.1 1.5 8.5 0.20 3.7 5.2 4.6% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Willis SF SEA 2500 0.0% 0.0 1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 2.0 0.0 2.6% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.Adkins DEN BUF 2500 0.0% 2.8 6 1.0 1.8 8.0 0.17 5.8 4.3 4.9% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Allen LA CHI 2500 0.0% 4.2 15 1.6 2.2 13.9 0.20 8.7 9.1 6.4% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Stover HOU NE 2500 0.7% 3.4 7 2.0 2.6 12.7 0.00 5.0 8.7 8.7% 2.2% 0.7 1.0 0.0
N.Kallerup SEA SF 2500 0.0% 0.0 1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 8.0 0.0 8.3% 6.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Hawes BUF DEN 2500 0.2% 4.1 13 1.2 1.5 14.4 0.23 10.7 7.0 5.3% 6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

Colston Loveland ($5500)- Goes without saying that Loveland is the top play this week considering he has seen 25%, 44% and 32% massive target shares the last three games. Those are like Puka/JSN WR type figures. There is no reason to believe he won’t to see huge volume again. 

Dalton Schultz ($4200)- No Nico Collins which elevates Schultz’s profile. Also the Patriots rank 27th in DK points vs expected to TEs and has allowed a top 10 weekly TE at the 8th highest rate.

 

Best Values:

Jake Tonges ($3400)- Tonges fills in for George Kittle and he has seen Kittle like usage when he has started. He has 41+ yards in four games along with five total TDs. SEA funnels targets to TEs and RBs so he should see nice volume.