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Weekly DFS Analysis- Divisional Round

 

 

Player Stats & DFS Analysis by Position Groups

On a Per Game Basis

Draftkings Salaries

OWN% = Projected Ownership on Draftkings

(Sortable Tables)

 
To perform advanced searches on player stats from 2025 click here

NOTE: Draftkings Sunday Main Slate

Top Plays: TA’s favorite plays no matter price or ownership. These are likely to be anchors in his lineups.

Value Plays: Best overall values among players with lower projected ownership (<10%)

DK Points Allowed by Position (Week 18)

Quarterback

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G PASS ATT CMP% PASS YDS PASS TDS INT SACKS AIR YDS RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
M.Stafford LA SEA 6300 25.0% 20.1 19 35.84 63.4% 277.3 2.6 0.5 1.5 334.0 1.7 0.0 0.0
D.Maye NE DEN 6000 33.5% 20.2 19 28.84 70.6% 254.8 1.8 0.5 3.0 263.8 6.2 27.7 0.2
S.Darnold SEA LA 5500 25.0% 13.7 18 27.44 67.8% 231.8 1.4 0.8 1.6 216.6 1.9 5.3 0.0
J.Stidham DEN NE 4500 16.5% −0.1 1 0.00
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 −1.0 0.0

Top Plays:

Matthew Stafford ($6300)- I just have to back the most sure thing at QB this season with Stafford. He has already proven he can dice up this SEA defense to the tune of 33 DK points in their last matchup. And that was without Davante Adams. In the worst case with the Rams trailing, Stafford will have to throw the ball to come back. The SEA defense is a pure pass funnel bc their run defense is historically good so the volume should be there for Stafford.

 

Jarret Stidham ($4500)- I don’t expect a monster game from Stidham but he certainly has the attributes to score enough to meet this salary. The Patriots pass defense has been excellent this year but they have also faced by far the easiest schedule of opposing QBs this season. Stidham isn’t the runner that Nix is but he has shown the ability to move when needed. The Pats run defense has been elite with Milton Williams in the lineup so I suspect this will be a pass heavy script.

Runningbacks

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FMBL REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR
K.Williams LA SEA 6500 39.0% 16.1 19 15.4 73.5 0.6 0.1 2.2 3.0 17.3 0.21 8.1 9.3 9.0% 2.8%
K.Walker SEA LA 6200 81.8% 12.6 18 13.3 63.5 0.4 0.0 1.9 2.2 17.3 0.00 −2.1 20.2 8.8% −1.3%
R.Stevenson NE DEN 6000 44.0% 12.9 16 9.8 45.4 0.4 0.1 2.4 2.8 26.9 0.12 9.2 22.6 10.1% 3.8%
R.Harvey DEN NE 5900 43.0% 12.1 18 8.4 31.1 0.4 0.1 2.9 3.6 22.3 0.28 1.6 22.5 10.2% 0.6%
T.Henderson NE DEN 5500 14.2% 11.3 19 10.6 50.7 0.5 0.1 1.9 2.4 12.0 0.05 −0.3 13.2 10.2% −0.1%
B.Corum LA SEA 5000 5.7% 6.9 19 8.5 42.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.8 2.6 0.00 1.6 2.4 4.8% 1.0%
J.McLaughlin DEN NE 4400 4.1% 3.7 9 4.6 23.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.8 3.0 0.00 −2.9 4.3 3.4% −2.3%
T.Badie DEN NE 4200 0.1% 2.5 15 0.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.2 9.9 0.00 −2.7 14.4 6.4% −1.1%
D.Johnson NE DEN 4000 0.0% 0.5 5 2.8 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

A.Prentice DEN NE 4000 0.0% 1.2 13 0.8 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 4.1 0.00 0.8 3.3 3.3% 0.6%
R.Rivers LA SEA 4000 0.0% 2.3 2 4.5 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

V.Jones SEA LA 4000 0.0% 2.1 2 5.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

G.Holani SEA LA 4000 2.3% 4.2 5 4.4 14.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 3.0 0.00 −0.2 3.2 10.0% −0.6%
R.Ouzts SEA LA 4000 0.0% 0.0 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0 6.2%

Top Plays:

Kenneth Walker ($6200)- Everyone will have Walker but at this price what can you do. He is the only true healthy RB for Seattle and has had success this season vs the Rams. He carried the ball 27 times for 167 rush yards and 2 TDs. Not to mention 108 receiving yards.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6000)- Through two playoff games, Stevenson has almost doubled the number of snaps of Henderson so far. Stevenson has also been ultra efficient of late and is a much better pass protector than Stevenson so no reason he won’t continue this rate. He ranks #1 in the NFL in rush yards over expected on runs between the tackles while the DEN run defense ranks 30th in ypc on those inside runs since week 11.

Treyveon Henderson ($5500)- If you want to be a bit contrarian, I would take Henderson and hope he hits a big play or two to pay off. The Broncos run defense has been softer than most would perceive as mentioned above. He is one big run away from really paying off.

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
P.Nacua LA SEA 9000 61.0% 23.4 18 8.0 10.8 104.6 0.61 105.2 40.9 30.8% 32.5% 0.8 6.9 0.1
J.Smith-Njigba SEA LA 8000 72.0% 20.6 18 6.8 9.3 100.7 0.61 103.4 30.1 35.5% 48.8% 0.4 2.0 0.0
D.Adams LA SEA 6000 47.5% 15.0 16 4.2 8.3 55.3 0.88 108.3 8.2 24.5% 35.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
S.Diggs NE DEN 5800 38.0% 12.0 19 4.8 5.9 56.3 0.26 50.6 19.8 21.1% 19.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Sutton DEN NE 5700 33.0% 12.7 18 4.3 7.4 59.4 0.39 91.9 12.8 21.2% 35.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Boutte NE DEN 4500 23.2% 9.5 16 2.5 3.4 43.2 0.44 56.4 5.4 12.3% 22.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
P.Bryant DEN NE 4400 14.0% 6.2 13 2.6 4.0 31.5 0.08 33.2 12.2 11.3% 12.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Mims DEN NE 4200 16.9% 7.4 16 2.8 3.7 25.9 0.12 33.4 16.8 11.2% 14.4% 0.8 4.9 0.1
R.Shaheed SEA LA 4100 12.0% 8.7 19 3.1 4.9 36.2 0.11 58.7 9.3 16.6% 25.6% 0.6 5.1 0.0
M.Hollins NE DEN 3900 0.1% 8.1 14 3.3 4.6 39.3 0.14 60.8 7.7 15.9% 22.2% 0.1 0.3 0.0
C.Kupp SEA LA 3800 26.0% 7.5 17 3.1 4.4 38.4 0.12 34.1 17.6 16.8% 16.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Douglas NE DEN 3600 6.0% 6.0 18 1.9 2.8 27.0 0.22 25.2 13.7 10.1% 10.0% 0.4 1.2 0.0
K.Williams NE DEN 3500 0.5% 3.4 15 0.7 1.7 14.4 0.20 31.6 5.3 6.2% 12.7% 0.1 0.2 0.0
L.Humphrey DEN NE 3400 2.7% 5.7 8 1.9 3.8 23.6 0.25 43.1 3.6 10.2% 17.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Mumpfield LA SEA 3200 0.0% 2.8 11 1.2 2.5 10.4 0.09 28.4 3.5 6.8% 7.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Whittington LA SEA 3100 0.1% 3.0 14 1.4 1.9 14.7 0.00 12.8 8.2 5.9% 4.4% 0.3 0.9 0.0
E.Moore DEN NE 3000 0.1% 3.2 9 1.0 1.9 12.4 0.00 15.8 6.4 7.0% 8.1% 0.7 2.7 0.1
D.Young SEA LA 3000 0.0% 2.3 3 0.7 1.0 16.0 0.00 19.0 0.0 3.8% 9.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
X.Smith LA SEA 3000 0.0% 4.8 10 1.8 2.4 30.3 0.00 40.5 10.7 7.2% 13.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Bobo SEA LA 3000 0.0% 2.2 3 1.0 1.0 12.0 0.00 6.7 5.3 4.3% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

Puka Nacua ($9000)- Its as easy as it gets to take the most sure thing of the week at WR. Puka torched SEA for 225 yards, 2 TDs and nearly 50 DK points in their last matchup. He is opponent proof at this point.

 

Davante Adams ($6000)- I am buying the dip on Adams after a disappointing game last week. Maybe the frigid temps effected his ability to separate from coverage last week but he didn’t look right. This price is too low to ignore.

 

DeMario Douglas ($3600)- Douglas is my favorite cheap alternative at WR. He is capable of putting up a goose egg but he has been Maye’s favorite target when facing a blitz, like he likely will this week. Versus similar blitz heavy defense this year vs ATL he put up up his best game with 23 DK points. He also scored a TD last week vs HOU and is a good way to distinguish in lineups in large tournaments.

 

Marvin Mims Jr. ($4200)- Mims is another good cheap upside WR option and as we saw last week, his big play capabilities give him strong upside.

Tight Ends

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
H.Henry NE DEN 4800 39.0% 10.3 19 3.4 4.9 44.1 0.42 42.5 18.3 17.6% 16.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Barner SEA LA 4000 28.0% 8.2 18 2.9 3.8 28.8 0.33 16.5 15.1 15.3% 8.4% 0.6 0.9 0.1
C.Parkinson LA SEA 3500 18.0% 9.4 16 3.0 4.1 31.1 0.56 19.9 20.9 11.5% 6.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
E.Engram DEN NE 3300 11.0% 6.1 17 3.0 4.6 27.5 0.06 20.3 17.9 13.1% 7.8% 0.1 0.4 0.0
T.Higbee LA SEA 3000 5.2% 7.4 11 2.5 3.7 32.1 0.27 17.3 14.8 10.9% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Ferguson LA SEA 2700 4.4% 4.6 12 1.0 2.5 20.8 0.25 45.7 3.6 7.5% 13.7% 0.1 0.0 0.0
A.Hooper NE DEN 2500 4.3% 4.1 15 1.5 2.0 18.5 0.13 18.7 6.5 7.1% 7.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
E.Saubert SEA LA 2500 0.7% 1.8 5 0.8 1.4 6.2 0.00 5.6 3.2 6.7% 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Trautman DEN NE 2500 1.4% 3.8 12 1.7 2.1 16.2 0.08 10.3 8.7 5.6% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.Adkins DEN NE 2500 0.2% 2.6 7 1.0 1.7 7.0 0.14 5.1 3.7 4.5% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Allen LA SEA 2500 0.0% 4.2 15 1.6 2.2 13.9 0.20 8.7 9.1 6.4% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
E.Arroyo SEA LA 2500 0.5% 2.8 13 1.2 2.0 13.8 0.08 16.9 6.0 7.7% 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

 

Hunter Henry ($4800)- Henry is the clear top choice at TE for me this weekend based on matchup. The Broncos are a heavy man defense. Maye has really targeted his TEs, Hunter Henry in particular, vs man this season. Henry is tied with Diggs for highest target share vs man coverage but has been the #1 target when it comes to first reads. The Broncos rank league average when it comes to the rate of opposing TEs meeting their seasonal yardage and reception marks. DEN has allowed the 7th highest target share to TEs on an adjusted basis. I had under in Henry yardage last week vs the elite HOU defense so maybe his numbers get depressed a bit this week and we can buy low on the over.

 

Terrance Ferguson ($2700)- Ferguson is my top cheap value this week. He saw a decent 12.5% target share and 20% air yard share last week. SEA funnels the most target to TEs in the NFL so Ferguson will have his chances.