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Weekly DFS Analysis- Week 13

 

 

Player Stats & DFS Analysis by Position Groups

On a Per Game Basis

Draftkings Salaries

OWN% = Projected Ownership on Draftkings

(Sortable Tables)

 
To perform advanced searches on player stats from 2025 click here

NOTE: Draftkings Sunday Main Slate

Top Plays: TA’s favorite plays no matter price or ownership. These are likely to be anchors in his lineups.

Value Plays: Best overall values among players with lower projected ownership (<10%)

DK Points Allowed by Position (Week 13)

Quarterback

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G PASS ATT CMP% PASS YDS PASS TDS INT SACKS AIR YDS RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
J.Allen BUF PIT 7500 8.0% 23.2 11 29.73 69.7% 246.3 1.6 0.8 2.5 231.7 6.4 33.7 0.9
M.Stafford LA CAR 7000 5.3% 20.4 11 33.91 66.5% 257.3 2.7 0.2 1.4 287.6 2.2 −0.8 0.0
J.Herbert LAC LV 6500 11.1% 18.7 11 34.18 66.5% 244.6 1.7 0.8 3.2 254.7 4.9 31.4 0.1
D.Jones IND HOU 6300 5.0% 19.0 11 31.82 69.1% 258.2 1.5 0.6 1.9 255.8 3.9 14.5 0.4
B.Purdy SF CLE 6000 1.0% 15.3 4 32.75 68.7% 244.8 2.0 1.8 0.8 237.2 3.5 9.8 0.0
B.Mayfield TB ARI 5900 5.0% 16.7 11 32.64 62.7% 218.7 1.6 0.5 2.0 268.7 2.8 19.6 0.1
J.Brissett ARI TB 5800 5.1% 15.7 8 32.75 66.8% 235.9 1.4 0.4 3.0 256.9 3.0 12.5 0.1
S.Darnold SEA MIN 5600 6.2% 14.9 11 27.09 69.5% 253.2 1.7 0.9 1.0 244.2 1.5 4.5 0.0
T.Lawrence JAX TEN 5400 6.3% 15.9 11 33.45 59.8% 218.8 1.3 1.0 2.6 272.1 4.9 19.1 0.4
B.Young CAR LA 5300 1.5% 12.5 11 31.18 62.7% 193.7 1.4 0.8 1.8 199.1 2.5 8.9 0.1
A.Rodgers PIT BUF 5100 2.3% 14.5 10 28.90 66.4% 196.9 1.9 0.7 1.9 172.3 1.4 2.6 0.0
C.Stroud HOU IND 5000 12.9% 15.1 8 30.25 66.5% 212.8 1.4 0.6 2.1 236.4 3.6 23.6 0.0
T.Tagovailoa MIA NO 4900 6.5% 11.9 11 28.36 68.3% 193.0 1.5 1.2 1.9 192.3 1.3 3.5 0.0
K.Cousins ATL NYJ 4800 1.4% 6.2 4 18.75 64.0% 112.2 0.5 0.2 1.0 147.5 1.2 2.2 0.0
C.Ward TEN JAX 4600 3.6% 10.0 11 34.00 59.4% 200.9 0.6 0.5 4.1 250.7 2.5 10.5 0.1
G.Smith LV LAC 4500 2.6% 12.0 11 32.09 66.6% 215.2 1.2 1.2 3.7 199.5 3.4 10.0 0.0
T.Shough NO MIA 4400 6.4% 8.1 5 25.20 64.3% 165.8 0.6 0.6 2.0 213.2 3.0 6.6 0.0
T.Taylor NYJ ATL 4300 7.0% 10.0 4 24.25 61.9% 150.2 1.0 1.0 3.0 202.0 4.8 24.8 0.0
S.Sanders CLE SF 4200 0.7% 5.9 2 18.00 41.7% 128.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 152.5 2.0 7.5 0.0
M.Brosmer MIN SEA 4000 2.2% 0.5 3 2.67 62.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 −0.3 0.0

Top Plays:

This is a pretty awful slate of QBs between guys like Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, Jalen Hurts and Drake Maye all playing in non main slate games and others facing some serious wind/weather concerns.

 

Jacoby Brissett ($5800)- Rinse and repeat. I keep going to the Brissett well and he keeps delivering. Tampa opponents throw the football at the highest rate in the league when adjusted for schedule and we know the Cards love to sling it with Jacoby (2nd highest neutral game pass rate). The Bucs secondary has been getting torched and rank 22nd in DK points allowed vs expected. The Bucs have allowed 7.8 ypa or higher in six of their last seven games.

 

Josh Allen ($7500)- The only true elite QB on the slate and in a must win situation where Allen likely will need to use his legs a lot with a beat up OL, I am ok spending up on Josh. Pittsburgh has given up the 4th most top 10 QB weeks this season in DFS.

 

Justin Herbert ($6500)- Herbert has probably the best combo of matchup and no weather concerns. The Raiders pass defense is a mess and are a true pass funnel. The Raiders rank 17th in DK points vs expected at QB and after a bye, maybe the Chargers have a somewhat fixed OL.

 

Value Plays:

Matt Stafford ($7000)- I know it’s a bit risky to start a QB at $7k as a double digit favorite but I am fine with it. He faces a decimated Carolina pass defense that is without #1 CB Jaycee Horn, S Trevor Moehrig and multiple LBs. In addition, the Panthers are a pass funnel and on a schedule adjusted basis, opponents throw on Carolina at the 3rd highest rate in the league.

 

Cam Ward ($4600)- Ward likely has limited big upside here but the way he has started to use his legs more and more, the potential for hidden value being unlocked for Cam. He has had to face an absolute murderers row of opposing defenses so the Jags pass defense is a reprieve and the easiest he has faced all season by a mile. The Jags have allowed the 9th most DK points over expected to QBs this season.

Runningbacks

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FMBL REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR
J.Taylor IND HOU 9800 8.6% 25.7 11 18.6 108.8 1.4 0.0 2.9 3.2 24.4 0.18 −3.5 28.0 10.1% −1.3%
C.McCaffrey SF CLE 9300 13.2% 25.9 12 18.1 66.3 0.6 0.1 6.8 8.6 65.4 0.42 21.2 51.5 25.4% 8.5%
B.Robinson ATL NYJ 8500 19.7% 20.4 11 15.6 77.5 0.4 0.2 4.5 5.5 49.4 0.18 7.1 46.4 18.2% 2.7%
D.Achane MIA NO 8300 38.1% 21.4 11 14.9 81.8 0.4 0.1 4.9 6.5 33.6 0.36 1.7 40.9 22.2% 0.9%
J.Cook BUF PIT 7600 9.6% 18.6 11 18.1 98.5 0.7 0.2 2.2 2.4 18.5 0.09 3.1 15.6 9.5% 1.6%
B.Irving TB ARI 7000 1.3% 18.0 4 17.8 59.2 0.0 0.2 4.8 4.8 48.2 0.50 −10.2 58.5 14.2% −3.5%
R.Dowdle CAR LA 6900 7.8% 14.5 12 14.5 72.6 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.8 19.4 0.08 −2.4 21.7 10.1% −1.3%
K.Williams LA CAR 6600 13.5% 15.6 11 15.5 72.4 0.6 0.2 2.2 2.9 16.7 0.27 8.0 8.7 9.6% 3.6%
T.Etienne JAX TEN 6500 9.6% 14.9 11 15.4 74.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 3.4 14.5 0.18 −6.0 18.6 10.3% −2.2%
A.Jeanty LV LAC 6400 14.3% 15.0 11 15.1 54.9 0.4 0.1 3.4 4.2 20.1 0.36 −11.0 30.0 14.6% −6.4%
J.Warren PIT BUF 6300 5.5% 13.1 10 14.1 60.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 2.8 21.9 0.10 −5.0 26.3 10.4% −4.2%
Q.Judkins CLE SF 6200 4.9% 13.0 10 17.3 66.7 0.7 0.0 1.4 2.0 7.0 0.00 −0.2 6.8 7.1% −0.1%
B.Hall NYJ ATL 6000 25.0% 13.9 11 15.3 69.6 0.2 0.2 2.5 3.4 27.4 0.09 3.0 24.1 13.6% 1.6%
W.Marks HOU IND 5800 4.4% 9.2 11 10.5 38.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 2.4 16.8 0.18 3.6 17.5 7.4% 1.5%
K.Vidal LAC LV 5700 13.8% 11.0 7 13.7 59.6 0.3 0.1 1.7 2.3 7.4 0.14 −3.6 11.3 6.9% −1.7%
A.Jones MIN SEA 5600 7.5% 10.1 7 8.7 42.4 0.1 0.0 2.3 3.7 18.3 0.14 2.9 17.4 14.1% 1.5%
S.Tucker TB ARI 5500 0.2% 8.6 8 7.9 34.6 0.5 0.1 1.0 1.2 4.2 0.12 −1.8 6.1 5.5% −1.0%
K.Gainwell PIT BUF 5300 4.5% 11.5 11 6.5 30.5 0.3 0.1 3.8 4.4 21.3 0.18 −3.4 26.7 15.0% −2.6%
K.Walker SEA MIN 5300 19.8% 11.3 11 13.4 61.5 0.4 0.0 1.5 1.7 14.3 0.00 −0.6 15.3 7.4% −0.4%
B.Knight ARI TB 5200 3.4% 10.0 7 9.0 27.6 0.6 0.0 2.3 3.1 15.1 0.00 0.7 16.1 7.9% 0.3%
J.Mason MIN SEA 5100 0.0% 8.9 11 10.5 48.3 0.4 0.2 1.1 1.3 4.0 0.00 −3.9 7.8 6.6% −2.8%
R.White TB ARI 5000 0.3% 9.9 11 9.5 37.6 0.4 0.0 2.6 3.0 13.5 0.00 −5.5 20.2 9.1% −2.0%
D.Neal NO MIA 5000 8.9% 4.1 6 2.8 10.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 10.7 0.00 −5.5 15.5 9.8% −2.7%
T.Pollard TEN JAX 4900 2.4% 9.4 11 12.7 47.5 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.9 15.3 0.00 1.3 13.9 9.2% 0.5%
N.Chubb HOU IND 4800 0.0% 6.7 11 9.5 39.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.7 5.3 0.00 1.0 5.3 5.6% 0.4%
Z.Charbonnet SEA MIN 4800 0.9% 9.6 10 11.1 38.5 0.7 0.0 0.9 1.0 6.7 0.00 1.6 5.3 5.6% 1.1%
T.Spears TEN JAX 4700 1.0% 8.4 7 5.3 22.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 3.4 21.1 0.00 −6.0 27.1 12.1% −2.9%
D.Sampson CLE SF 4700 0.0% 5.8 11 3.5 8.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.5 17.7 0.18 −3.5 20.3 8.6% −2.1%
T.Johnson BUF PIT 4600 0.0% 4.4 11 1.9 8.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.5 14.6 0.09 0.0 15.8 6.4% 0.0%
B.Corum LA CAR 4600 0.5% 4.2 11 7.5 31.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.00 0.8 2.0 5.7% 0.6%
T.Allgeier ATL NYJ 4500 1.1% 7.8 11 8.1 29.5 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 2.8 0.00 −0.8 3.2 5.2% −0.7%
I.Davis NYJ ATL 4500 0.2% 4.2 10 2.6 13.7 0.0 0.0 1.5 2.1 11.8 0.00 3.6 11.1 10.2% 3.1%
B.Tuten JAX TEN 4500 0.3% 5.8 11 6.1 23.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.1 5.5 0.09 −0.6 7.0 4.6% −0.3%
C.Hubbard CAR LA 4400 0.2% 8.9 10 9.4 35.0 0.1 0.0 2.1 3.0 15.3 0.20 −1.8 19.9 9.7% −0.9%
B.Robinson SF CLE 4300 0.0% 4.6 11 5.8 27.5 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.7 0.00 0.4 2.1 4.9% 0.3%
O.Gordon MIA NO 4300 0.2% 3.9 11 4.5 14.9 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.7 2.7 0.09 −1.5 4.2 3.8% −1.1%
M.Carter ARI TB 4200 0.9% 7.1 7 6.4 19.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 3.1 18.4 0.00 8.0 17.0 10.7% 3.7%
L.Allen JAX TEN 4100 0.0% 1.8 10 1.4 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 4.1 0.00 −0.6 3.9 3.3% −0.3%
R.Mostert LV LAC 4000 0.0% 3.1 8 2.5 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 7.9 0.00 −1.8 9.6 5.0% −1.5%
A.Abdullah IND HOU 4000 0.0% 2.6 7 1.1 5.7 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.9 4.3 0.00 1.1 3.6 3.1% 0.5%
D.Ogunbowale HOU IND 4000 0.0% 1.7 5 0.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 7.2 0.00 1.4 6.6 3.2% 0.4%
A.Beck NYJ ATL 4000 0.0% 3.1 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 6.5 0.25 3.0 3.8 4.3% 1.4%
T.Williams LAC LV 4000 0.0% 0.9 1 3.0 −1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 −1.0 1.0 4.2% −0.5%
C.Akers SEA MIN 4000 0.0% 3.6 2 2.5 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.00 −3.0 0.0 4.2% −3.2%
T.Goodson IND HOU 4000 0.0% 0.8 5 1.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.6 0.00 −0.6 2.0 3.8% −0.4%
J.Ford CLE SF 4000 0.0% 3.3 11 2.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.4 6.9 0.00 −3.4 9.9 8.2% −1.8%
J.Chestnut TEN JAX 4000 0.0% 0.6 6 1.7 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.00 3.7 0.0 3.3% 3.6%
Z.Scott MIN SEA 4000 0.0% 5.6 5 4.2 13.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.4 14.6 0.20 6.0 13.4 8.8% 4.7%
D.Laube LV LAC 4000 0.0% 1.8 3 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.3 6.0 0.00 −2.0 8.0 4.6% −1.7%
B.Brooks HOU IND 4000 0.0% 0.8 2 2.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

J.Wright MIA NO 4000 0.0% 2.0 3 5.0 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.00 −1.0 1.0 3.7% −3.0%
R.Davis BUF PIT 4000 0.0% 2.5 9 2.7 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 2.0 0.11 0.4 3.1 4.4% 0.3%
A.Johnson LAC LV 4000 0.0% 0.8 1 2.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 −2.0 0.0 4.2% −1.0%
K.Johnson PIT BUF 4000 0.0% 1.1 7 3.1 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.00 −1.1 2.0 3.5% −4.5%
N.Carter ATL NYJ 4000 0.0% 2.0 2 4.5 30.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

T.Etienne CAR LA 4000 0.0% 1.8 7 2.9 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.00 0.1 1.1 2.5% 0.2%
K.Mullings TEN JAX 4000 0.0%













R.Ouzts SEA MIN 4000 0.0%













 Top Plays:

Christian McCaffery ($9300)- Amongst the elite RBs, I would lean CMC this week. While I don’t think his ypc or any sort of efficiency metric will be good his volume looks to be thru the roof. Against an elite Browns defense and in really windy conditions, I expect CMC to be peppered with a ton of swing passes and dumpoffs. It wouldn’t stun me to see 10+ targets and 25 rush attempts. Achane obviously has a nice matchup as well but he is going to be far and away the most owned RB so if you can diversify elsewhere he is worth a look.

 

James Cook ($7600)- After facing two of the better run defenses in the NFL in Tampa and Houston, Cook gets a reprieve vs a below average Steelers run defense. I know PIT does not allow a lot of RB targets (2nd lowest) but that’s more a function of facing opposing offenses that rarely throw to RBs. With a beat up OL, missing both Tackles, the Bills are not going to drop Allen back 40 times in this game.

 

Quinshon Judkins ($6200)- I am surprised that Judkins does not show higher projected ownership but in a game with 30+mph winds and against a bad Niners defense, I see no reason to avoid a guy who will see 25+ touches no matter what. SF is a below average run defense and are coming off a short week and travelling across the country. There is a better shot that they may wear down in this game.

 

Best Values:

Devin Neal ($5000)- Neal gets the start for Alvin Kamara who is out this week. He is not a speed burner but can get those tough yards. The Dolphins run defense has improved but on an offense that does not have significant talent, Neal should see 20+ touches.

 

Asthon Jeanty ($6400)- Jeanty will get a ton of touches and assuming new OC Greg Olsen will want the ball in his hands. In fact, he has a quote to reporters that Jeanty could be used even more as a receiver. Chargers rank 7th worst in adjusted ypc allowed to RBs and before the bye were gashed by both RBs on the Jags.

 

Kimani Vidal ($5700)– With Hampton announced as out for this game and as heavy 9.5 point favorites, Vidal leaps off the page as a great value at this price. In two recent big wins, Vidal saw 24 and 26 touches in those games.

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
J.Smith-Njigba SEA MIN 9500 20.9% 23.2 11 7.3 9.7 119.4 0.64 122.4 30.2 37.4% 51.0% 0.5 3.4 0.0
P.Nacua LA CAR 9000 17.6% 21.0 10 8.0 9.8 94.7 0.40 88.9 35.5 29.6% 32.1% 0.6 7.3 0.1
D.Adams LA CAR 7500 8.0% 16.6 11 4.4 8.5 57.4 1.09 106.9 8.3 25.8% 37.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Jefferson MIN SEA 7100 6.8% 13.8 11 5.5 9.0 72.3 0.18 102.8 29.2 30.5% 40.8% 0.1 0.4 0.0
J.Waddle MIA NO 6800 19.8% 13.8 11 4.5 6.6 65.6 0.45 87.5 15.5 22.8% 43.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.Collins HOU IND 6700 16.8% 14.6 10 5.2 8.5 69.7 0.40 97.5 17.1 24.9% 34.9% 0.1 0.8 0.0
E.Egbuka TB ARI 6500 13.1% 14.7 11 4.4 8.5 68.1 0.55 101.5 24.7 25.5% 38.1% 0.2 0.8 0.0
C.Olave NO MIA 6400 14.7% 14.9 11 6.3 9.8 66.7 0.36 105.5 16.4 29.0% 38.2% 0.1 −0.3 0.0
L.McConkey LAC LV 6300 10.6% 12.9 11 4.9 7.6 58.5 0.36 67.8 24.5 22.3% 26.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Thomas JAX TEN 6200 4.0% 10.7 8 3.8 7.5 52.5 0.12 96.4 14.0 21.1% 32.2% 0.2 2.0 0.1
T.McMillan CAR LA 6100 14.9% 13.7 12 4.7 8.0 65.2 0.42 88.6 17.9 26.8% 44.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Harrison ARI TB 6000 5.0% 12.5 9 3.8 6.9 58.3 0.44 85.9 12.0 20.4% 36.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Wilson ARI TB 5900 5.5% 9.7 11 4.3 6.5 48.5 0.09 69.7 12.6 17.5% 27.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Pittman IND HOU 5800 9.5% 14.9 11 5.4 7.1 55.2 0.64 56.6 17.7 22.6% 22.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Meyers JAX TEN 5700 2.5% 10.2 10 4.5 6.4 50.7 0.10 59.2 19.3 21.7% 28.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Metcalf PIT BUF 5600 10.8% 12.4 11 3.8 6.4 52.1 0.45 65.1 29.2 21.8% 37.6% 0.2 1.1 0.1
K.Shakir BUF PIT 5500 10.8% 11.5 11 4.9 6.5 51.3 0.27 25.6 41.7 21.9% 11.4% 0.1 0.5 0.0
P.Washington JAX TEN 5400 2.4% 10.8 10 3.5 6.0 42.1 0.30 69.1 11.6 18.1% 24.9% 0.6 0.5 0.0
D.Mooney ATL NYJ 5300 4.9% 6.1 9 2.1 5.0 33.1 0.11 77.7 3.6 17.2% 29.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
R.Pearsall SF CLE 5200 0.3% 9.3 6 3.8 5.8 55.5 0.00 88.7 5.0 17.2% 36.1% 0.3 −0.3 0.0
J.Addison MIN SEA 5100 1.6% 11.1 8 3.5 6.6 51.5 0.38 92.8 12.6 20.4% 33.5% 0.1 2.0 0.0
K.Allen LAC LV 5000 8.4% 12.7 11 5.1 7.8 53.8 0.36 67.1 15.9 22.8% 25.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Godwin TB ARI 5000 1.0% 4.7 3 2.7 6.0 20.3 0.00 66.0 7.3 17.6% 26.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q.Johnston LAC LV 4900 9.8% 13.5 9 4.1 7.2 55.8 0.67 75.2 21.0 20.6% 28.0% 0.2 0.8 0.0
A.Pierce IND HOU 4800 11.9% 10.7 9 3.2 6.0 67.9 0.11 120.0 8.8 19.1% 47.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Tucker LV LAC 4800 6.1% 11.6 11 3.7 5.8 48.2 0.45 59.6 20.9 18.7% 30.1% 0.5 3.3 0.0
J.Jennings SF CLE 4700 5.3% 10.3 10 3.7 6.3 41.9 0.40 64.5 13.2 19.7% 26.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
G.Dortch ARI TB 4600 0.2% 6.5 11 2.5 2.8 17.5 0.27 5.5 16.1 9.3% 2.7% 0.6 1.4 0.1
R.Shaheed SEA MIN 4500 0.7% 9.4 12 3.9 6.2 44.1 0.17 71.8 12.5 19.4% 27.1% 0.5 2.7 0.0
C.Dike TEN JAX 4400 6.3% 7.2 11 2.5 3.9 22.9 0.18 31.0 13.5 13.2% 13.4% 0.7 1.5 0.0
M.Washington MIA NO 4300 3.9% 7.3 11 3.0 4.3 21.3 0.18 19.7 16.7 14.7% 9.8% 1.2 7.1 0.0
J.Downs IND HOU 4200 3.6% 8.9 10 3.8 5.4 32.6 0.30 36.3 8.9 17.3% 14.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Johnson TB ARI 4200 3.0% 8.3 10 2.3 3.7 28.2 0.50 44.2 9.5 11.3% 19.1% 0.6 1.7 0.0
S.Shepard TB ARI 4100 0.2% 7.2 11 3.4 4.5 32.8 0.09 36.3 13.5 13.7% 13.6% 0.4 1.7 0.0
J.Jeudy CLE SF 4100 1.0% 6.9 11 2.9 6.9 35.9 0.09 82.5 9.8 21.2% 37.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Kupp SEA MIN 4000 4.2% 7.6 10 3.1 4.6 41.4 0.10 36.2 20.0 17.6% 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
X.Legette CAR LA 3900 1.3% 7.4 10 2.7 5.1 28.6 0.30 49.1 6.2 16.9% 23.5% 0.1 0.0 0.0
J.Higgins HOU IND 3900 9.4% 7.3 11 2.5 4.1 26.7 0.36 50.7 4.6 11.8% 17.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Lockett LV LAC 3800 1.4% 3.9 11 2.0 3.3 19.0 0.00 26.0 6.4 10.0% 11.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Bourne SF CLE 3800 0.0% 8.8 9 3.4 4.7 53.6 0.00 50.8 16.6 13.3% 19.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Metchie NYJ ATL 3800 9.8% 6.4 6 2.3 2.5 21.8 0.33 12.2 11.0 10.8% 6.7% 0.2 −1.2 0.0
C.Austin PIT BUF 3700 2.3% 7.3 9 2.9 4.7 30.9 0.22 47.2 12.0 16.2% 29.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
E.Ayomanor TEN JAX 3700 1.7% 7.3 10 2.8 5.9 33.4 0.20 76.0 8.3 19.0% 29.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Palmer BUF PIT 3600 1.2% 5.6 8 2.2 3.6 34.0 0.00 47.0 5.6 12.2% 19.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Tillman CLE SF 3600 0.3% 6.6 7 2.4 4.4 24.9 0.29 47.7 4.4 13.8% 20.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Mitchell NYJ ATL 3600 11.2% 3.2 10 1.2 2.9 20.4 0.00 54.4 6.5 9.3% 19.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Sills ATL NYJ 3500 0.5% 2.8 6 1.0 2.0 8.3 0.17 23.7 1.5 6.7% 8.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Vele NO MIA 3500 2.1% 4.0 6 1.5 3.3 15.2 0.17 37.3 2.3 8.9% 12.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Coleman BUF PIT 3500 4.1% 9.0 9 3.6 5.4 36.7 0.33 64.0 6.6 18.7% 28.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Cooks BUF PIT 3400 0.0% 3.9 9 2.1 2.8 18.3 0.00 25.7 4.1 8.3% 9.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Kirk HOU IND 3400 1.3% 6.7 7 3.0 5.3 28.3 0.14 38.3 13.0 15.0% 13.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
V.Jefferson TEN JAX 3400 2.0% 4.9 9 2.0 3.8 22.2 0.11 42.2 6.4 11.9% 18.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Coker CAR LA 3400 1.9% 5.2 6 2.3 3.2 25.0 0.00 25.7 7.7 11.4% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
G.Davis BUF PIT 3300 0.8% 5.1 2 2.0 3.0 31.0 0.00 35.0 8.5 9.7% 13.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Atwell LA CAR 3300 0.0% 5.3 5 0.8 1.8 32.8 0.20 35.4 12.2 5.0% 11.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Nailor MIN SEA 3200 0.3% 6.1 11 1.8 3.5 28.9 0.18 44.3 7.5 11.7% 17.6% 0.1 1.4 0.0
T.Shavers BUF PIT 3200 0.3% 4.9 7 1.6 2.4 24.6 0.14 31.0 7.9 8.4% 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Harris LAC LV 3100 0.1% 3.6 10 1.6 2.0 13.7 0.10 12.8 7.0 5.8% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Thielen MIN SEA 3000 0.0% 1.9 9 0.9 2.0 7.7 0.00 16.1 1.1 6.7% 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Robinson SF CLE 3000 0.0% 3.5 9 1.4 2.7 18.1 0.00 38.7 2.6 8.1% 15.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Patrick JAX TEN 3000 0.0% 3.4 8 0.9 1.8 10.4 0.25 19.2 4.2 5.1% 6.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Lazard NYJ ATL 3000 0.0% 3.2 6 1.3 2.3 9.0 0.17 18.5 5.5 7.2% 7.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Hodge ATL NYJ 3000 0.0% 2.0 3 1.0 3.3 10.3 0.00 50.0 3.0 9.9% 18.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Pettis NO MIA 3000 0.0% 2.4 1 1.0 1.0 14.0 0.00 14.0 0.0 2.3% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
S.Miller PIT BUF 3000 0.0% 0.9 2 0.5 1.0 4.5 0.00 3.5 5.0 3.6% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Bachman LV LAC 3000 0.0% 0.9 2 0.5 1.0 4.5 0.00 5.5 1.0 2.9% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Baccellia ARI TB 3000 0.0% 1.5 1 1.0 1.0 5.0 0.00 5.0 0.0 1.8% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.White SEA MIN 3000 0.0% 13.0 1 1.0 2.0 60.0 1.00 25.0 42.0 8.3% 12.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Proche TEN JAX 3000 0.1% 7.2 1 3.0 3.0 42.0 0.00 40.0 2.0 7.9% 20.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Kinsey TEN JAX 3000 0.0% 2.4 1 1.0 3.0 14.0 0.00 59.0 2.0 8.3% 22.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.Westbrook-Ikhine MIA NO 3000 0.0% 2.5 8 1.4 2.4 11.1 0.00 13.1 3.5 8.2% 6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Eskridge MIA NO 3000 0.0% 2.0 5 0.8 1.4 12.4 0.00 19.6 1.8 4.4% 8.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Brown JAX TEN 3000 0.0% 5.5 9 2.1 4.0 24.3 0.11 56.7 3.4 12.0% 20.1% 0.6 2.9 0.0
A.Trammell JAX TEN 3000 0.0% 1.9 4 0.8 1.5 11.5 0.00 21.2 0.5 5.6% 9.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Skowronek PIT BUF 3000 0.0% 3.6 4 0.8 1.0 14.0 0.25 11.0 5.8 3.5% 7.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Austin NO MIA 3000 0.0% 0.0 1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 23.0 0.0 2.4% 6.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
S.Moore SF CLE 3000 0.0% 1.5 7 0.6 0.9 9.1 0.00 12.7 3.9 3.1% 6.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0
X.Smith LA CAR 3000 0.0% 3.1 5 1.4 2.0 17.0 0.00 30.4 5.6 6.5% 11.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Davis LAC LV 3000 0.0% 0.4 4 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.00 6.8 1.8 3.5% 7.8% 0.5 1.2 0.0
X.Hutchinson HOU IND 3000 0.0% 7.0 10 2.4 3.4 26.4 0.30 34.5 6.7 11.0% 14.0% 0.2 1.4 0.0
J.Bobo SEA MIN 3000 0.0% 2.0 2 1.0 1.0 10.0 0.00 7.0 3.0 3.8% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
R.Miller TB ARI 3000 0.0% 2.8 4 0.5 1.0 8.5 0.25 17.5 0.0 2.8% 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Tremayne CAR LA 3000 0.0% 4.2 6 2.0 2.5 22.2 0.00 21.3 7.7 7.5% 9.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Drummond ATL NYJ 3000 0.0% 4.8 1 3.0 3.0 18.0 0.00 14.0 4.0 15.0% 8.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Thrash CLE SF 3000 0.0% 2.6 8 1.2 1.9 13.4 0.00 12.8 4.9 5.3% 5.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
I.Williams NYJ ATL 3000 0.0% 5.9 3 1.7 3.0 12.3 0.00 7.7 10.7 13.4% 5.5% 0.7 9.7 0.0
X.Weaver ARI TB 3000 0.0% 1.8 3 1.0 2.3 8.0 0.00 42.0 1.7 4.9% 13.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Johnson TB ARI 3000 0.0% 4.4 4 1.0 1.5 16.0 0.25 18.0 5.0 5.2% 7.2% 0.5 3.2 0.0
M.Tipton NO MIA 3000 0.6% 2.1 3 1.0 2.0 7.3 0.00 27.0 0.0 4.8% 7.4% 0.3 3.7 0.0
R.Wilson PIT BUF 3000 0.1% 4.8 8 1.5 2.5 20.8 0.25 31.6 8.2 8.1% 18.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Whittington LA CAR 3000 0.4% 3.5 9 1.8 2.3 16.3 0.00 15.1 8.4 7.7% 6.0% 0.3 1.3 0.0
A.Gould IND HOU 3000 0.0% 1.3 1 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.00 3.0 0.0 3.1% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Washington MIA NO 3000 0.0% 0.1 1 1.0 2.0 11.0 0.00 56.0 6.0 5.4% 20.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Corley CLE SF 3000 0.0% 2.5 6 0.8 1.0 5.7 0.00 −1.8 6.5 6.5% −1.8% 0.8 11.3 0.0
J.Noel HOU IND 3000 0.2% 4.8 10 2.0 2.7 21.3 0.10 24.4 8.0 8.5% 9.3% 0.4 0.9 0.0
T.Felton MIN SEA 3000 0.0% 1.9 1 1.0 1.0 9.0 0.00 7.0 2.0 4.2% 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Horn CAR LA 3000 0.0% 3.2 6 1.2 1.8 12.8 0.00 13.8 7.8 7.4% 7.8% 1.2 7.3 0.0
G.Larvadain CLE SF 3000 0.0% 1.1 4 0.5 1.5 5.5 0.00 13.5 1.5 6.4% 9.5% 0.2 0.8 0.0
X.Restrepo TEN JAX 3000 0.6% 4.6 1 2.0 6.0 26.0 0.00 68.0 3.0 15.8% 35.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Thornton LV LAC 3000 0.0% 2.3 8 0.9 2.9 14.0 0.00 46.8 2.9 9.5% 21.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Smith NYJ ATL 3000 0.0% 1.5 8 0.8 1.2 5.9 0.00 18.5 2.5 5.6% 12.0% 0.4 1.4 0.0
K.Mumpfield LA CAR 3000 0.0% 3.4 4 1.0 1.8 9.2 0.25 15.8 2.8 5.5% 5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Bech LV LAC 3000 0.0% 2.5 7 1.1 1.7 13.1 0.00 12.0 5.4 6.0% 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
I.Bond CLE SF 3000 0.0% 3.6 9 1.4 3.7 20.1 0.00 50.6 5.0 10.7% 21.1% 0.2 1.9 0.0

Top Plays:

Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($9500)- Seven straight games where JSN has generated 20+ DFS games. He leads the NFL in both target share and air yard share. JSN is as consistent as it comes and if looking for a virtual 20+ point lock he is the guy.

 

Puka Nacua ($9000)- Obviously it’s a choice between JSN and Puka as the elite WR this week for me if you go that route. Carolina is a pass funnel on defense and are missing Horn and Moehrig as well as multiple LBs this week. The middle of the field was already a problem and without Horn I think Puka eats

 

Jaylen Waddle ($6800)- Waddle is the clear top dog for Miami with four straight 22%+ target share games. This is a low salary for a guy likely to get 8-10 targets.

 

Best Values:

Quenton Johnston ($4900)- Johnston is the cheapest of the three Chargers WRs and has the biggest upside with his deep field capabilities. Lets not forget his 13-186 output vs the Raiders in week 18 last year. The Raiders are bottom five in yards per target allowed to outside WRs and as we say with Isaiah Bond and Jerry Jeudy last week, he can easily hit a couple deep ones this week.

 

Adonai Mitchell ($3600)- I am ok if you wanted to click on John Metchie at $3800 instead too. Mitchell has much more upside and big play potential but with Tyrod under center, the Jets pass game has actual options this week. He leads everyone on the slate with empty air yards per target. He is getting a lot of volume and big play volume but still needs to connect more.

 

Darnell Mooney ($5300)- Mooney hit a big deep TD last week and will be the top target again without Drake London again this week.

 

Tre Tucker ($4800)- Tucker has seen 20%+ target share in back to back games and at $4800, he’s the 3rd cheapest WR (Mitchell and Jennings the others) with that distinction. As nearly 10 point underdogs, the Raiders will need to throw to stay around this game and Tucker has the upside.

Tight Ends

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
T.McBride ARI TB 7800 5.3% 18.3 11 7.3 9.9 72.5 0.64 66.5 30.9 26.8% 26.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Bowers LV LAC 5800 12.4% 14.5 8 5.6 8.0 63.8 0.38 55.9 29.5 24.0% 24.6% 0.2 0.2 0.0
G.Kittle SF CLE 5300 6.0% 13.7 7 4.7 5.7 47.0 0.71 35.7 18.1 19.2% 16.5% 0.1 −0.4 0.0
T.Warren IND HOU 5200 9.4% 13.3 11 5.0 6.7 60.2 0.27 35.0 37.5 21.4% 13.6% 0.4 0.5 0.1
O.Gadsden LAC LV 4300 19.4% 10.9 9 4.1 5.4 56.3 0.22 45.1 19.7 15.5% 17.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Johnson NO MIA 4200 5.2% 10.8 11 4.5 6.1 48.8 0.27 45.1 21.3 18.0% 16.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Otton TB ARI 4100 4.2% 8.1 10 4.1 6.0 40.2 0.00 31.7 21.6 17.9% 11.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Pitts ATL NYJ 4000 15.4% 9.2 11 4.5 6.1 41.7 0.09 45.5 16.6 20.0% 17.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Schultz HOU IND 3800 10.6% 9.8 11 4.7 6.5 45.2 0.09 45.5 20.9 18.9% 16.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Strange JAX TEN 3700 6.0% 9.1 6 4.2 4.8 49.5 0.00 32.3 22.5 15.0% 12.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Okonkwo TEN JAX 3600 0.3% 6.6 11 3.2 4.2 34.3 0.00 22.5 18.3 13.2% 9.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Hockenson MIN SEA 3500 0.7% 7.3 11 3.5 4.6 27.2 0.18 21.0 14.5 15.7% 8.3% 0.1 0.0 0.0
H.Fannin CLE SF 3400 6.2% 9.7 11 4.4 6.3 42.0 0.18 36.1 21.5 19.2% 16.3% 0.4 0.9 0.0
M.Taylor NYJ ATL 3300 4.0% 6.8 11 3.4 4.8 27.0 0.09 26.7 8.6 18.3% 14.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Barner SEA MIN 3200 7.7% 8.8 11 3.0 3.7 29.5 0.36 18.3 13.7 15.0% 8.0% 0.7 1.0 0.1
P.Freiermuth PIT BUF 3100 0.9% 8.0 10 2.6 3.2 29.8 0.40 18.0 15.1 10.7% 9.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Knox BUF PIT 3000 2.2% 4.2 10 1.6 2.5 19.5 0.10 20.0 7.7 8.4% 8.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Smith PIT BUF 2900 0.6% 5.6 11 2.6 3.7 16.7 0.18 16.1 13.3 12.8% 9.3% 0.3 1.5 0.0
D.Njoku CLE SF 2900 0.5% 8.5 9 3.3 5.0 32.0 0.33 27.8 17.6 13.9% 11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Parkinson LA CAR 2800 6.5% 6.4 8 2.4 2.6 20.5 0.38 6.8 14.6 7.7% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Washington PIT BUF 2700 0.7% 6.4 8 2.5 3.5 28.9 0.12 21.2 17.2 11.8% 11.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Conklin LAC LV 2600 0.0% 3.1 5 1.2 1.8 19.0 0.00 8.2 11.0 4.9% 3.3% 0.2 0.4 0.0
G.Helm TEN JAX 2600 3.8% 5.7 11 2.7 3.4 24.3 0.09 20.7 9.8 10.6% 8.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Alie-Cox IND HOU 2500 0.0% 1.6 7 0.7 1.3 8.4 0.00 6.3 6.6 3.9% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Mundt JAX TEN 2500 0.0% 1.9 9 0.9 1.9 10.6 0.00 8.2 7.3 5.9% 3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
I.Thomas LV LAC 2500 0.3% 3.8 5 2.0 2.0 17.8 0.00 7.0 10.8 5.6% 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Schultz HOU IND 2500 0.0% 9.8 11 4.7 6.5 45.2 0.09 45.5 20.9 18.9% 16.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
F.Moreau NO MIA 2500 0.0% 1.4 4 0.8 1.5 6.2 0.00 1.2 3.8 4.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Oliver MIN SEA 2500 0.1% 3.6 7 1.0 1.3 8.9 0.29 2.3 6.1 4.3% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Deguara ARI TB 2500 0.0% 1.6 1 1.0 1.0 6.0 0.00 5.0 1.0 2.2% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Woerner ATL NYJ 2500 0.1% 2.1 4 1.2 1.5 8.2 0.00 0.5 7.5 4.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q.Morris JAX TEN 2500 0.0% 2.1 1 1.0 3.0 11.0 0.00 23.0 0.0 13.6% 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Stoll NO MIA 2500 0.0% 2.7 5 0.8 1.4 7.0 0.20 7.4 2.0 3.7% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
F.Franks ATL NYJ 2500 0.0% 0.2 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.0

1.0 2.0 0.0
L.Farrell SF CLE 2500 0.0% 3.7 8 1.4 1.6 10.6 0.25 4.9 6.5 4.7% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
H.Long JAX TEN 2500 0.0% 4.6 7 1.7 2.4 12.1 0.29 9.4 4.4 7.0% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Tremble CAR LA 2500 0.0% 4.3 10 1.9 2.5 18.4 0.10 9.5 13.0 8.1% 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Tonges SF CLE 2500 0.0% 10.4 7 3.7 5.0 32.3 0.57 23.1 18.4 13.3% 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
G.Dulcich MIA NO 2500 6.0% 5.6 3 2.7 4.3 29.7 0.00 18.3 16.3 16.7% 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
A.Ogletree IND HOU 2500 0.0% 4.4 2 1.0 1.5 4.0 0.50 6.0 0.5 5.1% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Heyward PIT BUF 2500 0.0% 1.5 7 0.3 0.4 2.6 0.14 3.9 0.1 3.2% 4.0% 0.7 1.3 0.0
Z.Mitchell-Paden NO MIA 2500 0.0% 1.2 3 0.7 1.0 5.7 0.00 4.3 1.7 4.1% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Fisk LAC LV 2500 0.0% 1.0 4 0.5 1.0 4.8 0.00 5.5 5.2 2.8% 2.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Ruckert NYJ ATL 2500 0.1% 4.0 8 1.8 2.0 14.9 0.12 7.6 8.4 7.6% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Whiteheart CLE SF 2500 0.0% 0.8 3 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.00 9.7 0.3 2.9% 6.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Hill MIA NO 2500 0.0% 3.2 7 1.6 2.0 13.0 0.00 6.3 10.6 8.1% 4.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
E.Higgins ARI TB 2500 0.2% 3.4 9 1.8 2.2 18.0 0.00 7.6 13.3 6.2% 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
P.Durham TB ARI 2500 0.0% 0.0 2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 1.5 0.0 2.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Allen LA CAR 2500 0.4% 4.7 10 1.6 2.0 13.3 0.30 8.7 7.4 5.9% 3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Sanders CAR LA 2500 0.7% 4.7 9 2.8 3.3 19.6 0.00 17.2 9.0 10.8% 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Stover HOU IND 2500 0.0% 3.1 2 2.0 3.0 11.0 0.00 7.0 6.5 10.9% 3.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.Martin-Robinson TEN JAX 2500 0.0% 7.1 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.0 0.0 2.9% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
N.Kallerup SEA MIN 2500 0.0% 0.0 1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.00 8.0 0.0 8.3% 6.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
M.Evans CAR LA 2500 0.0% 3.9 9 1.2 1.7 13.1 0.22 8.6 6.7 5.3% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Hawes BUF PIT 2500 0.4% 4.5 8 1.2 1.6 17.4 0.25 15.6 7.1 5.5% 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Latu BUF PIT 2500 0.0% 1.4 1 1.0 1.0 4.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 3.3% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
C.Runyon LV LAC 2500 0.0% 1.3 1 1.0 1.0 3.0 0.00 −3.0 6.0 5.9% −5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Ferguson LA CAR 2500 0.0% 4.1 6 0.8 2.0 23.0 0.17 43.8 5.5 6.7% 15.0% 0.2 0.0 0.0
E.Arroyo SEA MIN 2500 0.0% 3.4 11 1.4 2.1 16.3 0.09 15.6 7.1 8.0% 6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

Cade Otton ($4100)- Otton has seen a nice consistent target share of late. He has seen 18%+ target share the last six games and faces an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in DK points vs expected vs TEs.

 

Juwan Johnson ($4200)- Johnson faces a Miami pass defense that has allowed the third highest rate of TEs to go over their season yardage average and have allowed the highest alternative upside (10%+) on yardage. Johnson has not seen an overwhelming number of targets with Shough but has been consistently in the upper teens.

 

Oronde Gadsden ($4,300 DK) – Gadsden has five+ targets in six straight games. With a bad OL he is a good safety valve/quick option for Herbert. 

 

Value Plays:

TJ Hockenson ($3500)– TJ has had a down year for sure but that could just be more of a function of how bad the QBs have been for the Vikings. We have no idea how good/bad Max Brosmer will be but I do know that a good TE is a young QBs best friend in a spot like this. And he faces a Seattle defense that does allow open spots, intentionally, to the TE position. SEA has allowed the 4th highest rate of TEs exceeding their seasonal yardage average. They allow the 3rd highest rate of receiving yards going to TEs. TJ’s ownership will be tremendously low.

 

Colby Parkinson ($2800)– He only ran 50% of routes last week but he is a reliable red zone target. He also has destroyed zone defenses and has a top 15 NFL EPA per target vs zone, that includes all WRs and TEs. Carolina runs zone at a top 5 rate. For this cheap of a price it won’t take that much to pay off vs a Carolina defense missing multiple starting LBs.