Brackets- 2025 - ClevAnalytics

2025 Bracket Selections

Your bracket composition depends on size of your pool. If your pool is on the smaller end (50 or less entries) then it should be a fairly chalky bracket with a few measure upsets. No need to take major chances. With larger pools, you should be taking more upsets but still no need to be reckless. Mimicking the general public with picks will likely not end up different enough to win a pool. At the same time, picking multiple outliers to reach the Final 4 is likely not to pay off.

Note: These are just baseline brackets if you want some sense as to the strategy of each. This is supposed to be a fun event and you should be able to pick whomever you want to root for. Feel free to start with these brackets and make changes as you see fit.

Small Pool Bracket

Summary:

As you can see this is a fairly chalky bracket for those participating in small pools. Remember, most others will be trying to pick a bunch of upsets bc that is what everyone is rooting for. However, you should not feel the need to make crazy picks, just a handful of measured upsets at key spots should set you up to have a chance to win at the end.
I never like to have four Final 4 teams but I have strong convictions that Florida and Duke are the two best teams while Auburn and Houston are the more vulnerable #1 seeds. However, those regions don’t offer teams in that #2-4 seeds that I normally would like to pull upsets into the Final 4.
I have Florida over Duke in the title game but any mix of the four in the Championship is likely fine.
I do have a couple of 2nd round upsets with St. Mary’s over Bama and Kansas over St. John’s. I also have only one #2 seed in the Elite 8 so it is not complete chalk either.
I also have five double digit upsets in round one where there is too wide of a disconnect between actual win probabilities and public pick percentages. So again ultimately chalky but with measured upsets.

Large Pool Bracket

Summary:

This bracket is for larger pools although if we are talking in the hundreds of entries vs ~100, you likely will need to get a little more risky in some spots.
I decided to get UNC into the Elite 8 as an 11 seed. If you are in pools that reward wins based on seeds then taking UNC far is a very strong option. They are favored over Ole Miss and Iowa St is dealing with major injury concerns that gives the Tar Heels an advantage inside if they meet. Also MSU and Marquette are rather weak potential opponents in the Sweet 16 and very beatable.
Generally, however, there are some high leverage spots that I had to pull the trigger on that were rather uncomfortable. I love this Florida team but so does everyone else and so finding another suitable Final 4 group from that West region was necessary and I certainly did not want four #1 seeds. Maryland over Florida was another option but instead went with Texas Tech who fits one of my seven teams to win the title based on historical filters. They have a star player in 6’9 JT Toppin who can carry a team like this into the Championship game.
I also needed to find another high leverage point and decided to pull take Gonzaga to upset Houston in the 2nd round. The Zags rank #8 overall in Kenpom ratings and have the HC to pull it off with Mark Few. But I also wanted to protect myself in case I was wrong here and stuck a very good Tennessee team into the Final 4 from that region.