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2024 BROWNS Projected Draft Board

Browns fans will have to wait until pick #54 for the team to make a selection. But it’s still a draft and we love it. With that in mind, another look as what types of traits/profiles Andrew Berry and Paul Depodesta typically target in the draft and who might be on their board. Lets be clear here, I am not a scout and this is not an exercise in actual draft player analysis. I am just using as much data that I have available to me and some historical context to try and best determine the players who COULD be on the Browns radar. Check out last year’s analysis.

 

 

 

Andrew Berry’s Full Drafts as Browns GM

 

Rounds 1 and 2 Traits

We are only looking at a sample of just four draft picks under Andrew Berry inside the first two rounds, thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade. Last year, the Browns traded back from pick #74 into the 3rd round and with the Browns looking at only five total picks this season, I think its a virtual coin flip that the Browns will actually stay at #54 this year as well. But with that being said, it’s a good idea for now to assume they will make a pick in round two and examine what characteristics each of the four top two round picks have shared to see if we can narrow down the potential draft list.

Among the four draft picks, all of them were drafted at age 21.6 or younger. They were all also good athletes with Relative Athletic Scores of at least 8.4. To be fair, the last couple of drafts have been an older bunch in general seeing as how the Covid pandemic kept players in college a bit longer than in the past. This year is no different. We have also seen less and less players workout at the combine or at a pro day, leading to many missing RAS scores. With that being said, it’s really not a reach to assume that the most analytically focused FO in the NFL would likely continue to draft younger and athletic with a top 55 pick. In terms of premium/non-premium positions, the Browns have mixed it up a bit and have taken a Safety (Delpit) and traded up for JOK, a LB, in round two. But lets put the JOK trade up and drafting into context for those who think that means Berry would be very open to drafting an off ball LB inside the top 55. JOK was PFFs 19th overall rated player and to have him available at pick 52, offered tremendous value. Also, JOK wasn’t your prototypical off ball 240 pound LB or anything, he was a highly athletic hybrid LB type who was outstanding in coverage and generated PFFs 2nd best slot coverage grade of any player at any position in his final season at ND. This was a very unique outlier case for a team like the Browns to take someone at a traditionally non premium position that high in the draft. Sometimes it’s more about the usage and types of skills for the player being acquired than it is what the position label looks like. It’s no different than the Browns never drafting a pure run stuffing DT who doesn’t offer much in the way of pass rush ability inside the top two rounds. However, if a high pressure rate DT is available who is an attacking defender as a pass rusher, then the Browns will clearly be interested. Even though both types of players have the DT label, one offers much more in the way of premium skills.

For more on Berry’s draft traits check out my GM Trends page.

 

Rounds 3 and Beyond

This is where a team like the Browns try and identify as many inefficiencies in the draft market as possible. It’s going to be extremely rare where a prospect in this range of the draft is going to check all of the boxes you are looking for- young, great athlete, great production, no injury red flags, no character issues. So there are trade offs that a FO will make with some or many of these traits. Instead, the Browns may find a player they like who has fallen in the draft because of a poor combine or pro day which could be counter to GPS tracking data. Perfect examples of this are guys like S Richard LeCounte (0.65 RAS) and RB Demetric Felton (0.80 RAS) who had horrendous pre draft workouts for various reasons. However, both players were lauded after the fact for producing much faster “playing speeds”, had good production for Power 5 schools and were thought to be a potential inefficiency that Berry wanted to take advantage of late in a draft.

They will also take chances on a “poor” athlete like WR David Bell who dropped due to those bad workouts but was one of the most productive WRs in college. They will also take a chance on an immense talent like T Dawand Jones who dropped due to potential weight issues.

One common thread is that the Browns will still not draft the very old players, especially non QBs. Out of 31 draftees, Berry has drafted only two players- DTR (23.5) and Isaiah Thomas (23.4) over the age of 23 years old on draft day. Thomas is the only non QB and that was in round 7, where literally anything goes and was an elite athlete (9.14 RAS) at a premium position (EDGE). 

Trying to predict specifically who Berry and the Browns will target in these mid to late rounds gets very difficult but as I break down each target position group below, I will do my best to find common traits/characteristics to see if we can do just that.

Browns Day 2 Big Board 

Browns Day 3 Big Board 

Position Group Breakdown

Offensive Lineman:

Andrew Berry has drafted six offensive lineman in his Browns tenure with all but LT Jedrick Wills coming in rounds 4 and later. Five of the six OL- Wills, Nick Harris, James Hudson, Dawand Jones and Luke Wypler were 22 years of age or younger when drafted. 2022 7th round pick, C Dawson Deaton, was 23 years old. Surprisingly, elite athleticism does not appear to be a major gating item when it comes to these OL selected. Wypler generated an excellent 9.2 RAS while Wills posted solid metrics (8.4 RAS, 72% SPARQ), but Harris (6.8 RAS) and Hudson (3.8 RAS) were mediocre to below average athletes and Jones did not work out pre-draft. Deaton was an older prospect but an elite athlete, posting the 2nd best RAS of any C in the class (9.68). All six do share common statistical traits- allowing low pressure rates, 2.5% or less, as well as good (median or above) PFF pass block grades- (Wypler 84.0, Jones 78.3, Hudson 79.9, Harris 83.1, Wills 82.6). For reference, this year’s OL class has a median pass block grade of 78 and a pressure rate of 2.9%. Dawson was only graded at a 72 but in the 7th round it’s still solid and frankly anything in the 7th round should be looked at with a grain of salt.

The Browns OL has always been a strength but is starting to show some cracks/older age and could use some reinforcements. They are probably set at C with starter Ethan Pocic and 2nd year man Luke Wypler ready to step in for the future but the G position is getting a bit long in the tooth. Never know when a guy like G Joel Bitonio decides to hang them up getting closer to age 35 and Wyatt Teller is still solid but not as dominant as he was a few years ago. With no more guaranteed money owed to Teller after this season, a succession plan is definitely in sight. 2nd year man Dawand Jones was a diamond in the rough in last year’s draft and should be the starting RT with Jed Wills at LT. Both Wills and Jack Conklin could be gone in the next 1-2 years so finding young blood at T is needed. Conklin is returning from injury and his future is in question. I do think the Browns come away with at least one OL and potentially multiple depending on if Berry adds more draft picks. Seeing as how the Browns have hosted multiple OL as part of their pre draft visits, I think it’s safe to say they will look strongly at the OL.

Below is a group of OL that I considered as highest potential for Cleveland. For more detail on any of these players I would suggest referring to the great “Beast” draft guide from Dane Brugler of the Athletic.

I didn’t include any player expected to be drafted inside the top 40. Without being overly stringent, the likeliest OL that would be considered by the Browns between rounds 2-7, based on age, pressure rate and pass block grades would be:

The Browns have brought in Sumatala and Amegadjie for a pre draft visit and both are likely in play at either 54 or if they trade down (more for Amegadjie). Probably my favorite values come in the form of T Roger Rosengarten and G/C Tanor Bortolini. Both are in that 2nd to 5th round range. Rosengarten produced the best 40 time in the class and fits from an age, pressure rate and pass block grade perspective. He played RT at Washington but that was only after starting at LT and moving to protect lefty Michael Penix’ blind side. He did not allow a single sack in two years at RT. He is the prototype for what the Browns likely look for in the mid rounds at Tackle. Bortolini is a guy who played C at Wisconsin but has played all five positions. He broke the combine record for the three cone among NFL Centers and generated a ridiculous 9.77 RAS. 

Wide Receiver:

The Browns really don’t have a “type” when it comes to drafting WRs historically under Andrew Berry. They have drafted all different shapes and sizes with differing traits. You have the really young WR with either elite speed or elite athleticism in Anthony Schwartz (20 yo and 4.27 40) in round 3 and DPJ (21 yo and 9.63 RAS) in round 6. You also have the poor athletic metrics but elite level college production in a guy like David Bell in round 3. Michael Woods was drafted in round 6 as a 23.1 year old from Oklahoma and while he had a solid combine (7.6 RAS) and was decently productive in college, nothing really stood out about him. But that’s what you typically get from late round prospects. Cedric Tillman was the Browns 3rd round pick last year after a trade back from round 2. He had good athleticism (8.67 RAS) and decent production but was “old” by Browns standards at age 23.0 at the time of the draft. The Browns clearly wanted a bigger bodied outside WR and Tillman was the best of the remaining available. PFF had him as their #61 overall player so, coincidence or not, the Browns grabbed a player who was undervalued based on PFFs rankings. The Browns traded up a few spots for a ”non premium position” player in JOK at LB  a few years earlier when he dropped to the 50s. He was PFF’s #19 ranked player so it looks like the Browns are willing to bend on some of the traits they look for if the player is deemed too valuable for that draft position. Tillman didn’t necessarily show much last year as a rookie but this roster desperately needs an infusion of explosiveness and after the catch ability.

But as you can see they have essentially tried all different types of WRs and so far nothing has really panned out long term. To be fair, they’ve also refused to spend anything higher than a 3rd round pick on a WR which greatly reduces the odds of one really hitting. If they stick at #54, this may be their time to take another swing. There isn’t much in the way of trends or consistent traits that we can totally hang our hat on for trying to predict what Berry might go after at WR this year. I will say that all five of these WRs that were drafted did produce 10 yard splits that were under 1.60. And Schwartz, Tillman and DPJ ran 1.54 or lower, all in the top 35% of all WRs historically. But it’s nothing that I’d feel confident is a non-starter.

This makes trying to determine who the Browns could go after at WR somewhat of a challenge. I think it’s best to eliminate the clear outliers that historically would never really fit what Berry would target at the position. My first step is to eliminate all players age 23.5 or older. Berry has yet to ever draft a single player over 23.5 yo out of 31 draft picks and that one draftee was a QB (DTR).  However, they have yet to draft a non-7th round pick who was over the age of 23.0. I am being flexible when using 23.5 as a cutoff based on Berry’s history bc I don’t think being totally rigid is the best approach and the recent pandemic/NIL era has skewed some of the data. But I do believe in paying attention to one’s actions and Berry just refusing to budge on drafting the really older players is reality as much as some Browns fans/analysts don’t want to buy into it. I do believe teams are ok drafting players after the first 50 picks or so who may not fit every box they are looking for. However, if we start to see more than one outlier in a process then it’s fair to say the likelihood of drafting that player is miniscule. I kept those WRs who are between 23-23.5 if they also own elite level traits like 9+ RAS or elite college production.

The only guys I have considered for the Browns in round 2 are the 22 or younger with 8+ RAS athleticism scores. For the guys who are a bit older or slightly less athletic, I would consider them in round 3+. It’s exactly what they did with Tillman last year. They wouldn’t take him in round 2 but after a trade back they were more comfortable bending on age in the third round. It’s not likely to occur but a guy like Xavier Leggette who is 23.3 yo and essentially a one year wonder is likely to be a bit too much of a risk in round 2 for them but if somehow he were to drop to round 3 he could be under consideration. It will be controversial but I did not list Ricky Pearsall as a realistic option. Totally understanding his athleticism and good route running, the fact that it took so long for him to break out is a clear concern for a heavy analytics FO like the Browns. Now if he were to free fall then I could see him being under consideration but absent of that there is just zero evidence that the Browns would take a guy who will be 24 when they kickoff the season in September.

This WR class is extremely deep and although I think WR is definitely on the radar at #54, it wouldn’t stun me at all if they just waited again until round 3+ to grab another one this year. Worthy is likely not to be there at 54 and Coleman is a bit below the typical athleticism the Browns like in the top two rounds but both are included here anyway. It really comes down to Troy Franklin and Ja’Lynn Polk for me at 54 if they stick there and want to take a WR. Franklin is a deep threat but he’s rail thin and his 10 yard split at the combine (1.61) was atrocious. It likely was just a bad day but should be noted. He did come for a pre draft top 30 visit but that could also be a smokescreen. The bust rate for guys at his weight is long which is another ding against him but he is talented enough and would be enormous value vs the PFF big board that I think he would be at the top of their WR list at 54. Polk is maybe my top pick among the most realistic WRs available to them. He checks all the boxes and is a DOG. He has played both inside and outside so that versatility is something the Browns will really like. He is just a good football player who also fits the traits the Browns typically look for. Corley is often linked to the Browns at 54 but he just doesn’t fit their standard profile in the top two rounds. His 7.75 RAS is just ok and he is a tad over 22 yo. He is also not at a Power 5 school and the Browns have only drafted one such type of player (Alex Wright) out of 12 possible top 3 round selections under Berry. He is only a 3rd round consideration to me.

My favorite mid/late round options are Luke McCaffrey, Javon Baker, Brendan Rice and Jalen Coker. McCaffrey is the younger brother of Christian and he was a top recruit at QB for Nebraska. He transferred after that didn’t work out and has only played WR for two seasons at Rice. But he produced right away and caught 70 balls for 13 TDs this past season. His three cone and short shuttle numbers are elite elite. Both ranked top 3 among all players tested at the combine. He’s likely strictly a slot WR but his athleticism is appealing. You will notice he is 23.1 yo and while that normally is a major Andrew Berry red flag, he absolutely has the excuse of not even playing WR until 2022. A brand new position is why he is entering the draft so late. Baker is an excellent deep threat who has the highest yards per reception in this class. He isn’t a burner per se but he tracks the ball and attacks it so well down the field. He is an excellent outside WR in the mid rounds to consider. He was a Bama recruit so the pedigree is there for upside. Rice is the son of Jerry Rice and was a consistent player at USC. He won’t wow you with his speed but is polished, smart and has excellent size. Coker is not a guy most anyone will talk about considering he went to Holy Cross but he dominated the Ivy League. He is one of Steve Smith’s favorite WRs in this class and trust that his route running will translate to the next level. In the 5th-7th rounds he is a guy worth taking a shot on.

Tight End:

There isn’t a ton to go on for the TE position, seeing as Andrew Berry has only drafted one, Harrison Bryant, throughout his tenure as GM. Bryant was PFFs top graded TE, ran a 1.63 10-yard split (79th percentile of all TEs at the combine) and generated a good 19% missed tackle forced per reception in his final collegiate season. Kevin Cole has done a nice job detailing how the best predictor of success for TEs coming out of college is the 10-yard split and what happens after the catch. The best of the best in the NFL- Travis Kelce, George Kittle (18%), TJ Hockenson (16%), Sam Laporta (34%), David Njoku (35%), Mark Andrews (13%) were all yac monsters and produced high level 10-yard split numbers.

The Browns are set with David Njoku establishing himself as a top 5ish level TE last season. Harrison Bryant is gone to the Raiders and veteran Jordan Akins is 32 and didn’t show a ton last season. He is a FA next season anyway so the Browns absolutely do need to bring in some fresh blood at the position as the #2/#3.

Based on using the historical 50th percentile cut off criteria for the 10 yard splits (1.6) and missed tackles forced % (12%) for TEs, most of the group above fit the bill. Ja’Tavion Sanders scores a bit lower than you’d like to see for the supposed 2nd best TE in the class. On film, he shows great speed and looks like a big WR but his 4.69 40 was well below the group average and his 5.75 RAS is far and away the worst among the group above. He also generated a below 50th percentile MTF % of just 9%. I left him in because he just turned 21, was a former 5 star recruit and has the best production in the class behind Brock Bowers. I dont think he is a TE the Browns would consider at the point he would be expected to g (2nd-3rd) but if he drops into the 4th or 5th round, would then be a consideration. My two favorite options for the Browns in the first couple of rounds would be Ben Sinnott from KSU and Jaheim Bell of FSU. Sinnott is one of my favorite players in this draft and an absolute bullseye for the Browns at pick 85. Talk about checking every single box. He’s 21 years old, posted an impressive 9.73 RAS score, ran a good 1.59 10-yard split and forced a missed tackle on nearly 30% of his receptions. Bell came out of nowhere for me when reviewing these TE options. He’s not the youngest guy (22.9 yo) but still is below the 23 yo cutoff. His 8.45 RAS was excellent as is his 1.58 10-yard split. But what really popped is his incredible 31% MTF rate. Its not fluke either considering he forced a missed tackle on 46% of receptions in 2022 and 43% in 2021. He is an absolute yac destroyer and watching him on film, his athleticism and post catch attributes pop off the screen. He’s a bit shorter than you’d like to see (6’2) but as a “weapon” and #2 TE, he is a guy I think teams could use on 3rd downs especially. If the Browns don’t grab Sinnott in the first three rounds, Bell is someone who I am personally going to bang the table on in rounds 4 and later.

I excluded Cade Stover considering he’s going to be 24 during training camp. He essentially fits all other criteria so if he does see a big drop later in the draft, he could potentially get on the Browns radar. Some of the better TE prospects historically have been older than 23 yo but for this exercise I am tried to stick to the exercise.

Defensive Tackle:

Andrew Berry has drafted four Defensive Tackles in his Browns tenure- Jordan Elliot in 2020 (3rd round), Tommy Togiai in 2021 (4th round), Perrion Winfrey in 2022 (4th round) and Siaki Ika in 2023 (3rd round). Togiai and Winfrey were under 22 while Elliot and Ika were 22.4 and 22.5 years old at the time of their drafts. These were not amazing athletes either. The RAS for Elliot was decent at 7.4 and Togiai came in strong at 8.6 but Winfrey did not post a RAS and Ika was a really poor 2.74. The commonality was that all three guys posted average/above average pressure rates (>8%) and very good PFF pass rush grades (Elliot- 91, Togiai- 77, Ika- 76.4 and Winfrey- 79.3). Ika generated the worst of the pressure rate and pass rush grades coming into the draft and was frankly a surprise selection to me. Berry seemingly went off the board with that pick seeing as how all of his metrics (pass rush, RAS, age) lagged other DT selections in the past. And so far it does not seem to be a good selection as he graded out as one of the worst defensive players in the NFL last season. He had one tackle and generated one pressure on 103 snaps last season.

The Browns really fortified their DL last year and signed veteran Quinton Jefferson to continue their depth at DT this offseason. They added Jefferson to the returning quad DTs of Dalvin Tomlinson, Shelby Harris, Maurice Hurst and Ika. This is a very old group of DTs with Tomlinson, Harris and Jefferson 32 yo or older and Hurst at 28 yo. They can certainly use a younger player at the position and would likely lean to a pass rushing DT over a run stuffer. With the way DTs have been getting paid of late, you can’t have too many of them.

This is not the best group of DT overall. But Michael Hall is my best player available for when the Browns pick at 54 and is my personal favorite option among all available players. He is not even 21 years old yet, posted tremendous workout metrics (9.57 RAS). His 4.76 40 yard time and 33 inch vertical jump were eye opening results. It’s not only the workout metrics, he produced the 2nd best pressure rate in this class and 4th best PFF pass rush grade. His time to pressure is far and away the best in this class as well. He is the ideal fit for the Browns at 54. Leonard Taylor is my favorite 5th round option. The former 5 star recruit has the physical tools and is one of six DTs in this class to meet both the minimum pass rush grade and pressure rate. His pressure numbers have not translated into many sacks in his career (6) but that just offers an opportunity to grab him at a lower price.

EDGE Rusher:

Andrew Berry and Paul Depodesta continually look for younger Edge rushers in the draft who produce 10-yard splits in the top 50th percentile of pass rushers. Maybe it’s all just coincidence as well but maybe something worth examining. Outside of 30+ yo Z’Darius Smith, every single Edge rusher drafted or acquired by Berry and/or Depodesta, have run better or equal to the 1.64 50th percentile measure in the 10-yard. Clowney (1.59), Winovich (1.57), Mckinley (1.60), Garrett (1.57), Nassib (1.62), Ogbah (1.56), Thomas (1.61), Clayborn (1.61), Mcguire (1.59), Okoronkwo (1.60) and Shareef Miller (1.64) at Philly with Berry all ran inside the top 50th percentile. It makes sense that the quick get off for an Edge rusher is something that would be coveted. The Browns also have only drafted Edge rushers with good PFF pass rush grades. Under Berry and Depodesta, Isaiah Thomas (77.4), Wright (91.1), McGuire (83.0) all generated really good pass rush grades in their final season. And these are 3rd, 4th and 7th round picks.

The Browns are currently in good shape at Edge rusher with Myles Garrett, Z’darius Smith, Ogbo Okoronkwo and Alex Wright leading the top four on the depth chart. McGuire only played 93 snaps last season but did pick up two sacks in the regular season finale vs Cincinnati. He too will look to step up in a rotational role. That doesn’t leave much room for a rookie but if an Edge is the best player available when the Browns pick, they wouldn’t hesitate to add to maybe the most impactful position in football outside of QB.

This Edge class isn’t all that great but there are a few solid options in the mid to late rounds. All of the earlier round options fit the bill of being under 23 yo, ran a sub 1.65 10-yard split, have produced good to excellent pressure rates and above average PFF pass rush grades. The Murphy brothers are eerily similar and bring excellent metrics. The only issue is they are on the older end of the spectrum but in the 6th or 7th round, could be worth considering.

Safety:

There’s not a ton to go off of for historical Safeties drafted by Andrew Berry considering he’s only drafted two of them- Grant Delpit in 2020 in the 2nd round and Richard LeCounte in 2021 in round 5. LeCounte was a 5 star recruit at Georgia and had a nice career with the Bulldogs but after a motorcycle accident, posted awful workouts before the draft. He plummeted and the Browns took a shot on his talent in the 5th round. That was also a case of banking on much faster playing times as measured by GPS trackers. Delpit was a 2nd round pick and came in young and highly athletic. He also was a Thorpe award winner so he was ultra productive at LSU. Both guys showed that they could cover (Delpit 84.1 PFF coverage grade as a Sophmore, LeCounte (80s coverage grade as a Sophomore and Junior, 76 as a Senior) and both played at least 20% of their coverage snaps in the slot. The Browns very likely want that versatility in coverage from their Safeties if they draft one.

The Browns are in pretty good shape at Safety with Delpit, Thornhill and Hickman signed thru 2025. Thornhill was just ok in 2023 (66.5 PFF grade, 62 coverage grade) and does not have guaranteed money owed to him after this season so certainly a replacement is possible. Hickman shined as a UFA from OSU and could also be a nice part of the rotation going forward. 

I am not positive the Browns will dip their toes in the Safety waters considering their current roster and the fact that Safety is becoming one of the least valuable positions when it comes to surplus value. You can find plenty of good starter options in FA for an affordable price that it makes drafting one high not ideal at all. At the same time, finding those players who are young (<22 yo) and athletic (8.0+ RAS) has been very predictive in the draft. 37% of the Safeties drafted with that profile alone in the top three rounds since 2000, have made at least one Pro Bowl.

Jaden Hicks stands out as the most like a Safety that the Browns would look to in rounds 2-3 (likelier round 3). Out of Wazzu, he’s still just 21 yo, generated an 83 coverage grade and has ideal size at 6’2, 211. He’s more of a box Safety but did play over 100 snaps in the slot and covered well. Javon Bullard is the 2nd best coverage Safety in this class but is one of the smaller ones too. If the Browns go down this route he’d be more of a 3rd round pick or even a 4th if they trade back. Malik Mustapha from Wake Forest isn’t the best coverage Safety but he is an elite athlete (9.4 RAS), is young and an absolute missile as a Strong Safety. He is a guy who could get over drafted by a team that wants that old school Safety but if he drops into the 5th-6th round could be the best player available for the Browns.

Linebacker:

The Browns have drafted three LBs in the three Berry drafts- JOK in the 2nd round and Tony Fields in the 5th round of the 2021 draft and Jacob Phillips in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft. The only commonalities is all three players were under the age of 22. While Fields RAS was a poor 4.9, Fields and Phillips posted a really good 40 yard dash (4.66 and 4.64) and 10 yard times (1.55 and 1.63). JOK didn’t run but he was flying at his pro day and it’s safe to assume he would’ve posted good speed metrics as well. Phillips and Fields were excellent tacklers while JOK was an elite coverage LB. It’s typically not a position the Browns will spend a high pick on as LB is pretty easy to find in other places (via trade or FA). Some will point to the trade up and selection of JOK in 2021, however, JOK was a unique LB and was an outlier in terms of athleticism and coverage ability. He also was PFFs 19th rated prospect and dropped into the 50s because of a heart issue. That was a fairly rare situation that the Browns pounced on.

The Browns do have a need here at LB. JOK is an unrestricted free agent after this season, although you would assume the Browns will extend him at some point. FA Jordan Hicks was a nice addition in the spring but he has not guarantees after this season. Devin Bush is not very good but he too was brought in for depth. The Browns have really been operating on a year to year basis at many of the LB spots. If the Browns had more picks, I think LB would clearly be a position they will pick in the mid rounds but with limited picks and no major immediate need, I am not sure they will use their limited draft capital on one.

The way I narrowed down these LB options is filtering for age and would have to excel either in tackling or coverage grade. This LB class is pretty weak with Payton Wilson (#30 on PFF big board) as the top player. Unfortunately, he is 24 years old and extensive injury history is going to likely preclude him from being on the Browns board in round 2. He’s a good player and if he somehow saw a JOK like drop into round 3 could be an option. Edgerrin Cooper is the best of the remaining bunch and along with Junior Colson are round 3 options. I just can’t see the Browns using a round 2 pick on an off ball LB with limited draft capital. Both are excellent players and Colson’s elite tackling and good coverage numbers place him highly. One late (6th-7th round) option who is interesting is James Williams of Miami FL. He is a former 5 star recruit and #1 Safety in his class. He played Safety at Miami but his size (6’4, 231) makes him an interesting LB/S hybrid prospect. He could be a fun TE matchup player on obvious passing downs.

Cornerback:

The Browns have drafted three CBs- Greg Newsome, Martin Emerson and Cameron Mitchell, in the Andrew Berry era and all three look to be excellent selections based on where they were selected. Newsome was only 21 years old while Emerson was 21.6 and Mitchell 21.7 when drafted. All three posted good workout numbers (9.7, 8.5 and 8.9 RAS) as well. Mitchell at 5’11 is the shortest of the trio (6’1 and 6’2). All three also generated really good 10-yard splits with Mitchell’s 1.52 being the slowest of the three. 1.52 was still in the top 35% of all CBs tested historically.

Not the deepest CB class that you will find and with the Browns deepest position on the roster being at CB, it’s not an area I suspect the Browns will attack in the first three rounds. It’s still a premium position and who knows if the Browns will trade or let Greg Newsome walk. Last year’s 5th round pick, Cameron Mitchell, played relatively well for a late round rookie and could step into that role if Newsome is not on the roster. 

I tried to filter the group of CBs to those outside of the top 50-60 as I don’t think they will attack this position early. I looked for guys with relatively good coverage grades, excellent workout metrics and showed a good first step with above average 10-yard splits. I was surprised to see so many highly graded coverage CBs who aren’t expected to be drafted inside the top 100.  None of these guys stand out as must haves for me but the Browns can certainly find a late round rotation CB among the group. 

Running Back:

Running backs are an interesting evaluation because unlike some other position groups, the best pure athlete at the position is not really correlated at all with success in the NFL. In fact, historically the track level speed guys are not the ones that have done well. There are likely other measures that the Browns will evaluate if they do decide to take an RB this draft. I am squarely in the camp that as constructed the RB room is fine as is. Jerome Ford and FA pickup D’onta Foreman handle the 1st and 2nd down duties with Ny’heim Hines as the lead 3rd down RB. Ford is not going to wow you from a down to down success standpoint but he has proven that he can be a home run hitter. 32% of his yardage came on “breakaway” runs of 15+ yards, which ranks 7th highest in the NFL. He had eight such runs. Foreman has long been a favorite of mine and vastly underrated. Foreman is top 35 in PFF run grades the last two seasons and is excellent in creating his own yards. Then we have the upside of whatever Nick Chubb can bring to the table this season. The Browns offense elevated under Joe Flacco and made the Playoffs after Chubb went down last season. It had nothing to do with the running game and all to do with the passing game. Which has long been the point, that RB is just not that pivotal in the grand scheme of things and they are highly replaceable.

Berry has only drafted two RBs in his Browns tenure and one of them, Demetric Felton, was more of a gadget guy. Ford was a 5th round pick last year and he was not some elite athlete (6.8 RAS) but he did have good speed (4.46 40) and was graded well by PFF (84.6). But I would be surprised if pure speed was something that the Browns really cared a lot about. They likely just want a minimum level of speed (4.55 or less). He met the median level of explosive run rate (10+ yard runs) and did produce a good 27% missed tackle rate. What I know of the Browns is they will likely want some minimum level of explosive play ability and the ability to create your own yards if a play is not perfectly blocked. Studies have shown that explosiveness is one of the traits in college that has been strongly correlated to success in the NFL for an RB. They are also likely to not draft an RB who hasn’t demonstrated at least some ability to catch the football so that has to be considered as well.

In addition, unless they are interested in bringing in more of gadget type RB/WR/KR, they will likely shy away from the really short and/or light RBs. The proof is in the pudding. Since 2000, out of 108 RBs drafted, Dion Lewis and Darren Sproles are really the only successful RBs drafted under 195 pounds. The shorter RBs (5’9 and under) follow a similar pattern as well.

Similar to the LB position, they treat those positions on a year to year basis and you can find one if you need one. With such limited draft capital, I am not convinced that they will use a pick on an RB. If they do then that says a lot about their thoughts on both Ford and the recovery of Chubb.

I kind of hate sticking Benson and  Brooks in this list because I find it difficult to believe the Browns will draft one at the level that these RBs will start going (mid to late 2nd). The most realistic RBs are later with Jaylen Wright,  Marshawn Lloyd and Isaiah Davis. Wright is a big play machine but he played in the Josh Heupel mickey mouse offense that isn’t totally translatable to the NFL. But you can’t teach 4.38 speed and his yards after contact came in at an elite 4.35, 2nd best in the class. Lloyd intrigues me the most with his speed and big play ability and the fact that you likely can get him a round after someone like Wright. He ranks #1 in the class in missed tackles forced percentage and top five in explosive run percentage. He’s got an ideal RB build (5’9, 220) and only has 291 career attempts in college. So not a ton of tread on his tires.

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