2021 Clevanalytics NFL Closing Line Analysis (Key Numbers)
What is Closing Line Value (“CLV”) in the NFL and why does it matter?
CLV is the price a bettor gets relative to the final closing line for each NFL game. Getting your money down on a line that is ahead of where it actually closes at is considered positive CLV. If your line is worse than the closing number then you are considered to have negative CLV.
For example, getting the Browns at +4 mid week when the line ultimately closes at +2.5 right before kickoff is outstanding CLV. CLV matters most when it surrounds the key numbers of 3, 7, 10 and 14. 6 is becoming more key of late but for this exercise let’s stick to those four numbers the most.
Just because you get good CLV in one singular game doesn’t automatically mean you are going to win. And vice versa. However, over time the more often you can beat the market, the greater your odds are that you will become a winning bettor.
Last season, when examining just ATS sides and the key numbers listed above, Clevanalytics did an excellent job beating the market. Out of 71 games involving key numbers last season, Clevanalytics received positive CLV in 48 of them, for a rate of 68%. In those 48 games, the record was only 26-22 ats (54%) but over the course of time this should indicate a winning strategy in the long run. However, when receiving negative CLV around a key number, our record unsurprisingly was under .500.
