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WILDCARD ROUND

 

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For the Playoffs, TA will release his wagers on the telegram channel. You can follow his personal picks on his betstamp account for transparency purposes. ATS Pick’em picks are listed for those who participate in pick’em pools.  Pick’em pool selections for all games during the week are posted by Saturday morning at the latest. 

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Wildcard Round Trends:

  • In the Wildcard round, in-division rematches have gone over 54.5% of the time since 2000 by an average of 4.9 ppg. Favorites in these rematches are just 8-13 ATS (38%) in the Wildcard round.
  • Only 38% of outdoor Wildcard round games have gone over the total since 2000. Among 34 outdoor Wildcard games with a total of 44.5+ since 2000 (44 being a key total number), 25 went under the total (73.5%). Those games went under by an average of 5.6 ppg, including last year’s TB/WAS game (-8.5 points).
  • A basket of games to potentially target as an over candidate is the lower than average (<44.5) total in a rematch of divisional games. These have gone over the total in 8/10 games by 10.6 ppg.
  • Underdogs of 7 or less are on a 72.5% run since 2017 in the Wildcard round.
  • Home underdogs in Wildcard games are 15-9-2 ATS (62.5%) since 2000. 12 of the 15 teams that covered, also won outright. Of the 11 Wildcard home underdogs from +1 to +2.5, 10 have covered a six point teaser. 
  • In 22 in-division Wildcard rematches, the underdog is 13-8-1 ATS. 8 of the 13 underdogs won outright and went 36% straight up overall versus an expected win % of only 30%. **Of note: dogs of 9.5+ are 1-4 ATS and SU.
  • At least one underdog has won outright in this Wildcard round in 16 of past 18 years. Last year three underdogs won outright (WAS, LAR, HOU) as a dog.
  • First-time playoff QB vs non-first time QB are 19-38 SU and 19-37-1 ATS since 2002. If you exclude rookie QBs making their debuts, veteran first time Playoff QBs vs non-first timers are 13-29 SU and 11-30-1 ATS (27%) since 2002. This year QBs that qualify as first time QBs vs Veteran Playoff QBs would be Drake Maye, Bryce Young and Caleb Williams.
  • Home first time Playoff QBs in the Wildcard round are just 4-13 ATS and just three of 17 teams have gone over their team total.

Wildcard Plays:

  • LA Chargers +3.5
  • BUF/JAX Under 51.5
  • GB ML -116

 

MNF Props:

  • Dalton Schultz over 41.5 rec yards: The Steelers have struggled vs TEs this season (26th in TE yards allowed vs avg, 29th in receptions). PIT are awful vs the slot and have allowed the 4th highest yards per target and 10th most EPA to the slot position. Schultz runs a big % of his routes from the slot. PIT plays man at the 7th highest rate and single high coverage at the 5th highest rate. Schultz ranks 2nd on the Texans in first read targets vs single high with a 16.5% target share (above season avg). Schultz has only faced two teams, three times, who also rank in the top 10 in most yards allowed to TEs over avg. Vs ARI and IND 2x he went for 8-76, 4-73 and 7-55.

 

  • Aaron Rodgers under 204.5 pass yards: Good to 200. No defense in the Playoffs has allowed a lower % of QBs to go over their seasonal yardage avg than HOU. 3rd lowest in the NFL.  Also 5th lowest ypa allowed vs avg in the NFL. HOU is #1 in drop back EPA allowed vs a rather difficult schedule of opposing QBs (11th toughest). Rodgers averages 207, a tad above this number. Rodgers is bottom three in most metrics vs pressure which limits his deep passing opps. Rodgers has played six games vs top 10 pass defenses by ypa allowed. His yardage totals in those games- 168, 117, 235, 219, 200, 203. HOU has faced 14 QBs this season who came into the games vs the Texans averaging 190+ and only three exceeded their seasonal average (Allen, Herbert and Brissett). These 14 QBs averaged 232 yards /Gm and HOU allowed on average just 201. 7/14 QBs went under their yardage by 25+ yards.

Playoff Teams vs Top 20 DVOA this Season

GAME MATCHUPS

Completed Analysis (Bold)

▸
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-10, 46.5) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
SATURDAY 4:30 PM EST Week 19
▸ ATS Pool Pick

Rams -10.5

Under 46.5

▸ Analysis
  • I am really tempted to back the Rams here but the number has gotten away from me so I will pass on the side. My model makes this 10 on the dot so nothing to do here for me. I also am nervous with the potential for lots of rain and wind in this game in Charlotte which would bring the underdog much more into play.
  • I could see not even mess with the standard spread and only take a shot at a very deep alt line like -19.5 to -23.5 or something if interested in going that route. That’s probably the only way I would potentially play it.
  • I think the Rams could just murder Carolina and the number not even come close to mattering but Mcvay loves to sit on the ball late in games with a lead and considering they could end up travelling next week to SEA, making sure they don’t go full force in the 2nd half of a blowout is always possible. And of course the weather could mute a huge Stafford game.
  • The Panthers are also a very high variance team that has proven they can find a way to beat elite teams like the Rams and Packers. They also can lose by 30.
  • Purely based on my blended 4th quarter win probability metric, this is a complete mismatch between the #1 ranked team in the Rams and the Panthers at #25. Carolina has just a 37% expected win percentage when only applying the blended 4th quarter season long metric. Going back 25 years in the my database, this Panthers team comes in as the 3rd worst Playoff team ever. What’s funny is the worst team is the 2011 Denver Broncos led by Tim Tebow, that beat the Steelers in a big upset in that Wildcard year.
  • The gap between the 79% Rams and 37% Panthers based on this metric is the single largest gap in my 25 year Playoff database in the Wildcard round so certainly worthy of this spread. Of the seven other largest mismatches, only the 2011 Broncos won or covered. Those teams lost the cover by 6 ppg.
  • The first matchup between these teams was completely fluky. Yes the Panthers somehow won 31-28 but the Rams outgained Carolina 61%-39% by success rate and an absurd 7.5-5.9 on a yards per play basis. Two INTs, including a pick six, and one late fumble cost the Rams.
  • To put that success rate gap into perspective, there were only 12 other games with a larger gap this season in the NFL. Only one other team (Week 18 CIN v CLE) lost that game and the average margin was +21.6 ppg. Without the huge turnovers, this game was likely a major blowout.
  • The Rams generated a 16% explosive play rate and ran it 21-152 yards. Blake Corum was awesome, running it just seven times but for 81 yards. Kyren Williams 13-72-1TD.
  • The Panthers run defense has struggled, sitting 26th in yards before contact and 28th in stuff rate. Carolina has allowed the 2nd highest rate of alternative (20%+) rush yards per game allowed to starting RBs this season.
  • Considering they need to deal with the scarier part of the Rams offense, their pass game, the Rams might just be able to run it down their throats again. Add the weather concerns and both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams rush props are interesting. I will likely  look to some Corum rush props including some long shot alts.
  • Stafford is awesome when he is not under pressure and the Panthers rank bottom five in the league in all pass rush metrics. It remains to be seen if the Rams get back G Kevin Dotson but the Rams have at least still been top 12 in rush success rate without him.
  • The Panthers run zone at a top five rate and 3rd in Cover 3 at 40%.
  • Puka is 4th in the NFL in target share vs Cover 3 and #1 with a bullet in yards per route. Adams ranks top 12 as well so both guys can eat here. TE Colby Parkinson is 12/12 in targets vs Cover 3 and top 10 in EPA per target. Out of nowhere WR Xavier Smith caught three balls for 83 yards in that game.
  • Bryce Young had such a fluky offensive game as well in their first matchup. The Panthers went 7-15 on 3rd downs and 3-3 on 4th This is a team that ranked 25th in 3rd down conversions at 36%. On two of those 4th downs, Young threw 30+ yard TDs so I imagine the Rams will not play similar coverages in those high leverage downs.
  • The Rams rank 26th in RB targets allowed and 21st in yards per target. The Panthers only threw five total attempts to their RBs so I would look for a bit more of that as the Rams concentrate more on stopping the outside WRs.
  • It will help getting back S Quentin Lake who has been out for two months for the Rams.
  • Overall, this Panthers offense has been among the worst in the NFL and have not generated a success rate above expectations (opposing D avg allowed) in nine weeks. They went from a top 10 rush offense by success rate to start the season to a bottom five unit.
  • Outside of continued extremely flukiness again, I am not sure this will be close.
▸ Trends
▸ Matchup Rankings
Pass/Rush Ranks
LA (O)CAR (D)CAR (O)LA (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency324256
Explosive Pass%1121720
Rushing
Rush Efficiency4271812
Explosive Rush%315227
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)124820
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Matthew StaffordBryce Young
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure59
OL Pressure422
Opp DL Pressure317
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz430
Opp Blitz Rate2131
Team Ranks
LACAR
Net Success119
Offense Pace227
Neutral Pass%721
TO Margin720
OFF TO EPA1422
DEF TO EPA519
▸ Injuries & Status
Rams Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Terrance FergusonTEJan 10HamstringQuestionable
Jordan WhittingtonWRJan 10HeadQuestionable
Davante AdamsWRJan 10HamstringQuestionable
Josh WallaceCBJan 10Questionable
Kevin DotsonGJan 10Questionable
Shaun DolacLBJan 10KneeQuestionable
Quentin LakeSJan 10ElbowInjured Reserve
Rob HavensteinOTJan 10AnkleInjured Reserve
Keir ThomasLBFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Panthers Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Tershawn WhartonDTJan 10Questionable
Robert RochellCBJan 10Questionable
Claudin CherelusLBJan 10Questionable
Bobby Brown IIIDTJan 10ConcussionQuestionable
David MooreWRJan 10ElbowInjured Reserve
Robert HuntGJan 10BicepsInjured Reserve
Ja'Tavion SandersTEFeb 9FibulaInjured Reserve
Trevin WallaceLBFeb 9ShoulderInjured Reserve
Chandler ZavalaGJan 10CalfInjured Reserve
Corey ThorntonCBFeb 9FibulaInjured Reserve
Brady ChristensenGFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Patrick Jones IILBFeb 9BackInjured Reserve
Damarri MathisCBFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Popo AumavaeDTFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Jonathon BrooksRBFeb 9Out
▸ Depth Charts
Rams Depth Chart
Offense
RTRob Havenstein
LWRDavante AdamsKonata Mumpfield
RWRPuka NacuaJordan Whittington
SWRXavier SmithTutu Atwell
LTAlaric JacksonD.J. Humphries
LGSteve Avila
CColeman SheltonBeaux Limmer
RGKevin DotsonJustin Dedich
RTWarren Mcclendon Jr.
TETyler HigbeeColby Parkinson
QBMatthew StaffordJimmy Garoppolo
RBKyren WilliamsBlake Corum
Defense
DEBraden FiskeDesjuan Johnson
NTPoona FordTyler Davis
DTKobie TurnerTy Hamilton
LOLBByron YoungJosaiah Stewart
LILBNate LandmanShaun Dolac
RILBOmar SpeightsTroy Reeder
ROLBJared Verse
LCBCobie DurantAhkello Witherspoon
SSKam Curl
FSJaylen MccolloughKamren Kinchens
RCBEmmanuel Forbes Jr.Darious Williams
NBJosh WallaceRoger Mccreary
Panthers Depth Chart
Offense
RGRobert HuntJake Curhan
LWRTetairoa McmillanDavid Moore
RWRXavier LegetteBrycen Tremayne
SWRJalen CokerJimmy Horn Jr.
LTIkem EkwonuBrady Christensen
LGDamien Lewis
CCade MaysNick Samac
RGAustin CorbettJake Curhan
RTTaylor Moton
TETommy TrembleJa'Tavion Sanders
QBBryce YoungAndy Dalton
RBRico DowdleChuba Hubbard
Defense
LDEDerrick BrownBobby Brown Iii
NTA'Shawn RobinsonCam Jackson
RDETershawn WhartonLabryan Ray
LOLBNic ScourtonTrevis Gipson
LILBClaudin CherelusBam Martin-Scott
RILBChristian RozeboomKrys Barnes
ROLBD.J. WonnumPrincely Umanmielen
LCBMike JacksonRobert Rochell
SSTre'Von MoehrigDemani Richardson
FSNick ScottLathan Ransom
RCBJaycee HornAkayleb Evans
NBChau Smith-Wade
▸
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS (-1.5, 45.5)
SATURDAY 8:00 PM EST Week 19
▸ ATS Pool Pick

GB -1.5

Over 44.5

▸ Analysis
  • I am on the Packers ML at -120 or less. If your ML is higher than a cheaper -1.5 is ok. My numbers make this GB -2.5.
  • This is a matchup between a team in GB that clearly underachieved their final record based on my blended 4th quarter win probabilities (-8%) vs a team in Chicago that continually won games late and overachieved their record greatly (+13.7%). Its essentially a 10.2 win team (GB) vs an 8.7 win team (CHI).
  • The question is how good is the Packers defense considering they’ve been pretty bad following the Parsons trade and how much of an edge does the home field in Chicago give the Bears. GB ranks 31st in EPA and 30th in success rate in the three games between weeks 15-17. I am excluding week 18 since it consisted mostly of backups but otherwise this includes the Denver game where Parsons got hurt and the two other full games without him.
  • The GB defense has been ripped up on the ground without Parsons, allowing a 52% and 55% success rate vs the Bears and Ravens. Chicago will certainly try and pound the ground game all night vs the Packers. I would look to Swift rush props as a possible over if you are not sold on the Packers here.
  • I like that the Packers are finally starting to get a bit more healthy than what we saw over that last few weeks of the season. The virtual bye week for GB in week 18 as well sitting all their starters is only a positive whereas the Bears played their hearts out in a late loss to the Bears. The defense was on the field for 72 plays and now are facing a fresher Packers team. To note, the Bears had a bye week very early this season in week 5.
  • Not only is Jordan Love back from his concussion in week 16 vs the Bears but RB Josh Jacobs got a few weeks off the fully rest and has declared that it’s the best he has felt all season. Backup RB Emmanuel Wilson had a monster game the last time these teams played (14-82) as well so if they need to run this week they will be able to lean on both guys. DE Lukas Van Ness is finally healthy and RT Zach Tom will be back for this game after missing the final couple of weeks.
  • Chicago’s defense continues to be a mirage, heavily influenced by great turnover luck. They rank 26th in success rate and 21st in EPA. If you exclude TOs, that EPA plummets to 30th. They rank #1 in the NFL in EPA generated from TOs and lead with 33 turnovers caused. If you isolate the last seven games of the season, outside of their matchup vs Shedeur and the awful Browns offense, they have allowed a 75th percentile or better offensive game to five of those six opposing offenses. If you exclude the Browns game, it’s the 2nd worst defense in the NFL by success rate.
  • The first two matchups were classics and coin flips but Chicago clearly needed a miracle to beat the Packers at home in their week 16 matchup. The Packers lose Jordan Love after two drives then with Malik Willis take a 16-6 lead with 5m left in the game. Chicago kicked a FG with just under 2m left and then recovered a miracle onside kick before sending the game into OT at the end. Realistically, Green Bay had that game won.
  • The Bears have been particularly poor in the first half of games. They are just 7-10 ATS in the 1H of games this season but against good teams it has been even worse. Against Playoff teams + two games against a good Lions team, the Bears went just 1-6 ATS and trailed at the half by 14, 4, 11, 6, 7 and 13 points in those games. That includes trailing by 11 and 6 to these same Packers. Their lone 1H victory came on that black Friday in Philly.
  • In 10 drives with Love against this Bears defense this season, the Packers scored 31 points, punted just three times, generating 6.1 yards per play. I think the Packers can get off to another hot start and force the Bears to once again try and stage a comeback.
  • Based on my 4th quarter win probability metric, the Packers are a significantly better team.
  • Chicago tied with DEN and NO with the most wins when sitting with <50% 4th quarter win probability (4).
  • A blended 4th quarter win probability gap like this has been brutal for the overachieving team like the Bears historically. These teams like GB cover at a 61% clip and win 13% above expectations. They are 78% ATS and win 33% above expectations when it’s a vet QB vs a first time playoff QB like Caleb.
  • Speaking of which, we also have a case of Caleb Williams making his first career Playoff start. Historically these first time Playoff QBs facing a veteran like Love has been a disaster. Teams are covering at a poor 35% clip over nearly 25 years with the first time QBs. When the QB is a very short underdog (2.5 or less) or a favorite, it’s even worse (29% ATS).
▸ Trends
▸ Matchup Rankings
Pass/Rush Ranks
GB (O)CHI (D)CHI (O)GB (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency220922
Explosive Pass%63277
Rushing
Rush Efficiency2121618
Explosive Rush%122556
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)1329321
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Jordan LoveCaleb Williams
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure1710
OL Pressure1926
Opp DL Pressure236
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz29
Opp Blitz Rate1325
Team Ranks
GBCHI
Net Success624
Offense Pace206
Neutral Pass%2518
TO Margin131
OFF TO EPA32
DEF TO EPA301
▸ Injuries & Status
Packers Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Malik WillisQBJan 10Questionable
Dontayvion WicksWRJan 10Questionable
Zach TomOTJan 10Questionable
Javon BullardSJan 10KneeQuestionable
Bo MeltonCBJan 10KneeQuestionable
Donovan JenningsGFeb 8NeckInjured Reserve
Savion WilliamsWRFeb 8Foot/IllnessInjured Reserve
John WilliamsGJan 10BackOut
Nick NiemannLBJan 10PectoralInjured Reserve
Zayne AndersonSFeb 9AnkleInjured Reserve
Nate HobbsCBFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Kamal HaddenCBFeb 9AnkleInjured Reserve
Jordon RileyDTFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Micah ParsonsDEFeb 9AclInjured Reserve
Kristian WelchLBJan 25AnkleInjured Reserve
John FitzPatrickTEFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
MarShawn LloydRBJan 17HamstringInjured Reserve
Devonte WyattDTFeb 9AnkleInjured Reserve
Elgton JenkinsCJan 10Injured Reserve
Tucker KraftTEFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Travis GloverOTFeb 9ShoulderInjured Reserve
Bears Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSJan 10Questionable
Rome OdunzeWRJan 10Questionable
Ozzy TrapiloOTJan 10Questionable
Joe Tryon-ShoyinkaDEJan 10Questionable
Nick McCloudCBJan 10Questionable
Ty SummersLBJan 10FootQuestionable
Noah SewellLBFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Kyler GordonCBJan 10GroinInjured Reserve
Roschon JohnsonRBJan 10ThumbInjured Reserve
Dayo OdeyingboDEFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Shemar TurnerDTFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOTJan 10KneeInjured Reserve
Kiran AmegadjieOTJan 10ElbowInjured Reserve
Zah FrazierCBFeb 9Out
Terell SmithCBFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Deion HankinsRBFeb 9Shoulder/QuadricepsInjured Reserve
▸ Depth Charts
Packers Depth Chart
Offense
CElgton Jenkins
TETucker Kraft
LWRChristian WatsonSavion Williams
RWRRomeo DoubsMatthew Golden
SWRJayden ReedDontayvion Wicks
LTRasheed WalkerDarian Kinnard
LGAaron BanksDonovan Jennings
CSean Rhyan
RGAnthony Belton
RTZach TomJordan Morgan
TELuke Musgrave
QBJordan LoveMalik Willis
RBJosh JacobsEmanuel Wilson
Defense
LDERashan GaryBrenton Cox Jr.
LDTKarl BrooksWarren Brinson
RDTColby WoodenNazir Stackhouse
RDEKingsley EnagbareLukas Van Ness
WLBEdgerrin CooperTy'Ron Hopper
MLBQuay WalkerIsaiah Mcduffie
LCBKeisean NixonShemar Bartholomew
SSXavier MckinneyKitan Oladapo
FSEvan WilliamsJohnathan Baldwin
RCBCarrington ValentineTrevon Diggs
NBJavon Bullard
Bears Depth Chart
Offense
LTBraxton Jones
LWRRome OdunzeJahdae Walker
RWRDj MooreOlamide Zaccheaus
SWRLuther Burden IiiDevin Duvernay
LTOzzy Trapilo
LGJoe ThuneyJordan Mcfadden
CDrew DalmanRyan Bates
RGJonah JacksonLuke Newman
RTDarnell Wright
TEColston LovelandCole Kmet
QBCaleb WilliamsTyson Bagent
RBD'Andre SwiftRoschon Johnson
Defense
LDEMontez SweatDominique Robinson
LDTGervon Dexter Sr.Chris Williams
RDTGrady JarrettAndrew Billings
RDEAustin BookerJoe Tryon-Shoyinka
WLBT.J. EdwardsAmen Ogbongbemiga
MLBTremaine EdmundsD'Marco Jackson
LCBNahshon WrightTyrique Stevenson
SSJaquan BriskerJonathan Owens
FSKevin Byard IiiElijah Hicks
RCBJaylon JohnsonNick Mccloud
NBC.J. Gardner-JohnsonJosh Blackwell
▸
BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5, 51.5) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
SUNDAY 1:00 PM EST Week 19
▸ ATS Pool Pick

JAX +1.5

U 51.5

▸ Analysis
  • My season long numbers certainly don’t come anywhere near this but I understand that the Jags offense is totally different from the first half of the season.
  • Even if I use my more recent data (L6 weeks) I still fall well short here. The Jags have been one of if not the most pass heavy teams to end the year but that is actually playing into the Bills defensive strength. BUF wants you to run the ball and they’ve been gashed all year. Will the Jags take the bait? That will be a big question in this game.
  • They have been great thru the air of late (#2 in DB EPA since week 14) but are also just 31st in rush EPA in that same stretch. On the season, BUF sits 31st in rush EPA and 8th in drop back EPA. So essentially if JAX tries to go pass heavy, they will play into the Bills strength but if they decide to run the ball more than they have recently, how successful will they be? Either way that does play into this not being as favorable a matchup as this total indicates on the Jags side.
  • For BUF, this offense has been vastly overrated all year. For one, they are a really slow paced, methodical offense that relies heavily on their run game. BUF ranks 24th in neutral game pass rate over the last six weeks and have leaned on that run game to win games.
  • The Jags defense has faced the single most pass heavy set of opponents all season and outside of the shitty Jets, have not faced an offense that runs at a top 12 rate since week 6 and the Seahawks.
  • So the Jags games have been track meets of late and a lot of that is just based on opponents.
  • I think this game will be much more run heavy and slow than expected and historically speaking, these Wildcard games in the 50s that are not played in the fast track of a dome, are way lower scoring than expected.
  • Only 40% of Wildcard games have gone over the total in games lined at 50+. Only two of 17 Wildcard games played outdoors with a higher total (47.5+) have gone over the total. Those games have gone under by nearly 6 ppg.
  • From a props perspective I do believe that TE Dalton Kincaid can have a solid game. He was such a big part of the early/mid season pass game and Allen’s only reliable target but he was continuously banged up late in the season. He looks to finally be healthy and faces a Jags defense that allowed the highest rate of TEs to go over their season yardage average and 2nd highest over their receptions.
  • The Jags run zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL and Kincaid has been Allen’s 2nd favorite target vs zone coverage
  • Buffalo has been really good limiting WRs this season and going up against the trio of Washington, Thomas and Meyers will be a chore. Some of it is purely bc the Bills are a run funnel but they do a very good job limiting explosives. BUF has allowed the 7th lowest yards per target to TEs and 6th lowest to WRs. They have also allowed the single lowest target share to TEs in the NFL even though they have faced a schedule of opposing TEs that target TEs at an above average rate (13th).
  • I know the Jags have seen great production from TE Brenton Strange of late but this is a tough matchup. They have faced 7 straight defensive opponents who cover TEs at a bottom 18 rate so his recent production looks inflated. BUF has allowed just one opposing starting TE to exceed their season reception average. They’ve allowed just one TE all year (Gesicki) to exceed 70 receiving yards and 4 receptions. Good TEs like Fannin (4-34), Goedert (3-8), Pitts (3-18), Schultz (1-8), Henry (1-18).
  • Where the Jags can really attack thru the air would be with their RBs, mainly Etienne. Buffalo has allowed the 2nd highest target share to RBs this season, however, the 8th lowest yards per target. So an Etienne reception over could be the look rather than yardage. In fact, if you want to get nuts with some out of the money SGPs, including Etienne over receptions, under yards along with Strange alt unders is worth a consideration with a Jags ML.
▸ Trends
▸ Matchup Rankings
Pass/Rush Ranks
BUF (O)JAX (D)JAX (O)BUF (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency44108
Explosive Pass%56810
Rushing
Rush Efficiency271931
Explosive Rush%652830
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)217157
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Josh AllenTrevor Lawrence
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure134
OL Pressure317
Opp DL Pressure1810
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz1714
Opp Blitz Rate1620
Team Ranks
BUFJAX
Net Success49
Offense Pace3110
Neutral Pass%2810
TO Margin104
OFF TO EPA1216
DEF TO EPA152
▸ Injuries & Status
Bills Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Curtis SamuelWRJan 17ElbowInjured Reserve
Ty JohnsonRBJan 11HeadQuestionable
Ed OliverDTJan 17Biceps/KneeInjured Reserve
Matt PraterPKJan 11QuadricepsQuestionable
Jordan PoyerSJan 11Questionable
DaQuan JonesDTJan 11Questionable
Terrel BernardLBJan 11Questionable
Joey BosaDEJan 11Questionable
Maxwell HairstonCBJan 11AnkleDoubtful
Chase LundtOTJan 17KneeInjured Reserve
Tyler BassPKFeb 9Left Hip/GroinInjured Reserve
Landon JacksonDEJan 17KneeInjured Reserve
Dorian StrongCBJan 17NeckInjured Reserve
Michael HoechtDEFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Taylor RappSJan 17KneeInjured Reserve
Damar HamlinSJan 17PectoralInjured Reserve
DeWayne CarterDTFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Wande OwensSFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Jaguars Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Patrick MekariGJan 11Questionable
Cole Van LanenOTJan 11KneeQuestionable
Jalen McLeodLBJan 11AnkleInjured Reserve
Jourdan LewisCBFeb 9FootInjured Reserve
Jack KiserLBJan 17UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Travis HunterWRFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Caleb RansawCBFeb 9Lower BodyInjured Reserve
Joshua CephusWRFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Cooper HodgesOTJan 11KneeOut
▸ Depth Charts
Bills Depth Chart
Offense
LWRJoshua PalmerKeon Coleman
RWRTyrell ShaversCurtis Samuel
SWRKhalil ShakirElijah Moore
LTDion DawkinsTylan Grable
LGDavid Edwards
CConnor McgovernSedrick Van Pran-Granger
RGO'Cyrus TorrenceAlec Anderson
RTSpencer BrownChase Lundt
TEDawson KnoxDalton Kincaid
QBJosh AllenMitchell Trubisky
RBJames Cook IiiRay Davis
FBReggie Gilliam
Defense
LDEGreg RousseauJavon Solomon
LDTDaquan JonesT.J. Sanders
RDTDeone WalkerPhidarian Mathis
RDEJoey BosaA.J. Epenesa
WLBMatt MilanoDorian Williams
MLBTerrel BernardShaq Thompson
LCBChristian BenfordMaxwell Hairston
SSJordan PoyerJordan Hancock
FSCole BishopSam Franklin Jr.
RCBTre'Davious White
NBTaron JohnsonCam Lewis
Jaguars Depth Chart
Offense
SWRTravis Hunter
LWRBrian Thomas Jr.Tim Patrick
RWRJakobi MeyersDyami Brown
SWRParker Washington
LTCole Van Lanen
LGEzra ClevelandWyatt Milum
CRobert HainseyJonah Monheim
RGPatrick MekariWalker Little
RTAnton HarrisonChuma Edoga
TEBrenton StrangeJohnny Mundt
QBTrevor LawrenceNick Mullens
RBTravis Etienne Jr.Bhayshul Tuten
Defense
LDETravon WalkerDawuane Smoot
LDTDavon HamiltonAustin Johnson
RDTMatt DickersonArik Armstead
RDEJosh Hines-AllenDanny Striggow
WLBFoyesade OluokunDennis Gardeck
MLBDevin LloydVentrell Miller
LCBMontaric BrownKeith Taylor
SSEric MurrayRayuan Lane Iii
FSAndrew WingardAntonio Johnson
RCBGreg Newsome IiChristian Braswell
NBJarrian Jones
▸
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-4.5, 44.5)
SUNDAY 4:30 PM EST Week 19
▸ ATS Pool Pick

PHI -4.5

U 44.5

▸ Analysis
  • There was only one way to play the side here, the Eagles, and clearly this thing got steamed into oblivion. Rightfully so based on the matchup, weather and injury issues for SF
  • I was late to the party and missed it so not angle either way for me.
  • I do lean under here but again that has been hit pretty hard after opening at 46.5
  • As we saw vs the Seahawks and earlier vs the Browns, whenever the Niners had to step up with Brock Purdy vs a top 10 level defense, they could not do enough. Against everyone else, this Niners offense has been dominant. The issue is the Eagles can make you look bad
  • Philly’s defense is absolutely battle tested and have faced the single toughest schedule of opposing QBs. Only 21% of opposing QB drop backs have come against backup QBs or those ranked 30th or worse in EPA. So their 11th EPA per drop back ranking looks much more impressive based on that brutal schedule. They lead the NFL in percentage of opposing QBs to generate an EPA below expectations (71%).
  • Purdy is pretty sensitive to pressure and of course weather. In Philly we are looking at mid 40 degrees which is fine but gusty winds at 20-30 mph.
  • The 49ers have not run the ball well all year and with LT Trent Williams either missing or hampered, it will be difficult to move it vs the Eagles front
  • WR Rickey Pearsall is likely out again as well
  • The Niners with Purdy have faced just four defenses ranked top 15 in EPA allowed, scoring just 17, 21, 26 and 3 points.
  • Defensively is where the Niners have been really bad. Five straight opponents have exceeded expectations in success rate and EPA against this defense
  • The 49ers defense ranks 25th in EPA allowed on drop backs and have done so against the 23rd ranked schedule of opposing QBs. When you look at an apples to apples basis, only 42% of opposing QBs have generated an EPA below expectations
  • The thing with the Eagles is they try and jump out to a lead early then go into hibernation mode in the 2nd half and just rely on their run game and defense to bring it home. Watch for this in game and if the Eagles get off to a hot start, potentially look for a 2H under if the number is not adjusted enough
  • Saquon Barkley has not been nearly as explosive as last season and has been getting hit behind the line of scrimmage way too much. The Niners defense has allowed the 12th highest yards prior to contact. The Eagles do welcome back T Lane Johnson and historically speaking their offensive splits are night and day when he’s out of the lineup so he is going to be a big help.
  • There is a chance that Jalen Hurts and the passing game isn’t as dominant as the market may expect. Hurts is much better vs man coverage but the Niners play man coverage at a bottom 10 rate.
  • It will not help the Niners that they lost starting LB Tatum Bethune and LB Dee Winters is very Questionable. The Niners run defense suffered much more without Bethune on the field a handful of weeks ago.
  • SF is 25th in EPA allowed over the middle of the field and while he only attempts throws over the middle at the 2nd lowest rate in the league, Hurts has generated the 2nd highest EPA. It’s a very even distribution of targets and receptions between AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. Goedert has four TDs over the middle this season, most on the team. I will certainly look to some Goedert props with the Niners missing potentially their top three LBs as well. Goedert has scored a TD in three straight games and four total in that span.
▸ Trends
▸ Matchup Rankings
Pass/Rush Ranks
SF (O)PHI (D)PHI (O)SF (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency6111525
Explosive Pass%1111199
Rushing
Rush Efficiency1091317
Explosive Rush%232048
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)9263028
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Brock PurdyJalen Hurts
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure36
OL Pressure910
Opp DL Pressure1330
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz624
Opp Blitz Rate2830
Team Ranks
SFPHI
Net Success1813
Offense Pace1612
Neutral Pass%916
TO Margin226
OFF TO EPA219
DEF TO EPA238
▸ Injuries & Status
49ers Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Jacob CowingWRJan 11HamstringInjured Reserve
Luke GiffordLBJan 11QuadricepsQuestionable
Fred WarnerLBJan 25Ankle - IrInjured Reserve
Tatum BethuneLBFeb 9GroinOut
Trent WilliamsOTJan 11Questionable
Ricky PearsallWRJan 11Questionable
Dee WintersLBJan 11AnkleQuestionable
Kurtis RourkeQBFeb 9KneeOut
Nick MartinLBJan 17ConcussionInjured Reserve
Brandon AiyukWRFeb 9KneeOut
Ben BartchGJan 11FootInjured Reserve
Mykel WilliamsDEFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Nick BosaDEFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Jakob RobinsonCBFeb 9ForearmInjured Reserve
Patrick Taylor Jr.RBFeb 9Injured Reserve
Tarron JacksonDEFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Trent TaylorWRFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Tre TomlinsonCBFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Eagles Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Jaelan PhillipsLBJan 11Questionable
Lane JohnsonOTJan 11Questionable
Dallas GoedertTEJan 11Questionable
Marcus EppsSJan 11Questionable
Nakobe DeanLBJan 11Questionable
Jalen CarterDTJan 11Questionable
Brett TothCJan 11HeadQuestionable
Grant CalcaterraTEJan 11Ankle/KneeQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonCBJan 11AnkleQuestionable
Myles HintonOTFeb 9BackInjured Reserve
Willie LampkinCFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Andrew MukubaSJan 11AnkleInjured Reserve
Azeez OjulariLBJan 11Injured Reserve
Ogbo OkoronkwoDEFeb 9TricepsInjured Reserve
Ben VanSumerenFBJan 11Injured Reserve
Johnny WilsonWRFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
▸ Depth Charts
49ers Depth Chart
Offense
LGBen Bartch
LWRRicky PearsallKendrick Bourne
RWRJauan JenningsSkyy Moore
SWRDemarcus RobinsonJordan Watkins
LTTrent WilliamsAusten Pleasants
LGSpencer Burford
CJake BrendelMatt Hennessy
RGDominick PuniConnor Colby
RTColton Mckivitz
TEGeorge KittleLuke Farrell
QBBrock PurdyMac Jones
RBChristian MccaffreyBrian Robinson Jr.
FBKyle Juszczyk
Defense
LDEBryce HuffYetur Gross-Matos
LDTJordan ElliottAlfred Collins
RDTKalia DavisC.J. West
RDESam OkuayinonuKeion White
WLBDee WintersLuke Gifford
MLBTatum BethuneGarret Wallow
LCBRenardo GreenDarrell Luter Jr.
SSJi'Ayir BrownJason Pinnock
FSMalik MustaphaMarques Sigle
RCBDeommodore LenoirSiran Neal
NBUpton StoutChase Lucas
Eagles Depth Chart
Offense
FBBen Vansumeren
LWRA.J. BrownDarius Cooper
RWRJahan Dotson
SWRDevonta SmithBritain Covey
LTJordan MailataFred Johnson
LGLandon DickersonBrett Toth
CCam JurgensDrew Kendall
RGTyler SteenWillie Lampkin
RTLane JohnsonCameron Williams
TEDallas GoedertGrant Calcaterra
QBJalen HurtsTanner Mckee
RBSaquon BarkleyWill Shipley
Defense
DEMoro Ojomo
NTJordan DavisTy Robinson
DTJalen CarterByron Young
LOLBJaelan PhillipsBrandon Graham
WLBZack BaunJeremiah Trotter Jr.
MLBNakobe DeanJihaad Campbell
ROLBNolan Smith Jr.Jalyx Hunt
LCBQuinyon MitchellKelee Ringo
SSMarcus EppsSydney Brown
FSReed Blankenship
RCBAdoree' JacksonJakorian Bennett
NBCooper DejeanMichael Carter Ii
▸
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5, 46.5)
SUNDAY 8:00 PM EST Week 19
▸ ATS Pool Pick

LAC +3.5

U 46.5

▸ Analysis
  •  I have this game at NE -3 so at 3.5 I think there is great value on LA.
  • Their major matchup issue is always upfront with their OL vs the pass rush but luckily they are matched up with one of the worst pass rush units in the Playoffs in NE. NE is 18th in PFF pass rush grade and while 10th in pressure rate, they have faced the easiest pass schedule in the NFL.
  • The Patriots defense is vastly overrated and have not faced much of anyone at offense. NE has faced the single easiest schedule of opposing offenses this season. Josh Allen 2x and Lamar Jackson are the ONLY good QBs they faced all season and allowed 56%, 51% and 58% success rates in those games.
  • I would definitely argue that only based on this season’s performance, that Justin Herbert is the 2nd best QB they have faced this season
  • I like rookie TE Orande Gadsden vs this Patriots defense. NE has struggled defending TEs this season, allowing the 4th highest target share and 18th in adjusted yards per target. They have allowed the 7th highest rate of opposing TEs to go over their season yardage marks.
  • We have also seen the Pats struggle against some good WRs like Drake London and Emeka Egbuka. By only DK points per game, the Patriots have easily faced the easiest schedule of opposing WRs. I would argue this is by far the best and deepest WR corps the Pats have faced all season. We know Christian Gonzalez is excellent but he is just one man.  10/14 WRs they have faced who average 40+ yards per game this season, cleared that mark vs the Pats this year. This Chargers WR group will clearly test this secondary.
  • Drake Maye has been awesome, MVP in my eyes, but it is still his first career start in the Playoffs and will be facing one of the better DCs in the league in Jesse Minter.
  • The Chargers pass defense ranks 4th in the NFL by EPA and have faced a top 13 schedule of opposing QBs. This will only be his 4th game all season facing a top 12 EPA pass defense so certainly a big step up.
  • Maye has lived off of explosive pass plays but this Chargers defense has allowed the 4th lowest rate of explosive passes. The Raiders are the only other top 10 defense the Pats have faced when it comes to fewest explosive passes allowed and NE scored just 13 in a loss to LV.
  • NE is also 2nd in the NFL in EPA on early downs but the Chargers defense is 4th best on those same early downs. Its imperative that the Chargers defense slows down Maye early to force tough 3rd and longs.
  • Chargers are very live to win outright.
▸ Trends
  • First-time playoff QB vs non-first time QB are 19-38 SU and 19-37-1 ATS since 2002. Rookie QBs making their first Playoff starts vs a QB not making their Playoff debuts are 6-9 straight up and 8-7 ATS since 2002. If you exclude rookie QBs making their debuts, first time Playoff QBs vs non-first timers are 13-29 SU and 11-30-1 ATS (27%) since 2002.
  • First time playoff QBs in the Wildcard round are just 1-12 ATS and 2-11 SU when favored like Maye
▸ Matchup Rankings
Pass/Rush Ranks
LAC (O)NE (D)NE (O)LAC (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency231017
Explosive Pass%26824
Rushing
Rush Efficiency2316254
Explosive Rush%27101522
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)2761311
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Justin HerbertDrake Maye
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure157
OL Pressure3118
Opp DL Pressure2415
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz711
Opp Blitz Rate1430
Team Ranks
LACNE
Net Success105
Offense Pace3123
Neutral Pass%65
TO Margin199
OFF TO EPA2411
DEF TO EPA1813
▸ Injuries & Status
Chargers Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Jamaree SalyerGJan 11Questionable
Elijah MoldenCBJan 11Questionable
Omarion HamptonRBJan 11Questionable
Bradley BozemanCJan 11Questionable
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRJan 11HamstringQuestionable
Kendall WilliamsonSJan 11AnkleQuestionable
Bud DupreeLBJan 11HamstringQuestionable
Donte JacksonCBJan 11AnkleQuestionable
Nikko ReedCBFeb 8HamstringInjured Reserve
Tucker FiskTEJan 11AnkleInjured Reserve
Joe AltOTFeb 9AnkleInjured Reserve
Rick LovatoLSFeb 9UndisclosedReserve-Ret
Najee HarrisRBFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
Eric RogersCBJan 11UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Junior ColsonLBFeb 9ShoulderInjured Reserve
Jordan OladokunCBFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Rashawn SlaterOTFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Josh FugaDTFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Patriots Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Jared WilsonGJan 11Questionable
Khyiris TongaDTJan 11Questionable
Robert SpillaneLBJan 11Questionable
Harold Landry IIILBJan 11Questionable
Alex AustinCBJan 11WristInjured Reserve
Mack HollinsWRJan 25AbdomenInjured Reserve
Joshua FarmerDTJan 25HamstringInjured Reserve
Terrell JenningsRBJan 11ConcussionInjured Reserve
Antonio GibsonRBFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Isaiah ItonDTFeb 9HipInjured Reserve
Deneric PrinceRBFeb 9Injured Reserve
Lan LarisonRBFeb 9FootInjured Reserve
Marcellas Dial Jr.CBFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Jaquelin RoyDTFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Yasir DurantOTFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Brock LampeFBFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
▸ Depth Charts
Chargers Depth Chart
Offense
LTJoe Alt
LWRQuentin JohnstonTre' Harris
RWRKeenan AllenKeandre Lambert-Smith
SWRLadd McconkeyDerius Davis
LTJamaree Salyer
LGZion Johnson
CBradley BozemanAndre James
RGMekhi BectonTrevor Penning
RTTrey Pipkins IiiAustin Deculus
TEOronde GadsdenTyler Conklin
QBJustin HerbertTrey Lance
RBOmarion HamptonNajee Harris
FBScott Matlock
Defense
DEDa'Shawn HandJustin Eboigbe
NTJamaree CaldwellOtito Ogbonnia
DTTeair Tart
LOLBTuli TuipulotuOdafe Oweh
LILBTroy DyeMarlowe Wax
RILBDaiyan HenleyDel'Shawn Phillips
ROLBKhalil MackBud Dupree
LCBBenjamin St-JusteDonte Jackson
SSDerwin James Jr.Rj Mickens
FSElijah MoldenTony Jefferson
RCBCam HartDeane Leonard
NBTarheeb Still
Patriots Depth Chart
Offense
LWRKayshon BoutteMack Hollins
RWRStefon Diggs
SWRDemario DouglasEfton Chism Iii
LTWill CampbellVederian Lowe
LGJared WilsonBen Brown
CGarrett Bradbury
RGMike OnwenuCaedan Wallace
RTMorgan MosesMarcus Bryant
TEHunter HenryAustin Hooper
QBDrake MayeJoshua Dobbs
RBTreveyon HendersonRhamondre Stevenson
FBJack Westover
Defense
DEMilton Williams
NTKhyiris TongaCory Durden
DTChristian BarmoreEric Gregory
LOLBK'Lavon ChaissonElijah Ponder
LILBRobert SpillaneChristian Elliss
RILBJack GibbensJahlani Tavai
ROLBHarold Landry IiiAnfernee Jennings
LCBCarlton Davis IiiCharles Woods
SSCraig WoodsonDell Pettus
FSJaylinn HawkinsBrenden Schooler
RCBChristian GonzalezKobee Minor
NBMarcus Jones
▸
HOUSTON TEXANS (-3, 39.5) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
MONDAY 8:00 PM EST Week 19
▸ ATS Pool Pick

HOU -3

Over 38.5

▸ Analysis
  • For now I am not on the side/total but as this number continues to drop I may find myself taking the Texans at a cheap 3 or just under 3
  • I think outside of the Tomlin voodoo, there is not much that makes sense with this number
  • PIT does most of their damage on offense with smoke and mirrors. While they get back DK Metcalf, its just a ton of dink and dunk throws the Gainwell, Warren and the TEs
  • CB Derek Stingley can essentially erase Metcalf and then its whether or not the pass rush can get to Rodgers in time to disrupt those short outlet throws. I will say for as elite as the Texans defense has been, they do funnel targets to the TEs and RBs.
  • Houston’s defense ranks #1 in Drop back EPA and #2 in overall EPA but have faced the 6th toughest schedule of opposing offenses.
  • My hesitation with this defense is that it has been a bit leaky of late. Maybe they are just bored but they allowed, on a relative basis, decent performances from bad offenses like the Cardinals, Colts and Raiders.
  • We do know that Rodgers is very sensitive to pressure. He ranks 31st in EPA out of 33 qualified QBs and 25th in CPOE when pressured this season. When he has been pressured, Rodgers has targeted Gainwell and Freiermuth the most this season. Look for Gainwell to continue to get peppered by targets as he has seen 7+ in four of his last five games.
  • Rodgers and the Steelers have gone under their team total in 5 of 7 starts vs top 10 EPA pass defenses. He has generated just a 44th percentile EPA in aggregate in those games vs all other QBs against those same defenses. He has underperformed
  • It will help HOU to get back CB Kamari Lassiter to shore up the other side of the field
  • I dont think either team will be able to run the ball well on Monday as they rank 2nd and 3rd in success rate over the last 6 games
  • The Texans will certainly try and be able to throw it down the field with Stroud to Collins or Higgins as most likely targets. We have seen Jaylin Noel also hit big ones like they did vs the Chargers a few weeks back
  • We saw Lamar and Flowers connect on multiple deep shots last SNF so expect the Texans to air it out
  • Stroud has been sensitive to colder weather even dating back to his OSU days so there is a risk that he isn’t as accurate as he’d like
  • Joey Porter Jr has been excellent this season so look to see if he is shadowing Nico Collins. The Texans may just opt to attack everywhere else if that is indeed the case. If not, Nico can move around and pick his spots
  • The Steelers are awful vs the slot and have allowed the 4th highest yards per target and 10th most EPA to the slot position. Both Christian Kirk and TE Dalton Schultz run a majority of the slot routes for HOU
  • Maybe TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith get to Stroud enough for him to make mistakes and the Tomlin voodoo is in effect to keep the Steelers alive but without turnovers, I find it hard to buy that the Steelers offense can generate consistent enough offense to win this game
  • That could lead Demeco Ryans to run the ball too much with Woody Marks and put the ball in his defense’s hands
  • I would expect both teams to start very conservative and slow then pick things up in the 2nd half. To that point, Texans games have gone over the total in the 1H of road games just once all season in eight games while Steelers 1H totals have gone over at home just once as well in nine games. Both have gone 0-5 in the last five to the over in the 1H of games. These teams rank 2nd and 5th in lowest ppg allowed in the 1H this season with a combined 17.1.
▸ Trends
  • Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game nearly a decade, losing six straight ATS and outright
  • HOU is 36-19 ATS in the 1H of games since Demeco Ryans took over
▸ Matchup Rankings
Pass/Rush Ranks
HOU (O)PIT (D)PIT (O)HOU (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency1716191
Explosive Pass%20162213
Rushing
Rush Efficiency302473
Explosive Rush%2918102
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO)2513165
QB v. Pressure Ranks
C.J. StroudAaron Rodgers
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure2435
OL Pressure122
Opp DL Pressure1720
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz3523
Opp Blitz Rate427
Team Ranks
HOUPIT
Net Success816
Offense Pace1619
Neutral Pass%813
TO Margin23
OFF TO EPA14
DEF TO EPA43
▸ Injuries & Status
Texans Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Kamari LassiterCBJan 12Questionable
Jamal HillLBJan 12Questionable
Trent BrownOTJan 12Questionable
Kaevon MerriweatherSJan 12KneeQuestionable
Jawhar JordanRBJan 12AnkleQuestionable
Darrell TaylorDEJan 12AnkleInjured Reserve
Ajani CarterCBJan 12HamstringInjured Reserve
Tank DellWRFeb 9KneeOut
Joe MixonRBFeb 9Foot/AnkleOut
Jake HansenLBJan 25ChestInjured Reserve
Mario Edwards Jr.DTFeb 9PectoralInjured Reserve
Brevin JordanTEFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Jaylen ReedSJan 12ForearmInjured Reserve
Tim Settle Jr.DTFeb 9FootInjured Reserve
M.J. StewartSFeb 9QuadricepsInjured Reserve
Jaylin SmithCBFeb 9UndisclosedInjured Reserve
Jimmie WardSJan 12FootOut
Folorunso FatukasiDTJan 12ShoulderInjured Reserve
Kyonte HamiltonDTFeb 9AnkleInjured Reserve
Kurt HinishDTJan 12UndisclosedOut
Steelers Injury Report
PlayerPosDateInjuryStatus
Darnell WashingtonTEFeb 9ForearmInjured Reserve
Daniel EkualeDTFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Calvin AndersonOTJan 12KneeInjured Reserve
Donte KentCBFeb 9AnkleInjured Reserve
Broderick JonesOTFeb 9NeckInjured Reserve
Cory Trice Jr.CBFeb 9Hamstring/KneeInjured Reserve
DeShon ElliottSJan 12KneeInjured Reserve
Miles KillebrewSFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Max ScharpingGFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Isaiahh LoudermilkDTJan 12AnkleInjured Reserve
Skylar ThompsonQBJan 12HamstringInjured Reserve
Dean LowryDTFeb 9KneeInjured Reserve
Jacob SladeDTFeb 9Injured Reserve
Donald Parham Jr.TEFeb 9AchillesInjured Reserve
▸ Depth Charts
Texans Depth Chart
Offense
LGLaken Tomlinson
RBNick ChubbJawhar Jordan
LWRNico CollinsJaylin Noel
RWRJayden HigginsXavier Hutchinson
SWRChristian KirkJustin Watson
LTAireontae ErseryBlake Fisher
LGTytus Howard
CJake AndrewsJuice Scruggs
RGEd IngramJarrett Kingston
RTTrent Brown
TEDalton SchultzCade Stover
QBC.J. StroudDavis Mills
RBWoody MarksJawhar Jordan
FBBritish Brooks
Defense
LDEWill Anderson Jr.Dylan Horton
LDTSheldon RankinsNaquan Jones
RDTTommy TogiaiDenico Autry
RDEDanielle HunterDerek Barnett
WLBHenry To'Oto'OChristian Harris
MLBAzeez Al-ShaairE.J. Speed
LCBDerek Stingley Jr.Tremon Smith
SSMyles Bryant
FSCalen BullockK'Von Wallace
RCBKamari LassiterJa'Marcus Ingram
NBJalen PitreAlijah Huzzie
Steelers Depth Chart
Offense
RWRRoman Wilson
LTBroderick Jones
LWRDk MetcalfCalvin Austin Iii
RWRMarquez Valdes-Scantling
SWRAdam ThielenBen Skowronek
LTDylan Cook
LGIsaac SeumaloSpencer Anderson
CZach FrazierRyan Mccollum
RGMason MccormickMax Scharping
RTTroy FautanuCalvin Anderson
TEPat FreiermuthJonnu Smith
QBAaron RodgersMason Rudolph
RBKenneth GainwellKaleb Johnson
Defense
DEDerrick HarmonYahya Black
NTKeeanu BentonLogan Lee
DTCameron HeywardEsezi Otomewo
LOLBT.J. WattJack Sawyer
LILBPatrick QueenMalik Harrison
RILBPayton WilsonCole Holcomb
ROLBAlex HighsmithNick Herbig
LCBJames PierreAsante Samuel Jr.
SSKyle DuggerSebastian Castro
FSChuck ClarkJabrill Peppers
RCBJoey Porter Jr.
NBJalen RamseyBrandin Echols
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Alternative Wagers

Wildcard Highest Scoring Teams and Games

  • 6 of the last 7 teams to lead the Wildcard weekend in most points were team totals < average for the weekend. Meaning bottom expected scoring teams led the weekend in scoring.
  • If you want to go off the map, finding an elite defense that can create scoring off turnovers is a potential route.
  • Majority of recent highest scoring teams come from avg-below avg point totals on teams with top 10 pass offenses.