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First TD Scorers

CHI v DET:

Keenan Allen: Can find anywhere from 17-1 to 22-1

Allen excels vs man coverage and the Lions play man at the highest rate in the league. He had 2 TDs vs the 2nd most man heavy defense in the league in the Jags back last month in London. Detroit has allowed the single highest rate of targets to WRs at the goal line in the NFL at 83 %. I can see a fade inside the 5 to Allen if the Bears get down there early.

Sam LaPorta: Can find between 11-1 and 13-1

LaPorta has seen the 3rd most red zone targets and 2nd most end zone targets for the Lions. The Bears struggle badly vs TEs ranking bottom five in both target share and yards per target. Chicago has allowed the 5th highest rate of targets in the red zone to TEs.

NYG v DAL:

Luke Schoonmaker: 15-1
 
Darius Slayton: 30-1
 

MIA v GB:

Dontayvian Wicks: 16-1 on DK

Wicks will step up into the role without Doubs tonight and he actually ranks 1st on the team in both red zone and end zone targets this season. Josh Jacobs is the easy choice tonight but for a little longer odds I will go with Wicks.

Jonnu Smith: 16-1 on DK

Jonnu has been excellent this year and in the last two games has gone for 6-101-2 and 9-87-1. The Packers do vary their coverages but lately have been using a high rate of Cover 2 and Cover 3. Jonnu leads the Dolphins in target share and yardage vs Cover 2 and vs Cover 3 ranks #1 in the NFL among TEs in fantasy points per route against those coverages. In a cold game where Tua will likely continue to get the ball out quickly and Smith should be the beneficiary. My numbers make this 55.5.


GAME ANALYSIS

**Dark Shaded Matchups have analysis completed. Click on matchup to expand

THURSDAY 12:30 PM EST
CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS (-10.5, 48.5)
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
CHI (O) DET (D) DET (O) CHI (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 23 2 2 7
Explosive Pass% 29 12 1 29
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 17 4 3 20
Explosive Rush% 31 18 5 28
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 28 4 1 27
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Caleb Williams Jared Goff
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure 32 29
OL Pressure 17 20
Opp DL Pressure 6 10
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz 12 16
Opp Blitz Rate 4 21
Team Ranks
CHI DET
Net Success 19 1
Offense Pace 8 22
Neutral Pass% 12 31
TO Margin 6 3
OFF TO EPA 4 7
DEF TO EPA 10 1
ANALYSIS
  • Lets first talk about what is going on in Lions games the last two seasons bc its been a square bettors paradise. Its really difficult to capture just how dominant the Lions have been this season considering not only do they continue to win games, they also continue to cover at extremely high levels. They are 9-2 ATS and in the games they have covered, they have done so by more than three points in seven of those nine games. They have covered by double digits as favorites four times, more than any other team in the league. Their +10.5 ATS margin per game is four points per game more than any other team in the league. Even dating back to last season, the Lions were 14-6 ATS (70%) and as favorites covered by double digits four times as well. Even when you think their spreads are inflated, as this likely is, the market just cannot catch up to their dominance. To their credit, they keep bringing a full effort to every game.
  • Same could possibly be said about the totals in Lions home games. In the last two seasons, Lions home games have gone over 71% of the time by nearly 5 ppg. If you isolate all those games with a total less than 50 points, 10/12 games (91%) have gone over the total in Lions home games the last two seasons, by an average of 8.5 ppg. Amazingly, six of those games have gone over by double digits. Between the Lions dominance vs the market expectations as favorites and the totals cruising over in home games, the alternative numbers could all be in play.
  • Its not only the offense that continues to keep humming but the Lions defensive numbers are that of an elite defense, which is surprising for Detroit. They sit 2nd in defensive EPA per drop back allowed and have allowed the 12th lowest rate of explosive pass plays. They dont have much talent right now along the front seven with losses to Aiden Hutchinson and Alex Anzalone at LB. Their secondary is really buoyed by two of the best playmakers at Safety in Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Some of their metrics are turnover induced (6th most EPA gained from defensive TOs) but they are still 8th best in success rate allowed that separates out the extra value due to their turnovers. This Thursday they do have concerns at CB with injuries to starter Carlton Davis, rookie Ernie Rakestraw Jr who is on IR and rookie Terrion Arnold, who missed last week vs the Colts. I would expect Arnold to be back but Davis to miss this game. Davis is easily the highest graded CB on the Lions defense (71.5 PFF coverage grade). So that likely leaves veteran CB Amik Robertson in his normal slot role (57.1 coverage grade) with Arnold (51.7) and Kindle Vildor (35.8) as likely starters outside. Robertson has strictly been a slot CB due to his size but Branch and Joseph cover in the slot as well. Maybe they use Robertson some more outside but not sure what they can do. This sets up well for the Bears to attack the outside of the Lions coverage unit.
  • The case for the Bears purely from a modeling standpoint to cover this big number does make sense. However, I do think it is worth noting that having a bad coach like Eberflus and a rookie QB like Caleb Williams having to play a noon game on Thanksgiving is a complete change up in routine and could lead to the Bears not being as prepared as you would like. Its impossible to quantify if or by how much this could impact the game but it does stick in the back of my head that this is certainly not ideal for that type of HC/young QB combo.
  • Caleb and this offense has certainly looked a bit better since the firing of Shane Waldron. They have generated two straight positive EPA offensive games since Thomas Brown took over and posted the single highest EPA offensive game that the Packers defense has allowed all season two weeks ago and the Vikings third highest all season last week. The Bears are using Caleb much more in the run game and in fact he has rushed for 103 yards the last two weeks. I like over Caleb rush yards and to ladder his yardage props. The Lions defense ranks #1 in the league in terms of rate of man-to-man coverage and that has always led to the Lions allowing QBs to run the ball at a much higher rate than typical. They rank 23rd in QB rush yards per game allowed, at just under 24 yards, but, in aggregate, these QBs the Lions have faced have averaged just over 14 rushing yards per game against all other opponents. That +9.5 yards vs expected ranks as 5th most in the league. If we isolate Lions opposing QBs who we actually consider true mobile QBs and have averaged at least 17 yards per game against non-Lions opponents this season- Richardson, Kyler, Baker and Geno, all four of these guys went over their season long averages and all by at least 12 yards or 30%. Even guys like Sam Darnold (39 yards) and Mason Rudolph (29 yards), who are not known as scramblers ran for season highs vs Detroit. Caleb himself has faced some other man heavy opponents like Jacksonville (2nd man heavy defense) and ran for 54 yards in London. Seven different times has Caleb Williams generated a rushing game that ranked within the top four most yards gained in a game vs a defense this season, four times a top two rushing performance. If this game turns into scramble/comeback mode then even higher upside for Williams to exceed this hurdle.
  • Outside of using Caleb more in the run game, with the injuries to the Lions CBs, I think he can attack with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in particular. Allen ranks first on the Bears with a nearly 30% target share vs man defenses this season. In fact, against the 2nd most heavy man defense in the Jags he went for 5-41 and 2 TDs. Allen has led the team the last two games with Brown with 23 targets and 187 air yards. Look for Keenan to potentially have a big game. De’andre Swift has been pretty bad from an efficiency standpoint this season and against a Lions defense that has allowed the 7th lowest ypc to RBs this season and recently slowed down guys like Joe Mixon (25-46) and Jonathan Taylor (11-35), I think Williams will be dropping back a ton on Thursday. On the season, Chicago is 14th in neutral game pass rate, at 58%, but in these last two games after the OC switch, Chicago has thrown the ball on 61% of plays. Since Caleb is scrambling more now too, the true drop back with intent to throw is likely slightly higher as well. Because the Lions are so good at stopping the run, opponents do tend to throw on them a lot more than usual. Lions have allowed the 6th highest opposing pass rate in neutral situations and that is against a schedule of opponents who in aggregate are 23rd vs everyone else. The Titans and Vikings are the only other defenses that rank inside the top 12 in opposing pass rate and Williams threw at least 63% in both games. I expect Chicago to throw a lot here and more than expected. The Bears rank 8th fastest in neutral game pace this season and while they have gone a bit slower in these last two games they still have used no huddle nearly 20% of the time in non-blowout situations. After not exceeding their offensive team total in three straight games prior to the Waldron firing, they have cleared their team total in back to back games under Brown.
  • The Lions should be fine as usual on offense and the Bears defense has fallen off big time of late. Chicago ranks 9th best in both EPA and success rate on the season but since week 9 they rank 20th in EPA and 22nd in success rate. Their run defense has fallen off a cliff and rank 28th in ypc in the last six weeks. Some of that is finally facing better offenses generally but also the loss of DT Andrew Billings in the middle has hurt their run defense a lot. We know the Lions will move the ball and can do it on the ground especially. There is a tad of a question if Jared Goff will struggle vs this Bears Cover 3 defense. He faced a similar defense last week at Indy and was solid but unspectacular. His +0.212 EPA ranked as his 7th best game of the season. He was fine but it was not as if he sliced them up. And when we go back to last season, Goff had his worst game of the last two seasons in Chicago with a -0.305 EPA and 36% success rate. Now some of that was due to the very cold conditions in Chicago but even in their prior home game vs the Bears he generated another negative game (-0.010 EPA) with multiple TOs. His 59% success rate was very good but the TOs really hurt him and he padded some of his stats in their 4th quarter comeback with dump offs to Gibbs. While I dont think he will have problems vs the Bears I do think he may not be as precise as we may be used to.
  • Look for TE Sam LaPorta to potentially finally have a breakout game. The Bears have allowed the 5th highest target share to TEs this season and on an opponent-adjusted basis the 2nd highest yards per target. He has faced the 3rd toughest schedule among TEs when it comes to opposing defenses yards per target. Versus Cover 3 defenses he does have over a 2.0 yards per route figure this season so over his receiving prop makes some sense. I also say that Laporta could be impactful bc WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is banged up and Chicago ranks #1 in the NFL in lowest EPA allowed to slot WRs. ASB only caught 11-98 yards in two games vs the Bears last season. The Bears have been much worst vs outside WR targets as they have allowed the 3rd highest yards per target and 8th highest EPA per target to those WRs. They also rank 5th worst on 20+ deep balls so Jameson Williams could be the top threat for Detroit as well if looking at some DFS pivots or another prop look.
  • I should note that this is a brutal turnaround spot for the Bears who played a tough game last week vs the Vikings and played in OT. Since 2000, teams off OT and then playing on a short week on Thursday are just 3-23 ATS with a -8 ATS margin per game since 2000. We saw this earlier in the season with the Patriots getting demolished by NYJ 23-3. Away teams in this situation are just 2-14 ATS. This short rest off OT has occurred three times in the early Thanksgiving window with those teams going 0-3 ATS with a -8.5 ATS margin. Chicago’s defense was only on the field for 65 plays last week and under 35m of time so its not as if they are suffering from a ton of wear and tear. Just interesting to note.
  • My best guess is that the Bears keeps this semi interesting but the Lions separate in the 3rd quarter with the Bears playing in chase mode late. A 30-20 Lions win is a reasonable baseline.
GAME TRENDS
  • Since 2000, favorites on Thanksgiving, excluding the Cowboys as favorites, are 33-13 ATS (71%). Dallas is just 7-11 ATS as a favorite in that stretch.
  • Dome games on Thanksgiving have gone over the total 57% of the time since 2000. With a total less than 50, games have gone over in 62% of games inside a dome on Thanksgiving
INJURY ANALYSIS

Bears Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Ryan Bates C Dec 8 Concussion Out
Elijah Hicks S Dec 8 Out
Jaquan Brisker S Dec 16 Concussion Injured Reserve
Andrew Billings DT Dec 8 Pectoral Injured Reserve
Bill Murray G Dec 8 Pectoral Injured Reserve
Stephen Carlson TE Dec 8 Collarbone Injured Reserve
Douglas Coleman III S Feb 10 Upper Body Injured Reserve
Patrick Scales LS Dec 8 Back Injured Reserve
Nsimba Webster WR Feb 10 Groin Injured Reserve
Ian Wheeler RB Feb 10 Injured Reserve


Lions Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Taylor Decker OT Dec 5 Knee Out
Carlton Davis III CB Dec 5 Knee Out
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Nov 28 Knee Questionable
David Montgomery RB Nov 28 Shoulder Questionable
Kalif Raymond WR Dec 30 Foot Injured Reserve
Ennis Rakestraw Jr. CB Dec 22 Hamstring Injured Reserve
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Dec 22 Undisclosed Injured Reserve
Alex Anzalone LB Dec 30 Forearm Injured Reserve
Derrick Barnes LB Jan 12 Knee Injured Reserve
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Dec 5 Neck Injured Reserve
Aidan Hutchinson DE Feb 10 Tibia/Fibula Injured Reserve
Kyle Peko DT Feb 10 Pectoral Injured Reserve
Marcus Davenport DE Feb 10 Triceps Injured Reserve
David Bada DT Feb 10 Achilles Injured Reserve
John Cominsky DE Jan 11 Knee Injured Reserve
Antoine Green WR Feb 10 Concussion Injured Reserve
Connor Galvin OT Feb 10 Knee Injured Reserve
Nate Lynn DE Feb 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Netane Muti G Feb 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Michael Badgley PK Feb 10 Hamstring Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


Bears Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Dj Moore Collin Johnson
RWR Rome Odunze Tyler Scott
SWR Keenan Allen Deandre Carter
LT Braxton Jones Larry Borom
LG Teven Jenkins Ryan Bates
C Coleman Shelton Doug Kramer Jr.
RG Matt Pryor
RT Darnell Wright Jake Curhan
TE Cole Kmet Gerald Everett
QB Caleb Williams Tyson Bagent
RB D'Andre Swift Roschon Johnson
Defense
LDE Montez Sweat Darrell Taylor
LDT Gervon Dexter Sr. Chris Williams
RDT Byron Cowart Zacch Pickens
RDE Demarcus Walker Austin Booker
WLB T.J. Edwards Amen Ogbongbemiga
MLB Tremaine Edmunds Jack Sanborn
LCB Tyrique Stevenson Ameer Speed
SS Kevin Byard Iii Tarvarius Moore
FS Elijah Hicks Jonathan Owens
RCB Jaylon Johnson Terell Smith
NB Kyler Gordon Josh Blackwell




Lions Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Tim Patrick Allen Robinson
RWR Jameson Williams Kalif Raymond
SWR Amon-Ra St. Brown
LT Taylor Decker Dan Skipper
LG Graham Glasgow Kayode Awosika
C Frank Ragnow Michael Niese
RG Kevin Zeitler Christian Mahogany
RT Penei Sewell Colby Sorsdal
TE Sam Laporta Brock Wright
QB Jared Goff Hendon Hooker
RB Jahmyr Gibbs David Montgomery
Defense
LDE Josh Paschal James Houston
NT Dj Reader Pat O'Connor
DT Alim Mcneill Levi Onwuzurike
RDE Za'Darius Smith Trevor Nowaske
WLB Malcolm Rodriguez Ezekiel Turner
MLB Jack Campbell Ben Niemann
LCB Carlton Davis Khalil Dorsey
SS Kerby Joseph Loren Strickland
FS Brian Branch Brandon Joseph
RCB Terrion Arnold Kindle Vildor
NB Amik Robertson Emmanuel Moseley




THURSDAY 4:30 PM EST
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5, 37.5)
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
NYG (O) DAL (D) DAL (O) NYG (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 26 19 29 26
Explosive Pass% 32 25 26 26
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 16 32 29 27
Explosive Rush% 8 25 30 26
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 20 30 20 16
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Tommy DeVito Cooper Rush
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure NA 26
OL Pressure 28 22
Opp DL Pressure 6 14
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz NA 36
Opp Blitz Rate 5 12
Team Ranks
NYG DAL
Net Success 25 27
Offense Pace 22 4
Neutral Pass% 24 4
TO Margin 29 30
OFF TO EPA 26 31
DEF TO EPA 27 23
ANALYSIS
  • This is as bad of a game as it gets on Thanksgiving. Probably a great time to have dinner, as I know my family eats right around 4pm so its perfect. Nonetheless lets discuss this game.
  • Lets start with Dallas in a really tough situational spot, playing their 3rd game in 11 days (MNF-Sunday-Thursday). This is actually the 4th time a team has been in this spot this season and so far they have gone 1-2 ATS and SU but the one win was the Jets in week 3 when the Patriots were also off a tough spot being off OT and a short week. Since 2000, these teams are just 4-8 ATS (33%) and a -3.5 ATS margin. I am not sure with a sample so small if this impacts this line at all.
  • I do think there is some value on the Giants up over a FG but then again, I am not confident I can accurately price Drew Lock behind this crappy OL vs the one stable known quantity in this game, the Dallas pass rush, and feel comfortable.
  • Yes, Lock is an upgrade from Devito but we are talking about the tallest midget here. If you want to say Devito is maybe the worst starting QB of the last few years you are probably right. But Lock is very bad as well and the fact that the Giants went to Devito over Lock after seeing him all season and declaring that Lock already definitely wont be back next season does say a lot. Unless it is an obvious tank job (which could very well be the case) and the Giants know Lock can give them a real shot to win games. But not only is Lock not very good but he is starting on a short week. Its not as if he has had a full week of starter reps in practice either. Finding out 1-2 days before a game on the road is far from ideal.
  • Lock does rank 38th in EPA since the beginning of 2021 but that puts him in the Minshew, Heinecke range. And in his two starts last year with Seattle, he generated two games with success rates under 39%. He will make the occasional throw that looks elite but he is Will Levis lite from a turnover and sack perspective, which is gross. His 5.5% turnover worthy play rate ranked 8th worst last year and he also took six sacks on just 85 drop backs. What scares me about upgrading Lock vs Devito too much in this game is not only the short week with minimal starter reps but he is doing it against a really good pass rush and does not have three really top notch WRs like he did in Seattle. This offense is a big downgrade from his surrounding cast last year in Seattle. RT Jermaine Eluemunor is out for this game which means both starting Tackles are now gone when you also consider Andrew Thomas has been missing for a while. Chris Hubbard and Evan Neal are the Giants tackles who have to block Micah Parsons and company. Lock is not known for getting the ball out quick which could spell doom and end drives early.
  • He only had 13 drop backs in preseason but was 4/10 for 17 yards (1.7 ypa), threw a bad INT and took a sack before getting hurt. Then in minimal drop backs so far this season, he has gone 4/9 for 9 yards (1.0 ypa), took a sack and while he has not turned it over has two turnover worthy plays on those minimal drop backs. That makes him 8/19 for 26 yards (1.4 ypa), 1 INT and 2 sacks. Again, tiny samples but his career resume is bad so it is not like he deserves any benefit of the doubt.
  • The Giants have to lean on their run game with Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary. Dallas’ defense has allowed 4.6 ypc, which is bottom 10 in the league, but they have also faced the single toughest schedule of opposing RBs this season. One caveat is the Dallas is much better defending runs outside the tackles than up the middle where the Giants run more than anyone in the NFL. 71% of Singletary and 62% of Traceys carries are between the tackles. Dallas has allowed the third highest ypc to RBs up the middle along with bottom 10 yards before and after contact per rush. Tracey has been excellent of late, outside of the back breaking fumbles in each of the last two games. He has run for 100+ in three of the last seven games and has averaged 79.7 yards per game and 5.4 ypc in that stretch. He has generated those numbers against a set of defenses that have allowed just 4.5 ypc on the season to RBs. He has exceeded expectations when he has gone up against mediocre to poor run defenses like Dallas but has to be in a good game state to capitalize. If the Giants can attack Dallas up the middle they can convert some drives and Tracey can produce a big game. But otherwise, relying on a bunch of Lock drop backs and likely forcing to Malik Nabers could be a problem. We will see if Tre’von Diggs plays on Thursday but getting back Duron Bland last week was big for Dallas to go with slot CB Jourdan Lewis. Maybe Lock and his big arm can hit a few deep shots with Darius Slayton against the Cowboys #3 CB if Diggs is out. That could be worth a prop look. There is likely not going to be any sort of prop offered on this but I do think the Giants are going to want to feed Nabers early and some sort of Nabers running play could be in the works early.
  • Cooper Rush gets another start for Dallas this week and he continues to throw the ball very quick and short while never taking any deep shots. His 2.3 seconds time to throw is quickest in the NFL. That isnt great in most weeks but probably is smart against this Giants elite pass rush. That limits Ceedee Lambs upside in this game and he will have to really create after the catch. Otherwise, its going to be a ton of short crossers and hitches. Since he became the starter, his EPA and success rates have increased each week and last week finished +0.231 EPA and a 53% success rate. He is still the 2nd worst QB in the NFL by EPA since week 10 but there are glimpses there and he did have to face two of the best defenses in the NFL in his first two starts v PHI and HOU. But the quick throws help here and the Giants pass defense has allowed the 3rd highest EPA on those quick throws (<2.5 seconds). Rush wont have Jake Ferguson likely again this week so look for TE Luke Schoonmaker to get continued looks. He has seen 14 targets and 112 air yards in these last two games. However, the Giants rank #1 in terms of lowest target share allowed to TEs as teams have attacked elsewhere. Maybe Kevonte Turpin can create in special teams or off a quick slant like he did vs the Texans bc otherwise this offense is a slog to get down the field. The good news is that WR Brandin Cooks is playing after missing the last month+ on IR so he can hopefully help stretch the field. The Cowboys are throwing at an above average rate in neutral situations with Rush and vs teams that have typically been run on a lot, their opponent adjusted pass rate is top 10 level.
  • Dallas should be able to run the ball this week and Rico Dowdle broke out a bit last week vs Washington after facing some tough defenses prior to that. Since he took over as the full time RB, Dowdle has averaged 4.6 ypc and has gained 242 yards on 53 attempts. The Giants rank 31st in ypc allowed to RBs at 5.4, rank 31st in yards allowed prior to contact and have allowed the most 10+ runs on the season. The Giants have allowed the 2nd highest target share to RBs in the league and are bottom 12 in yards per target. Dowdle has seen exactly 9% of targets in each of Rush’s starts.
  • The difference in this game could just end up being the leg of Dallas kicker Brandon Aubrey vs the inconsistency of the Giants FG unit. Graham Gano is fine but he is 37 years old and does not have the lef nearly as long as Aubrey. Once Dallas gets past midfield they have a realistic chance of 3 points.
GAME TRENDS
  • Lock is 13-9 ATS as a starter in his career, 12-7 ATS as an underdog
  • Dallas is 10-14 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2000 but just 2-11 ATS in their last 13
INJURY ANALYSIS

Giants Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Jermaine Eluemunor G Dec 8 Out
Tommy DeVito QB Nov 28 Forearm Questionable
Armon Watts DT Dec 29 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Deonte Banks CB Nov 28 Ribs Questionable
Azeez Ojulari LB Dec 29 Toe Injured Reserve
Andrew Thomas OT Feb 10 Head Injured Reserve
Gunner Olszewski WR Nov 28 Groin Injured Reserve
Dyontae Johnson LB Nov 28 Ankle Injured Reserve
Austin Schlottmann C Nov 28 Leg Injured Reserve
Jonathan Sutherland S Feb 10 Undisclosed Injured Reserve
Timmy Horne DT Feb 10 Achilles Injured Reserve
Elijah Riley S Feb 10 Concussion Injured Reserve


Cowboys Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Zack Martin G Dec 9 Ankle Out
Nick Vigil LB Nov 28 Foot Questionable
Asim Richards OT Dec 29 Ankle Injured Reserve
Marshawn Kneeland DE Nov 28 Knee Doubtful
Trevon Diggs CB Nov 28 Groin Questionable
Eric Kendricks LB Nov 28 Groin/Shoulder Questionable
Caelen Carson CB Dec 29 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Jake Ferguson TE Dec 9 Concussion Out
Markquese Bell S Feb 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Dak Prescott QB Feb 10 Hamstring Injured Reserve
Sam Williams DE Feb 10 Knee Injured Reserve
DeMarcus Lawrence DE Nov 28 Foot Injured Reserve
Amani Oruwariye CB Nov 28 Back Injured Reserve
John Stephens Jr. TE Feb 10 Knee Injured Reserve
Nathan Thomas OT Feb 10 Undisclosed Injured Reserve
Earl Bostick Jr. OT Feb 10 Leg Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


Giants Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Malik Nabers Bryce Ford-Wheaton
RWR Darius Slayton Jalin Hyatt
SWR Wan'Dale Robinson Ihmir Smith-Marsette
LT Chris Hubbard Joshua Ezeudu
LG Jon Runyan Jake Kubas
C John Michael Schmitz Jr.
RG Greg Van Roten Aaron Stinnie
RT Jermaine Eluemunor Evan Neal
TE Theo Johnson Chris Manhertz
QB Tommy Devito Drew Lock
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. Devin Singletary
Defense
DE Rakeem Nuñez-Roches Elijah Chatman
NT Dexter Lawrence Ii Jordon Riley
DT D.J. Davidson Armon Watts
LOLB Brian Burns Patrick Johnson
LILB Bobby Okereke Matthew Adams
RILB Micah Mcfadden Darius Muasau
ROLB Kayvon Thibodeaux Azeez Ojulari
LCB Cor'Dale Flott Art Green
SS Tyler Nubin Isaiah Simmons
FS Jason Pinnock Dane Belton
RCB Deonte Banks Adoree' Jackson
NB Dru Phillips




Cowboys Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Jalen Brooks Ryan Flournoy
RWR Jalen Tolbert Jonathan Mingo
SWR Ceedee Lamb Kavontae Turpin
LT Tyler Guyton Asim Richards
LG Tyler Smith T.J. Bass
C Cooper Beebe
RG Zack Martin Brock Hoffman
RT Terence Steele Matt Waletzko
TE Jake Ferguson Luke Schoonmaker
QB Cooper Rush Trey Lance
RB Rico Dowdle Ezekiel Elliott
FB Hunter Luepke
Defense
LDE Chauncey Golston Marshawn Kneeland
NT Mazi Smith Linval Joseph
DT Osa Odighizuwa Carlos Watkins
RDE Micah Parsons Carl Lawson
WLB Marist Liufau Buddy Johnson
MLB Eric Kendricks Damone Clark
SLB Demarvion Overshown Nick Vigil
LCB Trevon Diggs Josh Butler
SS Malik Hooker Israel Mukuamu
FS Donovan Wilson Juanyeh Thomas
RCB Daron Bland Caelen Carson
NB Jourdan Lewis




THURSDAY 8:20 PM EST
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5, 47.5)
RANKINGS
Pass/Rush Ranks
MIA (O) GB (D) GB (O) MIA (D)
Passing
Pass Efficiency 16 8 7 12
Explosive Pass% 27 23 3 9
Rushing
Rush Efficiency 31 16 10 10
Explosive Rush% 9 19 4 24
OL/DL Adj Line Yards (FO) 26 17 8 14
QB v. Pressure Ranks
Tua Tagovailoa Jordan Love
Pressure
PFF Grade v. Pressure 33 31
OL Pressure 3 8
Opp DL Pressure 17 25
Blitz
PFF Grade v. Blitz 28 33
Opp Blitz Rate 25 18
Team Ranks
MIA GB
Net Success 14 23
Offense Pace 19 25
Neutral Pass% 29 32
TO Margin 21 8
OFF TO EPA 21 17
DEF TO EPA 18 7
ANALYSIS
  • Easily the best game of the next two days but I probably have the lowest edge from side/total/prop perspectives. Miami has been dynamite since the return of Tua, especially on offense while the Packers continue to sludge along leaning on monumental turnover luck and a soft schedule. Oh and if you have not heard it is supposed to be in the 20s tonight in Lambeau. Looks like 10-15mph sustained winds and gusts up to 25mph. That is borderline impactful but I dont believe this is a major impact to the Dolphins from an offensive perspective due to how they have been so reliant on short, quick throws anyway but maybe on defense it effects their ability to tackle? Not easy to quantify. The Packers could be more effected as Love is very reliant on 20+ yard throws down the field.
  • Since Tua has come back to the lineup, the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU. The offense ranks 5th in EPA and 2nd in success rate in this stretch. Tua ranks #1 in EPA per drop back and 8th best in completion percentage over expected since his return. He has been uber efficient, throwing the most in the NFL in under 2.5 seconds (20 att/gm) but has also earned the highest EPA per drop back on those quick throws. In other words it is working beautifully. His top targets continue to rotate between RB De’von Achane, TE Jonnu Smith and even last week WR Jaylen Waddle came off the milk carton missing persons report with a big game. Interestingly, Tyreek Hill continues to be more decoy than top explosive weapon but again stick with what works.
  • Jonnu Smith has been a revelation this year and was one of my favorite under the radar pickups in the offseason. He has always been a yac merchant but never really got the full time TE role. He has been excellent this year and in the last two games has gone for 6-101-2 and 9-87-1. The Packers do vary their coverages but lately have been using a high rate of Cover 2 and Cover 3. Jonnu leads the Dolphins in target share and yardage vs Cover 2 and vs Cover 3 ranks #1 in the NFL among TEs in fantasy points per route. In a cold game where Tua will likely continue to get the ball out quickly, expect Smith to be a big part of the offense yet again. We could also see Achane heavily involved in the pass game yet again. Only the Saints have a higher target share to RBs since Tua came back than Miami (25%). The Packers have allowed the 5th highest rate of targets on an opponent adjusted basis in the league.
  • This Packers defense really is not that good and while their EPA sits 8th best but their success rate allowed is 26th and 29th vs the pass. That extreme gap is strictly due to TOs and 3rd down defense. GB ranks 2nd in most EPA gained off TOs this season and their 22 TOs forced is tied for tops in the league. If you exclude drives that end in a TO, the Packers defense is 22nd in percent of drives that have resulted in an opponent either gaining two first downs or a TD. On 3rd downs no team has allowed a lower EPA than GB and it’s the lowest vs expectations as well. They are allowing just 3.9 yards on 3rd downs on an average 6.6 yards to go. They have also created a TO on 5.4% of those 3rd downs, 3rd highest in the league. Because of all this turnover luck and 3rd down success, the Packers defense has the 11th widest gap in expected points per drive allowed vs actual. The Dolphins rank #1 in the NFL on offense on 3rd downs since Tuas return which makes this a fascinating matchup of who can win on 3rd downs. Miami has done a good job not turning it over with Tua so if the Dolphins can just limit their TOs, they should be able to move the football just fine tonight. With CB Jaire Alexander out again, the Dolphins have good matchups all over the field.
  • The Packers offense has been feast or famine this season as they rank 9th in EPA but 15th in success rate. The offense has been explosive, ranking 2nd in the NFL. But Jordan Love has not looked like himself so far this season. He is 12th in EPA, 16th in success rate but just 25th in completion % vs expectations. The GB pass rate numbers are a little skewed bc of the run heavy Malik Willis games and on the season rank 32nd in pass rate in neutral game situations (49%). In Love starts it is a tad higher at 52%. But they will clearly lean on the run game then mix in extreme deep shots. Love ranks #1 in most deep passes in the league but the Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 7th lowest EPA on those deep shots. They also use screen passes at a top 10 rate and are 6th in success rate on those screens. However, Miami defends the screen well, 4th best in the league. With the potential for heavy gusts of wind at times, the screen game could be an important factor for GB. WR Romeo Doubs is out so expect more of Christian Watson if they throw deep and Dontayvian Wicks in the intermediate area of the field.
  • I expect the Packers to lean on Josh Jacobs and company in the ground game. The Dolphins are essentially a league average level run defense but they have been a bit more susceptible on interior runs. Miami has allowed the 9th highest ypc (4.6) on runs between the tackles. It’s a big dichotomy on what happens pre and post interior run however. They have allowed the 3rd lowest yards prior to contact on those runs but have allowed the highest yards after contact in the NFL. That could be a tough look against Jacobs, who has the 2nd most carries in the league on runs up the middle and ranks 3rd in ypc among RBs with at least 50 interior attempts. Jacobs is also 3rd in the NFL in yards after contact per rush. He has also faced two other run defenses that rank bottom 10 in yards after contact allowed- IND and HOU, and Jacobs went for 32-151 and 12-76 in those games. If the cold weather also effects the Dolphins tackling, Jacobs can really extend some runs after contact.
  • I tend to think this total is a tad too high that involves a Miami team that throws short so often and a GB offense that likely cant rely on the deep ball if the wind picks up. But not sure either defense will get that many stops either. Likely a toss up game in the 20s.
GAME TRENDS
INJURY ANALYSIS

Dolphins Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
Terron Armstead OT Nov 28 Knee Questionable
Tyus Bowser LB Dec 8 Knee Out
Anthony Walker Jr. LB Dec 8 Hamstring Out
Kendall Fuller CB Dec 8 Concussion Out
Bradley Chubb LB Nov 28 Knee Out
Tanner Conner TE Dec 15 Knee Injured Reserve
Austin Jackson G Feb 10 Head Injured Reserve
Tyler Huntley QB Nov 28 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Braxton Berrios WR Nov 28 Knee Injured Reserve
Blake Ferguson LS Nov 28 Personal Out
Jaelan Phillips LB Feb 10 Knee Injured Reserve
Grant DuBose WR Nov 28 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Cameron Goode LB Nov 28 Kneecap Out
Anthony Schwartz WR Feb 10 Knee Injured Reserve
Cam Brown LB Feb 10 Undisclosed Injured Reserve
Grayson Murphy LB Feb 10 Knee Injured Reserve
Kion Smith OT Feb 10 Injured Reserve
Tahj Washington WR Feb 10 Undisclosed Injured Reserve


Packers Injury Report
Player Pos ReturnDate Injury Status
John FitzPatrick TE Nov 28 Back Questionable
Isaiah McDuffie LB Nov 28 Ankle Questionable
Edgerrin Cooper LB Dec 5 Hamstring Out
Jaire Alexander CB Dec 5 Knee Out
Romeo Doubs WR Dec 5 Concussion Out
Josh Myers C Nov 28 Questionable
MarShawn Lloyd RB Dec 23 Ankle/Hamstring/Appendix Out
Jordan Morgan OT Dec 15 Shoulder Injured Reserve
Luke Musgrave TE Nov 28 Ankle Injured Reserve
Tyler Davis TE Feb 10 Shoulder Injured Reserve
AJ Dillon RB Feb 10 Neck Injured Reserve

DEPTH CHARTS


Dolphins Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Jaylen Waddle Odell Beckham Jr.
RWR Tyreek Hill River Cracraft
SWR Malik Washington Dee Eskridge
LT Terron Armstead Patrick Paul
LG Robert Jones Isaiah Wynn
C Aaron Brewer Andrew Meyer
RG Liam Eichenberg
RT Kendall Lamm
TE Jonnu Smith Julian Hill
QB Tua Tagovailoa Skylar Thompson
RB De'Von Achane Raheem Mostert
FB Alec Ingold
Defense
LDE Calais Campbell
NT Benito Jones Neil Farrell
RDE Zach Sieler Da'Shawn Hand
LOLB Tyus Bowser Chop Robinson
LILB Jordyn Brooks Duke Riley
RILB Anthony Walker Jr. Channing Tindall
ROLB Emmanuel Ogbah Quinton Bell
LCB Kendall Fuller Cam Smith
SS Jordan Poyer Elijah Campbell
FS Jevón Holland Marcus Maye
RCB Jalen Ramsey Storm Duck
NB Kader Kohou Siran Neal




Packers Depth Chart
Offense
LWR Romeo Doubs Malik Heath
RWR Christian Watson Dontayvion Wicks
SWR Jayden Reed Bo Melton
LT Rasheed Walker Andre Dillard
LG Elgton Jenkins
C Josh Myers Jacob Monk
RG Sean Rhyan
RT Zach Tom Kadeem Telfort
TE Tucker Kraft Ben Sims
QB Jordan Love Malik Willis
RB Josh Jacobs Chris Brooks
Defense
LDE Rashan Gary Kingsley Enagbare
LDT Devonte Wyatt T.J. Slaton
RDT Kenny Clark Karl Brooks
RDE Lukas Van Ness Arron Mosby
WLB Quay Walker Eric Wilson
MLB Edgerrin Cooper Isaiah Mcduffie
LCB Jaire Alexander Carrington Valentine
SS Xavier Mckinney Zayne Anderson
FS Evan Williams Kitan Oladapo
RCB Keisean Nixon Eric Stokes
NB Javon Bullard Corey Ballentine




Matchup Rankings

Click on the buttons inside the tabbed menu

Click on columns to sort by rank

Blended 4Q -> 1 = overperformed, 32 = underperformed

Success Rate EPA/Play Early Down EPA/Play 3rd Down Over Exp Drive Success ex TO Drives Turnover EPA Fumble Lost EPA Interception EPA
1 8 16 1 2 20 7 26
2 3 2 4 11 7 2 18
3 1 1 2 3 9 24 3
4 5 7 3 4 12 6 19
5 14 10 31 9 15 19 14
6 12 15 23 6 19 10 23
7 4 4 8 1 2 5 5
8 2 3 12 8 5 3 11
9 11 8 14 7 16 28 8
10 10 9 7 13 22 21 21
11 6 5 5 9 6 17 4
12 7 11 6 14 8 16 7
13 13 13 16 15 29 26 24
14 18 17 9 16 27 13 32
15 9 6 24 4 17 1 27
16 24 22 10 12 21 29 10
17 26 26 18 26 26 30 13
18 17 14 22 24 10 12 12
19 20 19 21 21 11 18 9
20 19 24 17 19 18 23 15
21 22 20 29 23 4 11 6
22 27 28 27 32 25 25 17
23 23 12 30 25 14 15 16
24 28 23 28 30 24 9 29
25 29 31 26 20 31 31 25
26 32 32 19 22 32 32 30
27 16 21 15 17 3 14 2
28 15 18 11 28 1 8 1
29 30 29 25 31 30 27 31
30 21 27 13 18 13 4 20
31 25 25 20 27 28 20 28
32 31 30 32 29 23 22 22

DFS Points Allowed

Thanksgiving DFS Values (Draftkings)

Player Stats & DFS Analysis by Position Groups

Contribution from Amr Gabr

On a Per Game Basis

Draftkings Salaries

OWN% = Projected Ownership on Draftkings

(Sortable Tables)

 

Thanksgiving DFS Research Tool: *Click Here*

Quarterbacks

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G PASS ATT CMP% PASS YDS PASS TDS INT SACKS AIR YDS RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
J.Goff DET CHI 6500 19.6% 16.7 11 27.82 72.9% 251.0 1.8 0.8 1.9 188.2 2.2 3.5 0.0
J.Love GB MIA 6300 19.0% 17.2 9 31.11 61.8% 249.3 2.0 1.2 1.1 291.1 2.0 5.3 0.1
T.Tagovailoa MIA @GB 6000 12.8% 16.6 7 33.14 73.3% 251.4 1.9 0.6 1.9 185.1 1.7 5.9 0.0
C.Williams CHI @DET 5300 28.8% 14.9 11 33.82 62.6% 214.2 1.0 0.5 4.0 264.3 5.0 30.8 0.0
C.Rush DAL NYG 4800 12.6% 6.2 7 21.29 61.1% 116.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 136.9 1.6 1.4 0.0
D.Lock NYG @DAL 4500 7.1% 0.8 2 4.50 44.4% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 35.5 0.5 6.5 0.0

Top Plays:

Caleb Willams ($5300)- Caleb is likely to be at the top of most owned in large tournaments. He is cheap and his legs have given him a high floor even if his passing efficiency isnt there. He is coming off of a 340 yard, 2 TD performance and nearly 30 DK points. In a potential to be in catch up mode in the 2nd half he is the more ideal play.

Tua Tagovailoa ($6000)- Most people are likely to avoid Tua bc of the perceived poor play in cold weather but there is not likely to be much wind and I think he will be fine. He has relied heavily on the short passing game anyway so the cold should not effect short, quick throws. He does not give any rushing upside but the Miami offense has been ultra efficient lately and can explode at any time. Ever since he came back from his latest concussion has been a new QB. Since Week 8, he leads all QBs in EPA/Play.

 

Runningbacks

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS FMBL REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR
D.Achane MIA @GB 7700 37.0% 17.3 11 12.0 51.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 5.0 33.9 0.45 −4.2 39.7 15.9% −2.1%
J.Gibbs DET CHI 7500 38.6% 18.1 11 14.0 80.5 0.9 0.0 2.4 2.9 22.3 0.00 −1.3 28.6 12.4% −0.8%
J.Jacobs GB MIA 7000 39.1% 16.5 11 18.4 85.8 0.6 0.2 2.1 2.7 16.9 0.09 −1.6 20.4 10.1% −0.8%
D.Montgomery DET CHI 6500 27.5% 16.3 11 13.2 57.5 1.0 0.2 2.2 2.4 21.9 0.00 0.4 22.1 8.7% 0.2%
D.Swift CHI @DET 6000 18.5% 14.3 11 15.3 60.5 0.4 0.1 2.8 3.3 25.3 0.00 −0.5 24.9 11.0% −0.2%
T.Tracy NYG @DAL 5800 28.3% 9.9 11 10.5 53.4 0.3 0.2 2.0 2.5 13.2 0.00 −0.8 13.2 8.2% −0.4%
R.Dowdle DAL NYG 5500 48.1% 11.2 10 11.2 48.8 0.0 0.2 2.9 3.7 18.4 0.30 2.1 18.5 9.4% 0.7%
D.Singletary NYG @DAL 4800 0.2% 8.1 9 8.9 36.2 0.3 0.2 1.8 2.0 11.0 0.00 −4.3 16.2 6.9% −1.9%
R.Mostert MIA @GB 4700 0.1% 6.2 8 7.5 27.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.6 12.8 0.00 0.6 11.8 6.5% 0.4%
R.Johnson CHI @DET 4500 0.1% 7.7 9 5.3 15.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 1.7 9.8 0.00 2.3 7.8 7.0% 1.2%
E.Elliott DAL NYG 4400 0.1% 4.4 10 5.8 18.5 0.2 0.1 1.0 1.3 5.6 0.00 −2.7 8.4 4.6% −1.2%
E.Wilson GB MIA 4300 0.2% 5.2 11 6.0 28.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.1 4.2 0.09 −4.7 7.8 5.3% −2.5%
J.Wright MIA @GB 4200 0.1% 2.4 10 5.9 24.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.00 0.1 0.0 3.1% 0.3%
C.Brooks GB MIA 4000 0.3% 3.2 6 2.8 10.7 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.3 9.5 0.00 −1.2 11.5 7.8% −0.9%

Top Plays:

Rico Dowdle ($5500)- Dowdle is the best value on the board at RB with a modest price tag while the clear bell cow for a Dallas team that is a 3+ point favorite. He faces a NYG run defense that ranks 31st in ypc allowed and 31st in target share to RBs. Just makes too much sense.
 
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7500)- Gibbs is the most explosive of all the RBs on Thursday. He is as effective in the pass game as the run game. The Bears have allowed the 7th highest target share to RBs. In the last six weeks, the Bears run defense ranks 28th in ypc to a below average schedule of opposing RBs.
 
De’von Achane ($7700)- Achane is as consistent as it gets at RB and has scored 20+ DK points in four of the five games since Tua has been back. He has seen at least four targets in every game as well.
 
Josh Jacobs ($7000)– You can read more in the GB/MIA matchup section above but Jacobs has the 2nd most carries in between the tackles in the league and has the 3rd highest yards after contact as well. Miami is bottom 10 in ypc allowed on inside runs and has allowed the highest yards after contact in the league. With the potential for some gusty winds, we may see the Packers rely heavily on the run tonight and Jacobs the main beneficiary.

Wide Receivers

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
A.St. Brown DET CHI 8000 33.5% 18.5 11 6.5 7.7 67.9 0.82 58.1 22.4 28.3% 30.2% 0.1 −0.4 0.0
C.Lamb DAL NYG 7300 41.7% 17.5 11 7.0 10.7 76.5 0.36 84.0 32.1 27.3% 29.0% 1.2 6.3 0.0
M.Nabers NYG @DAL 7100 29.2% 16.9 9 7.4 11.4 74.6 0.33 121.4 23.1 35.8% 49.4% 0.4 −0.2 0.0
T.Hill MIA @GB 6900 24.7% 11.7 11 4.5 6.6 51.9 0.27 73.1 18.5 21.1% 36.0% 0.6 4.3 0.0
J.Williams DET CHI 6100 12.9% 13.0 9 3.2 5.3 66.9 0.44 75.4 32.9 18.3% 34.6% 0.7 4.2 0.0
J.Reed GB MIA 5700 27.6% 13.5 11 3.7 4.7 60.8 0.36 39.5 27.9 16.8% 15.3% 1.1 9.5 0.1
D.Moore CHI @DET 5600 32.8% 12.7 11 4.9 7.3 51.5 0.36 59.5 28.4 23.0% 23.5% 0.6 3.3 0.0
J.Waddle MIA @GB 5400 13.7% 9.9 11 3.7 5.1 49.8 0.18 47.5 15.9 16.2% 23.4% 0.3 0.5 0.0
K.Allen CHI @DET 5100 37.1% 10.4 9 4.3 7.9 40.9 0.33 71.6 13.3 26.7% 31.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
R.Odunze CHI @DET 5000 20.9% 8.9 11 3.5 6.4 47.1 0.09 86.5 16.5 20.1% 34.1% 0.3 1.4 0.0
C.Watson GB MIA 4900 23.0% 8.0 9 2.2 3.8 42.6 0.22 68.8 10.6 12.5% 24.3% 0.2 0.0 0.0
W.Robinson NYG @DAL 4700 13.0% 10.8 11 5.5 8.1 40.1 0.18 35.1 20.8 25.1% 14.7% 0.3 1.6 0.0
B.Cooks DAL NYG 4500 1.7% 6.1 4 2.2 4.8 22.8 0.25 61.0 4.0 12.8% 20.2% 0.5 0.5 0.0
D.Slayton NYG @DAL 4400 0.3% 8.6 10 3.2 5.2 46.9 0.10 65.9 8.4 16.1% 27.9% 0.1 1.1 0.0
D.Wicks GB MIA 4200 18.7% 5.7 11 1.5 4.2 19.7 0.36 56.5 6.5 14.8% 21.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Tolbert DAL NYG 3800 3.3% 9.3 11 3.4 5.2 37.3 0.36 63.9 7.4 13.2% 22.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Patrick DET CHI 3500 3.5% 5.0 9 2.1 2.6 28.7 0.00 27.8 9.9 9.3% 14.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
K.Turpin DAL NYG 3300 0.9% 8.0 9 2.3 3.6 30.6 0.22 32.8 16.1 8.5% 10.4% 0.6 1.6 0.0
O.Beckham MIA @GB 3200 0.1% 1.9 6 1.2 2.7 7.5 0.00 22.2 2.0 8.7% 11.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Melton GB MIA 3100 0.5% 2.0 8 0.6 1.5 9.1 0.00 30.2 0.8 5.2% 11.0% 0.8 4.9 0.0
J.Brooks DAL NYG 3100 0.1% 2.6 9 1.0 3.0 16.4 0.00 42.4 3.9 7.7% 14.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

CeeDee Lamb ($7300) – Lamb has seen 10+ targets in all three Rush starts. And this Giants pass defense is the worst of the opponents so far. His route tree is at a  much lower ADOT with Rush but the volume is always there.

Keenan Allen ($5100)- Allen has dominated vs man defenses this year and the last two games with new OC Thomas Brown has led the team in targets. The Lions are a totally different animal but rank #1 in rate of man to man coverage. Allen broke out with a 2 TD game against the team that runs the 2nd most man coverage this year in Jacksonville. Maybe he can repeat?

Christian Watson ($4900)- With Romeo Doubs out, many will look to Dontayvian Wicks and I get it, but Watson offers much more upside. He is one game removed from a 150-yard game v MIN. He also led the Packers in snaps and routes run last week. *NOTE*- keep an eye on the weather prior to kickoff. If winds do look heavier than expected you can swap for Wicks who is a more intermediate option.

Tim Patrick ($3500)- Wanted to find a dirt cheap option at WR and Patrick fits the bill. Khalif Raymond is out for this game and ASB is hobbled and the Bears are elite vs slot WRs. Jameson Williams has a chance to hit a big play or two but for his price I am not sure he will pay off. That leaves Patrick as the #2 outside WR who gets a much easier matchup than Jaylen Johnson at CB. The Bears have allowed the 4th lowest yardage per game to #1 WRs but the 4th most to #2 WRs. His target share jumps from just 6% vs man to 16% vs zone and that is what the Bears run a lot of. His 1.72 yards per route vs zone is solid and while he is not likely to have a huge game, is a nice price for his likely outcomes.

 

Tight Ends

PLAYER TEAM OPP SALARY OWN% FPTS G REC TGTS REC YDS REC TDS REC AIR YDS REC YAC TGT SHR AIR YD SHR RUSH ATT RUSH YDS RUSH TDS
J.Smith MIA @GB 4300 36.5% 11.4 11 4.4 5.7 48.6 0.36 30.9 27.9 18.2% 15.2% 0.2 −0.1 0.0
S.LaPorta DET CHI 4100 28.4% 8.4 10 2.8 3.8 38.5 0.30 25.0 20.8 14.1% 13.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Kraft GB MIA 3700 19.5% 9.7 11 2.7 3.8 36.5 0.55 20.0 25.8 13.5% 7.7% 0.2 0.4 0.0
C.Kmet CHI @DET 3600 19.9% 10.1 10 3.9 4.7 42.2 0.30 36.1 16.1 15.1% 14.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0
L.Schoonmaker DAL NYG 3400 12.1% 6.6 6 2.8 4.2 27.8 0.17 26.2 11.2 10.1% 8.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0
T.Johnson NYG @DAL 2900 6.2% 6.4 9 2.7 4.2 30.8 0.11 29.2 13.3 12.6% 12.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0
B.Spann-Ford DAL NYG 2700 0.3% 3.3 5 1.6 2.6 17.2 0.00 16.2 10.4 6.3% 5.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0
J.Hill MIA @GB 2500 0.2% 2.3 8 1.2 2.0 10.1 0.00 14.0 5.9 6.0% 6.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0

Top Plays:

Jonnu Smith ($4300)– Jonnu will be the highest owned of the day at TE but he has been on a great run since Tua has been back. He is coming off 31 and 23 DK point games the last two weeks and has shown his explosive capabilities. His 28% target share last week ranked 3rd among all TEs. The Packers rank 26th in target share allowed to TEs. The Packers also have used Cover 2 shells at the 6th highest rate over the last five games (h/t @benlinsey_) in which Jonnu leads the Dolphins in receiving yards and target rate (27%).
 
Sam LaPorta ($4100)-LaPorta has struggled this year but the Bears rank bottom three in both opponent adjusted target share and yards per target to TEs. With ASB banged up, we may see Goff get LaPorta more confidence against this defense.
 

Theo Johnson ($2900)- Could have easily gone Schoonmaker here but Theo is cheaper and much lower expected ownership. Theo is a great athlete and with a QB who can actually get him the ball down the seam, he has major upside with Lock. Dallas is 4th in terms of lowest adjusted target share allowed to TEs this year but 24th in yards per target.

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