2023 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

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Disclaimer: I will post selections that I have personally taken at the time I take them. However, my personal picks are not intended for people to blindly follow, it’s just to show full transparency. I expect subscribers to use the information and data on the site to help better inform their own selections for wagers, pools, DFS , etc. I am prepared to lose many of the outrights and top 10s that I post. There is absolutely no guarantee of positive results.

Course Details

East Course, Oak Hill Country Club, Rochester, New York

Par 70

Length: 7,394 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club has hosted 6 Major Championships- U.S. Open in 1956, 1968, 1989 and the PGA Championship in 1980, 2003, 2013. This PGA Championship will be the first event since the course was renovated to feel and look more like an original Donald Ross course. The course also added 200+ yards and over 500 trees were removed with the re-design and should look significantly different than in 2013 when Jason Dufner won the PGA in 2013. That event catered much more to accurate drivers off the tee with the more narrow fairways and trees in the way but this version could be more like a typical PGA feel where bombers have excelled. Dufner came into that event outside of the top 100 in driving distance and other shorter hitters like Jim Furyk finished high. I’d expect a bit more length needed off the tee this year.

• The course features two Par 5s at over 600 yards and seven Par 4s at 460 or more. At 7,394 yards, East Course is one of the longest on tour this year

• The average width of the fairways is only 28 feet, which measures as a top 5 most narrow on tour this year. This is important considering how penal the rough is expected to be.

• The Greens are estimated to be one of the five smallest on the PGA tour that players will face this year. With narrow fairways, small greens and difficulty hitting out of the rough, I imagine there is a premium on ability to scramble from the rough.

• Saw this quote today from nolayingup today: Feedback received from players on Oak Hill so far:

  “Great if you can carry it 320.”

  “Reminds me of Winged Foot.”

  Finding the players with the most carry or at least a minimum threshold of carry on their drives is likely a decent starting point.

Weather: The early look at the weather in Rochester calls for a slightly cool (low 60s for the high) but sunny start on Thursday and Friday looks perfect with minimal winds. The weekend calls for more 60s weather and rain chances but as of Monday there doesn’t seem to be not much to strategize around just yet.

UPDATE (as of Tuesday): Thursday is looking much cooler than originally forecasted, all the way down into a high in the upper 30s to low 40s. Combined with a potential (slight chance) of rain on Friday afternoon and there is merit to looking more strongly at the late/early waves. However, it’s important to understand that they could just delay the start of the tournament due to frost and as of to prevent issues with the grass and could make the point moot. I will continue to monitor.

Key Stats: This course has not really been tested at all by a PGA event since the renovation in 2020 and we haven’t seen any PGA event here since 2013. So it is difficult to really get a historical grasp as to the different stats/factors for prior success here.

• 43 of the last 44 majors has gone to a player ranked in the top 50 of the World Golf Rankings. The PGA Championship has shown the propensity for a long shot to win this event, however. In fact, since 2010, four winners came in at 100-1 or longer shot including the unlikeliest Major winner in a long time, Phil Mickelson, winning in 2021. Last year’s 3rd place finishers, Mito Perreira, was 175-1 and would have been another long shot winner had he not blown his lead on 18. So while recent major history has not been kind to long shots, if there is one to take a shot at a deep value golfer, its the PGA.

• Whereas other majors, especially the Masters, have the leaderboard littered with top 50 level players, we have seen 25% of the top 10 finishers the last two years at the PGA Championship come in ranked 100th or worse in the official world golf ranks (OWGR). Last year’s 3rd place finisher, Mito Perreira, was only ranked 101st in the world at the time.

• Although the PGA moves its tournament around, 19 of the last 23 winners having already won an event prior to winning the PGA Championship, including last year’s winner Justin Thomas. Also, going back 17 years, every winner besides Mickelson in 2021, had a top 30 finish in their start prior to winning the PGA. Even Mito came in 17th at the Byron Nelson the week prior to last year’s PGA. This just emphasizes that it’s always a stiff test and players with some level of prior year success is a good indicator.

Round 1 and 2 Tee Times and Groups

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP FIELD STATS & RANKS- STROKES GAINED YTD 2023 (MIN 3 EVENTS)

Download Sheet HERE

Results in Majors since 2021

*Note: There is no strokes gained data for the 21 Open Championship

• Since 2021, among players who have participated in at least three majors, 11 players have made 100% of the cuts. Rahm, Fowler, Fitzpatrick, Matsuyama, Wise, Casey, McCarthy, Niemann, Macintyre, Cam Davis.

• Among 59 players in the field who played in both the 2021 and 2022 PGA Championship, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Abraham Ancer are tied for the best combined strokes gained total in those events. Ancer is the only player who has finished in the top 10 in each of the last two PGA Championships. Justin Rose, Shane Lowry and Rickie Fowler rounds out the top 5.

• With a very narrow average fairway throughout the course (26 feet) and extremely penal rough, there could be a real negative effect for certain golfers who are forced to consistently hit out of the rough at Oak Hill. I thought it may make sense to find those players who have a disparate difference in proximity to hole on approach in fairways versus in the rough. While this rough at Oak Hill is not very comparable to most on tour, if guys who rely on accuracy on their approach struggle in normal rough this could be a major hinderance to their game this week. Below is a list of the potentially most impacted by this rough:

Potentially Relevant PGA Stats

• Back in the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, all five players who finished in the top 5 came into the event ranked inside the top 90 in scrambling from the rough. Three players- Stenson, Blixt and Furyk came into the event inside the top 45 with Stenson coming in ranked #1 and finishing 2nd to Dufner for the Championship. Three of the top five finishers in the 2003 PGA at Oak Hill also came into the event top 90 in scrambling from the rough with two players inside the top 65.

• 6 of the top 8 finishers in 2013 came into the event top 56 in the good drive percentage stat. The top 3 finishers- Dufner, Stenson and Furyk ranked 5th, 4th and 14th respectively coming in. The others in the top 10 that year, including Rory Mcilroy, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day, were bombers who were really elite level players at the time. The top 9 finishers in 2003 also all came into the PGA Championship inside the top 65 in the same stat with most inside the top 40. As the fairways are very narrow and the punishment for landing in the rough is severe, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the stat could be an important one.

• Four of the top 6 finishers in 2013 came into the event ranked top 65 in proximity on approach from the rough including Dufner (winner) who came in 47th. The only guy inside the top 3 who came into the event with a poor rank was Furyk who was known for precision off the tee and ranked 3rd best on tour in fairway proximity. He was able to hit fairways and use his precise approach irons to score well. What’s interesting is that all of those top finishers, beside Furyk, were much more highly ranked on approach from the rough than in the fairway. This course setup was conducive for their strength and made the approach shots competitive with others in the field who excelled from the fairway only. In 2003, each of the top four finishers came in top 90 and the 2nd-4th place guys were top 47. Most of the top 10 were top 90 in both proximity to the hole from the fairway and rough.

• As mentioned at the top of the preview, there are bunkers in the middle of some of these fairways and the expectation is that with a cool weekend, there won’t be a ton of roll in the fairways. I’ve heard some conflicting things on that point from guys who played in the practice round, but that came on a windy and warm day with much drier conditions. Therefore, the ability to carry some of these bunkers and get overall long drives through the air is ever so helpful.

• Just using some of the filters from above, based on the 2003 and 2013 Oak Hill results, and take the top 90 scrambling from the rough, top 65 in good drive rank and top 75 in approach from the rough we get a nice eclectic mix of players below. Again, with some of the course renovations and the event being moved up to May from August, some of the results from both of the prior Oak Hill events may be proven irrelevant but at least you can use some of these data points to possibly help filter some guys who may fit the course.

Draftkings PGA Championship

ANALYSIS:

Overall Draftkings Tournament Strategy:

Finding the right lineup in DFS is all about threading the needle between guys you feel good about making the cut, finishing above their expected salary slot while also being able to score birdies and eagles in bunches. It’s more valuable to score birdies and eagles than it is punitive to shoot bogeys or worse. If you are playing a large tournament then you must also be aware of projected ownership of the guys in the field and try not to be overexposed to the most popular players if you can avoid it.

Best Values:

When comparing players at the top of the board and trying to find guys with a gap between their implied win probability (based on betting odds) and their projected ownership %, Rory Mcilroy and Dustin Johnson stand out the most. Rory has gone out of favor of late as he consistently fails in winning another major but he does know this course well and maybe this is the major he finally wins? DJ is hit or miss and it’s hard to know how the LIV guys will play but his ability off the tee gives him a leg up.

Hideki Matsuyama is not being talked about much at all this week but he consistently plays well in majors (8 straight made cuts since 2021 and four top 20s) and his projected ownership vs implied win probability is the widest among the 2nd/3rd tier of players. Shane Lowry and Tom Kim are two other mid tier players who are not garnering much in the way of ownership but are both top 30 in tee to green stats this season in the field and can be good guys to distinguish lineups. Brendan Steele, Brian Harman and Brandon Wu are three sub $7k players that I would take a chance on if you wanted a cheaper player.

Most Overvalued:
Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele are probably the two most overowned players among the elites based on ownership and win probability. That is not to say I would avoid them in lineups just that you understand that they are popular picks and likely offer the worst total value. Rickie Fowler is clearly the biggest over owned player in the sub $8k range although his pricing isn’t reflective of how well he has played this season. Further down the list Harris English and Denny McCarthy are both highly owned versus expectations.

TAs Selections:

(These are actual wagers TA has made and for purposes of being transparent. Please don’t tail blindly as outrights and Top 10/20 selections are typically high risk/high reward/low probability outcomes.)

Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1 to win risking 0.3 units (Betonline). Top 10 +370 risking 1 unit Betonline): It’s hard to deny just how good Fitz has been in Majors the last 2+ years. He has made the cut in each of the last 9 Majors dating back to 2021, including five straight top 21s and three top 10s in his last four. He’s 4th in the field in strokes gained overall per Major since 2021. He is tied with Abe Ancer for the highest strokes gained in the last two PGA Championships. After a rocky February and March, where he didn’t finish inside the top 10 at an event in seven straight on tour, he finished 10th at the Masters and then won the RBC Heritage the following week. He hits it a mile (top 50 in distance), ranks 34th on tour in proximity to the hole from the rough and is 13th in scrambling from the rough. I think anything at 30-1 or higher is a good number to win outright.

Talor Gooch 90-1 to win risking 0.1 units (Betonline). Top 20 +320 (Fanduel) risking 0.5 units: He is one of the only guys from the Liv Tour that I will consider this week. He was a favorite of mine in Majors last year and he has quietly won two LIV events this season. He has made a cut in 7 of his 8 Majors since 2021 and ranks 13th in the field in strokes gained at the last two PGA Championships. He is solid off the tee and hits it far enough (64th in distance on tour in 2022). It also doesn’t hurt that he has an afternoon tee time on Thursday which should give him a slight advantage. Last year he ranked 25th on tour in total driving and 3rd in strokes gained around the green. Those are obviously two stats I like this week.

Kurt Kityama to miss the cut to win 1 unit (-110 Betonline): Kityama somehow won the Arnold Palmer but besides that win has missed the cut in five straight individual events. He made the cut in a match play at the Dell Technologies event and team event in the Zurich Classic. He has made one cut at a major (72nd place at The 2022 Open) out of five chances since 2021. He ranks 95th out of 100 qualified players in this field in total strokes gained in Majors since 2021. He also ranks 92nd out of 100 in this field in strokes gained in 2023 while sitting 185th in proximity from the rough. He ranks 7th on tour on approach from the fairway which makes his rough/fairway disparity the 5th worst in the entire field.

Chris Kirk 280-1 to win risking 0.1 unit (Fanduel). Top 10 +1200 risking 0.2 units (DK). Top 20 +500 risking 0.5 units (Betonline): Based on how Kirk has played this year and his consistent nature, these numbers feel out of whack. He’s not a bomber but he isn’t a complete lightweight off the tee either (110th on tour in distance). Where he excels, however, is around the green which will be mightily important. He sits 3rd in the field in strokes gained around the green in 2023 and is #1 with a 90% consistency rate (percent of events with SG>0) around the green in the field. He is also 12th in tee to green in the field and is 15th on approach from the rough. He has made three straight cuts at a major including a 5th place finish at this same PGA Championship just last year. He came into that event with similar 300-1 odds as well so he clearly can outplay his expectation.

Justin Rose top 10 +950 risking 0.25 units ( Betonline). Top 20 +375 risking 0.75 units (Betonline). Round one leader 80-1 risking 0.1 units (Betonline). Rose fits my filters of guys who had been successful inside the top 5 of both the 2003 and 2013 PGA at Oak Hill. He sits 22nd in the field in total strokes gained per event in 2023 and is one of only six players who ranks top 50 in good drive percentage, scrambling from the rough and proximity on approach from the rough. He is also one of if not the best in the field in putting on bentgrass greens. He has also finished top 20 in four of his last six majors including two top 8 results. He also has finished top 13 in three straight PGA Championships. I like the first round leader angle considering he has a history of starting off strong (led 2021 Masters) and gets a late afternoon start Thursday when the temps should be at its warmest on a cool day.

Patrick Cantlay to win 18-1 risking 0.5 units (Betonline). Top 10 +180 risking 1 unit (Draftkings). I typically avoid Cantlay in majors but he has started to turn things around in the big events and I am ready to jump on board. He had a multi year stretch with zero top 10s in a major but has since finished 14-8-14. He fits everything you want at this course- is excellent off the tee with a top 40 rank in good drive percentage, is 8th in carry distance and has a 78% consistency rating off the tee this season. He is also excellent (45th) in scrambling from the rough. On a similarly narrow fairway, penal rough Donald Ross course at East Lake, Cantlay finished #2 in SG tee to green and #3 off the tee at the 2021 Tour Championship. Cantlay is on a really nice streak of late and in his last six individual stroke play events has finished 3-4-19-14-3-21 so form is excellent. The final cherry on top is his early afternoon tee time on Thursday.

Brian Harman +1450 top 10 risking 0.2 units (Betonline). Top 20 +550 (Betonline) risking 0.3 units. Top 40 +150 (DK) risking 0.5 units. Nobody ever wants to click on Harman and he is the opposite of sexy. But time in and time out Harman produces good results. He has made the cut in 6 of his last 9 majors and has five top 40s, three top 20s and a top 10 mixed in. He is #2 on tour in good drive percentage, is 6th in proximity on approach from the rough and is a demon around the green sitting 9th ranked in scrambling from the rough this year. At other courses where fairways are extra tight he has produced solid results. He finished 12th at Olympia Hills in 2020 and 34th at last year’s Tour Championship at the Donald Ross East Lake course. Those are the two most similar courses with skinny fairways and extra penal rough.

Tyrell Hatton 46-1 to win risking 0.2 units (Fan Duel). Top 10 +365 (Betonline) risking 0.8 units. Hatton is a personal favorite of mine ever since I won with him at Bay Hill right before the pandemic in 2020. He is 5th in this field in SG tee to green and has an impressive 89% consistency rating from tee to green this season. He ranks 14th in good drive percentage on tour and is 31st on approach from the rough. His all around game has been on display of late with a 5th, 3rd and 19th place finish in his last three events. He has quietly posted five top 6 finishes in his last 9 individual stroke play events. He also sits 9th in SG at the PGA Championship in the last two years. The only thing holding him back is his temperament so hopefully he doesn’t get too frustrated.

Live (after round 2); Lowry 60-1 to win (0.2), +210 top 10 (1 unit) and +145 matchup (0.5 unit) v Rory today all on DK