2023 BROWNS Projected Draft Board

Browns fans will have to wait until pick #74 for the team to make a selection. But it’s still a draft and we love it. With that in mind, another look as what types of traits/profiles Andrew Berry and Paul Depodesta typically target in the draft and who might be on their board. Lets be clear here, I am not a scout and this is not an exercise in actual draft player analysis. I am just using as much data that I have available to me and some historical context to try and best determine the players who COULD be on the Browns radar. Check out last year’s analysis

• sorted by PFF big board rank only

EDGE Rusher:

Workout Metrics– Every Sashi/Berry edge rusher drafted (Garrett, Nassib, Ogbah, Wright, Thomas) posted excellent 10 yard splits (1.62 or better). Even the Browns FA signings of Takk Mckinley (1.60) two years ago and Ogbonia Okorownkwo (1.60) this offseason was a little more proof that a good 10 yard burst is something they covet with Edge rushers. It is important to note that teams are starting to more and more utilize GPS tracking data which is not available to the public. This data was used to help draft Richard Lecounte two seasons ago and is most likely used more when there is incomplete speed information or if there is a strong disconnect between game/tape speed and 40 times.

Edge Rushers: 10 yard split

Garrett 1.57

Nassib 1.62

Ogbah 1.56

Takk 1.60

Winovich 1.57

Clowney 1.59

Wright NA

Thomas 1.61

Okorownko 1.60

All of them are 1.64 and under outside of Alex Wright who didn’t work out last year. Even Shareef Miller, a 2019 4th round pick of the Eagles by Berry, produced a decent 10 split (1.64).

Stats: Studies have shown that pressure rates are much more sticky from year to year in the NFL than just sacks. The ability to win and consistently get pressure on the QB is a trait the Browns covet and have shown a propensity to target Edge rushers who produce in college. They also like guys with good PFF pass rush grades. Last season, although he didn’t workout for teams due to injury, the Browns selected Alex Wright in the 3rd round who produced an excellent 18% pressure rate and 91.1 PFF pass rush grade. That was the 2nd best pressure rate in the entire class last season. Isaiah Thomas was a 7th round pick and he was top 15 in the class in pass rush grade (77.4) with a decent but not great 10% pressure rate. Those are solid numbers in the final round of a draft.

Age: Andrew Berry has not drafted many Edge rushers but Wright was 21.7 years old as a 3rd round pick. Miller was 22.1 years old at the time the Eagles drafted him in the 4th round in 2019. Outside of age within the Edge rusher group, Berry has made 15 picks between rounds 3 and 5 in his Browns career. Excluding Kicker Cade York, 11 of those 14 players were age 22 or under at the time of the draft. Only RB Jerome Ford (22.6), DT Jordan Elliot (22.4) and S Richard Lecounte (22.6) were older than 22 in those rounds. As the draft moves along, the leniency on age follows suit. Obviously, beggars can’t be choosers when it comes to filters like age, athleticism and production that late in a draft.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Andre Carter- Carter is a PFF darling but he misses the cut as he is 23 yo and posted mediocre workout numbers. His 4.93 40 was a major disappointment.

Yaya Diaby- While Diaby fits from a freak athleticism standpoint, he is nearly 24 yo and his pass rush metrics were average to below average against much younger competition last year (14% pressure rate and 73 PFF pass rush grade).

Defensive Tackle:

Andrew Berry has drafted only three pure Defensive Tackles in his Browns tenure- Jordan Elliot in 2020 (3rd round), Tommy Togiai in 2021 (4th round) and Perrion Winfrey in 2022 (4th round). Togiai and Winfrey were under 22 while Elliot was “ancient” for a top 3 round pick by Berry at age 22.4. These were not amazing athletes either. The RAS for Elliot was decent at 7.4 and Togiai came in strong at 8.6 but Winfrey did not post a RAS without explosive metrics. The commonality was that all three guys posted average/above average pressure rates (>10%) and good PFF pass rush grades (Elliot- 91, Togiai- 77 and Winfrey- 79.3).

The Browns have clearly prioritized pass rush capabilities from the interior DL both in the draft and in FA. They finally bucked that trend a bit in FA this year with the signing of veteran Dalvin Tomlinson but still he is a capable pass rusher. I would imagine Berry would take a shot at another mid round DT who is at least above average in pass rush. This 2023 draft class is very weak at DT so the options are rather thin.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Gervon Dexter Sr- Dexter is a very popular name among mock drafters for the Browns in round 3. I understand why (young, great athlete) but his pass rush grades are horrific (55). He also produced a below average pressure rate (8%) with just two sacks. History has shown that some of the better DTs (Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, Grady Jarrett for ex) have produced excellent pass rush metrics in college. Even worse for Dexter, I only have data back since 2014 but I couldn’t find one single DT with a PFF pass rush grade under 57 who was a useful NFL player.

Linebacker:

The Browns have only drafted two LBs in the three Berry drafts- Tony Fields in the 5th round of the 2020 draft and Jacob Phillips in the 3rd round of the 2021 draft. The only commonalities is both players were under the age of 22, while Fields RAS was a poor 4.9, both players posted a really good 40 yard dash (4.66 and 4.64) and 10 yard times (1.55 and 1.63) as well. In addition, both players posted excellent PFF tackling grades (77.4 and 91.2) in college. Surprisingly, neither player excelled in pass coverage which is the antithesis of what you’d expect from the Browns in terms of LBs they’d pursue. With all of that being said, it’s very difficult to pinpoint exactly who they’d target in this draft with precision but we will do our best. Remember, in doing this for nearly a decade, the Browns are not going to be so rigid with their filters that they have absolute cutoffs but rather everything is a sliding scale. Meaning, sure all else being equal, they’d want a sub 22 yo, elite athlete who is graded highly by PFF but the later the draft goes, the more flexible the team is likely to be if they are elite in other categories.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Drew Sanders- He has multiple traits that the Browns would normally love- under age 22 and highly athletic but he has graded out as one of the worst tacklers in the entire LB class. His 57 grade isn’t just below average it is putrid. The Browns have typically liked LBs who are good tacklers. Sanders is a converted edge rusher so there is still that learning curve. Maybe the Browns just take him due to his traits and figure out the fundamentals later but I excluded him for now.

Ivan Pace Jr.- Highly productive but has by far the shortest arms/wingspan in the class while posting the 4th worst RAS score (5.6) in the class. He is also 22.5 years old so that will be a mark against him as well.

Henry To’oTo’o- I saw Mel Kiper have him earmarked to the Browns which makes absolutely no sense based on the numbers. Not only is he already 22 years old, his 6.7 RAS is 7th worst in the class and his 58 tackling grade is 5th worst in the class. There isn’t much to like at all for what the Browns go after.

Wide Receiver:

You can really separate how the Browns view the WRs in a draft really based on two different buckets. You have the really young receiver with either elite speed or just elite athleticism. The other bucket is poor athletic metrics but elite level college production. Schwartz, DPJ and Bell all were under 22 years old when drafted and Schwartz was one of the younger players you will ever see in a draft at just 20.6 years of age. DPJ posted one of the best workouts of any WR in his class with a 9.6 RAS, Schwartz ran a blazing 4.27 40 yard dash and was realistically a reach pick by Berry as there was as big run on the WRs. Bell was a highly productive WR at Purdue (consensus All American and 6th best PFF grade in class) but posted awful workouts so his stock plummeted. We saw something similar back in 2016 when Sashi Brown drafted Rashard Higgins in the 5th round. Higgins was a first team All American with multiple 1K yard seasons at Colorado State but had one of the worst combines you will ever see for a WR and posted a 1.6 RAS score.

Woods was drafted in round 6 as a 23.1 year old from Oklahoma and while he had a solid combine (7.6 RAS) and was decently productive in college, nothing really stood out about him. Woods and Bell did produce really good 10 yard splits at 1.51 and 1.56. Even if their other workout metrics were sub par, the quick burst looks to be a good milestone.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Nathaniel Dell- “Tank” is an exciting WR out of Houston but is the lightest in his class at only 165 pounds and is 5’8. He also had a solid combine but based on his size, posted a mediocre 5.8 RAS. Not to mention that he is already 23 years old. He is an excellent punt returner so if the Browns decide they want him as a specialist, maybe he could make sense if he drops far enough. Otherwise, I am not sure he is a fit with the Browns.

Kayshon Boutte- We know the Browns love their LSU Tigers and he is just 21 years old, but he posted the 3rd worst RAS and 7th worst PFF grades in this class.

Tight End

The Browns have only drafted one TE (Harrison Bryant) in the last six years. Bryant was a mediocre athlete and was 22 years old when drafted however he was coming off a Mackey Award winning season. He was also PFFs #1 graded TE that season. I wonder how much the Browns take age into consideration for TEs as compared to other positions, as we have consistently seen some of the best TEs come into the league at age 23 or above. Both Travis Kelce and George Kittle entered the league well into their 23rd year but both were elite athletes (>9 RAS). Rob Gronkowski was only 21 but he too posted a RAS >9. I think there is merit to the fact that TE is a very difficult position to adjust to and takes longer to mature. The Browns have all the historical data and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are ok drafting an older TE as long as they post 9+ RAS and were graded decent enough by PFF.

Safety

This is a really weak class and to be honest, enough holes where I can see the Browns passing altogether. Berry has only drafted two Safeties in his Browns career, Grant Delpit in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft and Richard Lecounte in the 5th round of the 2021 draft. Delpit didn’t work out prior to being drafted due to an injury but was a highly recruited player in the SEC and won the Thorpe award. Lecounte was excellent in college, again at an SEC power Georgia, but fell due to horrible testing (4.79 40, 0.6 RAS) following a motorcycle injury in November. He was a 5 star recruit out of HS and started all four seasons for Georgia. His GPS tracking data showed that he played at a much faster speed than how he tested so that information along with his 5 star pedigree made it a decent risk/reward selection late in the draft. Lecounte was also 22 years old at the time so he had multiple red flags. Delpit was a typically young player drafted in the 2nd round at 21 years old.

Both players were graded well by PFF from a coverage standpoint and as we know, the Browns covet coverage ability more than run stopping when they look for Safeties. With the issues they are having with Greg Newsome not wanting to play the slot, there could be some value in finding a Safety who can play some nickel CB as well here.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Christopher Smith- Highly decorated CB out of Georgia but is nearly 23 years old and his workouts were atrocious (2.77 RAS- 4.6 40). His coverage grades were also below average

Offensive Lineman:

Andrew Berry has drafted four offensive lineman in his Browns tenure with all but LT Jedrick Wills coming in rounds 4 and later. Three of the four- Wills, Nick Harris and James Hudson all were under the age of 22 when drafted. Last year’s 7th round pick, C Dawson Deaton, was 23 years old. Surprisingly, elite athleticism does not appear to be a major gating item when it comes to these OL selected.. Wills posted solid metrics (8.4 RAS, 72% SPARQ), but Harris (6.8 RAS) and Hudson (3.8 RAS) were mediocre to below average athletes. Deaton was an older prospect but an elite athlete, posting the 2nd best RAS of any C in the class (9.68). All four do share common traits of allowing low pressure rates, at 2.5% of pass block snaps or below, as well as above average pass block grades. Dawson was only graded at 71 but in the 7th round it’s still a solid grade.

I think this position group is most likely one where OL coach Bill Callahan has a big say into the prospects for the Browns to go after. Maybe more than any other position group, coaching and scouting is taken over numbers a bit more for the Browns with OL. I didn’t filter for athleticism at all with this group but it just so happened that the filters below led to guys with the best athletic metrics.

Excluding Dawson in the 7th round, the likeliest filters are 22 or under of age, a pressure rate of 2.5% or less and a PFF pass block grade above 76 (group average). I increased the threshold for age a bit and lowered the pass block grade a tad to find a couple 7th round options.

Running Back:

Running backs are an interesting evaluation because unlike some other position groups, the best pure athlete at the position is not really correlated at all with success in the NFL. In fact, historically the track level speed guys are not the ones that have done well. There are likely other measures that the Browns will evaluate if they do decide to take an RB this draft. I am squarely in the camp that they are perfectly set with Chubb and Ford as their duo and can nab a couple undrafted free agents to fight for that 3rd RB spot but there is also the case to be made that they could trade of let Chubb walk in the next two years and having that pipeline filled in advances could make sense.

Berry has only drafted two RBs in his Browns tenure and one of them, Demetric Felton, was more of a gadget guy. Ford was a 5th round pick last year and he was not some elite athlete (6.8 RAS) but he did have good speed (4.46 40) and was graded well by PFF (84.6). But I would be surprised if pure speed was something that the Browns really cared a lot about. They likely just want a minimum level of speed (4.55 or less). He met the median level of explosive run rate (10+ yard runs) and did produce a good 27% missed tackle rate. What I know of the Browns is they will likely want some minimum level of explosive play ability and the ability to create your own yards if a play is not perfectly blocked. Studies have shown that explosiveness is one of the traits in college that has been strongly correlated to success in the NFL for an RB. They are also likely to not draft an RB who hasn’t demonstrated at least some ability to catch the football so that has to be considered as well.

In addition, unless they are interested in bringing in more of gadget type RB/WR/KR, they will likely shy away from the really short and/or light RBs. The proof is in the pudding. Since 2000, out of 108 RBs drafted, Dion Lewis and Darren Sproles are really the only successful RBs drafted under 195 pounds. The shorter RBs (5’9 and under) follow a similar pattern as well.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Dwayne McBride- I was this close to adding him to the list but two things irked me enough to think he should be kept off. He didn’t work out at all and when you read scouting reports, they all say he is missing top end speed. If he did workout and his metrics were poor that would be a major red flag coming against the competition he faced. The icing on the cake though was a complete lack of involvement in the passing game. He only caught two passes all of last season. Usually top prospects at smaller schools would be used as much as possible.

Deuce Vaughn- I loved Vaughn at Kansas St. He was so fun to watch. However, he is absolutely too small at just 5’5 and 179 pounds, to be a full time RB. If he posted elite size adjusted workout metrics you could make a case for him but he posted the third worst RAS in the class. His 4.56 40 and 1.59 10 yard split were both pedestrian for an average sized RB let alone one as small as Vaughn. Even worse, his 13.9% explosive run rate was below the class average. He also only forced a missed tackle on 18% of plays, was 2nd lowest in the entire class. You can’t blame it on size either as Keaton Mitchell recorded a 35.8% missed tackle rate at a similar size.

Corner Back:

The Browns have drafted two CBs, Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson, in the Andrew Berry era and both look to be excellent selections. Newsome was only 20 years old while Emerson was 21.6 when drafted. They both posted good workout numbers (9.7 and 8.5 RAS) as well with PFF coverage grades of 83.5 (Newsome) and 78.8 (Emerson). I see no reason for the Browns to deviate much from what has worked. Obviously, if they do draft a CB in this draft it will likely be the latest they have taken one in a few years. Therefore, I expect them to bend a bit on the age, athleticism and coverage grades. It is likely ok to bend a bit in one metric as long as it is made up for with a high end outlier somewhere else.

Popular players excluded from the list above:

Eli Ricks- Ricks is a popular CB option out of Alabama. His 5.0 RAS and below average coverage grade ( 72.1 ) really hurts him here. His 4.6 40 was the 2nd worst of the entire class.