Generally speaking, paying at the high end of the Free Agent market has historically been a poor return on investment for teams. The goal is to get at least 2-3 productive years to pay off the investment but most times NFL teams don’t see the bang for their buck. Whether it be underwhelming production or frankly injuries due to the nature of many FAs on their 3rd and 4th contracts, it is difficult to build a sustainable roster by using FA as the main tool.
GMs like Howie Roseman have laid the blueprint to how Free Agency and the Draft should complement each other. Attacking the most premium position groups (QB, WR, T, ED, pass rushing DT, CB) should be reserved mainly for the Draft. This is mainly due to the fact that teams rarely let the better players at those positions even reach Free Agency and the fact that it costs so much to sign players at those positions. This concept, commonly referred to as “surplus value”, is the gap between the contract value of a player in the draft on a rookie deal and his actual value to the team (ie what you have to play for that player in an open market).
You are spending out of your shoes for the best guys at QB and pass rusher for example, that if you can find those guys at a young age in the draft and on a rookie contract, the advantage is massive. That does not mean that you can’t find cheaper options at those positions in free agency, but the probability is lower to find a top end starter. If you are going to pick up guys at premium positions in free agency, you want to find useful backups with upside. And you want to find the guys who were able to walk on teams that are cap strapped or loaded with cheaper players at that same position. Last season, for example, the Eagles allowed DT Milton Williams to walk in FA because they were already paying multiple stars like Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown top of the market money on offense and had a surplus of DL like Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis under contract. He went to New England for a giant contract but actually paid off with a great season. That is a rarity but he was still only 26 yo and had plenty of gas in the tank for upside. A few years ago, ED Trey Hendrickson was allowed to walk by the Saints mainly bc they had good edge rushers on the roster (Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport) and they are perpetually under the gun from a cap perspective. On 90% of other teams, Hendrickson would never have seen the light of day at his age. Two seasons ago, Miami let ED Andrew Van Ginkle walk in FA bc they had Bradley Chubb on a big deal and the cap situation was a mess. They ended up drafting Chop Robinson anyway so were ok to let AVG hit free agency as a part time starter. The Vikings signed him and he has been outstanding in two seasons in Minnesota. That is where you want to attack if you are going to spend at those premium positions, albeit a rarity.
Where the smartest GMs make their hay in free agency is filling in the gaps at positions like RB, TE, interior OL, LB and S. And picking off undervalued players at those positions on an annual basis to supplement the players at the most impactful premium positions from the draft and currently on your roster is the ideal mix. No better example of this was just two seasos ago when the Eagles spent just $3M on a 1 year deal for LB Zach Baun. He turned into a DPOY candidate and obviously a Super Bowl winner. Its not easy to hit to that degree but even guys who turned into nice role players for cheap like TE Mike Gisecki, LB Blake Cashman and G Kevin Zeitler are perfect examples of FA hits.
From 2020-2024, nearly 50% of all UFAs signed in the offseason in the NFL were released or traded before they hit the 2nd year of their contract. Under 20% of UFAs signed in that span even made it to their full contract length. UFA in the NFL really just turns into a race to rent players for 1-2 years at the end of the day.
*BROWNS*: I am a Browns fan and will try and put a spin on potential additions at the areas of need. They will not be overspending so likely they will be trying to find undervalued assets.
Note: The players listed in these tables are UFAs only. I will try and note when guys have void years and likely to be available.
*Geno Smith not listed but is expected to be cut any day.
Summary: This is clearly a very weak class of QB FAs but that is what you’d expect at the most important position. Most of this is self explanatory but someone is going to pay Malik Willis $25+M per year to really see if he is a franchise QB. I understand the hesitancy but for a team like Miami that is rebuilding anyway and not in position for a franchise QB this season, why not give him a shot? I would expect Arizona as the lead suitor with Mike Lafleur’s ties to GB thru his brother of course. His improvement in GB is one that I have never seen before, albeit in limited snaps. He went from the single worst QB by EPA (-0.321 per DB) with the Titans to elite level numbers (+0.347 EPA) on over 100 drop backs in two seasons with GB.
Daniel Jones is likely to stay in Indy and Aaron Rodgers to either stay in PIT or retire. Tyler Huntley will just be a vet backup for someone (Giants? Browns?) after solid play in ’25. Geno Smith will certainly get some looks on teams looking for a veteran to compete or push a young QB. I personally think he looked cooked last year and you can blame a bad OL but he ranked dead last among 41 QBs in PFF grade under pressure and just 23rd when kept clean. The most intriguing name on this list that is really going under the radar is Marcus Mariota. An afterthought but Mariota is the closest thing we have to an actual Darnold, Geno, Baker level of resurgence this season. His 71.4 PFF grade, +0.04 EPA and 49% success rate on over 300 drop backs was really solid for a Washington team dealing with a ton of injuries. In fact, Mariota was much better than Jayden Daniels this year with the same surrounding cast. This isn’t a one year oulier either. Among 50 qualified QBs, since 2020, Mariota ranks 5th in the NFL in success rate and 20th in EPA. In those 21 starts, his teams have averaged over 22 ppg and exceeded their team total in over 50% of those games. I would absolutely take a shot on Mariota if I am team that is not a contender and does not have their franchise QB today who wants to stay competitive but won’t break the bank. Teams like the Jets and Browns would absolutely fit while keeping flexibility into 2027.
They are not FAs but look for some trade/cut movement with guys like Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Anthony Richardson. A reunion for one of Brissett or Flacco to compete and push Michael Penix in ATL looks like a strong possibility.
Browns Options: Already discussed it above but Mariota is a guy I would bring in if the price is not too steep. Todd Monken wants to push the ball down the field and between Jameis, Lamar and Baker, they all ranked among the league leaders in air yards under Monken as OC. Mariota ranked #1 in the NFL in that category in 2025. Anything in the $7-$10M AAV range is perfectly reasonable. I’d then either just trade Shedeur Sanders if you do not want to create a constant controversy or just have Deshaun Watson sit the season on an agreed upon plan. We have no clue if Watson can actually be healthy enough this year to be effective considering back to back achilles tears is virtually unprecedented. Otherwise, potentially bringing back Huntley on the cheap is an option. I do believe Anthony Richardson would make for a good dart throw via trade as well. Obviously he is a freak physically but also led the NFL in air uards in 2024.
Summary: I kind of hate talking about FA RBs. Just so much chatter about guys who rarely make a real impact in FA. Obviously there are exceptions with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry but generally speaking, just draft one in the mid rounds instead of paying real dollars for an aging RB. Someone will overpay Kenneth Walker due to his SB run but outside of the occasional explosive run, from a down to down perspective, he is just an average RB. He’s also not a huge factor in the passing game. I’ve heard rumblings that the Chiefs could get involved here but maybe Sean Payton and the Broncos decide to spend up after failing to land David Montgomery.
For some reason, I keep hearing Travis Etienne is going to get big offers and no idea why. His numbers continue to decrease and his 36% success rate is one of the worst in this class. Rico Dowdle and Tyler Allgeier are decent mid tier options who can be the hammer and complement in the run game. For a team looking at a reliable 3rd down receiving option, Kenneth Gainwell was extremely valuable down the stretch for PIT. He was the Steelers most reliable weapon late and consistently made big plays. He could be really interesting for a team like the Broncos and Payton going after his more modern version of a Darren Sproles. The Saints themselves would be a fun option as a Kamara replacement.
Browns Options: I don’t expect the Browns to be involved in this market at all considering they drafted two last year.
VOID Players:
Summary: No position embodies the money pit that is FA more than WR has historically speaking. Outside of outliers like a Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs, its rare for a WR to reach expectations. This is typically a position group that I would ignore all together if I am a team unless you are looking for that final missing piece for a Super Bowl.
Pickens got tagged so he is off the board and Alec Pierce could test the market while negotiating with the Colts. Pierce has improved greatly and his yards per reception are elite. But he is going to get #1 top shelf money and he is not that at all. He could fit in nicely with a team like New England bc he is such a great deep threat and Drake Maye is currently the best deep ball passer in the NFL. NE cut Stefon Diggs and would like to add real speed to this offense and Pierce could do that. Speaking of Diggs, bc this list was put together prior to his release I don’t have him listed. But he is now free and replacing Keenan Allen with the Chargers to give Justin Herbert a veteran security blanket is not a bad fit. Wan’Dale Robinson is a very high volume slot WR who fills a role but doesn’t move the needle for an offense enough to justify what he likely gets in the market. Maybe the Titans with Brian Daboll as OC is a spot where we see Robinson get a contract.
The best value among the cheaper WRs would be Jalen Nailor of the Vikings. Nailor finished 54th out of 110 qualified WRs last season in ESPNs WR metrics and has nice versatility as he has spent almost exactly 50% of his snaps at both slot and out wide. At 27 years old, he would certainly be a nice value addition for $5M per year or less as a team’s #3 WR.
Browns Options: Under Andrew Berry the Browns have spent way more time trading for good WR options than signing one. I expect the same here although for bargain basement purposes, someone like Nailor or more specifically Treylon Burks fits the bill if they decided to go that route. Burks is a guy they were being linked to a lot when he came out of the draft in 2022. He visited with the Browns twice in that pre draft process so they know him very well. He fits the Andrew Berry model of a failed former first round pick who has been derailed by injuries and inconsistencies. They can sign him for peanuts and see if he can show the upside with his pedigree.
VOID Players:
Summary: Kyle Pitts is the obvious crown jewel and hopes are that he can continue his ascension the last few years. I think he re-signs with Atlanta but some teams could overpay. The rest of the clase is just ok. It would surprise me if Travis Kelce left KC other than a retirement. But if there is one team/city that he would leave for it would be his hometown Browns. I dont see it happening but that would be the caveat. I know Isaiah Likely is a hot name but we have never really seen him as a true #1 TE and while he can act like a pseudo WR, he is a terrible blocker. There is a reason he was never handed the reigns as the Ravens top TE and I think a team will overpay for him to prove to try and be a full time #1.
The two potential values to me are Chig Okonkwo and Greg Dulcich. Chig will certainly cost more than Dulcich but he is excellent after the catch and finished 9th among TEs in yac/rec. He is a really fast athlete who ran a blazing 4.52 wiht a 35.5 vertical leap when he came out in 2022. Still only 22 years old, his upside is very tantalizing. Dulcich is a former 2nd round pick who bounced around before landing with the Dolphins. He only played 25% of snaps last season when Waller was out but he finished 10th in PFF grade, 6th in ESPNs TE rankings and was 2nd in yards after the catch per reception among TEs. His 2.3 yards per route was excellent last year and as a starter posted eye popping 2.45 yrr. Maybe it was just an outlier stetch of games but I do not think he would command much in the market at all to take a flier on.
Browns Options: I like Dulcich (explained above) as a potential cheap option. I also think that going after former Ravens TE Charlie Kolar as a 2nd TE to Fannin and more of a run blocking presence could be a good fit. He is not going to wow you with physical traits but he can block his ass off and is a great teammate. He finished top 10 among TEs in run blocking grade and obviously knows the Monken system.
Tackle Summary: I think the OL in FA can really be parsed into the very likely to overpay for at best average Tackle play and being able to get some of the best bargains in all of FA at C and Guard.
At Tackle, there is really only one legit starting LT and that is 26 yo Rasheed Walker. He is a former 7th round pick so the pedigree isn’t great but he has held up fairly well in his brief career. He is a much better pass blocker than run blocker and has yet to exceed 56 in PFFs run blocking grade. His 70.0 pass blocking is solid enough but he finished 11th best in ESPNs pass block win rate among Tackles. He is probably the only true LT that you can comfortably plug right in there day one as a starter but realistically he is very much going to be overpaid for his value. Otherwise, you are really scraping the bottom of the barrel just for guys who can be rotation level swing tackles but not necessarily starters you can pencil in. Justin Skule and Braxton Jones are two in that regard that come to mind. Jones played just 210 snaps last year after suffering a knee injury in week 4. The 26 year old is a former 5th round pick who shined in his first few seasons as a surprise for the Bears. He started his career with three straight solid seasons (PFF grades of 75, 68 and 77) prior to the injury shortened 2025 season. His 80 pass block grade in 2024 ranked 13th best among all LTs. He is young enough and has multiple good years under his belt to earn good money. I’d much rather pay Jones 25-30% of what it would take for Walker. Skule is your prototype veteran OL who can play both T positions in a pinch. He is not a guy I’d give anything more than 1 year and a couple million dollars but he would be a nice swing tackle to pair with a rookie first round Tackle if a team is going that route.
The RT options look much better in this class. Jermaine Eluemunor and Braden Smith look to be the top options. Eluemunor is by far the best pass block option among the RT and likely is going to get paid that way. His 3% pressure rate allowed ranks easily as the best in this class. He has four 70+ pass block grade seasons in his last six. Smith is a solid veteran for the Colts and has produced nicely for a number of years but his issue is durability. He has a multitude of concussion and neck injuries over his career and will be a major risk.
From a value perspective, Larry Borom offers a cheaper option at RT. He has played both T positions in his career (1,709 at RT and 788 snaps at LT) but has excelled mainly on the right side. He has graded out in the low 60s by PFF when he has played at RT and mid-high 60s as a pass blocker. His 3.7% pressure rate allowed last year ranked inside the top 20 among all Tackles. He started 11 games for Miami last season at RT and outside of one miserable performance vs the Jets, graded out very well.
Browns Options: The Browns are clearly in the Tackle market but should be ok on the right side for now with Tytus Howard and Dawand Jones as the starter and backup. The left side is a mess with no viable options right now and I’d look for them to pursue their franchise LT at either 6 or 24 in the draft (likely 6). But having a veteran option that won’t cost them a ton is something they will want to have available. I think both Braxton Jones and Justin Skule, discussed above, can make real sense. Neither will get paid starting money but can give the team options with whatever rookie they draft. Josh Jones is listed among the Guards below but he is has been a swing tackle for much of his career and profiles as a cheap one year backup option for the Browns. He has bounced around his career, including a short stint in Baltimore with Monken, but in limited snaps last year with the Seahawks (258), he graded in the 70s for both pass and run blocking.
Guard and Center Summary: These are the positions that should be where teams shop wisely in free agency. We already saw a decent starting Guard, Dalton Risner, re-sign in Cincinnati for just 1 year and $3.25M. If that is the going rate for a suitable starting Guard then this should be a position group with real value.
Tyler Linderbaum is the star of the Center FA class and someone (Chargers? Ravens? Giants?) are going to give him huge money. Connor McGovern from the Bills is a rock solid starting Center who should also get big time money. Among the rest, Cade Mays is probably the best of the cheaper options. Mays has taken over 1100 snaps at C the last two years and has not allowed a single sack. He is a poor run blocker but finished 6th in 2024 and 15th in 2025 in PFF pass block grade.
Guard is a really nice group this free agency and it is deep enough to find some real value down the board. There are seven Guards who played at least 60% of snaps last season and graded at a 65 or higher by PFF. Risner was among that group but he is off the board now. Isaac Seumalo is a really good starting Guard available in the market from PIT. He ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed, 3rd in pass block win rate and 7th in PFF pass block grade. He is 33 years old but is a perfect plug in as a starting Guard for many teams. Kevin Zeitler is 36 years old but still is producing enough for another final one year contract. David Edwards is under 30 years old and had a fine 2025 season, with his 2nd straight season of 1k+ snaps under his belt.
Besides those guys at the top, there are a handful of other serviceable Guards who teams can feel comfortable plugging in and can offer real value include Greg Van Roten, Dylan Parham, Zion Johnson and Wyatt Teller.
Browns Options: The Browns absolutely covet pass blocking over run blocking and are willing to attack those lineman who fit that bill. I do not believe the Browns will be fishing in the Linderbaum, McGovern, Seumalo, Zeitler pool for Center and Guard but could be in line for the mid tier level players. I think they would absolutely love to get their hands on David Edwards if the price is right but he is looking at a massive payday. A guy like Dylan Parham who is only 26 years old and has played both Guard and Center in his short career is attractive. He finished 19th among interior lineman in pass block win rate and has serviceable pass block grades in his career. He is likely in the 2 year $3-4M per season type of range which fits the Browns perfectly. Teven Jenkins is not listed but had a nice year in limited snaps for the Browns and would be at the top of their list to bring back as well. The market for Alijah Vera Tucker is really interesting bc he is everything Andrew Berry likes when it comes to guys with a strong pedigree (former 1st round pick) and has graded out very well in prior seasons and finished 13th among Guards in pass block grade in 2024.
If Luke Wypler is deemed to be 100% for training camp, I do think he is in line to start for the Browns and give them a really cheap starting option. A guy like Parham can be Center insurance if need be but I do not think they would go after any high priced starting options there.
I believe the Browns end up signing 2-3 veteran OL in FA or via trade to mix with 2-3 OL in the draft. At Guard, depending on if Joel Bitonio returns or not, they would be looking for two new starters. Jenkins clearly could be re-signed for one position and if Bitonio leaves, they will look to pay up a bit for an established starter there. If he comes back, then a more affordable Guard is likely there. I do think they sign one established Tackle in this cycle and could be one of Braxton Jones, Justin Skule and Josh Jones.
Summary: It is surprising to see how good this Edge rusher class is this season. Add in that Maxx Crosby and Jonathan Greenard are available in a trade, and teams can certainly find good pass rushers this off season. Trey Hendrickson and Jaelan Philips are the two best available FA pass rushers and both should get big paydays. I expect teams like the Bears, Panthers, Cowboys and Bucs to be the most active in the edge rusher market and these two guys should be high on their lists. Other guys like Odafe Oweh who are still realtively young will get strong contracts. Rashan Gary was recently released and off of a poor season, still has plenty of upside in a new situation.
There is a segment of this group who are guys in their 30s that will only play a portion of snaps in obvious pass rush situations, etc like Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Hasson Reddick and Jadeveon Clowney are guys who have typically waited things out until the summer to sign with the best opportunities. I expect something similar this year as well.
The younger options who are more mid-tier pass rushers like Boye Mafe, AJ Epenesa, K’Lavon Chaisson and Kwitty Paye could be had at good values with all of the big money pass rushers going first. I think those guys offer some potential good values as well as Arnold Ebiketie who only played 35% of the Falcons snaps last year but produced a strong 13.7% pressure rate, a 73 PFF pass rush grade and adequate strength against the run (65.2). He only generated two sacks on his 25 pressures so with a bit more positive reversion this season on a similar pressure rate, his sack numbers should coincide. With ATL spending two 1s on pass rushers last season, he is likely out of the mix going forward even with Pearce’s potential legal issues. He can be a nice find for a reasonable price at his age.
Browns Options: The Browns area in a really good spot with Myles Garrett, Alex Wright and Isiah Mcguire as main pass rushers. I have written extensively in the past how Andrew Berry likes to target edge rushers who are undervalued based on poor sack production while generating strong pressure numbers. Guys routinely get overpaid in the market based on just sacks but the Browns try and uncover those pass rushers who maybe were better than their underlying sack figures would suggest. To this point, Berry has signed or traded for guys like Chase Winovich, Obo Okoronkwo and Jadeveon Clowney who generated poor sack figures prior to a transaction. Clowney (0 sacks, 10.5% pressure rate), Winovich (0 sacks, limited snaps) and Okoronkwo (5 sacks, 13.4% pressure rate) all fit that bill.
I am not sure the Browns are in the market for any veteran pass rushers but just in case they want to upgrade from Mcguire and do want to add to the rotation, Boye Mafe and Arnold Ebiketie could make some sense at the right price. I talked about Ebiketie earlier but Mafe is still young and his pressure rates are consistently solid (12%) but a poor 5% sack to pressure conversion rate (2 sacks).
Note: Ignore Jonah Williams market projections, that was an error as it brought in the LT Jonah Williams data.
Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were recently cut and are available.
Summary: This is a very weak DT class. In fact, its a lot of recycled DTs who got 1-2 year deals and keep showing up on these FA lists year after year. Only Dre’mont Jones (72%) and Jonathan Allen (76%) even played more than 58% on the entire FA list among DTs. It’s littered with older players who are just rotation guys at this point. As the DT position has evolved into a premium position and the best of the best are paid like edge rushers, it is no surprise that the value is limited here. Jones, DJ Reader, Calais Campbell and John Franklin-Myers are three of the best available. I have seen reports that the Titans would be strong suitors for Franklin-Myers and maybe the Bengals come back to Reader for a 2nd round. Jonathan Allen is a name that will be brought up but he has not been good in years. Hargrave is interesting bc he still has been a quality, yet not spectacular, DT the last few seasons. He is 33 years old but still generated a good 10.5% pressure rate and four sacks while playing only 50% of the snaps. I wouldn’t overpay for someone of his age but he can be a quality rotational piece.
David Onyemata could offer up decent value among the mid tier guys as he finished an impressive 17th among DTs in pass rush win rate. He also graded among the top 10 in run defense and although he is 34 years old, he enters as a very consistent rotation option.
Browns Options: The Browns clearly prioritize the DT postion with the usage of high picks recently on Mason Graham and Mike Hall to go with the FA signings of Maliek Collins, Shelby Harris and Mo Hurst. I would imagine the Browns would dip their toe in the veteran DT market but not sure its even prior to the summer. All of those signings (Collins, Hurst, Harris) came well after the initial wave of free agent signings. I would expect again the Browns to sit out the expensive portion of early FA for DTs and instead try and pick off a value or two when the dust settles. Onyemata or even a former high pick (#33) in Logan Hall at age 26 is something they could consider. Hall will be dirt cheap and in the mold of Joe Tryon last season but won’t be in high demand. Onyemata not only has solid production but coming from ATL where Browns DC Mike Rutenberg came from is an added bonus.
VOID Players:
Summary:
LB is always the area where teams can find maybe the most value vs using draft capital. There are plenty of quality names all throughout the board that teams can grab and not cost an arm or a leg. Devin Lloyd is the top name and is projected to get nearly $20m per year. He has been a solid run defender for his career but out of nowhere he excelled in coverage in 2025, including five INTs. He turned into a playmaker at the absolute right time, heading into his 2nd contract. I personally would not pay most any off ball LB this kind of money and it should be noted that after posting a 91 PFF grade, 2nd highest in the NFL, after the first five weeks of the season, Lloyd really tailed off the rest of the way. He was still solid (74 PFF grade) but ranked just 14th the rest of the way. His coverage grades fell off a cliff and matched his prior three seasons in the NFL. His 58.7 coverage grade ranked 40th among LBs. It feels like those first five games were way more of an aberration than what a team should expect moving forward and not a profile I would want to pay anywhere near his market price. We will see if the Browns pay up for Devin Bush but he has really excelled in that Browns scheme the last two seasons. Can he match that elsewhere is a big question teams have to ask themselves. Demario Davis is incredibe at age 37, still playing at a top 10 LB level in the league.
Some good values could come from the group of Leo Chenal, Kaden Ellis and Alex Anzalone. Chenal is super intersting considering he is only 26 years old and is the best coverage LB outside of the high priced guys (Bush, Lloyd, Davis). He has earned strong PFF grades throughout his career with three straight seasons of 75+. Bobby Wagner is still chugging along at age 36 and has been an elite run defender even in the twilight of his career. Unfortunately, he is an atrocious coverage LB at this stage in his career and teams do everything they can to get him into space. I can see a team looking for an adult in the middle of the defense to go after Wagner to help the locker room. Maybe a team like Cincinnati gives him a call?
Browns Options: This is totally dependant on whether they re-sign Bush and/or Jerome Baker, both of whom are available in the market. If both walk then they are baren outside of Schwesinger and Diabate. The Browns very likely will be active in the LB market, but with Schwesinger entrenched in the middle of the defense for years to come, they won’t break the bank to add to that position. The fact that Mike Rutenberg is the new DC and is coming over from the Falcons automatically makes Kaden Eliss a potential high priority replacement for Bush. He played virtually every snap for ATL last season and while Elliss is limited in coverage, he has excelled in that scheme in rushing the passer. He finished 2nd among LBs with 30 pressures and added four sacks. He clearly understands the system and can help the defense immediately. A veteran who could potentially make some sense is Quincy Williams from the Jets. Williams had a couple of really nice seasons under LB coach at the time Mike Rutenberg, but fell off a cliff last season (45 PFF grade, worst coverage LB in the NFL). He was terrible in coverage which could ultimately end up preventing the Browns from signing him, but if it was scheme related and they can bring him in for a 1 year prove it deal, Rutenberg may be able to get that good play out of him again.
Summary: CB is typically not a good position to attack in FA and this year’s class is pretty weak. Jamel Dean is likely the best CB available and at age 30, is a big risk to give big money to. Jaylen Watson will get a lot of attention as well as he has played very well as a later round pick in the Steve Spagnuola scheme in KC. However, buyer beware, as virtually every KC DB who has left the Chiefs has failed in their next stop. Tariq Woolen is a bit of a head case and is already 27 years old. He fell out of favor in SEA and if you can’t make it work with Mike Macdonald, I have a hard time believing a big FA deal will be motivation going forward.
James Pierre came out of absolutely nowhere to generate the best season of his career by a mile at age 30 (89.7 coverage grade). Teams will have to weigh how replicable that is but for the right price it’s worth finding out.
Browns Options: The Browns are pretty set at outside CB with Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell entrenched as the starters. Martin Emerson is likely leaving. However, the slot CB position is a strong need with Myle Harden potentially a cut candidate in camp with how bad he has played so far. His 44.5 coverage grade last season is not acceptable and the Browns will likely attack the slot market in FA and/or the draft. Between FA and the draft, the Browns could be looking at 2-3 new CBs who will be in the rotation. Unfortunately, the slot CB market is very weak with Alontae Taylor and Dee Alford as the top options. Taron Johnson, who was just released by the Bills, also vaults into potentially the #1 slot CB option. He finished 4th in lowest yards per snap and allowed the 13th lowest QB rating while covering in the slot last year. The Browns could look to the veteran Johnson, if the price is reasonable. Alford is another ex Falcons player under Rutenberg which automatically makes him an option. He allowed the 3rd lowest QB rating while in coverage in the slot in the NFL but the 7th highest yards per snap. Alford is not likely to command much money at all and as a depth piece who can also serve as a slot CB, he is an option. The Browns are likely to add in the draft or via trade as well.
VOID Players:
Summary: Along with LB, Safety is the best position along the defense to find strong value in the FA market. The Rams just gave Kam Curl a healthy $12M aav deal so he is off the market. But Coby Bryant, Bryan Cook and Jaylinn Hawkins should see a strong market. Alohi Gilman played well in Baltimore following the trade from LA and is once of the better coverage Safeties in this class.
Maybe my favorite value of the entire class is Jalen Thompson from Arizona. He is as consistent as it comes, posting six straight seasons with a PFF grade between 65-71. He is only 27 years old and gives the Safety room a strong floor. He is very solid in coverage (64-77 coverage grades in three straight seasons) and played nearly 250 snaps in the slot last season. I would pass up spending up on the top names and rather wait for Thompson in the 2nd wave.
Browns Options: Grant Delpit has been very solid in his career for the Browns but is in the final year of his deal and they just tendered Ronnie Hickman so he is likely back. I do think adding to the room for depth with Rayshan Jenkins a UFA (26% snap share) and will be something they look for in the draft and not as likely in FA. If the Browns do want to add to the Safety position and also help solve some slot issues, Jalen Thompson clearly is my favorite mid tier option. I just doubt they’d spend the kind of money he can earn in the market. It is more likely they look to find a Jenkins replacement as a rotation backup in that same mold. That would likely come later in FA when the dust settles. Guys at the bottom of the FA list is where they are likely to look in that case.
