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2026 MASTERS TOURNAMENT 

Course Details

Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia

Par 72

Length: 7,545 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

 

Where historical Masters champions have come from and where last year’s champion, Rory Mcilroy, fit:

  • Every winner since 2010 has entered the Masters ranked in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Top 25 in 14 straight Masters (Rory #2).  Since 2017, among the non-LIV players, only Dylan Fritelli (100th in 2020) and Lee Westwood (67th in 2016) finished inside the top 5 and entered the Masters outside of the top 45 in the OWGR.

 

  • 17 straight Masters winners had a top 20 finish in one of their five prior pre Masters events. (Rory finished 5th at the Houston Open the event prior to the 25 Masters)

 

  • Every winner besides Danny Willet in 2016 has come into the event ranked in the top 100 in driving distance, which is essentially tour average. This is important because Augusta plays longer than its stated yardage distance Last year, Rory entered the Masters ranked 6th in driving distance. 

 

  • Because of the way Augusta is shaped and the location of the greens, the ability to hit high shots and land them safely on the green, while generating enough distance is of utmost importance. Each winner since 2010 has ranked inside the top 80 in the PGA’s distance to apex stat. (Rory #3)

 

  • This is not a tournament to back a player making their debut as no debutant has won the Masters since 1979. Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 is still the only debutant to win the Masters and experience is typically key. Spieth (2nd) and Zalatoris (2nd) are the only debutants to even finish inside the top 15 among the elites since 2015.

 

  • Every winner since 2010 had finished in the top 40 at a prior Masters at least once. (Rory finished top 40 13 different  times he had played Augusta previously). 

 

  • Every winner since 2010 came into the Masters ranked in the top 100 in strokes gained on approach and only three players (Willett, Sergio and Schwartzel) ranked outside of the top 44. Seven straight winners have entered top 30 in SG APP (Rory #19). 

 

  • Putting is very difficult at Augusta and is difficult for most every player. That essentially neutralizes any advantage that a great putter would have over others that struggle. To put this in perspective, three recent winners- Scheffler in 2024, Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Sergio Garcia in 2017, are notorious for struggling in putting. Scottie came into the 2024 Masters ranked just 97th in SG putting,  Matsy ranked 166th in strokes gained putting heading into the Masters prior to his win in 2021, and in fact, finished the weekend 23rd among the field in strokes gained putting and still won. Sergio was 193rd in putting heading into his winning Masters season of 2017. Will Zalatoris, Corey Conners and Cam Champ all finished top 10 here in 2021 and came into the event outside of the top 100 in SG putting. It’s hard to say just totally ignore putting stats but it’s hard to put much emphasis in trying to predict who will conquer those Augusta greens. Last year was a rarity where many of the game’s better putters that season had finished highly at the Masters.

 

  • Being able to manage around the tricky greens of Augusta are always a key factor. 14 straight champions have a positive strokes gained around the green during the year of their Masters victory. 13 straight winners and 14 of the last 16 ranked top 55 in strokes gained around the green in the season of their victory (Rory 2nd). 

 

  • The key almost every year is playing well from Tee to Green. Recent winners like Rory, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth are excellent from tee to green.  In fact, 14 straight and 15 of the last 16 winners, have come into Masters week ranked inside the top 25 on tour in SG tee to green. *Note: Two winners (Willet in 2016 and Scott in 2013) only participated in two (Willet) and three (Scott) PGA events that season prior to the Masters and were not on the official stat rankings. But in their limited events, both ranked #1 in the field in T2G heading into the Masters. (Rory #2). To be fair, Justin Rose lost in the Playoff last year and was just 95th in T2G. His experience and prior success definitely played a big role in his contention.

**NOTE: This includes PGA players ONLY due to lack of PGA stats for the LIV players.

Top 10 Recent History:

  • There have been 99 players who have finished in the top 10 (includes ties for 10th place), since 2017. 91 golfers who have been PGA members and eight (Mickelson, Koepka, Reed in 23 + 25, Cam Smith, Hatton and Dechambeau in 24 + 25) have finished in the top 10 from LIV.

 

  • All but six of the 91 PGA golfers who finished top 10 since 2017, were ranked inside the top 45 of the World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Dylan Fritelli (100th) in 2020, is the only PGA golfer since 2017, who has finished inside the top 5 (tied for 5th) when ranked outside of the top 45 in the OWGR. Last year, Zach Johnson (289th) finished tied for 8th.  The LIV players make this a bit tricky as their OWGRs plummeted during the season prior to the Masters in reality were not indicative of their true ratings. All eight players who finished top 10 the last three seasons while at LIV are considered top 45 level players. This includes guys like Patrick Reed and Bryson Dechambeu who have finished top 10 at the Masters twice in the last three years.

 

  • Seven players in the last nine Masters have finished in the top 10 in their Augusta debuts. Besides CT Pan in 2020, the other five were ranked in the OWGR top 45 at the time. Last year, no debutants finished inside the top 10, breaking a short two year streak.

 

  • Only Frittelli in 2020 and Cameron Young in 2023 have made a top 10 without having made the cut at a prior Masters tournament (excludes those making their debuts) since 2017.

 

  • 65 of the 99 top 10 spots (66%) in the last nine Masters are represented by the same players. Last year, all 10 players inside the top 10 had a prior top 10 at the Masters. There is typically a lot of redundancy among the top 10 and prior form at Augusta is extremely corelated to success.

 

  • Since 2017, 80 of 89 players (90%) with available stats, finished in the top 10 and also came into the Masters ranked in the top 95 in strokes gained Tee to Green. Since 2017, 80 of 89 players (90%) with available stats, finished in the top 10 and also came into the Masters ranked in the top 95 in strokes gained Tee to Green. 56% came in top 95 in T2G and also had a prior top 10 at Augusta. 73% had just a prior top 10 at Augusta.

 

  • Using this data, my model identified 32 PGA golfers in the field that had the highest likelihood of finishing inside the top 10 at last year’s Masters tournament. *Note: Because the LIV golfers have goofy world golf ranks and no PGA data, I excluded them. 26 of those 32 (81%) PGA golfers made the cut, and among just the 8 of the PGA golfers who finished inside the top 10 (LIV players are excluded), seven (88%) came from this group. Two others came from LIV (Dechambeau and Reed). Only Sungjae IM finished inside the top 10 that would not fit my model. Now you might think that these are likely the chalkiest golfers in the field but it also included three different players (Justin Rose, Jason Day and Corey Conners) who all came into the Masters at odds greater than 50/1. Rose was 100/1 and Day 70/1.