Generally speaking, paying at the high end of the Free Agent market has historically been a poor return on investment for teams. The goal is to get at least 2-3 productive years to pay off the investment but most times NFL teams don’t see the bang for their buck. Whether it be underwhelming production or frankly injuries due to the nature of many FAs on their 3rd and 4th contracts, it is difficult to build a sustainable roster by using FA as the main tool.Â
GMs like Howie Roseman have laid the blueprint to how Free Agency and the Draft should complement each other. Attacking the most premium position groups (QB, WR, T, ED, pass rushing DT, CB) should be reserved mainly for the Draft. This is mainly due to the fact that teams rarely let the better players at those positions even reach Free Agency and the fact that it costs so much to sign players at those positions. This concept, commonly referred to as “surplus value”, it the gap between the contract value of a player in the draft on a rookie deal and his actual value to the team. You are spending out of your shoes for the best guys at QB and pass rusher for example, that if you can find those guys at a young age in the draft and on a rookie contract, the advantage is massive. That does not mean that you can’t find cheaper options at those positions in free agency, but the probability is lower to find a top end starter. If you are going to pick up guys at premium positions in free agency, you want to find useful backups with upside. And you want to find the guys who were able to walk on teams that are cap strapped. For example, a few years ago, ED Trey Hendrickson was allowed to walk by the Saints mainly bc they had good edge rushers on the roster (Cam Jordan, Marcus Davenport) and they are perpetually under the gun from a cap perspective. On 90% of other teams, Hendrickson would never have seen the light of day at his age. Last season, Miami let ED Andrew Van Ginkle walk in FA bc they had Bradley Chubb on a big deal and the cap situation was a mess. They ended up drafting Chop Robinson anyway so were ok to let AVG hit free agency as a part time starter. The Vikings signed him and he was outstanding a year ago. That is where you want to attack if you are going to spend at those premium positions, albeit a rarity.
Where the smartest GMs make their hay in free agency is filling in the gaps at positions like RB, TE, interior OL, LB and S. And picking off undervalued players at those positions on an annual basis to supplement the players at the most impactful premium positions from the draft and currently on your roster is the ideal mix. No better example of this was just last year when the Eagles spent just $3M on a 1 year deal for LB Zach Baun. He turned into a DPOY candidate and obviously a Super Bowl winner. Its not easy to hit to that degree but even guys who turned into nice role players for cheap like TE Mike Gisecki, LB Blake Cashman and G Kevin Zeitler are perfect examples of FA hits.
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*BROWNS*: I am a Browns fan and will try and put a spin on potential additions at the areas of need. They will not be overspending so likely they will be trying to find undervalued assets.
Summary: Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers headline the QB group and probably are the only sure fire starters by the team that signs them. I was as big of a Darnold suppporter as you will find the last few years and especially with the Vikings, but it is going to be very hard pressed for him to repeat his 2024 season. He was not franchised tagged but sounds like there is at least a small shot he returns with MIN. To me that would only be the case if the team is worried that JJ McCarthy is not going to be full recovered in time for training camp. Do they want to spend at that position for multiple years when Darnold may not even be the starter? Hard to believe and I imagine a team like Seattle or Tennessee could throw real dollars to entice him to leave. Does not sound like the new Titans GM is in love with any of these QBs in the draft and new regimes have longer runways to find their QB of the future. So no need to panic like a GM on the hot seat like Joe Schoene would be. So I can see the Titans signing Darnold and pairing him with a QB later in the draft like Jaxson Dart or Quinn Ewers while auctioning off the #1 pick to NY or CLE. Rodgers was decent with NY (19th in EPA, 18th in PFF grade) but has no mobility and you have to deal with his attitude. He will not be for every HC/team. Likeliest landing spot sounds like the Giants although they would likely have to committ to Rodgers as the season starter even if they draft a QB. I am not sure he is the right fit for that situation but whenever you have a desperate GM whose interests are misaligned with their franchise, that is what you typically get. Rodgers as a sleeper option in Minnesota if Darnold leaves and they want to ensure a good starter in case McCarthy isn’t ready is interesting. In a dome, a division he knows well and with those weapons,=and KOC, that is one of the best landing spots for someone like Rodgers. The Steelers would be the 3rd potential option for him as well.
My best guess is a guy like Justin Fields goes to the Jets and is paired with a rookie, Russ Wilson is either back in PIT or competes for a starting job in NY with the Giants. Although it sounds like Darnold could be a top option in SEA with Geno in LV now, don’t be stunned if the Seahawks go after Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins. SEA OC Klint Kubiak coached Carr last year in NO and could be viewed as a slight upgrade to Geno in this offense. Cousins has experience in a Kubiak offense and is excellent in those under center play action schemes. He also could wait out free agency so he is guaranteed a starting spot somewhere after the draft.
Best Values: If Jimmy G is willing to leave the McVay system in LA, he leaps up the page as a good one year bridge for a team and won’t cause any problems as a backup. Even deeper down the list, Jarrett Stidham is a QB who is not a full time starter but is an excellent backup who has shown he can play well and win games if needed in a pinch. He also has a great pedigree (former 5 star QB coming out of HS), good tools and is still only 29 years old. If a team wanted to only go the vet route, having a QB competition with Stidham and say someone like Russell Wilson isn’t a bad option.Â
Browns Options: I think the Browns will 100% draft a QB inside the top 33. With that being said, they will need a veteran in FA to either bridge the rookie early in the season or to at least ensure a decent insurance policy at the position. I personally do not think Cousins wants to sign in FA with the chance that his team like the Browns also draft a QB early, as he witnessed last year in ATL. He wants to start and I think he waits out the draft. I think the Browns should go back to the Jacoby Brissett well as the veteran stop gap who is a great teammate and clearly had prior success in the Stefanski offense. Pair him with Cam Ward/ Shadeur Sanders and the Browns have at least a decent plan going forward at the position. If not Brissett I certainly can see guys like Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz or even Josh Dobbs as that vet. Stidham and Jimmy G are fine as well.
Summary: This is a really bad FA class a year after a completely outlier group that included Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard. Someone will take a shot on Najee Harris bc teams love 1st round pedigrees but he is what he is and is a 4.0 ypc level two down RB. He shouldn’t get good money but I think some old school GM will spend it on him. Rico Dowdle is the gem in this class and the only one that I would give a real contract to among this group. I am stunned that Dallas does not just re-sign him and not overdraft an RB in the top two rounds. He is still only 27 with just 333 total career carries and finished 13th in ypc, and 15th in yards after contact. After he took over as the starter in week 9, Dowdle finished the season 5th in rush yards in the NFL. Nick Chubb is also an interesting option but at age 30 and off the catasrophic injury in 2023, who knows what he has left. Lets also remember that he is really only a two down RB so at best he will get an incentive laden contract and will likely split time in a backfield. Look for Mike Tomlin and the Steelers to be interested imo.
Best Values: Ty Johnson can make the case that he is the best pass receiving option among the group and is coming off a 2024 campaign where he averaged 5.0 ypc and a 73.3 PFF grade. Johnson finished 8th among RBs in explosive run rate and in the pass game ranked #1 in yards per reception at 14.5 and 10th in PFF receiving grade among RBs. He is not a starting NFL RB but is fine as a nice part time guy who does a lot of the dirty work.
Browns Options: I don’t really see a strong option for the Browns but if they do take a chance someone like Kenneth Gainwell who can be a solid 3rd down RB in the pass game is a decent option but overall I do not see the Browns doing much outside of the draft in FA.
Summary:Â Â Combining both the WR and TE class bc its so stunningly bad. I think Tee Higgins goes back to CIN so not much to discuss with the best available (potentially) WR on the board. Otherwise, Chris Godwin is next up and should see a big bump in a contract vs expectations, due to how bad this class is this season. He would fit nicely with a couple of teams like Jacksonville (Liam Cohen connection from TB), the Rams (Cooper Kupp replacement in the slot) and in NE where they have plenty of money to burn. Davante Adams is next up and he would fit perfectly in LA with the Chargers and Ladd McConkey fielding the slot position nicely. The question could end up being if you are LA, would you rather give up a 2nd (?) round pick and have to pay DK Metcalf $30M+ or just sign Adams to a 2-3 year contract? I think Adams is still an excellent WR and finished 14th among WRs last year in ESPNs open score metric while ending top 30 in the league in yards per route. Further down the WR list, I swear I have had Darius Slayton as a good value option in three straight off seasons and here we are again. For some reason he never gets many interested looks in the trade or FA department but he might finally be had for a cheap price. I would love to see what he can produce with real QB play one time.
Buyer beware on someone like Dyami Brown who blossomed into a respectable WR last year with Jayden Daniels. He was just 120th in open score rank and only caught three of nine contested targets all season. I think he will get overpaid and is nothing more than a #3/4 WR at best. Also, Amari Cooper looked completely washed last season and at age 31, this is not the time to think he can all of the sudden rejuvenate his career. He finished 134th in open score rank and disapearred at the end of the season in a great offense and with an elite QB in Josh Allen.
At TE I will be brief, I think Evan Engram is an excellent option for a team that needs strong receiver work in the slot and seams. He still has the potential to be highly productive and my guess is he gets overpaid in this market with a poor set of TE options. I would love to see the Chargers sign Engram and give Herbert a speedy option at TE.Â
Best Values: Not a ton of great value here but a couple of guys to consider in the bargain bin would be Noah Brown, Tylan Wallace and Nick Westbrook-Ikihne. I had Brown as a deep value in last year’s column and he continues to be the type of #3/4 WR who loves to do the dirty work while producing efficiently when asked to catch the ball. He posted solid PFF grades (70.7), ranks 5th in this class in yards per route and is an excellent blocker. He also finished top 35 in open score. Wallace is just 26 years old and was never really given a chance to shine in Baltimore. He only saw 15 targets but did catch 13 of them for 241 yards with an impressive 67% success rate. He has not dropped a pass on 28 career targets. In addition, he brings solid punt return skills to the table and his return TD in 2023 beat the Rams in OT. I think he is the type of low end, low risk WR who is worth a flier. Westbrook-Ikihne caught an inordinate amount of TDs last year and you would think teams would not overpay for that outlier production but you never know. If he is overvalued than no thanks but for a deep threat who can also block well, he is a guy who can outproduce expectations if given a chance.
Browns Options: I do not expect the Browns to really do much from this WR class but maybe taking a flier on Wallace is the route they will go on the cheap. Otherwise, they likely grab one or two WRs in the draft.
At TE, Jordan Akins likely will leave in FA so the Browns do need a 2nd option either in FA or in the draft. Hard to find much in the way of interesting targets but potentially someone like Mo Alie-Cox is worth a look as a decent red zone option in the pass game.
Summary:Â Â I am certainly far from an OL evaluator so there will not be an Xs and Os, technique level trench analysis that you can find with many other smarter NFL analysts out there. On the surface, as you would expect, there are no franchise level Tackles out there as it is very rare for one of those to be available in FA. But finding solid Guards and Centers in FA has historically been where you want to shop the most and hat looks like the case again this year. It obviously will depend on style and scheme of the offensive systems being run but at C you have solid starters available in Drew Dalman, Coleman Shelton, Evan Brown and Ryan Kelly out there. Kelly is especially intriguing as he was a four time Pro Bowler, including in 2023. In 2024, he appeared in just 10 games due to neck and knee injuriesand is one reason why the Colts let him walk. He wasn’t great in 2024 but was still solid enough to be a potential nice signing for a team looking for a captain level player who should hopefully be healthier in 2025.
Kevin Zeitler is the prize at Guard this season after posting tremendous grades last year in Detroit. It feels like he has been in the NFL for 20 years but at age 35 he likely has 1-2 more good years left for a Playoff contender. Will Fries should have an interesting market at just age 27. A former 7th round pick, he struggled for a few seasons before posting elite level grades in the 268 snaps he played last season before a leg injury ended the year. He was 6th in PFF run block grades and 4th overall among Guards in his short season. Will be interesting to see how a team will value him and if he will get paid based on his upside.
At Tackle, Ronnie Stanley is the best of the bunch but I do expect him to be re-signed by the Ravens. If not, then he will be in high demand and likely overpaid by a desperate team. There are other Tackles with plenty of experience like Cam Robinson, Dan Moore, etc that if a team can pluck for decent value after the first wave of OL are signed could be worth a contract.Â
Best Values:Â At G I think Teven Jenkins is interesting considering he is just 27 years old and posted 75+ PFF grades overall and in pass blocking last season. His 3.4% pressure rate allowed was one of the lowest in the NFL last season. At LT, Jaylon Moore is another young guy who has upside and in limited games the last two seasons, has really produced well. He has increased his PFF pass block grade in each of the last two seasons and has allowed just two sacks in his last 376 pass block snaps, dating back to 2022. He has also allowed a solid 4.8% pressure rate in that stretch as well, which would rank as a top 25 rate among all LT and RT in the NFL. last season.
Browns Options: The Browns OL is in pretty good shape for 2025 with G Joel Bitonio announcing recently that he is playing another season. Between Bitonio, Wyatt Teller and Ethan Pocic, the interior of the OL is set. They did draft Zak Zinter in the 3rd round last season as the heir apparent to Bitonio but he was awful last season in limited snaps. He was coming off a bad leg injury so he does have a decent excuse. The Browns do have Dawand Jones at LT and Jack Conklin at RT penciled in for now but both could be up for grabs. In fact, it would not stun me if Conklin was designated as a post June 1 cut if the Browns really need to create cap space. That lever would save $15M for the Browns with only a $3M dead cap hit. Not saying that will happen but it is possible and could lead to the Browns drafting multiple Tackles in the draft and/or picking up a veteran RT in FA. Looking ahead, Bitonio, Teller, Pocic and Conklin all could be gone in 2026 as none have any guaranteed money tied to them. I fully expect the Browns to use a top three round selection in the draft for a LT (Donovan Jackson and Josh Conerly at #33 are decent options) and could grab another Guard as well. I do not think they are going to overspend at either position in FA this season but Jaylon Moore is very intriguing if they take a chance on an up and coming young LT. The Browns can certainly find cheap veteran options along the OL as well after the first and second wave of OL get overpaid in the market. That is likely where I see them taking a flier or two among the veterans.
Summary:Â Â There is typically a buyer beware with such a premium position group like EDGE rusher in the FA market. With the recent releases of veterans like Joey Bosa and Harold Landry, there are at least a few more proven options out there. Bosa jumps out as a guy that teams will want to go after but his injury history continues to be a black mark on a career that was headed for a gold jacket. He is not nearly the same player he used to be but still was able to generate a solid 11% pressure rate last season. However, his 64.8 PFF pass rush grade was the only time in his career under 70 and the first season under 80 since 2018. Amazingly, Bosa has yet to turn 30 so getting him on a potential one year prove it deal is extremely attractive for a Playoff contender. His ex teammate Khalil Mack is 34 years old but still generating impressive pass rush metrics. His 90.2 PFF grade is easily tops in this class as was his 78.9 Pass Rush grade. His 9 sacks are certainly still solid and a 17% sack to pressure rate shows that he still has some meat left on the bone to rack up more sacks.Â
Josh Sweat is likely to garner the most money in this market, mainly due to his age (28) and his dominant performance vs Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the Super Bowl (2.5 sacks). He is not one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL but he is going to get paid like it by somebody. You will hear the same suitors for most all of these pass rushers including the Commanders, Patriots, Bears, Falcons and Cardinals at the top of the list. I believe Arizona and Washington will get their hands on Sweat and the other may look to the trade market for Trey Hendrickson. I would peg Bosa and Mack to more Super Bowl caliber defenses like Buffalo, Green Bay and Detroit. I know there is talk of Bosa pairing up with his brother and certainly on the surface that makes sense, but I imagine he’d have to take a discount considering SF is shedding salary to extend Brock Purdy. Another intriguing name who is a couple notches below the top pass rushers available is Dante Fowler. He is off an impressive 11 sack season where he generated a 13% pressure rate and finished 8th in the NFL in pass rush win rate. The Commanders have a ton of cap space and he goes back with HC Dan Quinn so would not be surprised if he returns.
Best Values:Â The best value potentially in all of free agency this season is Malcolm Koonce. Of course, I could get surprised and a team throws out a bigger number than expected but Koonce is just 27 years old and is coming off a lost season where his season ended before it started due to a knee injury. But in 2023 he broke out in his 3rd season, with 8 sacks and a 78 PFF pass rush grade. It was a shame he got hurt last summer as he ended 2023 with a bang, garnering six sacks and 19 pressures in the final four games of that season. He was a terror on Christmas Day in 2023, generating a ridiculous 9 pressures and sacking Mahomes three times.Â
The other potential value option is Barron Browning, who split time between Denver and Arizona last season. The former Buckeye only sacked the QB twice last season but his underlying metrics paint a different story. His 12% pressure rate ranked inside the top 20th percentile of qualified ED rushers last season but his 8%Â sack to pressure rate fell well below the group average of 15%. In fact, there were only four other ED rushers with a pressure rate of 12%+ but a sack rate of <10% last season. In 2022 and 2023, Browning generated leave average levels of sack/pressure ratios at 15% in each season. I expect him to see strong positive sack regression next season and at age 26 is an attractive cheap option.
Browns Options: The Browns situation at ED is clearly in flux with the big Myles Garrett trade decision looming. The Browns should be able to pencil in 3rd year man Isiaiah McGuire in one starting spot for now after a solid 2024 campaign (11% pressure rate, 3rd in the NFL in run defense grade). Ogbo Okoronkwo came off a solid 2023 season and put up a dud in 2024. He too could be a post June 1 cut option as the Browns would save over $5M. Alex Wright is coming off a season ending injury and should be part of the pass rush rotation. But the Browns certainly can and will always pursue more pass rush help. The Browns have a type that I have discussed a lot in the past when it comes to these edge rushers. In FA, they likely attack the lower end of the market but especially will focus on those pass rushers who are undervalued based on poor sack numbers but good underlying pressure rates. They also have always looked for guys who generated above median level 10 yard splits prior to their draft season (exlcuding older vets). I discuss all of these factors in prior Browns posts that you can check out here (https://clevanalytics.com/2024-nfl-browns-fa/).
With that being said a few guys could be options for the Browns if they decide to go this route in FA. Koonce would be an awesome get for the Browns but I do think he will be slightly above their budget. His contract projection is difficult so its really a matter of if the Browns are within his range. Browning leaps off the page as a top option and checks all the boxes the Browns look for. He is still young (26) and as discussed above is undervalued from a sack to pressure ratio. It has been a few years but he absolutely crushed his pre draft workouts and not only generated an elite level 9.98 relative athletic score (RAS) but his 1.56 10 yard split is in the top 10th percentile of all pass rushers and LBs in the last 20 years. Another potential target would be former Bengal Joseph Ossai. He too is young (25) but is coming off a sub par season. His 9% pressure rate is ok but posted a poot 58 PFF pass rush grade with five sacks. He was solid as a rookie three years ago (11.5% pressure %, 4 sacks) but did not see much action in 2023. He does possess elite athleticism (9.48 RAS) and his 1.58 10 yard split at the comvbine certainly qualifies as great initial burst. He is a guy who the Browns can wait on after big money has been spent in this class and can likely get him for bargain bin cost.
Summary: This DT group is not all that deep in talent but does have a headliner. Milton Williams is the big headliner after a breakout 2024 season (13% pressure rate, 8 sacks) for the Super Bowl champs. I recall him destroying the combine before he was drafted and sky rocketing up the boards. He has all the athelticism and tools to be an elite DT pass rusher and he started to prove it this season. He is only 26 years old and it does not look like Philly will be able to afford him just like Javon Hargrave a few years back. One drawback is that he has only been a part time player with the Eagles, and he only played 48% of snaps this season. His 91 PFF pass rush grade was the first time in his career he generated anything above a 63 grade so a team signing him to a huge contract is taking the leap that this was more the norm and not the outlier. I look for the Cardinals to be heavily involved in the Williams sweepstakes with the Jonathan Gannon connection. He was in the draft room when Philly drafted Williams. Everyone can use an interior pass rush so he will be coveted. The Chargers could have some interest as well with a very weak DT group and Poona Ford available as well in FA. Speaking of Ford, he is perpetually an underrated DT in this league and is coming off an excellent season. Poona has always been much more of a run stuffing DT than a pass rusher, so his value could be depressed a bit. But still a nice DT option for a team out there. Calais Campbell at age 39 is still somehow playing at a high level. He feels like the perfect guy for Dan Campbell and the Lions to plug into the middle of that DL front.
We recently also saw two big name DT get released in Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. Hargrave is 32 years old and coming off a season ending torn triceps injury. But he had a nice 2023 campaign in which he generated 8 sacks and a top 15 pass rush win rate during the Niners Super Bowl run. He did tail off as the season went along, generating just two sacks in the final eight games of the season and his PFF pass rush grade dipped from elite level to outside the top 30 DTs in the 2nd half of that season. For the right price, however, he can definitely be a valuable player on a Playoff team. Allen is a potential buyer beware here. He is a big name player and has played well for periods of his career, but he is not in that elite pass rush group. He has been solid and posted three seasons of 81+ PFF pass rush grades between 2020-2022. However, he has seen his grades dip three straight seasons, culminating in a mediocre 2024 season (68.5) with only three sacks. His pressure numbers (10.5%) were fine but we likely see a team overpay him based on his name more than recent performance.
Best Values: I am surprised that Levi Onwuzurike is available at age 27 but he is a guy that I think teams will go after with his skill set. He does have a checkered injury history and missed all of 2022 and a portion of 2023. He flourished last season with an 11% pressure rate and the Lions DL played much better with him in the lineup. BJ Hill is as consistent a DT as you will ever see and I like his value as a high floor player. He has posted six straight seasons with a PFF grade of 67+ and pass rush grades in the mid 60s for five straight years. He has also generated four straight seasons with a pressure rate between 7-8.5%. You know exactly what you are getting from him and is a nice plug and play option, at the right price of course.
Browns Options: The Browns have tried to supplement the drafting of Mike Hall with FA pickups in Shelby Harris, Mo Hurst, Dalvin Tomlinson and Quinton Jefferson at DT the last few years. Hall got hurt in the season finale and was putting together a nice end of the season run. He still should be penicled in as one starting DT this season. Jefferson was a disaster and Harris/Hurst either played subpar or got hurt. Tomlinson is likely in the lineup for one more year before the Browns move on. They can certainly use a rotational DT in FA and potentially one in the draft as well. A guy they were linked to two offseasons ago is available now again in OSU product Dre’Mont Jones. He switched over to DE with Seattle but is not really an edge rusher. I wonder if he goes back to gaining weight and into the DT position where he is more comfortable. He did generate a solid 12% pressure rate a season ago but was awufl against the run. His strong suit is definitely as a situational pass rusher inside. DJ Jones is another veteran option who is not great at any one thing but has just been a solid, steady DT for a number of seasons. He is 30 years old and likely just a part time player but would fit the mold of a Shelby Harris type signing later in FA if they go that route.
Summary: Maybe the one position I am least interested in each off season. The off ball LB position has become such a commodity of late that teams have started to resort to signing anyone who will take a short term deal at the team’s offering price. Its the same guys year after year that show up on this list and teams are just plugging in a different one each year. To be fair, teams likely get the most bang for their cheap buck at this position in FA and every once in a while they hit on gems like Zach Baun and even Blake Cashman last season. It rarely makes sense to pay up at this position in FA so don’t expect big ticket LBs in this class either. Probably the two biggest names are Dre Greenlaw and Nick Bolton. Greenlaw only played 34 snaps last season after his 2023 achilles tear in the Super Bowl but in that limited time was flying around and making plays. He looked every bit the part of the Pro Bowl caliber LB in prior seasons. At age 28, I can see a team throwing premium dollars at him. A team like Cincinnati can use someone like Greenlaw as an aggressive addition to a fairly lifeless defense. I could also see teams like Tennessee and Tampa take a shot on him to really beef up the middle of those defenses as well. Bolton is a solid, yet unspectacular, LB on the market coming from KC. He is not great at any one thing but is certainly a reliable LB and at just 25 years old, has a lot of juice left. If you are just looking for a thumper who can stop the run, both Elandon Roberts and Robert Spillane fills that role. Neither is good in coverage, however, so you may only be getting a two down LB.
Best Values: Jamien Sherwood is a really interesting option from the Jets. He is a former Safety who only played a role last year at LB due to the injuries to CJ Mosley. Sherwood finished 3rd in the NFL in tackles and graded out pretty well both in the run game and in pass coverage. He also played nearly 93% of the Jets defensive snaps.Â
Browns Options: A lot of what happens at LB for the Browns depends on the health status of JOK following his neck injury. As of today it does not sound promising and I guess they will have to go on the assumption that he may be out for a while. They have Jordan Hicks at the center of the defense and who played well last year and could bring back Devin Bush if its at a reasonable number. Otherwise, the Browns are pretty weak at the position. But this is mainly by design as they treat the LB position like they do RB. During his tenure, Andrew Berry has signed BJ Goodson ($2.4M- 1 year), Malcolm Smith ($1M- 1 year) and Walker ($3M- 1 year) and Jordan Hicks ($44M-4 years). Last year, Hicks was the biggest outlier from a resource perspective but I doubt they spend up yet again. The Browns absolutely covet more of a pass coverage LB than one who excels defending the run. For instance, Walker (41 PFF run D), Goodson (58.7 run D) and Smith (41.4 run D) all graded terribly against the run the season prior to signing with the Browns. Hicks was the exception (74.2). They all were very good tacklers, however, and none had a missed tackle rate above 10%. Sorting for guys with low missed tackle rates and above average coverage grades and Tyrel Dodson sticks out as a realistic option. At just 27 years old, he is excellent in coverage (82.9 coverage grade) but a really poor run defender (47.0). He finished 3rd in the NFL in coverage grade after finishing 2023 3rd as well. Otherwise, they could certainly look at the bargain basement bin in early summer to find someone like they did with Bush last off season.
Summary: The CB position is as weak as I have ever seen it this season. Considering how flimsy the CB position has been from year to year in the NFL, it is likely not smart to pay up in free agency and rather take some shots at guys looking to bounce back. The top option is likele DJ Reed followed by Carlton Davis. Neither is a #1 CB and both are likely to be overpaid in this market. We will see how Reed performs away from an elite CB like Sauce Gardner and likely will be elevated to a team’s shutdown CB tasked to stop opposing #1 WRs. I think the Raiders could be a strong option for Reed as he could look to reunite with Pete Carrol. Reed spent two seasons in Seattle and the Raiders, flush with cash, are very thin at the CB position. Davis saw a bit of a resurgence last season in Detroit but he is nearing 30 years old and injuries are taking a toll. Charvarius Ward will also receive strong interest, even after a poor 2024 season (58.2 coverage grade). A lot of that can be excused given the tragic death of his child. He clearly was not focused and it showed on the field after missing more than a month mid way thru the season. Teams are likely going to bank on a strong comeback season. He did make some statements that he would like to be closer to his Texas home with a clean slate. Depending on the status of Tre’von Diggs, the Cowboys could be a strong match.
Best Values: Isaiah Rodgers was the Eagles #4 CB last season and he played well in his limited snaps. This off a 2022 season in Indy when he finished 5th in PFF coverage grade. He missed all of 2023 due to a gambling suspension. If it wasn’t for the elite top three CBs in Philly, Rodgers could have started most anywhere else as a #2/3. I do not think he will get a big offer so he could hit big at a low price. Paulson Adebo is a nice option at a likely mid tier price at CB. He is still just in his mid 20s and at 6’1 has solid length at the position. He ranked 15th in coverage grade in 2023 and was on the ascent but broke his leg early last season derailing his year. The Saints are always cap strapped so even if they liked Adebo, it may not be feasible to bring him back.
Browns Options: The Browns went from one of if not the best CB groups in the NFL entering last season to a mid group today. Martin Emerson took a major step back from his rookie season and Greg Newsome also had a poor 2024 season. The Browns have never really dabbled much in the CB market under Andrew Berry and considering the lack of money available I am not sure how active they will be this season. Rodgers is a guy who could make sense considering his age and likely low end market. In addition, Berry will have good insight into him based on his brother’s involvement with the Eagles.Â
Summary: There are a bunch of veterans who can be solid starters for teams. Safety is one of the positions where free agency is a good tool for teams to fill in roster spots. This year this class is littered with guys who are solid players but coming off subpar seasons. Justin Reid is the best of the bunch and the most consistent free agent Safety. He is as reliable as it gets at the position and plenty of teams will bid for his services. Guys like Jevon Holland, Tre’von Moehrig and Talanoa Hufanga will have plenty of suitors. Holland and Moehrig came into the NFL in the same draft class and were two of the top three safeties off the board in that 2021 draft. Holland has been up and down in his four year career with two elite seasons (2021- 84.7 PFF grade, 2023- 90.4) and two bad seasons in between (2022- 67.2 and 2024- 63.0). Teams will definitely bet on his upside and he is one of the few guys in this class whose upside is top five Safety in the NFL. The Raiders could easily make a play here to help revamp their backend. Hufanga is the most intriguing Safety in this class. He has All-Pro upside like in 2022. He is a physical player but that has led to major injury issues. Hufanga tore his ACL in late 2023, missed the start of the 2024 season, then suffered a concussion mid last season. I wouldn’t be shocked if SF brings him back but if not he may end up with the best contract in the class.
Best Values: Julian Blackmon is my favorite mid tier Safety in this class with strong starting potential. He wasn’t great last year but both his PFF overall grade and coverage grades have improved each and every season since his rookie year. His tackling was poor last year after a solid 2023 and his 15% missed tackle rate ranked bottom 25th percentile last season. He is still a really nice starting Safety who should be attainable at a good price after the top guys get snagged.
Browns Options: The Browns cut Juan Thornhill and need to go back to the well to find their new starting FS along side Grant Delpit. Julian Blackmon absolutely fits that bill and would be a nice option for the reasons above. I was able to peg Thornhill as a top option for them two years ago as he checked the boxes they were looking for- young, athletic with good coverage grades. He is listed among the available CBs but Ifeatu Melifonwu is a potential low cost option as well. He has played both CB and Safety in his career and lately has played much more Free Safety. He is a tremendous athlete and it would not shock me if Berry and the Browns go back to the well on a guy with the elite athletic traits they typically covet (9.7 RAS).Â
