By: @Clevta and @picksixprick

Below is a preseason preview of the awards markets, including a profile of historical winners and analysis of this year’s candidates. Throughout the season, for premium subscribers, we’ll be providing updates on the awards markets, including risers and fallers and potential plays. 

Most Valuable Player

Profile of Winners: The profile for the MVP in recent history has been simple: be an elite quarterback and play for a team with a lot of wins.

• 12 straight and 17 of the last 18 MVPs have been QBs and those teams have averaged just over 13 wins per season.

• No MVP in the last 25 seasons came from a team with less than 11 wins and Matt Ryan in 2016 is the only MVP QB to win it with less than 12 wins in the last 20 years.

• The average preseason win total for MVP QBs since 2001 has been 10 wins and the median team Playoff odds has been -175nce 2009. Since 09 no QB has won MVP on a team with Playoff odds worse than +315 (Matt Ryan 2016). Ryan was the outlier in a number of categories and outside of him, Lamar and the Ravens at +170 in 2019 is the worst Playoff odds prior to the season for an MVP winner.

• Interestingly, five straight MVP winners have come on teams with -130 or better Playoff odds but none higher than -275 (Rodgers in 2021). In fact, among the last 15 QB MVP winners, only three have come from teams with higher than -275 Playoff odds (Brady in 2017, Manning in 2013 and Rodgers in 2011). Seven straight and nine of the last 10 QB winners have come on teams expected to at least be pretty good but not inside the top five best odds to make the Playoffs. It’s been a weird dynamic where the band is fairly narrow but defined on the types of teams these QBs have won from of late.

• Cam Newton is the only MVP to come from a team who won less than 8 games the prior season. Carolina won only 7 games in 2014. Interestingly, the markets did respect the Panthers potential going into that season with a win total of 8.5 and +160 Playoff odds.

• 13 off the last 18 QB winners were on teams who captured the 1 seed in their conference.

• Of the last 18 MVP QBs, only seven were 1st time winners (Brady 07, Rodgers 11, Newton 15, Ryan 16, Mahomes 18, Lamar 19, Allen 24.

• Since 2007 when Brady won it for the first time at age 30, the average age of first time winners has been right in the prime of most careers, at 27 years old. Allen was 28 last season when he won it for the first time. Of the 1st time winners since 07, the oldest first-time winner has been Matt Ryan at age 31. It’s much less likely that a veteran QB breaks through to win MVP for the first time after extended years in the NFL. Banking on guys in their mid 30s+ to raise the trophy for the first time feels like a stretch.

• Of the last 22 MVP QBs (as far as my data goes), none generated a negative EPA per drop back in the season prior to winning. Lamar Jackson at 0.00 in 2018 is the worst EPA the season prior to winning, although it was his rookie year and he only started seven regular season games. Cam Newton just barely was positive as well with a +0.01 in the season prior to him winning the award. Outside of those two outliers, each of the other 20 MVP QBs generated an EPA of +0.10 per drop back or better in the season prior to winning the award. Mahomes only took 43 snaps and started just one game in his rookie season prior to winning it in year two but at least it was a productive 43 snaps (+0.19). The average EPA/Drop back of the last 12 MVP QBs has been +0.19.

TA: Based on the parameters we have laid out above and the different teams I think can excel this season, I do think Patrick Mahomes is my favorite pick among the shorter odds. He is +600 at FD and +700 at DK. For him he had a “down” year in 2024 and think with an improved OL and hopefully a potentially excellent three WR group with Rice, Worthy and Brown, Mahomes can garner the stats to get strong consideration. KC has lacked explosive capabilities ever since Tyreek Hill left (27^th in explosive pass offense in 2024) and this young group offers so much upside down the field and after the catch.

In terms of a longer shot, I am going with Packers QB Jordan Love. He sits at consensus 25-1 at FD and DK but anything 20-1 or higher is a good price imo. I like Green Bay as a strong Playoff contender this season and with the addition of speedster Matthew Golden and the hope that 1-2 of the young WR group steps up this season, Love can really make a leap in 2025. His WRs let him down a lot last year and dropped passes at the 5^th highest rate in the NFL last season. He also had to deal with multiple injuries that derailed the start of his season and faced the single toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses. The defenses in the NFC North are tough but overall, the schedule of opposing defenses should lighten up this season. Between age, team strength, supporting cast and prior year EPA, he checks every box for past winners. Michael Penix Jr. at anything 50-1 or higher would be my biggest dark horse if you are looking for a major flier. He sits 75-1 at FD and that is a number I’d grab considering a top 10 offense that plays an easy schedule and 12 dome games this season.

Picksix Analysis: The market for the MVP is much more efficient than other awards so I can’t advocate for betting on any of the top dogs at price.  It’s hard to find longshots for MVP but I’d look in the weaker NFC where there could be a path to the one seed for a dark horse team. I could see guys like Michael Penix (60/1) or J.J. McCarthy (100/1) who have unknown ceilings and good supporting casts.

Offensive Player of the Year

Profile of Winners: Over the past several years, OPOY has morphed into the award for the best non-quarterback, so we’ll focus mostly on skill position players (RB or WR).  

• Since 2000, 9 QBs, 13 RBs, and 3 WRs have won this award, however, the last six winners have all been skill position players. All three WRs who have won have been within the past six years as pass rates have increased. QBs have still received votes for OPOY over the past 5 years, but the highest percentage of the votes any single QB received was just 37%.

• The last 13 RB winners led the league in either rush yards, rush TDs, or both. The three WR winners all led the league in receiving yards.
• The last 15 winners made the Playoffs, and their teams won 10 or more games, with an average of 12 wins per season.

• The average preseason win total for the winners’ teams has been nine, with a floor of six wins. Since 2000, 20 of 25 winners had a preseason win total of eight or more. Their teams have exceeded their win total by nearly three wins on average.

• There have been four players who won this award twice since 2000, but three of those were QBs and there hasn’t been a repeat winner since 2013. The last repeat skill position player was Marshall Faulk in 2000 and 2001.

• Of the 16 skill position winners since 2000, all were 28 or younger when they entered the season with an average age of 26. Last year’s winner, Saquon Barkley, was 27 years old when he won the award.

• Of the last 25 winners, only three were on teams with a new head coach. All three were skill position players though.

• I only have preseason odds for the last four winners which consisted of Barkley (22-1), McCaffery (15-1), Jefferson (12-1) and Kupp (80-1).

• None of the last 11 straight winners of this award even received a single vote the prior season. Three of the last four winners (Barkley, McCaffery and Kupp) were coming off injury shortened seasons with mediocre results.

• A rookie has never won this award.

TA: I am definitely leaning toward a WR in this market and the two guys I circled are Puka Nacua (20-1 DK) and Drake London (50-1 DK). I’d be fine with London down to 35-1 but Puka probably needs to be upper teens to justify. Both check the box in terms of being age 28 or younger and neither received a vote last season. Puka is underrated in my eyes but catches everything and is tough as nails. Cooper Kupp absorbed so many of Stafford’s red zone targets that even with Davante Adams in the mix, Nacua should see an uptick in those end zone looks. He finished #2 in receiving yards per game and #1 in yards per route last season. The only major question mark is if he can stay healthy enough to play in the 15+ games likely needed to rack up the aggregate stats to win this award. London is my favorite longer shot and in three games with Michael Penix at QB last season, London saw 39 targets and averaged 117 yards per game. Atlanta gets 12 dome games and London will face nine opponents who finished bottom 10 in pass EPA last season.

Picksix Analysis: It’s no surprise that last year’s winner and other top fantasy performers have the shortest odds. We have not seen a repeat skill position since 2001 and this is likely because the workload required to win this award is massive. You have to think it would be difficult for Saquon Barkley to match his efficiency and workload last season so I’m not considering him. At price, I don’t have much interest in any of the top names though Ja’Marr Chase and Jahmyr Gibbs certainly fit the profile of the type of players that would win this award. Given the uncertainty around J.J. McCarthy at QB, I can’t touch Justin Jefferson. All the quarterbacks are auto-cross-offs as well.

For receivers, I’m looking for complete target hoggs paired with at least league average QBs on potentially good offenses who can make the playoffs. I like both Nico Collins (17/1) and CeeDee Lamb (20/1) at price. Collins was on the trajectory to be a serious candidate for OPOY in 2024 before an injury derailed his season. Among qualifying receivers, Collins has been third and second in YPRR in the past two years. Entering his age 26 season, he is the clear cut WR1 and the offense simply has to run through him. Though there are still questions surrounding Houston’s Oline, a new scheme under Nick Caley may give this unit a boost. For some similar reasons, I want some stock in CeeDee Lamb. After putting up over 1,700 receiving yards in 2023, Lamb’s stats took a hit due to Dak Prescott missing more than half the season. He was still able to muster over 100 recs and nearly 1,200 yards. With a healthy Dak, and the addition of George Pickens, who’s strengths should complement Lamb’s, I’m buying the upside for Lamb. Though the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer has been seen as underwhelming, I’m a bit more optimistic that some continuity for Lamb and company might not be a bad thing.

For RBs, I want a bell cow on a good offense. Derrick Henry is a cross-off given the potential for a slightly lighter workload and the fact that no skill position player over 28 has won this award. On a similar note, I’ll have to pass on CMC for this award given age and injury history. I like Bijan Robinson (16/1) the best. Despite seemingly being handcuffed to Tyler Allegier, Robinson still accounted for 61% of ATL’s rushing attempts (8^th highest in the league), was 6^th in target share among RBs and 2^nd in routes run. Part of my interest in this bet is the belief that ATL’s offense might take a step forward with Penix as their full-time QB. Robinson also gets the benefit of running behind one of the better offensive lines in the league. I’ll take a shot at a tier one RB on an offense with some sneaky upside.

Longer Shots: Brian Thomas JR (35/1) and Bucky Irving b(50/1) are my favorite longshots. In his rookie season, BTJ already showed flashes of elite level play, ending the season with the third most yards in the league and ranking 8^th in YPRR despite playing without Trevor Lawrence for 7 games. The departures of Evan Engram and Christian Kirk open up a ton of opportunities for BTJ, as those two accounted for 42% of all targets in 2024. The addition of Liam Coen and Travis Hunter gives this offense a ton of potential upside that is worth betting on. 

Pick an advanced stat for rushing, and Bucky Irving was in the top 10 in 2024. The highlight plays and explosiveness were on display throughout the season, both in the run and pass game. Despite only getting 43% of TB’s rush attempts and having fewer targets than running mate Rachaad White, Irving still finished 10^th in rush yards and 9^th in receiving yards among RBs. The departure of Liam Coen and TB’s continued dedication to trotting out White make me a little nervous here, but Irving’s potential upside makes for a fun longshot.

I’ll also add here that I think Brock Bowers is priced way too long at 60/1. After just breaking the rookie receptions record with terrible qb play, he gets a decent upgrade with Geno Smith and potential offensive scheme upgrade. Going back to 2000, a TE has never won this award but the talent is just too much to ignore. He’d need to put up the best TE season in NFL history, though I actually think that his ceiling is just that high.  

Coach of the Year

Profile of Winners: We nailed Brian Daboll as COTY in this preview back in 2022 and again last season we hit Kevin O’Connell at 28-1. Lets see if we can get there again. The general formula for previous winners has been to be a coach of a team with lower expectations who exceeds these expectations significantly. With that said, of any award, COTY is the most narrative driven so it’s important to monitor this market throughout the season. For example, Stefanski and Vrabel wouldn’t have fit the profile of a winner prior to the season but had unique circumstances that ended up creating a nice narrative that voters could latch onto, mainly injury-riddled teams who still won double digit games and made the Playoffs. Those injury-related sort of narratives are impossible to predict prior to a season so instead we need to latch onto the data that is currently available to us.

• 20 of the last 21 winners ended the season with 10 or more wins, and all 20 had nine or more. Brian Daboll’s Giants accounted for the sole 9-win team in 2022 but as I said prior to the season when picking him as my winner, leading a New York-based team helps give that coach an edge. 14 of the last 15 winners came from teams with 11 or more wins.

• The average preseason win total of the last 24 winners is 7.7 wins and no winner in the last 17 years came into the season with a win total of greater than 9.5. Belichick in 2007 (11.5) is the last outlier in this case. None of the last 17 winners’ preseason win totals ranked inside the top 10 for that season. Every single year, I scream about how analysis is tailored to the coaches on teams with the highest win totals as potential winners of this award and every single season they come up short. Expecting to be a very strong team is a major negative in winning this award.

• 13 of the last 14 winners came into the season on a team that were underdogs to make the Playoffs. Mike Vrabel in 2021 was the only favorite coming into the season and won it due to facing major injuries during the season and securing the #1 seed in the AFC. Since 2006, the average Playoff odds for these coaches has been +221 and a median of +230.

• The last 24 winners came on teams who improved their number of wins by 5.6 games season over season.
• No coach in the last 24 years has won this award with a win total that was more than 4.5 games higher than their prior year wins. Jason Garrett in 2016 won the award on a Dallas team with an 8.5 win total after winning four games the prior season. Meaning, coaches on teams already expected to see inflated wins from the prior season get discounted more often since those teams were expected to see a big jump. The goal is to find the team with an unexpected increase in performance year over year. It doesn’t happen very often but Andy Reid in 2013 came in 2^nd even though KC jumped from two wins to 11 wins in one season. Their preseason win total closed at 7.5, a big 5.5 game jump from prior year in anticipation of a much better season.

TA: My top pick is Jonathan Gannon from the Arizona Cardinals (20-1 DK). I have Arizona winning 10+ games and making the Playoffs with a solid chance to win the NFC West for upside. He did an excellent job guiding this Cardinals team with lackluster talent from a four-win team to eight wins and a contender for the division a season ago. This offseason, the team added potentially six new defensive starters and returns every offensive starter to a top 10 offense. Arizona’s eight wins looks a lot better considering they faced a top five most difficult schedule, including eight games vs playoff teams. Ben Johnson and Mike Vrabel are the obvious top candidates but their prices are way too low and both teams are very trendy to exceed last year’s wins. Not only do they need to clear an already inflated win total but they need to likely win 10 games to win this award. I have a good amount of exposure on Atlanta but Raheem Morris is another candidate at a long price that makes sense as a good option as well.

Picksix Analysis: While Ben Johnson fits the profile of a typical winner, there is just no way I betting him in the preseason at 6/1. Mike Vrabel is also not a bet at price. If the Patriots succeed, it will likely be because Drake Maye takes a big step forward in his development and I don’t see Vrabel getting the credit in that scenario. Just based on historical profile, you can cross off most of the bottom of the board along with coaches whose teams have win totals of 9 or more. Mike MacDonald and Jim Harbaugh are cross-offs as their best chances to win were last year and in the case of Macdonald, we’ve already seen the Sam Darnold reclamation project. Voters want novelty for this award. Brian Callahan fits the profile, but the Titans’ success is likely contingent on Cam Ward’s play. Similar to Vrabel, I’m not sure Callahan gets the credit if the Titans hit their upside. We already saw a rookie QB play way above expectations (Daniels) last year, and Dan Quinn still only got 1 first place vote. Aaron Glenn and Kellen Moore both fit the profile of winners, so I wouldn’t blame someone for considering them.

Both Liam Coen (14/1) and Pete Carroll (17/1) perfectly fit the profile of winners as they are underdogs to make the playoffs with low win totals. They each have narratives that voters could latch onto. Coen could be responsible for finally being able to elevate Trevor Lawrence to the next tier of quarterbacks. Pete Carroll would get a ton of credit if the Raiders could get a playoff birth.

Longer Shots: People aren’t going to like this but I think I’m in on Brian Schottenheimer (30/1) is at least worth considering if you really want a longshot. I know that this hire was underwhelming given the yearly expectations for the Cowboys and that this pick is pretty unsexy. But the reality is that if the Cowboys are good, Shotty would be the primary catalyst as the roster is much the same as last year. Shotty showed at times a penchant for wanting to throw the ball more in Seattle, though this was likely tempered by Pete Carroll. I believe the Cowboys will be more pass heavy this year, and there’s a chance that his familiarity with Prescott serves the Cowboys well. The Cowboys are in that sweet spot of win totals for COY (7.5) and a dog to miss the playoffs in a tough division. A division win, or a convincing playoff birth would put him in the conversation.

Defensive Player of the Year

Profile of Winners: DPOY is generally given to well-established, elite defensive players. You need pedigree to win this award, and you also need to play on a good team:

• 9 of the last 11 winners have been defensive linemen. Since 2000, just six defensive backs have won the award, including last year’s winner Patrick Surtain. A linebacker hasn’t won the award since 2013.

• 10 straight and 15 of the last 16 winners came on teams that made the Playoffs. 18 straight winners have come from a defender on a team with at least nine wins that season.

• The average preseason win total for DPOY winners has been 8.8 since 2007 and only Surtain (5.5) and Aaron Donald in 2017 came from a team with a preseason win total of less than 7.5 (6). Surtain’s Denver team was the lowest preseason win total for any DPOY winner since 2000.

• Since 2000, there has been one player to win DPOY twice (Ray Lewis), and two players who have won it three times (Watt, Donald). Donald and Watt both one it in back-to-back years.

• Counting stats matter a lot for this award. Of the last 10 defensive linemen to win, all had at least 11 sacks. Of the last nine defensive lineman to win this award, all generated at least 8.5 sacks the season prior to winning.

• Since 2000, the average age of first-time winners when entering the season is 27 and only three players have been younger than 25. 15 straight and 22 of the last 25 winners have been 29 or younger.

• Of the 20 unique winners since 2000, 16 have been first round draft picks. The last 14 winners (including repeats) have all been former first round picks.

• Three straight winners have come from defenses that snuck up on the league and ranked 16^th or worse in EPA the prior season. Myles Garrett’s Browns and Surtain’s Broncos ranked 25^th in EPA the season prior to winning the award.

• Three straight and five of the last six winners came from defenses that ended that season ranked #1 in EPA.

• A rookie has never won this award

TA: I will be upfront; I am not great at finding winners of this award historically. There does not seem to be many surprises and the ones that end up hitting like Surtain last season, are at positions that rarely win.  I realistically think Micah Parsons is priced correctly as the favorite, Aidan Hutchinson is asking a lot to come back from that injury and immediately dominate again and Myles Garrett is on a team likely to be drafting inside the top five next season. For the price, I’d go with one of Nick Bosa at 20-1 at DK (13-1 at FD), Jared Verse at 15-1 or Will Anderson at 16-1. All I think are fair prices for big sack getters on Playoff level teams. I’ll hitch my wagon to Bosa who ranked 3^rd among Edge Rushers last season in pressure rate (16.4%) but who is the only one of the top guys with a sack to pressure conversion below pass rush average level. He was also playing banged up for much of the season. A deep long shot would be Chop Robinson from Miami who is sitting 120-1 on FD. He quietly finished 5^th among qualified Edge Rushers in pressure rate (16.3%) but only generated 12.5% sack to pressure conversion rate, well below average. He started slow but generated all seven of his sacks and ranked 4^th in pressures and #2 in hurries among all defenders from week 9 on.

Picksix Analysis: Aidan Hutchinson was on pace to likely take this award home in 2024 before a devastating injury. Nonetheless, I can’t get to him being priced this short coming off such a major injury. Micah Parsons seems more appropriate as the favorite, but you can probably just wait until closer to the season to bet him if you are interested. I’ll pass on T.J. Watt who struggled with injuries for much of last season and will turn 31 this season. As great as Myles Garrett is, with Cleveland a long shot to make the playoffs, I’m ok passing him up. You can pretty much cross off any DB or LB at this point in the preseason. On the outside shot a player at one of these positions becomes a candidate during the season, you’ll still be able to get them at long odds.

For DPOY, I’m searching for elite defenders, mostly Edges, on teams that have a chance to make the playoffs. Three players I am interested in are Nick Bosa (20/1), Maxx Crosby (16/1) and Jared Verse (20/1). I’m higher on the overall upside for both the Niners and Raiders defenses, and both Bosa and Crosby are in the midst of their prime with the profiles of typical winners. Bosa continued elite level play despite team struggles in 2024, while Crosby’s saw his production dip and missed some time but should enter 2025 healthy. The Raiders have an uphill battle to make the playoffs but if they do, it’s likely in part due to major contributions from Crosby.

Jared Verse took home DROY in 2024 with a dominant season. It’s not unprecedented for second year players to win DPOY as both JJ Watt and Luke Kuechly took the award home in their sophomore seasons. In 2024, Verse graded out in the top ten in pass rush grade among edge rushers per PFF and was number 1 in the league in pressures generated. Despite leading the league in pressures, he only generated 8 sacks. His sack numbers are likely to regress this season.

Longer Shots: This is generally the toughest market for long shots. As we spoke about in our weekly awards write-ups last year, the market shaped up perfectly for an outlier with the top-edge rushers either underperforming (TJ Watt) or injured (Parsons, Hutchinson, etc.). If you followed us last year, you should have had a chance to scoop up Patrick Surtain at long prices. But 2024 was an outlier year and for now I’ll hold off on any longshots and monitor the market as the season progresses.  

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Profile of Winners: Winning the OROY is all about performance but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the team needs to be good.

• 11 QBs, 9 RBs, and 5 WRs have won this award in the last 25 years. The last six winners have either been QB or WR.

• OROY winners are generally on teams with low preseason expectations. The average preseason win total of winners’ teams is seven, and 20 of the last 25 winners had a preseason win total of eight or less. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that because most OROY winners are higher first round draft picks (see below), they are generally being drafted to worse teams. Therefore, preseason win total trends for OROY may be more descriptive than predictive.

• Since 2000, the winners have played on teams who won an average of nine games, but 12 of the 25 played on teams who won eight games or fewer. Of the last 16 winners, only eight played on teams that made the playoffs. 

• Seven straight winners have been drafted inside the top 10. Only seven of the last 25 winners were non first round draft picks, and six of those seven were skill position players. Outside of Dak Prescott, all QB winners were first round picks, and all were drafted at pick 11 or lower.

TA: I don’t really love this market this season. Cam Ward is the clear favorite to me as I have the Titans as a strong sleeper team in 2025. But the number is too light and instead I would wait until after his first two games, a brutal opener in Denver and a home game against a good Rams pass rush. If they lose both games, he may get to the 10-1 range and that is where I’d grab him. For a ticket before the season starts, I will take Tet McMillan at 15-1 on DK.  He is the only true outside WR drafted high this season and should immediately be Bryce Young’s top target down the field. As for a couple of long long shots, I already have a ticket on Jags RB Bhayshul Tuten and anything 70-1 or higher is worth a look. He is an explosive RB who ran a  4.32 40 at the combine and goes to a HC in Liam Cohen who could use him in a similar manner as Bucky Irving a season ago in Tampa. Travis Etienne seems to be on his last leg there and with a new regime, the keys could get handed to Tuten sooner rather than later. As for one more extreme longshot, 150-1 on Pat Bryant, a WR for the Broncos out of Illinois stands out. He goes to a Sean Payton offense that does not have many entrenched WRs outside of Courtland Sutton right now and these mid-late round WRs seem to play well immediately for elite play callers like Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp with Sean McVay and Marques Colston with Payton in New Orleans.

Picksix Analysis: Ashton Jeanty and Cam Ward are gobbling up a ton of equity in this market and I’m not interested in betting short numbers this early. I’m inclined to wait until in season to see if there’s a better opportunity to back them. Instead, I’d be looking at the next chunk of players for value. There’s just no way I can get involved with Travis Hunter at price given the uncertainty around how his snaps will be allocated across both sides of the ball.

Tet McMillan (15/1) is worth a look. He should be the clear number one target earner on a team who in theory should improve on offense. Since 2000, 5 receivers have won this award, and 4 of 5 (excluding Percy Harvin who was a more versatile playmaker) led their teams in targets and yards. It’s not hard to envision McMillan doing that. I’d also keep an eye on reports out of Denver with regard to RJ Harvey and the Denver backfield. All offseason we heard how Sean Payton wanted his “Joker” and in theory, RJ Harvey should be the versatile back that Denver needs. He likely has a decent floor given that he is the best receiving back they have. I could see Payton carving out a similar role to that of Alvin Kamara in his rookie season, who took the award home that year. The running back room is crowded but the overall talent is not great, so there’s a chance Harvey could take on significant work.

Longer Shots: Overall, this was a weaker rookie class, and with just one QB pick in the top 20, I think this market has some opportunities for long shots and Emeka Egbuka (40/1) is one I like. The Bucs used valuable draft capital on Egbuka at pick 19 and he should get plenty of opportunities. Though at first glance the Bucs WR room looks crowded, Evans will be 32 when the season starts and Chris Godwin is 29 and coming off a major ankle injury. It’s not yet clear when Godwin will actually be available either. Jalen McMillan is just 23 but drafting Egbuka might signal the Bucs lack of faith in him. In 2025, McMillan ranked 122/152 in PFF among qualified receivers, and 111^th in YRR. Egbuka will certainly have an immediate opportunity to contribute and if the Bucs offense can at least maintain similar production, Egbuka ceiling is high.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Profile of Winners: This award is almost exclusively reserved for first round picks.

• Going back to 2000, only three winners have been DBs, and the rest were either defensive linemen or linebackers. Of the last 12 winners, eight were defensive linemen.

• Similar to OROY, DROY winners usually are on teams with low preseason win totals (average of ~7 since 2000). 15 of the last 16 winners played for a team with a preseason total of 8.5 or less. Micah Parsons was the lone exception (preseason win total of 9).

• Team success has been a characteristic of more recent winners. 10 straight winners played for teams that went over their win total and nine of the last 10 made the Playoffs. These teams exceeded their preseason win total by an average of three games.

• There have only been three winners of this award since 1989 that were drafted outside of the 1^st All three were 2^nd round linebackers. There has not been a DROY drafted outside of the top 40 overall picks since Erik McMillan of the Jets in 1988 (63). There have been 17 DE or DTs who have won this award since Hugh Douglas in 1995. All 17 have been drafted inside the top 20 of the 1^st round.

TA: Based on the pass rusher parameters (top 20 1^st round pick), Carter leads a list of seven DE/DT that qualify historically, and you can just tell that the market has the same information as discussed above and pricing is appropriate. I honestly have no idea how to properly discern which one of the pass rushers upfront are going to step up and produce to a level to win this award. Carter is clearly the most talented but he is going to maybe the worst team in the NFL and one that does already have multiple top level pass rushers in the mix as well. Carter is not a good run stopper so he may be limited to just passing downs early in the season. His price is way too low anyway right now. I will go with Mykel Williams, a pass rusher for SF at 14-1 on DK. He is opposite Nick Bosa so he should get plenty of 1-1s and is on a true Super Bowl contender and one that has Robert Saleh back in the fold as DC. There is not a ton of competition at the other pass rusher spot opposite Bosa, so Williams could produce immediately.

Picksix Analysis: Abdul Carter definitely makes sense as the favorite as he was broadly seen as the best edge rusher and one of the few blue-chip players in the 2025 draft. Still, this award has been tied to team success more recently and I’m not sure how competitive the Giants are going to be. Their strength is their pass rush but it’s difficult to envision them being in many game states where they can truly tee off on opposing QBs. I’m ok passing up on him this early on. I’m crossing off Mykel Williams for now as the recent addition of Bryce Huff makes me think he may end up in more of a rotational role. I’m also not getting involved with Travis Hunter at price given the uncertainty around his snap counts on defense. With Shemar Stewart’s contract situation completely up in the air, it’s impossible to want to get involved with him at this point.

Longer Shots: Until we get more info out of team camps, it’s hard to want to get involved in any longer shots, but I’ll be looking for edge rushers who can break in as starters on decent teams. The one longshot I’m putting in my pocket now is Walter Nolen. He fits the profile of a typical winner in that he was a first round pick and in the top 20 picks. He likely slides in as an immediate starter on a defense that has the potential for significant improvements. He faces a bit of an uphill battle in that he is a DT, but with an overall weaker board, I think there’s a path.