Zac Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons offense in 2024 will have a different look to it under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. He has served under Sean McVay since 2019, and the Rams have employed 11 personnel (3 WRs) at the highest rate in the NFL (93% in 2023), a stark contrast to the Arthur Smith era where Atlanta ranked dead last in 11 personnel usage in 2023 (15%). In 2023 under Smith, Atlanta also ranked last in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) overall and on early downs. This should bode well for WR Drake London, who not only will play in a more pass-friendly offense but will finally have a QB who can consistently make on-target throws. Despite Smith’s focus on the run game in 2023, RB Bijan Robinson still managed to rank 2nd in targets among RBs and 6th in receptions. Robinson and head coach Raheem Morris have made it clear that Bijan will be a central figure in the offense, similar to that of Christian McCaffrey.

Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers

Both head coach Dave Canales and Panthers GM Dan Morgan have openly stated they want to run the ball and they backed this up by spending important draft capital on RB Jonathan Brooks. They also beefed up a weak OL with the FA signings of Guards Robert Hunt from Miami and Damien Lewis from SEA. Canales’ offense in Tampa was around league average in PROE in 2023 but ranked 20^th in PROE on early downs. Canales pounded the run game on early downs to a fault. The Bucs ranked 32nd in success rate on the ground on both 1st and 2nd downs. The offense was consistently bailed out by 3rd down conversions by Baker Mayfield and his receiving corps. I am not sure if Canales sticks to his guns and goes run heavy on early downs if this offense can sustain any sort of success.  The usage of play action was common for the Bucs last year as well, and we should expect that he’ll employ more of that in Carolina. In 2023, the Panthers used play action at the 2^nd lowest rate in the league. QB Bryce Young saw an increase in his completion percentage, ypa and big time throw rate out of play action versus standard drop backs.

Shane Waldron, Chicago Bears

No longer under the shadow of Pete Carroll, Shane Waldron comes to Chicago with the freedom to run the offense to his liking.  In 2022 the Bears were 32^nd in PROE and 27^th in 2023. Some of that had to do with Justin Fields’ consistently taking off and running but former OC Luke Getsy wasn’t very creative on offense. However, with Waldron, QB Caleb Williams, and an array of new weapons, the Bears will pass much more this year. Waldron, who comes from the McVay coaching tree, had Seattle’s offense top ten in both PROE and play action usage in the last two seasons.

Ken Dorsey, Cleveland Browns

Make no mistake, HC Kevin Stefanski will continue to run the show on offense and just revealed that he will be calling plays in 2024. However, Dorsey’s fingerprints will be all over this offense. Dorsey replaces Alex Van Pelt who’s system did not seem to mesh with Deshaun Watson’s strengths. Dorsey likely brings with him much more of a wide open spread offense with three WRs on the field at most times. Buffalo ranked 7th in 11 personnel in 2022 and after firing Dorsey mid season last year, moved away from the spread offensive look. Expect the Browns to borrow some of the same RPO looks that Dorsey used in Carolina with Cam Newton and in Buffalo with Josh Allen, to utilize more of Watson’s athleticism and playmaking abilities. Watson has never truly looked comfortable out of the under the center style of offense with multiple TEs that the Browns incorporated under AVP.

Luke Getsy, Las Vegas Raiders

After a largely disappointing one-year stint as offensive coordinator in Chicago, Luke Getsy gets a second chance in Las Vegas. In Chicago, Getsy chose to run the ball frequently, having Chicago finish 27^th in PROE in 2023. How much of that had to do with the limitations of Justin Fields is unknown, but Getsy won’t get a quarterback upgrade in Vegas. Schematically, Getsy had the 9^th lowest usage of 11 personnel in 2023, but the 8^th highest usage of 12 personnel. Having Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers, I’d expect more of that in 2024 and both should see plenty of snaps. Las Vegas ranked 24th in usage of two TE sets and finished 31st in EPA per rush and 22nd per pass.  Getsy is also familiar with Davante Adams from their time in Green Bay and he should have Adams as a focal point of the offense as well.

Greg Roman, Los Angeles Chargers

In each of the past three seasons, the Chargers have ranked in the top ten in PROE. Enter Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, who is sure to put an end to that streak. Roman, known for his rush heavy offenses during his tenure in Baltimore, will employ a run-first offense, as the Ravens threw the ball 6% below expectations during his time. We know Harbaugh loves to run the football and his belief in building an offense from inside out was backed by LA’s selection of Notre Dame T Joe Alt in the first round. They also added two ex-Raven RBs in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins along with 6th round pick Kimani Vidal from Troy. Still, Roman never worked with a quarterback with the passing skill set of Justin Herbert in Baltimore so it will be interesting to see how Roman marries Herbert’s talents with his scheme. 

Klint Kubiak, New Orleans Saints

Klint Kubiak will take over as the OC for the Saints after spending 2023 as the passing game coordinator for the 49ers and his philosophy could be one of the most drastic changes for any team this year. He will hopefully bring over some of the staples of a Shannahan offense like much more pre-snap motion, a welcomed change to a Saints offense that ranked 31st in 2023. Head coach Dennis Allen described the new scheme as being centered around the run and play-action game, a notable difference from Carmichael’s scheme, which had the Saints dead last in play action usage in 2023. Hopefully this opens things up much more for WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who is one of the most underutilized receivers in the NFL. No offense was as stale as Carmichael’s Saints offense a season ago.

Kellen Moore, Philadelphia Eagles

Though still a top ten offense in terms of EPA per play in 2023, it was clear the Eagles scheme was missing something. Philadelphia capped off a disappointing season with a wildcard loss where they could only muster 9 points. Head coach Nick Sirianni recognized the need for change and brought in veteran play caller Kellen Moore. Jalen Hurts has reported that the offense under Moore will be 95% new, though it’s hard to imagine an offensive-minded head coach like Sirianni not having some influence on the scheme. Major changes likely include an increase in usage of pre-snap motion and a faster paced offense. Philly ranked last in pre-snap motion a season ago while Moore led the Chargers to the 9^th highest rate of motion. LAC also ranked 2^nd in terms of neutral game pace last season and likely will increase the Eagles’ offense that finished near a league average pace. They may also look to get Dallas Goedert more involved in the offense, as Philadelphia ranked 24^th in target distribution to tight-ends in 2023. In terms of similarities to last year’s offense, the Eagles will continue to rely on 11 personnel and to operate out of the shotgun to help utilize Hurt’s mobility, including giving new RB Saquon Barkley clear running lanes to make big plays. With Hurts, Barkley, Goedert, a top five OL and two #1 level WRs, Moore will have the enviable task of making the Eagles an elite offense. It’s a tiny sample but in the only three games all year last season where both WR Mike Williams and Keenan Allen played together, the Chargers averaged nearly 30 ppg and ranked 4th in EPA on offense. The offense later fell apart due to season ending injuries to both WRs and obviously Herbert.

Arthur Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers

Arthur Smith brings with him a brand of smash mouth football that meshes perfectly with the Steelers organizational identity. Smith is certain to establish a run first offense relying largely on 12, 22, and 21 personnel packages. Atlanta used 12 personnel at a league high 42% rate and ranked top five in 21 usage. This might be an ideal approach for the Steelers, who have a clear talent deficiency at the WR position and a below average QB but have continued to invest in improving their OL. The Steelers will slow the game down and rely on both Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris in the run game. The dearth of talent at WR and more heavy packages means TEs Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington will see more snaps, with Freiermuth likely to see increased targets in the pass game. Smith wasn’t afraid to use his TEs last year in Atlanta as Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for 155 targets.

Ryan Grubb, Seattle Seahawks

According to Geno Smith, the Seahawks offense will be brand new under rookie NFL OC Ryan Grubb. Grubb, who spent 2023 as OC of the high-flying Washington Huskies and QB Michael Penix, will bring with him a more modern offense to Seattle. He likely won’t pass as much as the Huskies did, but I’d expect the Seahawks to push the ball downfield quite a bit as Huskie WRs ran lots of vertical routes. DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are obvious candidates to benefit from a new scheme.

Liam Coen, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A disciple of Sean McVay, first-time NFL OC Liam Coen will look to build on the success that Dave Canales and Baker Mayfield produced in 2023. The Bucs were too run heavy on early downs considering it was the worst rush offense in the NFL on both 1st and 2nd downs. The Bucs relied on Baker to bail them out on late downs which is impossible to sustain. If Tampa wants to be successful in 2024, Coen will need to find ways to produce much more success on those early downs. Coen has said he plans to put more on Mayfield’s plate, giving him multiple play options at the line of scrimmage for Mayfield to choose from. Several players have already noted the complexity of the new offense. It’ll be interesting to see if this offense struggles out of the gate.

Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans

New head coach Brian Callahan’s fingerprints will be all over the Titans offense and he will be at the helm calling plays. The Titans will be a pass-first offense, a complete 180 compared to their offenses under Mike Vrabel. During his time as the OC in Cincinnati, Callahan relied heavily on 11 personnel (74% in 2023) and with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley to go with Deandre Hopkins, the Titans will spread the field much more often. The Titans ranked 28th in neutral game, early down pass rate while Callahan’s Bengals ranked #1 in 2023. With plenty of opportunities to throw the football, Levis’ 2024 statistical outcomes could be all over the map. They have Mason Rudolph behind him but expectations are they will let Levis sink or swim which could lead to leading the league in INTs as a potential stat prop to consider.

Kliff Kingsbury, Washington Commanders

Kliff Kingsbury brings his three and four WR Air Raid system to DC and will have yet another mobile QB at the helm with 2nd overall pick Jayden Daniels. The run game is almost non-existent and instead he uses lots of bubble screens as an extension of the run game. Kingsbury loves using shotgun, with Arizona top five in shotgun usage in each season he was HC. Daniels was very comfortable out of the gun at LSU, so that should be seamless. We should see a really fast paced offense that uses a ton of no-huddle. Arizona was the fastest paced team in 2020, a stark contrast to the Commanders 5^th slowest pace in 2023.