By: @Clevta and @picksixprick

Below is a preseason preview of the awards markets, including a profile of historical winners and analysis of this year’s candidates. Throughout the season, for premium subscribers, we’ll be providing updates on the awards markets, including risers and fallers and potential plays. All odds via Draftkings. 

Most Valuable Player

Profile of Winners: The profile for the MVP in recent history has been simple: be an elite quarterback and play for a team with a lot of wins.

• 11 straight and 16 of the last 17 MVPs have been QBs and those teams have averaged over 13 wins per season
• No MVP in the last 16 seasons came from a team with less than 11 wins and Matt Ryan in 2016 is the only MVP QB to win it with less than 12 wins in the last 20 years.
• The average preseason win total for MVP QBs since 2000 has been 10 wins and the median team Playoff odds has been -208 since 2007. Since 07 no QB has won MVP on a team with Playoff odds worse than +315 (Matt Ryan 2016). Ryan was the outlier in a number of categories since 2000 and outside of him, Lamar and the Ravens at +170 in 2019 is the worst Playoff odds prior to the season for an MVP winner.
• Cam Newton is the only MVP to come from a team who won less than 8 games the prior season. Carolina won only 7 games in 2014. Interestingly, the markets did respect the Panthers potential going into that season with a win total of 8.5 and +160 Playoff odds.
• For seven straight years, the winner captured the 1 seed for their team and of the last 17 QBs to win, 14 was on a team that got the 1 seed.
• Interestingly, no QB on a team with the highest win total in the preseason has won MVP since Tom Brady in 2017. In fact, outside of Brady, no MVP winner has come from a team among the top three highest win totals
• Of the last 17 MVP QBs, only six were 1st time winners (Brady 07, Rodgers 11, Newton 15, Ryan 16, Mahomes 18, Lamar 19)
• Of the 1st time winners since 1999, the average age when winning MVP was 28 years old and the oldest first-time winner was Rich Gannon in 2002 at age 37. He’s a clear outlier and otherwise in recent times, Matt Ryan at age 31 is the oldest. It’s less likely that a veteran QB breaks through to win MVP for the first time after extended years in the NFL.
• Of the last 12 MVP QBs, none generated a negative EPA per drop back in the season prior to winning. Lamar Jackson at 0.00 in 2018 is the worst EPA the season prior to winning, although it was his rookie year and he only started seven regular season games. The average EPA/Drop back of the last 12 MVP QBs has been +0.18.

Betting Board: The market has wised up over the past few years so the top ten is composed o of candidates who generally fit the historical profile, ie good QBs on teams expected to win a lot of games. Not until you reach the 20^th listed player, Christian McCaffery at 50-1, do you find a non-QB. Among the QBs at 50-1 or better, you can likely make some case for virtually any of them. I personally like Jalen Hurts and CJ Stroud among the shorter odd QBs. I think Philly will be battling for the best record in the NFC and a healthy Hurts will receive tons of credit for the success. Jalen was the MVP leader late in 2022 prior to his injury in the final few weeks and last year was near the top again mid way thru the season. Stroud looked the part last season and did so behind the most injured OL in recent history and added Stefon Diggs along with a hopefully full season of health from Tank Dell. 

I would say that Kyler Murray winning would be a major outlier considering his Cardinals win total sits at ~7 and the Cardinals are +300 to make the Playoffs. Obviously, price matters when discussing any of these things but among 181 NFL teams with pre-season Playoff odds of +250 or higher, only 11 (6%) made the Playoffs and won at least 11 games. Seven of 57 teams in that tighter band of +250 to +350 Playoff odds teams made the Playoffs and won 11+ games (12%).

I personally don’t consider Jared Goff at any number even remotely close to the current 20-1 odds betable at all. In fact, I would price him much closer to 50-1 or higher than this absurd number. There are many reasons why he is a longshot including the fact that even if the Lions win a lot of games, he will never get the credit for this offense being good. It will always land first at OC Ben Johnson, then WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and his great OL. Last season, the Lions won 12 games, he ranked 2^nd in the NFL in passing yards and 4^th in TDs yet didn’t even sniff a single vote. How much better can he even be this season to warrant consideration? This is an award voted on my humans and it will be almost impossible for Goff to generate the kind of numbers that will sway them into thinking he deserves this award. And of course, no rookie has ever won MVP so no matter how good Caleb Williams or any of the other rookie QBs might end up playing, you might as well just save your money.

Longer Shots: Everyone always wants to find longshots in the MVP market, but the MVP market is priced pretty well and it’s difficult to find an out of nowhere option. The closest versions of longshots would be Anthony Richardson and Trevor Lawrence. Richardson has the ability to generate a ton of rushing yards and TDs which would help his case a lot. Voters also love voting for shiny new toys and Richardson certainly fits. Not many are talking about Lawrence this off season, but he still is very young and has the pedigree to produce an elite season. The Jags are just barely underdogs to make the Playoffs at +130 and we are only one year removed from Jacksonville receiving a lot of Super Bowl hype.

Offensive Player of the Year

Profile of Winners: Over the past several years, OPOY has morphed into the award for the best non-quarterback, so we’ll focus mostly on skill position players (RB or WR).  

• Since 2000, 9 QBs, 12 RBs, and 3 WRs have won. However, the last 5 winners have all been skill position players, and all 3 WRs who have won have been in the past 5 years. QBs have still received votes for OPOY over the past 5 years, but the highest percentage of the votes any single QB received was 34%.
• The last 13 RB winners led the league in either rush yards, rush TDs, or both. The 3 WR winners all lead the league in receiving yards.
• The last 14 winners made the playoffs, and their teams won 10 or more games, with an average of 12 wins per season.
• The average preseason win total for the winners’ teams has been 9, with a floor of 6. Since 2000, 19 of 24 winners had a preseason win total of 8 or more. Their teams have exceeded their win total by nearly 3 wins on average.
• There have been 4 players who won twice since 2000, but 3 of those were QBs and there hasn’t been a repeat winner since 2013. The last repeat skill position player was Marshall Faulk in 2000 and 2001.
• Of the 15 skill position winners since 2000, all were 28 or younger when they entered the season with an average age of 26.
• Of the 24 winners, only 3 winners were on teams with a new head coach. All 3 were skill position players though.
• A rookie has never won this award

Betting Board: I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise but the top three finishers in voting last year- CMC, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb are the top three on the odds board to start this season. I would have no interest backing CMC for another award considering the amount of usage needed for an RB to win again and that’s hard to envision without some injury risk. CMC is already shown some chinks in his armor with injuries popping up in camp, and Shanahan has talked about scaling his workload back. Lamb is going through a contract dispute as is his QB, and as great as he is, duplicating the 135-1749-12 season from a year ago seems like a longshot. Hill is 30 years old and at some point, he is likely to lose a step. Among the top three he’s the likeliest in my opinion to win.

I would cross off all the QBs, considering how this award has turned into the best non-QB award in the last five years. I’d also eliminate any of the WRs in their 30s like Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs as well as any of the rookies like MHJ or Malik Nabers.

In my opinion, Justin Jefferson at 13-1 offers the single best value among the top competitors. We already know he is a top two WR in the NFL and just won this award in 2022. His number is depressed from the top candidates mainly due to questions surrounding the Vikings QB Sam Darnold. Quite frankly I believe that is a bit overblown. We saw poor QBs like Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens produce excellent numbers in their starts last season in this offense. In the final four games last season with multiple backup QBs, Jefferson saw double digit targets in each game and averaged 7.5 receptions, 119 yards and caught two TDs in those four games. If you prorated those numbers out for a full season (128-2023-8), Jefferson would win this award. And when you consider that TJ Hockenson is likely to miss much of the first half of the season and WR Jordan Addison could be suspended at some point, Jefferson will see a gigantic share of his team’s targets.

Longer Shots: We have seen guys like Todd Gurley and Cooper Kupp win this award as guys coming off of seasons where you wouldn’t necessarily expect it. A guy like Devon Achane at 60-1, who generated an inordinate number of highlight reel explosive plays last year, is attractive if he can maintain a high percentage of his efficiency while increasing usage. He’s likely to take on a much larger role in the run and pass attack this year and will hopefully be able to garner more rushing TD’s, many of which went to Mostert last year. From a WR perspective, I really do like the Eagles this year and think WR AJ Brown at 35-1 offers some decent value. Through the first half of the season last year, Brown ranked 2^nd among WRs in receiving yards, 3^rd in TDs and 4^th in receptions before slowing down due to injury in the 2^nd half of the season.

 

 

Coach of the Year

Profile of Winners: The general formula for previous winners has been to be a coach of a team with lower expectations who exceeds these expectations significantly. With that said, of any award, COY is the most narrative driven so it’s important to monitor this market throughout the season. For example, Stefanski and Vrabel wouldn’t have fit the profile of a winner prior to the season but had unique circumstances that ended up creating a nice narrative that voters could latch onto, mainly injury-riddled teams who still won double digit games and made the Playoffs.

• 19 of the last 20 winners ended the season with 10 or more wins, and all 20 had 9 or more. Brian Daboll’s Giants accounted for the sole 9-win team in 2022. 13 of the last 14 winners came from teams with 11 or more wins.
• 14 of the last 20 won their division.
• The average preseason win total of the last 16 winners is ~ 7.5 wins. No winner in the last 16 years came into the season with a win total of greater than 9.5, so expecting to be a Super Bowl contender caliber is a negative in this case.
• 12 of the last 13 winners came into the season on a team that were underdogs to make the Playoffs. Mike Vrabel in 2021 was the only favorite coming into the season and won it due to facing major injuries and securing the #1 seed in the AFC
• Only four of the last 20 winners had a preseason win total greater than 8.5
• The number of wins for the team increased by an average of ~5.5 games from the prior year.
• Nearly half of the last 15 winners were first year head coaches for their team

• There have been 4 coaches who won twice in the past 20 years, but no coach has ever won back-to-back.

Betting Board: I am not sure a single awards market is more inefficient than Coach of the Year. The criteria is fairly straight forward yet we get coaches listed at the top of the board who don’t fit the historical profile at all. The sweet spot is finding a coach on a team that is an underdog to make the Playoffs and on a team with a win total below 9. Bonus points for a coach that fits these criteria and is with a new team. The fact that Raheem Morris (ATL) and Matt Eberflus (CHI) represent two of the top five in the odds board and are both on teams favored to make the Playoffs and both on teams with win totals of 9 or higher just speaks to how poorly these odds reflect the likelihood of winning. In addition, Robert Saleh sitting fourth in odds at 12-1 makes no sense as well since the Jets have a double-digit win total, have strong Playoff odds (-175) and it will be Aaron Rodgers who will get all the credit if the Jets have a good season.

You can also pretty much eliminate other coaches on teams favored to make the Playoffs like Demeco Ryans and Dan Campbell. This really will likely come down to any of the newly hired coaches on teams not favored to make the Playoffs along with guys like Shane Steichen, Jonathan Gannon, Sean McVay, Sean Payton and Kevin O’Connell.

Longer Shots: I like multiple guys among the longer shots like O’Connell (20-1), Macdonald (19-1), Gannon (16-1) and Callahan (20-1). All fit the criteria I’ve discussed above. I like Minnesota and Seattle to exceed their win totals and compete for a playoff spot which lends itself to those two guys the most. This is an award that offers excellent value in season as well so it could be worth holding off on O’Connell a few weeks in after starting with a very difficult schedule.

Defensive Player of the Year

Profile of Winners:  DPOY is generally given to well-established, elite defensive players, mainly edge rushers. You need pedigree to win this award, and you also need to play on a good team:

• The last three winners have been edge rushers, and if you exclude the only DT to win this award in the last 25 years, Aaron Donald three times, an edge rusher has won this award six of the last seven years. CB Stephon Gilmore is the one non edge rusher/Donald to win this award in the last 10 years.
• 9 straight and 14 of the last 15 winners came from teams who made the playoffs. 17 straight winners of this award have come from a team winning at least 9 games, and the average number of wins since 2000 has been just under 11.
• The average preseason win total for the winners’ teams is 8.9 going back to 2000. 19 of 24 winners had a preseason win total of 8.5 or higher.
• It is very common for the winner of this award to be on an elite defense and in fact, in four of the last five years, the winner has come from a defense that ranked #1 in the NFL in EPA. In the last 23 years, only TJ Watt in 2021 (21^st), Aaron Donald in 2018 (11^th) and Khalil Mack in 2016 (23^rd) has won this award on a defense that finished outside the top 10 in EPA. 11 of the last 16 winners have come from a top three EPA defense. Watt and Mack are clear outliers in that they own the award while playing on below average defenses. Watt generated 22.5 sacks in just 15 games which made him an easy choice outside of his defense’s performance. Mack’s Raiders won 12 games in 2016, which helped supersede finishing just 8^th in sacks and Oakland’s defense finishing just 23^rd in EPA.
• Counting stats matter for this award. Of the last 10 defensive linemen to win, all had at least 11 sacks. Among the last seven edge rushers to win this award, all of them generated 10+ sacks the prior season to winning. It’s extremely rare to come out of nowhere to win this award as a pass rusher.
• Since 2000, the average age of first-time winners when entering the season is 27 and only two players have been younger than 25. 21 of 24 winners have been 29 or younger, and 14 straight winners have been 29 or younger.
• The last 14 winners (including repeats) have been first round picks in the draft.
• A rookie has never won this award

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Betting Board: DPOY is reserved for elite tier players and has recently become the “best edge rusher” award. Of the awards markets, this one is probably the worst one to look for a long shot. The top of the voting the last three years has been almost exclusively among the top names- Garrett, Parsons, Watt, Donald and Nick Bosa. In fact those five players have represented 10 of the last 12 top three vote getters in the last three DPOY voting.

The top 5 players all certainly make sense, though Maxx Crosby might be crossed off as winners are largely on good teams with double digit wins and it’s hard to see the Raiders getting there. I’m having a hard time seeing why Myles Garrett is longer than Crosby, Parsons, or Watt. Three of the last 10 winners have been repeat winners so repetitiveness is not an issue. He just won it and the Browns get 4 primetime games in the last 7 weeks of the season, giving Garrett plenty of opportunities to cement his case. Reigning DROY Will Anderson Jr. is an excellent player, but he is only in his 2^nd year and his seven sacks last year would be very well below the recent history of edge rushers generating 10+ sacks the prior year to winning.  There hasn’t been a DB who was a finalist for this award since 2020, and the Ravens would have to have an even better season defensively for Kyle Hamilton to even be remotely in consideration. Despite the Ravens brilliant season, Hamilton didn’t receive a single vote for DPOY last year and after losing their defensive mastermind in Mike MacDonald, it’s very hard to see Hamilton in contention.

Longer Shots: Instead of someone like Will Anderson, his teammate Danielle Hunter at much longer odds, 35-1, would constitute a decent long shot as long shots go in this market. Hunter has a much longer track record than Anderson and is coming off a 16.5 sack season. He has recorded double digit sacks in four of the last five years and if the Texans win the AFC South and the defense ascends into the top 10, Hunter could get the public credit for the improvement. For the price and his pedigree, he makes some sense if you want to take a stab down the board.

 

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Profile of Winners: Winning the OROY is all about performance but that doesn’t necessarily mean that your team needs to be good.

• 10 QBs, 9 RBs, and 5 WRs have won this award. The last 5 winners have either been QB or WR.
• OROY winners are generally on teams with low preseason expectations. The average preseason win total of winners’ teams is 7, and 19 of the last 24 winners had a preseason win total of 8 or lower. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that because most OROY winners are higher first round draft picks (see below), they are generally being drafted to worse teams. Therefore, preseason win total trends for OROY may be more descriptive than predictive.
• Since 2000, the winners have played on teams who won an average of 9 games, but 12 of the 24 played on teams who won 8 games or fewer.
• Of the last 15 winners, only 7 played on teams that made the playoffs.
• The average age of winners when entering the season is 22. No winner has entered the season older than 23 since 2000, with the exception of Mike Anderson who was an outlier winning it at age 26.
• 6 straight winners were drafted in the top 10. Only 7 of the last 24 winners were not first round draft picks, and 6 of those 7 were skill position players. Outside of Dak Prescott, all QB winners were first round picks, and all were drafted at pick 11 or lower.

Betting Board: Caleb Williams is the rightful favorite and has a relatively easy schedule and strong supporting cast, but I’d want no part of him at this price. Jayden Daniels has performed very well in preseason and with his legs, can create a lot of big plays for Washington. Bo Nix would be the oldest QB to have ever won this award, but he’ll certainly get the reps to at least have a chance. On the opposite end, Drake Maye is probably worth crossing off as QBs who win this award generally play the full season and there’s no clear time when or if Maye will start with bridge QB Jacoby Brissett on the roster. Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers do present the best non-QB chance to win this award. Each separately would be the clear-cut best WR in their class but they just so happen to be in the same draft class. Both offer legitimate value and are clear #1 targets outside. MHJ will get the benefit of a much better QB in Kyler Murray and with how poor the Cardinals defense is likely to be this year, he could be in a lot of shootouts and should rack up tons of volume.

Longer Shots: Brian Thomas Jr. is an intriguing option. He should get ample opportunities as the Jaguars are desperate for a true #1 WR and he has a good QB throwing him the ball. He’s flown under the radar this summer but it’s clear the coaching staff has a lot of faith in him and should soak up a lot of the deep balls from Lawrence. There are also a few guys who if there is an injury in front of them, would be a steal at current prices. QB Michael Penix would vault toward the top of the board if anything were to happen to Kirk Cousins and RB Braelon Allen is the clear #2 RB behind Breese Hall in NY.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Profile of Winners: This award is almost exclusively reserved for first round picks.

• Going back to 2000, 3 winners were DBs, and the rest were either defensive linemen or linebackers. Of the last ten winners, 7 were defensive linemen.
• Similar to OROY, DROY winners usually are on teams with low preseason win totals (average of ~7 since 2000). 14 of the last 15 winners played for a team with a preseason total of 8.5 or less. Micah Parsons was the lone exception (preseason win total of 9).
• Team success has been a characteristic of more recent winners. 9 straight winners played for teams that went over their win total and 8 of the last 9 made the playoffs.
• 29 straight DROY winners have come from a player inside the top 40 of the draft and 26 of the last 29 winners have been first round picks.
• Shaq Leonard in 2018 is the only player drafted outside of round one (36^th overall) to win this award in the last 15 years.
• No player drafted over the age of 23 has won this award

Betting Board: First round edge rushers have dominated this award in the last decade and no surprise that the top two drafted this year- Latu and Turner rank 1-2 in odds. I think Latu definitely deserves the top billing and with Samson Ebukam out for the year with an achilles injury, Latu makes a ton of sense. I do think the fact that he was drafted as such an older prospect than you typically see and will be 24 in December, tests the historical profile of this award going to younger prospects. We did see Byron Young make a strong push last year as an older prospect so it’s definitely possible. A guy I like who could make sense is Seattle DT Byron Murphy who I advocated for in my NFL Preview earlier in the summer. He should be able to rack up a good amount of sacks and gets the advantage of playing under defensive genius Mike Macdonald, who will use him similar to how he elevated the game of DT Justin Madubuike in Baltimore.

Longer Shots: Usually this is an award that only first rounders win, but because defense got pushed so far down in the draft, this year is a little different. There are four non first round long shots to keep an eye on. DE Xavier Thomas on ARI leaps up the depth chart with the season ending injury to starter BJ Ojulari and he currently leads all rookies in pressures (8) after two preseason games. Coaches are raving about him being a steal. Three other edge rushers to be considered as longshots are Jonah Ellis in DEN, Austin Booker in CHI and Marshawn Kneeland in DAL. Ellis leads all rookies in PFF pass rush grade so far with an incredible six pressures and two sacks on only 17 pass rush snaps.