2024 Masters Tournament - ClevAnalytics

2024 MASTERS TOURNAMENT BREAKDOWN

Overview: This page will take you through a variety of trends, stats and data that historically has been effective in predicting success at The Masters. Similar to last year, it’s difficult to assess the LIV players in this field as there is limited data on their performance this season. I’d mainly bank on past form for the LIV guys in this field more than anything.

Course Details

Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia

Par 72

Length: 7,545 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Weather: Will be updated next week

Historical Trends to help Predict the Winner and where last year’s champion, Jon Rahm, fit:

Every winner since 2010 has entered the Masters ranked in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Top 25 in 12 straight Masters (Rahm 3rd). Since 2017, among the non LIV players, only Dylan Fritelli (100th in 2020) and Lee Westwood (67th in 2016) finished inside the top 5 and entered the Masters outside of the top 45 in the OWGR.
15 straight Masters winners had a top 20 finish in one of their five prior pre Masters events. (Rahm won Genesis 4 starts prior)
Every winner besides Danny Willet in 2016 has come into the event ranked in the top 100 in driving distance, which is essentially tour average. This is important because Augusta plays longer than its stated yardage distance (Rahm 5th). Top players who are currently not ranked inside the top 100 include Corey Conners, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae IM, Russell Henley and Collin Morikawa.
Because of the way Augusta is shaped and the location of the greens, the ability to hit high shots and land them safely on the green, while generating enough distance is of utmost importance. Each winner since 2010 has ranked inside the top 80 in the PGA’s distance to apex stat. (Rahm 32nd)
This is not a tournament to back a player making their debut as no debutant has won the Masters since 1979. Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 is still the only debutant to win the Masters and experience is typically key. Here are some of the more recent elite players and their finishes in their debut at Augusta- Rahm: 27th, Morikawa: 44th, Speith: 2nd, JT: 39th, Fitzpatrick: Cut, Cantlay: 47th, Scheffler: 19th, Hovland: 32nd, Schauffele: 50th, Zalatoris: 2nd. So Spieth and Zalatoris are the only debutants to even finish inside the top 15 among the elites since 2015. On average, first time winners have played the event ~six times. Last year, Sahith Theegala was the highest finisher among the debutants at 9th.
Every winner since 2010 had finished in the top 40 at a prior Masters at least once. (Rahm 6 times prior). This would exclude Max Homa.
Every winner since 2010 came into the Masters ranked in the top 100 in strokes gained on approach and only three players (Willett, Sergio and Schwartzel) ranked outside of the top 44. (Rahm 4th). Viktor Hovland, Rory Mcilroy, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae IM, Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Cantlay currently rank outside the top 100.
Putting is very difficult at Augusta and is difficult for most every player. That essentially neutralizes any advantage that a great putter would have over others that struggle. To put this in perspective, two recent winners- Hideki Matsuyama in 2021 and Sergio Garcia in 2017, are notorious for struggling in putting. Matsy ranked 166th in strokes gained putting heading into the Masters, and in fact, finished the weekend 23rd among the field in strokes gained putting and still won. Sergio was 193rd in putting heading into his winning Masters season of 2017. Will Zalatoris, Corey Conners and Cam Champ all finished top 10 here in 2021 and came into the event outside of the top 100 in SG putting . In 2022, Scheffler won while ranking 13th in SG putting and last year Rahm was just 22nd in SG putting en route to his victory. It’s hard to say just totally ignore putting stats but it’s hard to put much emphasis in trying to predict who will conquer those Augusta greens.
Being able to manage around the tricky greens of Augusta are always a key factor. 12 straight champions have a positive strokes gained around the green during the year of their Masters victory. (Rahm +0.367) 11 straight winners and 12 of the last 14 ranked top 55 in strokes gained around the green in the season of their victory (Rahm 13th). Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cam Young, Corey Conners and Viktor Hovland all have negative SG around the green this season.
The key almost every year is playing well from Tee to Green. Recent winners like Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth are excellent from tee to green. In fact, seven straight and nine of the last 10 winners, have come into Masters week ranked inside the top 25 on tour in SG tee to green. (Rahm 3rd) Each of last year’s top 6 finishers finished inside the top 13 for the week in strokes gained Tee to Green.

Please don’t look at these trends above and completely eliminate any player who doesn’t fit. If there are players that you feel can perform well at Augusta , then by all means back those players. This is not to say guys who don’t fit these filters above can’t play well and be worth top 10 or 20 wagers, but if you want the historical odds on your side, they don’t possess the qualities that have predicted all recent winners. It’s hard enough to find winners in a pool of golfers but if there is consistent enough data to help filter through some of it on the high end, then it can be useful.

Not a ton of surprises as historically the Masters is a very chalky event. The guys above the line are the likeliest of the likely if you go strictly by recent Masters history. The ones below the line still fit virtually all of the historical parameters but because around the greens at Augusta are very tricky, I did make a cut off where these guys have performed well enough (+0 or below) in strokes gained ytd around the green.

Scheffler has been running roughshot over the Majors lately but we have only seen three back to back winners in Masters history so odds are low he will do it again.

Rahm started this season on fire and looked unstoppable. However he has really hit a rough patch of late and has finished 39th, W/D and 31st in his last three events.

You will notice really good players like Cantlay, Schauffele, Finau, Hovland and Zalatoris on this list. All of them have proven they can compete at Augusta but they don’t have a Major win under their belts. I wouldn’t have a problem picking any of these players on the list to win the Masters this year and it likely just comes down to personal preference.

**Of Note: The golfers who just missed:

Jason Day fits every category to win but is just outside the top 30 in the world golf rankings at 33rd. Of course no need to be so rigid with the filters to exclude him if you’d like here.

Tommy Fleetwood fits every category except is 121st in driving distance.

Cam Young fits every statistical category but missed the Cut in his only Masters appearance last year.

Matthew Fitzpatrick meets every category except is 171st in SG on approach.

Kurt Kityama meets every statistical category except is making his Masters debut.

Most Likely Top 10 Candidates:

What are the traits/qualities that are best to evaluate when trying to find golfers to place in the top 10 at the Masters?

For the last few years, I have used a classification decision tree to help best predict the likeliest top 10 finishing candidates. The idea of a classification tree is to split golfers into groups where each group has similar traits. In this case, we are looking for the characteristics of past golfers who have finished in the top 10 at the Masters. Based on the available data that I have been able to track for a number of years, I was able to build a classification tree with all golfers who finished in the top 10 at the Masters since 2017 and characteristics that specific groups share.

Using this data, my model identified 36 golfers in the field that had the highest likelihood of finishing inside the top 10 at last year’s Masters tournament. *Note: Because it was the first year where LIV golfers were going to play the Masters, and there were no season long stats for those players, I just decided to exclude them entirely. 29 of those 36 PGA golfers made the cut, and among just the 10 of the PGA golfers who finished inside the top 10 (13 total players finished inside the top 10 when LIV players are included), eight (80%) came from this group. Now you might think that these are likely the chalkiest golfers in the field but it also included Russell Henley who came in to the event 200/1 and finished 7th along with Gary Woodland at 250/1 who finished one stroke away from the top 10. 10 of the 12 PGA golfers who finished inside the top 15 last year at the Masters also came from this group. Highly ranked players like Sam Burns (10th in OWGR), Tom Kim (19th) and Billy Horschel (24th) did not meet my top 10 classification requirements. Not only did none of those players make the top 10, only Kim at 16th was inside the top 25. In the last two years that this top 10 list has been generated prior to the Masters, my model has correctly predicted 19 of the 21 top 10 finishers among the PGA participants, including four players listed 90/1 or worse in pre tournament odds to win the event. And among the seven top 25 players excluded from this list the last two years, none made the top 10 and only two even made the top 30.

Based on this classification tree, who are the most likely top 10 candidates this year? (Note: Because there is no PGA data for the LIV players playing in the Masters this week, I excluded them from this list.)

SG: strokes gained in PGA events in 2023

Consistency >0 SG Per Event: How often a player has produced positive strokes gained in that specific category so far in 2023. This is a nice metric that helps distinguish golfers who may have produced outlier performances in certain categories. the more consistent the golfer in specific metrics the more you are likely to trust them to produce at a high level.
Consistency % of Events 80th Percentile: How often a player has produced strokes gained in the 80th percentile or better in 2023. Helps measure upside and the ability of a golfer to reach an elite level in a tournament. It can also potentially find a longer shot golfer who doesn’t consistently post good numbers but can finish high when their highs are really high.

To download the data sheet below click HERE

Masters Historical Results

Results in Majors Since 2021

LIV 2023 Player Stats

TAs Personal Selections: Risked 9.5 units, Won +9.75 units

Tony Finau 30-1 (BOL) to win risking 0.2 units❌, Top 10 +200 (BOL) risking 1 unit: ❌After many near misses I believe this may be Tony’s time to finally win a major. He fits every single historical filter of a past champion, is playing very well and has played well historically at Augusta. Tony is 5/5 in made cuts at the Masters in his career, including three separate top 11 finishes. He was neck and neck in the final round with Tiger when he won it in 2019. In 2023, Finau has gained strokes on approach and tee to green in 100% of his seven starts on the PGA tour. You also have to score well on the Par 5s to win this tournament and Finau ranks 3rd on tour in Par 5 birdie or better %. Even if he doesn’t win I really like him to compete inside the top 10.

Shane Lowry 75-1 (BOL) to win risking 0.1 units❌, Top 10 +450 (Fanduel) risking 0.5 units: ❌Shane is the longest shot of the players who fit the historical categories to win this Masters. He hasn’t been playing all that great overall finishing 31st, 35th and 67th in his last three events but he clearly is capable. His main issue has been poor putting, losing strokes in all but two events all season. But as described at the top, putting is difficult at Augusta for most everyone and this event has historically been littered with mediocre to poor putters anyway. He has finished inside the top 25 in three straight years at the Masters, including a 3rd place finish a year ago. He is 17th on tour in tee to green and has been solid off the tee. If conditions become poor he has the background to play well in rain.

Will Zalatoris 50-1 (BOL) to win risking 0.2 units. Top 10 +330 (Draftkings) risking 1 unit: Betonline is the highest I see right now and Fanduel has it at 44-1. I wasn’t even expecting to grab Willy Z at all this week bc he has struggled of late but at anything above 40-1 it’s a take. How can I ignore a tee to green killer who has finished 2nd three separate times along with a 6th and 8th place finish in the last 5 majors on American soil? He ranks #1 in the entire field in strokes gained in majors since 2021. He has a 6th and 2nd place finish in two lifetime tries at Augusta. With potential soggy weather, that should help alleviate concerns on the green but it hasn’t mattered anyway in his prior Masters appearances. He is long off the tee and can pin hunt with the best of them. At this price there is no way I am missing out on his upside.

Sungjae IM top 10 +375 (BOL) risking 1 unit: ❌Sungjae fits my to win model but he is just one of those guys who competes but is never really in it at the end. But his game is excellent, he is playing well overall and he has a great Augusta track record for a top 10 play. In three prior Masters, IM has finished 2nd, 8th with a Cut sandwiched in between. The 2nd place finish was in 2020, which was played in a very wet Augusta so he does have some history of playing well in less than ideal conditions which could set up similar this year. IM is one of only 14 players in this field who have positive strokes gained per event this year in both approach and around the green shots along with a driving distance rank inside the top 100. Those metrics along with his history here has me on this top 10.

Keegan Bradley top 10 +750 (DK) risking 0.25 units❌ and top 20 +280 (DK) risking 0.75 units: ❌This is just a play on Keegan’s upside and ability to get hot with his irons. He is not a bomber but he ranks top 50 on tour in carry off the tee so he doesn’t need roll to hit it far. But his game is all about his approach prowess and his overall tee to green game (39th on tour). If it’s so wet that players will not get much of a roll on the fairway, Keegan could have an advantage with his long iron approach game.

Hideki Matsuyama top 20 +130 (DK) risking 1.5 units: ✅There really isn’t a ton of explanation needed here, it’s low hanging fruit. Hideki has made the cut at Augusta in seven straight appearances with six of those seven finishing inside the top 20. All but one (2018) was inside the top 14. It makes sense considering he is a stone cold approach killer and this course doesn’t punish poor putters. He is #4 in the field in SG tee to green in majors since 2021. He also knows the course inside and out at this point so while I don’t believe he will win, I love his top 20 floor.

Xander Schauffele to win 25-1 risking 0.3 units (DK)❌ and Top 10 +225 (DK) risking 1 unit✅: X is an old standby for me at Augusta. His game fits perfectly here and he’s had multiple near misses with a 2nd and a 3rd place finish in the last four years. Xander fits all of my metrics to win this event and his solid all around game is rewarded at Augusta. He’s 8th on tour in approach and 18th in tee to green. His bug a boo this season has been accuracy off the tee but at Augusta that isn’t a big issue. In fact, if you look at last year’s results, Rory (39th) and Cam Smith (46th) were very poor in the field in terms of driving accuracy. Hideki won the Masters in 2021 while finishing 39th in the field in accuracy so even if Xander struggles hitting fairways it shouldn’t hurt here.

First round leader- Keith Mitchell 70-1 (BOL) risking 0.1 units❌, Keegan Bradley 80-1 (BOL) risking 0.1 units❌

Gary Woodland top 20 +400 (DK) risking 0.5 units: ✅Gary is playing well this season and sits top 20 in driving distance, carry and apex to distance on his tee shots. He is also top 35 in SG tee to green. He fits my top 10 model but he really struggles around the green so if he is missing his approach shots he will have no chance here. That is why I wanted a little more cushion with a top 20 instead. He missed the cut last year bc he was awful on the greens but with the rain expected this weekend, I will hope the softer greens negate some of those issues. I also like how good he is with his long irons and will be one of the best in the field and trying to land those 200+ approach shots.

Scheffler -115 over Rory Round 1 to win 1 unit (DK):✅ just a fade of Rory who has opened 73-73-75-76 in his last four opening rounds at Augusta

Rahm to win +165 risking 1 unit (BOL)- prior to Sunday ✅

DFS/Player Pool Analysis

If you want to download the spreadsheet below click HERE

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ANALYSIS:

Overall Draftkings Tournament Strategy:

Finding the right lineup in DFS for the Masters is all about threading the needle between guys you feel good about making the cut, finishing above their expected salary slot while also being able to score birdies and eagles in bunches. It’s more valuable to score birdies and eagles than it is punitive to shoot bogeys or worse. If you are playing a large tournament then you must also be aware of projected ownership of the guys in the field and try not to be overexposed to the most popular players if you can avoid it.

As I have talked about a bunch at the top, this is a tournament catered to the elites. Try and fit as many top 45 level players in your lineup that you can since historically those are the guys likeliest to finish inside the top 10. Sprinkle in some of the cheaper, older veterans who have a history of success at Augusta. I think if you follow that strategy as much as possible, you should be ok.

Best Values:

One filter I like to run is finding players who are expected to have sub double digit ownership, top 45 in the world golf ranks, is top 100 in SG tee to green and fits my likeliest top 10 model. Based on this I get a nice group of players who could offer some value in larger tournaments. I will caution that any time you pull the trigger on a player making his debut at the Masters (Kityama and Fox) you are taking a certain level of risk. Not to say they can’t get a top 10/20 for you but you are almost certainly dead from an outright win/top 5 before it starts. Some other potential upside values from the sub $7K salary group would include Gary Woodland (bomber with lots of experience at Augusta, 17th on approach and 33rd in tee to green), Cam Champ (4th on tour in driving distance and is somehow 3/3 in made cuts at Augusta) and Adrian Meronk (56th in the world rankings, 4th in the field in SG around the green, 3 made cuts and two top 20s in his last 4 PGA events).

Most Overvalued:

If you compare odds to win this tournament versus projected ownership, the guy who stands out the most is Jason Day. I hate saying that because he has played like an elite player this season but he is being owned like one of the top players in the field. I wouldn’t say to avoid him in your lineups but just understand that you are likely not gaining enough upside with him even if he plays very well. In head to head or small tournaments, Day would be a better option in my opinion.

Likely the most overvalued players overall are two LIV guys in Cameron Smith and Brooks Kopeka. Both players have only one top 20 finish in three LIV starts this season, although Brooks did just win an event last week. But in general, while both have played well at Augusta in the past, they are being owned at rates that are likely above their true expected finishes. I don’t think adding either player into your lineup is a good idea.

At $7,600, Min Woo Lee is the highest expected owned mid tier player on the board. Fully understanding that he has played very well and has competed nicely at the Players Championship and has three top 30 finishes in the last three majors, he is being owned like he will do it again. While he finished 14th last year at Augusta, he did that purely via his putter. He finished 3rd best in the field in SG putting but only 41st in tee to green and 43rd on approach. The odds of that happening again are slim if he continues struggling from tee to green.

Pick Pool Strategy:

I know many of you play in pools where you are forced to select a golfer or golfers within different tiers. The first thing to consider, and similar to the pool strategy I’ve talked about in my March Madness previews, is the size of your pool. If you are playing in a smaller pool (<50 participants) then you can definitely be ok playing chalkier golfers. But the larger you go in pool size the likelier you will need to be contrarian in order to actually win.

Every pool is likely a bit different so I have to speak in general terms. A couple of thoughts:

If you ever get stuck on a group of players in a tier and not sure who to pick, you can just default to the player with the best odds.
As I’ve discussed over and over, doing your best to find players inside the top 45 in world golf rankings is ideal. If it’s in a tier that doesn’t include one of those guys, when all else fails pick the best Tee to Green player.
You can’t go wrong with one of the elite players for the most part. I personally would only avoid Hovland and Homa among the top guys and Burns in the 2nd/3rd tier. Obviously the goal with the players in the top two tiers is to find a winner. Use my “to win” filters at the top of the page to help guide the likeliest players to win if you need the help.
The goal with players from the 3rd tier of guys and beyond is to just find likeliest to make the cut and top 10. Feel free to use the historical masters results table above to help find veterans who have consistently made the cut. Guys like Hideki Matsuyama (8 straight made cuts at the Masters with 7 top 20 results) and Justin Rose (11 of 13 made cuts with all of them finishing inside the top 25) are decent picks with high floors.
You can use the ownership and other to win and made cut projections in the DFS table above to help decipher which players to pick from. In large pools you will want to avoid some of the 2nd and 3rd tier players with the highest expected ownership. I think there’s a decent crossover in players picked in DFS as there is in these pools.